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Nuevo gobierno en Bolivia: un giro en la economía boliviana, forzado por una crisis estructural
Bolivia se encamina a un nuevo ciclo económico tras 20 años de estatismo en el poder, un cambio reflejado en el actual proceso electoral e impulsado por la necesidad de resolver la crisis en el país, que a septiembre acumula una inflación de 18,33 % y cuya deuda externa hasta agosto llega a 13.741,7 millones de dólares, un 23% del PBI.
El cambio del modelo económico defendido por los Gobiernos del hoy oficialista Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) es inminente, pues así lo requiere la urgencia del día a día, algo que fue propuesto -aunque con distintos matices- por ambos candidatos en la contienda electoral que concluyó ayer. El giro implica no solo reducir el Estado sino además acudir a financiadores como el FMI, evitado históricamente por el MAS.
El Gobierno de Luis Arce, que entregará la Presidencia el próximo 8 de noviembre, tuvo desde 2020, cuando llegó al poder de la mano de Evo Morales, un fuerte protagonismo estatal, que continuó hasta los comicios actuales pese a que sus detractores afirman que está agotado. Arce aseguró recientemente que dejará una “economía estable”, con control inflacionario y sostenibilidad fiscal, pese a un contexto externo adverso y a lo que las actuales autoridades nacionales denuncian como un “sabotaje político” desde el Legislativo.
Los críticos del Gobierno no coinciden con esto y mencionan, por ejemplo, el déficit comercial de 579,8 millones de dólares acumulado entre enero y agosto, o la inflación de 18,33 % en los primeros nueve meses del año que supera el 7,5 % proyectado para todo 2025. El saldo de la deuda externa hasta agosto es de 13.741,7 millones de dólares, el 23,1 % del PIB del país, y las reservas internacionales netas (RIN) llegaron a 3.275 millones hasta septiembre.
El reporte del descenso de las reservas a principios de 2023 coincidió con la persistente falta de dólares en la economía boliviana, a lo que se suman los recurrentes problemas de abastecimiento de combustibles por los que en los últimos días nuevamente se formaron largas filas de vehículos que buscan gasolina o diésel.
Aunque el gobierno saliente proyectó para este año un crecimiento económico de 3,51 %, pero organismos como el Banco Mundial (BM) auguran a Bolivia un decrecimiento de 0,50 %.
El gerente general del Instituto Boliviano de Comercio Exterior, Gary Rodríguez, recordó que en 2006 “se proclamó el fin” de la llamada “época neoliberal” que en su momento permitió “sacar a Bolivia” de la “hiperinflación y la recesión” experimentadas a principios de la década de los años 1980.
“La necesidad de resolver la crisis que vive hoy el país abre la posibilidad de cambiar el modelo del Estado plurinacional, luego de 20 años de experimentar un ‘proceso de cambio’ que funcionó mientras el país se benefició del auge económico mundial, por los altos precios para las materias primas que exportaba”, dijo Rodríguez a EFE. Uno de esos productos fue el gas natural, pero la declinación de su producción en los últimos años “convirtió a Bolivia en un importador nato de diésel y gasolina, con la complicación de que, al exportar cada vez menos” gas, importar más líquidos y “reducirse las reservas netas al mínimo, no tenía ya los suficientes dólares para hacerlo, trastocándolo todo”, indicó.
Rodríguez consideró que el ganador del balotaje recibe un país “con alta inflación y recesión económica”, es decir, con “estanflación”, por lo que consideró que uno de los temas prioritarios para el próximo Gobierno será “normalizar la provisión de combustibles”. Lo siguiente debe ser “conseguir dólares para cumplir con el servicio de la deuda y las necesidades de importación, controlar la inflación para evitar una eclosión social e incentivar la creación de empleos de emergencia”, agregó.
A su juicio, también será importante “un cambio de visión y actitud en la población”, pues “mucha gente se ha acostumbrado a vivir del Estado por casi 20 años”, o a esperar que el gobierno solucione sus necesidades. “Este cambio tendría que ver con que el Estado dé las condiciones necesarias para que los ciudadanos sean los verdaderos actores del desarrollo y un cambio que tenga que ver con el funcionamiento del mercado, y no del Estado, como ocurrió por 20 años”.
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Did they get him? Khamenei’s fate remains unknown after Israel strike levels his compound
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As the smoke was still clearing over Tehran, one question dominated the region and Washington alike: Did they get him?
In the immediate aftermath of the Israel-U.S. strikes, with the Israeli Air Force targeting senior Iranian leadership infrastructure, rumors swirled that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, had been killed.
Satellite images showed heavy damage to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fortified compound, including buildings believed to house his residence and the so-called House of Leadership. Parts of the complex appeared reduced to rubble.
Regional reports indicated a high-level meeting of Khamenei’s top lieutenants may have been underway when the strike hit. Iranian semi-official media also reported missiles struck near the presidential palace and other leadership sites north of the capital.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei makes first public appearance in weeks with fresh U.S. threats. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader Credit/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Addressing the nation on Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in Hebrew, «There are more and more signs indicating Khamenei is gone.»
Israeli officials told Fox News Digital they were still assessing the results and said it was too early to confirm the fate of the 86-year-old supreme leader. They did not rule out the possibility that he was killed.
Iranian officials, however, insisted the country’s leadership — including Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian — remained safe, according to The Guardian, despite what they described as an assassination attempt. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the BBC that he was not in a position to confirm whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been eliminated.
