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Conservative candidate pulls ahead in German election, according to early exit polls

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  • In Germany’s national election on Sunday, center-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz claimed victory after exit polls showed his bloc in the lead.
  • Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is heading for the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II.
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat in the election after exit polls showed his center-left Social Democrats on track to come in third place.

German voters cast their ballots in Sunday’s election, with opposition leader Friedrich Merz claiming victory. Exit polls also indicate that Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is heading for the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II.

The election came as Germany and the rest of Europe grapple with the new Trump administration, the Russia-Ukraine war and security across the continent.

Here’s the latest:

Scholz concedes defeat

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has conceded defeat in his country’s national election after exit polls showed painful losses for his party.

Scholz told supporters that «this is a bitter election result» for his center-left Social Democrats and «this is an election defeat.»

A resident casts a vote at a polling station in Berlin, Germany, on Feb. 23, 2025, during the German national election. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

Center-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz claims victory

Center-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz claimed victory in Germany’s national election after exit polls showed his bloc in the lead.

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Merz said that he was aware of the dimension of the task he faces and said that «it will not be easy.»

Merz said he aims to put together a governing coalition as quickly as possible.

Exit polls show Merz leading, AfD making big gains

German exit polls show opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservatives leading in the election, while Alternative for Germany is heading for the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II.

The exit polls for ARD and ZDF public television show Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats on track for their worst postwar result in a national parliamentary election, and expected to be in third place.

The election was dominated by worries about the years-long stagnation of Europe’s biggest economy, pressure to curb migration and growing uncertainty over the future of Ukraine and Europe’s alliance with the United States.

German exit polls show opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservatives leading in the election.

Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), casts his vote at a polling station Arnsberg-Niedereimer, Germany, on Feb. 23, 2025, during the national election. (Oliver Berg/dpa via AP)

Polls will close shortly

Polls across Germany will close at 6 p.m. local time (1700 GMT).

Exit polls are expected to be released immediately afterward.

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The candidates for chancellor will also likely address their members at parties across the country.

Pubs among 2,300 polling stations in Berlin

Citizens in the German capital are casting their votes in traditional polling stations like schools, kindergartens, gyms or retirement homes.

But there are also some unusual voting locations in Berlin, local broadcaster RBB reports, including car dealerships, restaurants and pubs.

About 2.43 million people are eligible to vote in the city.

Getting ready to count postal votes

Election workers in Munich are preparing to count postal votes by spreading pink envelopes on a big table.

Letters can be opened starting at 3 p.m. local time (1400 GMT) and the actual count begins at 6 p.m. (1700 GMT) when polling stations have closed.

Turnout is 52% hours before polls close

Germany’s election authority says 52% of eligible voters had cast their ballots four hours before polling stations close.

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The authority said the figure for turnout by 2 p.m. local time (1300 GMT) didn’t include people who voted by postal ballot. It compares with 36.5% at the same time in the 2021 election, but many people cast absentee ballots in that vote, which took place during COVID-19 restrictions.

Turnout is typically high in German elections. The final turnout figure in the 2021 election was 76.4%.

Colors of a coalition

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition was an alliance of the Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats.

The grouping is known as the «traffic light» coalition because of the combination of red, green and yellow party colors.

The colors of the parties running in Sunday’s election are black (Union bloc), red (Social Democrats), green (the Greens), yellow (Free Democrats) and blue (AfD).

The new government could be a «Kenya» coalition (Union bloc, Social Democrats, the Greens) or a «Germany» coalition (Union bloc, Social Democrats, Free Democrats).

More than 500,000 newly naturalized Germans are eligible to vote

Almost a third of the new Germans are originally from Syria. Most of them left their home countries in the last decade, fleeing war, political instability and economic hardship. In 2015-2016 alone, more than 1 million migrants came to Germany, most from Syria, but also from Afghanistan and Iraq.

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Since the last national election in 2021, the number of naturalizations in Germany has risen sharply.

For the new Germans originally from Syria, the election is weighted with extra significance. Many of them fled their country because of the civil war that followed former President Bashar Assad’s crackdown on protests calling for greater democratic freedom. He was toppled in November, but whether Syria will now become a democracy remains unclear. In the meantime, they are able to vote in multi-party elections in their new home.

