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As Trump’s standoff with Maduro deepens, experts warn the next move may force a showdown
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Absent direct military action, President Donald Trump is running low on options amid his standoff with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to experts.
Strikes near Venezuelan waters aimed at drug traffickers, sanctions and a $50 million bounty have so far been unsuccessful in forcing Maduro, whom the U.S. has designated as a leader of the Tren de Aragua drug cartel, to step down from power.
After repeated threats, adversaries may now view a lack of direct military action as a sign of weakness from the U.S. But Maduro is in an equally difficult position — his own military capabilities are dwarfed in comparison to Trump’s, and experts say China and Russia lack the will to directly challenge the U.S. in its own hemisphere.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking: Trump’s unprecedented military buildup in the Caribbean — including sending the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the region — is taking away resources from other theaters.
WASHINGTON’S SHADOW WAR: HOW STRIKES ON CARTELS THREATEN TO COLLAPSE MADURO’S REGIME
Navy deploys USS Gerald R. Ford and robotic vessels for anti-drug mission in Latin America. (Jonathan Klein/AFP via Getty Images)
Katherine Thompson, a senior fellow in defense and foreign policy studies at the libertarian think tank the Cato Institute, said that there are very few tools left at Trump’s disposal to oust Maduro, aside from a targeted strike against the Venezuelan leader or a land invasion.
While the White House has not directly said that it is seeking regime change, recent media reports indicate that Trump and Maduro have spoken about the Venezuelan leader departing his post.
Thompson noted that previous efforts to squeeze out Maduro, including imposing sanctions on Venezuela and backing opposition leader Juan Guaidó during Trump’s first term, have proven unsuccessful.
«It does not seem like there is — outside of the military option — anything new on the table that hasn’t really been tried,» Thompson said.
Even so, Thompson cast doubt on whether military action would prove successful.
«If the offer on the table from the Trump administration is we’re going to potentially execute an invasion unless you talk to us, perhaps that’s a strong enough diplomatic, strategic move that gets Maduro to capitulate,» Thompson said. «But it just doesn’t seem like we’re picking up that many signals from the Maduro regime that that is going to be palatable.»
Meanwhile, Thompson said that adversaries like Russia and China are probably confused about why the Trump administration has fixated on the Maduro regime, which doesn’t jeopardize U.S. interests as much as other actors, when the Trump administration has adopted an «American First» mantra.
«I imagine for them, it’s probably a bit puzzling, if they’re looking at it through a real, brass tacks, realist lens, why this administration would be prioritizing ousting the Maduro regime, as opposed to conflicts in other theaters,» Thompson said.
U.S. strikes on drug boats near Venezuelan waters may be targeted at taking out Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. (@realDonaldTrump/Truth Social; Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)
TRUMP UNLEASHES US MILITARY POWER ON CARTELS. IS A WIDER WAR LOOMING?
As a result, the Trump administration’s actions focusing on Venezuela likely leave a bit of «befuddlement» on the part of Russia and China about how serious the U.S. is about putting American interests first, Thompson said.
She added that China may be wondering if the U.S. diverting resources, such as directing the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean, could provide an opportunity for it to invade Taiwan if the U.S. is tied up with operations in Venezuela. Multiple U.S. officials have said they believe China will be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.
Will Russia and China back Venezuela?
While there may be greater interest from China to take action within its own theater, experts agreed it was unlikely that Russia or China would actually get involved and back Venezuela should military operations between the U.S. and Caracas escalate — even though Moscow and Beijing are strategic allies with Venezuela.
Some analysts said Maduro would find himself largely isolated if Trump launched military strikes against Venezuela. Russia, still consumed by its war in Ukraine, is unlikely to offer anything beyond denunciations of U.S. action, and China, despite years of deep economic engagement with Caracas, is also expected to stop well short of military involvement, they said.
From Moscow’s perspective, there is both ideological and strategic discomfort with an American intervention — but little appetite or capability to counter it.
«Moscow opposes unilateral U.S. military intervention, especially when aimed at toppling a friendly authoritarian regime. That said, Russia lacks the will and ability to stop U.S. intervention in this part of the world should Trump decide to go that route,» said John Hardie, a Russian military analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
TRUMP GAVE MADURO ULTIMATUM TO FLEE VENEZUELA AS LAND OPERATIONS LOOM: REPORT
Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Sept. 2, 2025. (China Daily via REUTERS)
Hardie said Russia is watching Washington’s internal debate carefully.
«Analysts in Moscow interpret the internal debate in Washington over Venezuela as evidence that although Republican views on foreign policy are shifting, the more traditional, hawkish camp still retains influence,» Hardie said. «This whole episode probably also reinforces Russian views of Trump as unpredictable and impulsive, though I suspect Moscow is glad to see Trump prioritizing the Western Hemisphere over other regions more central to Russian interests.»