IRAN FIRES MISSILES AT US BASES ACROSS MIDDLE EAST AFTER AMERICAN STRIKES ON NUCLEAR, IRGC SITES
In this picture released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stands as army air force staff salute at the start of their meeting in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Feb. 8, 2019. Khamenei is defending «Death to America» chants that are standard fare at anti-U.S. rallies across Iran but says the chanting is aimed at America’s leaders and not its people. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)
The long-serving cleric has survived decades of internal unrest, assassination plots and foreign pressure. He rarely appears in public without layers of security and is believed to operate through a tightly controlled network of loyalists embedded across Iran’s military, intelligence and political institutions.
In an exclusive Fox News Digital report earlier this week, researchers described how Khamenei runs what amounts to a parallel state within Iran’s formal government structure.
«The Bayt is the hidden nerve center of the regime in Iran… it operates as a state within a state,» Kasra Aarabi, director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital.
IRAN COULD ‘ACTIVATE’ HEZBOLLAH IF US TARGETS REGIME, TRUMP’S INNER CIRCLE TO DECIDE: EXPERT
Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Even if Khamenei himself were removed, Aarabi warned, the institutional machinery he built — involving roughly 4,000 core staff and a broader network of tens of thousands — could continue functioning.
«Even if he is eliminated, the Bayt as an institution enables the Supreme Leader to function,» Aarabi said. «Think of the Supreme Leader as an institution rather than just a single individual.»
That reality complicates the picture.
For decades, Khamenei has positioned himself not merely as a political leader but as the apex of a system designed to survive shocks — whether from protests at home or military pressure abroad.
The 86-year-old cleric has faced repeated waves of unrest, including mass protests in 2009, 2022 and again in early 2026. Each time, his regime cracked down forcefully, consolidating control rather than fracturing.
He has also weathered years of covert operations, cyber campaigns and targeted strikes against key Iranian figures across the region.
Still, the scale of the latest strike appears unprecedented.
If confirmed dead, Khamenei’s killing would mark the most significant decapitation of Iranian leadership since the 1979 revolution. It would also raise immediate questions about succession inside a system he carefully engineered to avoid sudden collapse.
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A person holds an image of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranian demonstrators protest against the U.S.-Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 28, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
If he survived, it would reinforce his reputation for resilience — and underscore how difficult it is to eliminate the core of Iran’s power structure.
For now, officials say assessments are ongoing, and the question may be answered in the very near future.
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Irán afirma que cerró el estratégico estrecho de Ormuz, en un paso audaz que incendia aún más la región
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Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, both progressive «Squad» members, lashed out at President Donald Trump on Saturday in response to his decision to strike Iran.
«Trump has launched an illegal regime change war,» Omar posted on X. «As someone who has survived the horrors of war, I know military strikes will not make us safer; they will inflame tensions and push the region further into chaos.»
Omar, who fled Somalia as a refugee as a young child, added, «When we abandon diplomacy, we choose destruction.»
Tlaib reacted on social media to a clip of Trump acknowledging that there may be American casualties in this attack.
Rep. Ilhan Omar, with Rep. Rashida Tlaib at her side, speaks at a press conference. (Renee Jones Schneider/Star Tribune via Getty Images)
«He doesn’t care about our loved ones in the military,» Tlaib posted on X in a message that was reposted by Omar. «He doesn’t care about the fact that Americans don’t want this war.»
«He doesn’t care about the Iranian people. He is corrupted. Don’t fall for the lies.»
Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York also slammed President Donald Trump for abandoning diplomacy in favor of launching an attack against Iran, predicting the outcome will be «catastrophic.»
«The American people are once again dragged into a war they did not want by a president who does not care about the long-term consequences of his actions. This war is unlawful. It is unnecessary. And it will be catastrophic,» Ocasio-Cortez said.
«Just this week, Iran and the United States were negotiating key measures that could have staved off war. The President walked away from these discussions and chose war instead. President Trump flippantly acknowledged the possibility of American casualties, stating ‘that often happens in war,’» she continued. «Mr. President: this was not an inevitability. This is a deliberate choice of aggression when diplomacy and security were within reach. Stop lying to the American people.
Democratic Rep. Greg Casar, another progressive House member associated with the informal «Squad» group, called Trump’s actions an «illegal war» in a post on X.
«Yet again, an American president is sending other people’s kids to risk their lives in a senseless regime change war,» Casar said.
The U.S. and Israel launched the joint attack just after 9 a.m. local time in what the Pentagon has dubbed «Operation Epic Fury.»
IF KHAMENEI FALLS, WHO TAKES IRAN? STRIKES WILL EXPOSE POWER VACUUM — AND THE IRGC’S GRIP
In video remarks posted to Truth Social, Trump addressed the Iranian people directly and told them to «seize control of [their] destiny.»
«The hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,» Trump said. «This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No President was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a President who is giving you what you want.»
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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
While Trump focused some of his message on empowering the people of Iran, he stated that the intent of the operation is to «defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,» which he described as «vicious» and «very hard, terrible people.»
Trump also said that while there may be American casualties as a result, the mission is «noble» as it is aimed at stopping a «wicked, radical dictatorship» from threatening American national security interests and destabilizing the Middle East.
Fox News Digital’s Michael Sinkewicz and Alex Nitzberg contributed to this report
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politics,iran,ilhan omar,rashida tlaib
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