How quickly will a governing coalition be formed?

There is no formal referee for the process of forming a new government, and no set time limit.

Conservative leader and front-runner Friedrich Merz has said he hopes to form a new government by mid-April if he wins.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s outgoing government will remain in office on a caretaker basis until the Bundestag elects the new chancellor.

German exit polls show opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservatives leading in the election.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz casts his vote at a polling station in Berlin, Germany, Sunday, on Feb. 23, 2025, during the German national election. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)

What is the ‘firewall’ against AfD?

Mainstream German parties say they won’t work with any far-right parties threatening democracy, a postwar stance often referred to as a «firewall.»

That includes the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Sunday’s election.

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U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Munich earlier this month said there is no place for «firewalls,» drawing strong criticism from German leaders.

‘Make Germany great again’: Far-right party could see historic gains in Sunday’s election

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party first entered parliament eight years ago on the back of discontent with the arrival of large numbers of migrants in the mid-2010s, and curbing migration remains its signature theme.

But the party has proven adept at harnessing discontent with other issues, too: Germany’s move away from fossil fuels, restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and support for Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly three years ago.

Bayern great Uli Hoeness speaks out against far right

Bayern Munich powerbroker Uli Hoeness says he would speak with any of the club’s players who support the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Hoeness, Bayern’s honorary president after more than 40 years at the forefront of the club, told Kicker magazine in an interview published Sunday that he would question any AfD-supporting player «and ask him if he still has all his tools in his toolbox.»

Hoeness previously spoke against AfD at a memorial service for Bayern great Franz Beckenbauer, arguing for the continuation of club projects that fight racism and discrimination.

«Bayern is a wonderful role model for migration and integration. More than half of our youth players have a migration background,» Hoeness told Kicker.

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Trump’s relationship with Germany

Germany’s next government will be central to Europe’s response to U.S. President Donald Trump and his assertive new administration.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz said last month that a second Trump presidency will be «a challenge.»

Far-right leader Alice Weidel has vowed to «make Germany great again» in an echo of Trump’s campaign slogan.

Thousands protested against Merz ahead of Sunday’s vote

Tens of thousands of people across Germany in recent weeks have protested against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and conservative front-runner Friedrich Merz for sending to parliament proposals for tough new migration rules that received AfD’s backing.

The demonstrators — and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel — say Merz broke «the firewall» against cooperation with anti-immigrant, far-right parties.

Merz insists his position is unchanged and that he didn’t and won’t work with the party.

Conservative leader and front-runner Friedrich Merz casts his vote in German election

Conservative leader and front-runner Friedrich Merz has cast his vote in the German election.

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Merz is the leader of the center-right Union bloc, which has by far the best chance of forming a new government.

Merz voted Sunday in Arnsberg in western Germany, just minutes after his main rival, Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He is also facing environmentalist Greens candidate Robert Habeck and far-right leader Alice Weidel in the race for chancellor.

Habeck and Weidel voted early.

Sunday’s election comes as Germany and the rest of Europe grapples with the new Trump administration, the Russia-Ukraine war and security across the continent.

Scholz votes in German election that comes after his governing coalition collapsed

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has voted in a German election that comes after his governing coalition collapsed last year.

Scholz then lost a confidence vote, forcing President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the parliament and schedule a new election.

Scholz voted Sunday in Potsdam, a city outside Berlin, and is facing opposition leader and front-runner Friedrich Merz, Vice Chancellor and environmentalist Greens candidate Robert Habeck and far-right leader Alice Weidel in the race for chancellor.

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Who is Merz, the front-runner for chancellor?

Friedrich Merz, the current opposition leader, is the front-runner in the country’s election campaign.

His center-right Union bloc is leading polls.

The 69-year-old became leader of the Christian Democratic Union after Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped down in 2021, though he joined the party decades before.

German president votes

President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has cast his vote at a polling station in Berlin, according to the German news agency dpa. He is in his second term as president and hails from the center-left Social Democratic Party.

German exit polls show opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservatives leading in the election.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier casts his vote at a polling station in Berlin, Germany, on Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025, during the national election. (Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa via AP)

The global importance of this election

Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of NATO. It will be central to shaping the continent’s response to the challenges of the coming years, including the Trump administration’s confrontational foreign and trade policies.

Leading contenders make final appeals

Merz vowed to revive the stagnant economy and defend Europe’s interests in the face of a confrontational U.S. administration. Scholz, meanwhile, insisted that he still hopes for an improbable last-minute comeback.

Who can vote?

German citizens aged 18 and up can vote. At least 59.2 million people in the nation of 84 million are eligible, about 2.3 million of them for the first time.

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Polling stations are open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time.

Exit polls will be announced and vote-counting will begin immediately after voting ends. A final official result is expected early Monday.

The candidates for chancellor

Four candidates are bidding to be Germany’s next leader in Sunday’s election.

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The candidates are incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, opposition leader Friedrich Merz, Vice Chancellor and environmentalist Greens candidate Robert Habeck and co-leader of the AfD Alice Weidel.

Polls have opened across Germany

Polls are now open across Germany in an election that could shape Europe’s response to the new Trump administration, the Russia-Ukraine war and security across the continent.

Why is Germany holding an election?

The election comes seven months ahead of schedule following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition in early November.

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It’s only the fourth time the Bundestag has been dissolved ahead of schedule following a confidence vote under Germany’s post-World War II constitution.


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Elección clave en Alemania: se imponen los conservadores con un fuerte crecimiento de la extrema derecha que obtiene el segundo lugar

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El bloque conservador formado por la Unión Cristianodemócrata y la Unión Socialcristiana (CDU/CSU) fue la fuerza más votada en las elecciones generales de este domingo en Alemania, con entre un 28,5 % y un 29 % de los sufragios, seguido por la ultraderecha de Alternativa por Alemania (AfD), con entre un 19,5 % y 20 %, con lo que casi duplicó su voto en comparación con los comicios legislativos de 2021, según sondeos a pie de urna divulgados por las televisiones públicas ZDF y ARD.

Terceros estarían los socialistas con un 16 por ciento y cuartos los verdes con poco mas del 13 por ciento.

Friedrich Merz, jefe de los conservadores que encabezan las elecciones legislativas, dijo que quiere formar un gobierno «lo más pronto posible» para actuar frente a los desafíos internacionales del momento

«El mundo exterior no espera tampoco largas negociaciones de coalición (…). Debemos ser operativos para hacer lo necesario en el plano interior, para volver a estar presentes en Europa», afirmó.

La incógnita se mantiene sin embargo con respecto al partido liberal FDP, que habría obtenido entre el 4,9 % y un 5 %, y la fuerza populista de izquierdas Alianza Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), que habría logrado ente un 4,7 % y 5 %.

Para entrar en la Cámara Baja se requiere un 5 %.

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La ultraderechista Alternativa para Alemania (AFD) sería por tanto la segunda fuerza política en el país centroeuropeo y logra un resultado histórico en comparación con el 10,4 % de los votos que obtuvo en las elecciones legislativas de 2021.

«Es un gran día para Alemania, y para Estados Unidos bajo el liderazgo de Trump. Felicidades a todos». Así lo afirmó el propio presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, en su cuenta de la red social Truth, comentando el resultado de las elecciones en Alemania.

«Parece que el partido conservador en Alemania ha ganado a lo grande. Al igual que en Estados Unidos, los alemanes están cansados de la política sin sentido, especialmente en energía e inmigración, que ha prevalecido durante muchos años. Es un gran día para Alemania y para Estados Unidos bajo el liderazgo de un señor llamado Donald Trump. Enhorabuena a todos, vendrán muchas más victorias», dijo el líder de la Casa Blanca.

Los sondeos a pie de urna ofrecen así pocas sorpresas, pero todo dependerá ahora si FDP y BSW entran en el ‘Bundestag’ o Cámara Baja, pues de ello depende qué tipo de coalición podrá formar el líder de los conservadores, Friedrich Merz, quien sería el próximo canciller.

Según el sondeo de ARD, que deja fuera a los liberales y al BSW, sería posible una gran coalición entre conservadores y socialdemócratas, al sumar entre los dos 327 escaños de 630 que compondrá la Cámara Baja.

Sin embargo, según la segunda cadena ZDF, tendría que haber al menos un tripartito.

Los comicios dotarán a la primera potencia europea de nuevos representantes legislativos, que deberán afrontar los desafíos que sacuden su modelo de prosperidad e inquietan a la población.

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«Estamos atravesando un período muy incierto», señaló Daniel Hofmann, un urbanista de 62 años, a la salida de un colegio electoral en Berlín.

El país necesita «un cambio, una transformación», declaró el hombre, que afirmó estar preocupado por la «seguridad europea» en el contexto de la guerra en Ucrania.

El próximo gobierno se enfrentará a la recesión económica, las amenazas de una guerra comercial con Washington, así como la puesta en duda del «paraguas» estadounidense sobre el que contaba Berlín para garantizar su seguridad.

«Envíen una señal a favor de un cambio político urgente y necesario», escribió en X el líder del grupo conservador CDU/CSU, Friedrich Merz.

El favorito

Merz, un exabogado de negocios de 69 años, es el favorito para suceder al actual jefe de gobierno socialdemócrata, Olaf Scholz.

El presidente del partido Unión Demócrata Cristiana (CDU) y candidato a canciller, Friedrich Merz (centro), sale de su puesto de votación. Foto EFE

Los últimos sondeos le otorgan un resultado cercano al 30%, por lo que necesitará aliarse con al menos otro partido para formar gobierno.

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El líder conservador, visiblemente tranquilo, votó en Arnsberg, en el oeste de Alemania, mientras que su rival socialdemócrata, con rostro más serio, lo hizo en Potsdam, cerca de Berlín.

A las 14H00 (13H00 GMT), la tasa de participación nacional era del 52%, mucho mayor a las de los anteriores comicios de 2017 (41%) y de 2021 (36,5%).

Para Reinhardt Schumacher, que acudió a votar en Duisburgo, en el oeste industrial de Alemania, el ascenso de AfD «es una señal de alarma. Algo tiene que cambiar».

Este jubilado de 64 años se niega a votar por este partido «demasiado radical», pero señaló que no hay que «ignorar» las motivaciones de sus votantes.

La formación antiinmigración y prorrusa impuso sus temas durante la campaña, que se desarrolló en un clima tenso, pautado por varios ataques mortales llevados a cabo en las últimas semanas por extranjeros en el país.

El último se produjo el viernes. Un joven refugiado sirio es sospechoso de herir gravemente a un español en el Memorial del Holocausto en Berlín. Según las autoridades, quería «matar judíos».

También influyeron en la campañas los decretos y declaraciones del presidente estadounidense Donald Trump y la injerencia de su entorno a favor de la extrema derecha.

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El vicepresidente estadounidense JD Vance y el multimillonario Elon Musk, asesor de Trump, apoyaron a AfD, aumentando la visibilidad del partido de extrema derecha.

«íAfD!», volvió a publicar Musk el sábado por la noche, en un mensaje acompañado de banderas alemanas.

Las elecciones anticipadas se celebran además en la víspera del tercer aniversario de la invasión rusa de Ucrania, vivida como un shock en Alemania.

El conflicto puso fin al suministro de gas ruso y el país acogió a más de un millón de ucranianos. La perspectiva de una paz acordada entre Estados Unidos y Rusia «a espaldas» de Ucrania y de los europeos es otra de las preocupaciones.

Las distintas fuerzas políticas alemanas seguramente deberán formar una coalición para gobernar, lo que podría tardar semanas o meses.

Para ello, el bloque conservador CDU/CSU, que excluyó aliarse con AfD pese a un acercamiento parlamentario durante la campaña en el tema migratorio, deberá dirigirse al partido socialdemócrata (SPD).

La formación del canciller Scholz quedaría en tercer lugar, con un 15% de los votos según los sondeos, lo que supondría su peor resultado de la posguerra y marcaría posiblemente el final de la carrera política del actual gobernante.

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Pero antes, Scholz tendrá que asegurar la transición.

«Espero que la formación del gobierno esté terminada para Pascua», es decir el 20 de abril, dijo Friedrich Merz, un objetivo difícil de alcanzar si los dos partidos tuvieran que buscar un tercer socio.

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