China’s likely response would mirror its recent behavior in other conflicts. Beijing has major financial stakes in Venezuela but has shown little willingness to risk confrontation with the United States, especially in the Western Hemisphere.
Jack Burnham, a China analyst at FDD, said Maduro should take note of how China behaved during the 12-Day War, when Iran came under intense U.S.- and Israeli-led strikes.
«If Maduro is expecting support from China, he should have had his expectations corrected by Tehran’s recent experience under fire,» Burnham said. «Despite China providing key war-related materials to Iran prior to the 12 Day War, once the conflict escalated, Beijing stood down, content to stand on the sidelines and offer statements.»
Burnham said that same pattern would likely apply now: «If American military action accelerates, look for Beijing to engage in a war of words rather than send badly needed supplies to Caracas.»
Trump’s crusade against drugs
The Trump administration has beefed up its military presence off the coast of Venezuela and has adopted a hard-line approach to address the flow of drugs into the U.S. For example, it designated drug cartel groups like Tren de Aragua, Sinaloa and others as foreign terrorist organizations in February.
The Trump administration has repeatedly said it does not recognize Maduro as a legitimate head of state, but instead, a leader of a drug cartel. In August, the Trump administration upped the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, labeling him «one of the largest narco-traffickers in the world.»
Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro brandishes a sword said to have belonged to independence hero Simon Bolivar during a civic-military event at the military academy in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)
On Sunday, Trump confirmed that he spoke to Maduro over the phone last week, after the New York Times reported that the two had talked, but declined to provide specifics on what they discussed. However, The Miami Herald reported on Sunday that Trump gave Maduro an ultimatum, guaranteeing the Venezuelan leader and his family safety — if he resigned immediately.
MADURO BRANDISHES SWORD AT RALLY AS HE RAILS AGAINST ‘IMPERIALIST AGGRESSION’ AMID RISING TENSIONS WITH US
The White House did not provide comment when asked if the Trump administration is pushing a regime change, and whether Maduro had been offered any incentives to step down. However, the officials said all options are on the table to mitigate the influx of drugs into the U.S.
«President Trump has been clear in his message to Maduro: stop sending drugs and criminals to our country,» White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement to Fox News Digital on Tuesday. «The President is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding in to our country.»
The White House did not respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital on The Miami Herald’s report.
Additionally, the New York Post reported on Tuesday that U.S. officials are discussing potentially sending Maduro to Qatar, although officials familiar with Qatar’s role in the negotiations said Maduro will not head there. It’s unclear where Maduro would flee to, and no countries have confirmed they will accept him.
Trump’s reported negotiation with Maduro comes as the strikes in the Caribbean are facing heightened scrutiny from the legal community and lawmakers.
TRUMP PUSHES PEACE IN EUROPE, PRESSURE IN THE AMERICAS — INSIDE THE TWO-FRONT GAMBLE
Venezuelan vessel destroyed during U.S. military strike off of Venezuela Sept. 2, 2025. (@realDonaldTrump via Truth Social)
While lawmakers have questioned the legality of the strikes since the beginning, the attacks have come under renewed scrutiny after the Washington Post reported on Friday that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth verbally ordered everyone onboard the alleged drug boat to be killed in a Sept. 2 operation. The Post reported that a second strike was conducted to take out the remaining survivors on the boat.
On Monday, the White House confirmed that a second strike had occurred, but disputed that Hegseth ever gave an initial order to ensure that everyone on board was killed when asked specifically about Hegseth’s instructions.
The White House also said Monday that Hegseth had authorized Adm. Frank «Mitch» Bradley to conduct the strikes, and that Bradley was the one who ordered and directed the second one.
At the time of the Sept. 2 strike, Bradley was serving as the commander of Joint Special Operations Command, which falls under U.S. Special Operations Command. He is now the head of U.S. Special Operations Command.
According to Hegseth, carrying out a subsequent strike on the alleged drug boat was the right call.
«Admiral Bradley made the correct decision to ultimately sink the boat and eliminate the threat,» Hegseth said Tuesday.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth arrives for a news conference at the Pentagon, June 22, 2025, in Arlington, Virginia. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Altogether, the Trump administration has conducted more than 20 strikes against alleged drug boats in Latin American waters, and has enhanced its military presence in the Caribbean to align with Trump’s goal to crack down on drugs entering the U.S.
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The last confirmed strike occurred on Nov. 15. Hegseth said Tuesday that although there has been a pause in strikes in the Caribbean because alleged drug boats are becoming harder to find, the Trump administration’s crusade against drugs will continue.
«We’ve only just begun striking narco-boats and putting narco-terrorists at the bottom of the ocean because they’ve been poisoning the American people,» Hegseth said Tuesday.
white house,pentagon,donald trump,venezuelan political crisis,defense
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En la Rusia de Putin, hacer chistes sobre la guerra en Ucrania o sobre religión te puede llevar a la cárcel
Ser comediante es una cuestión de riesgo en Rusia. Una broma mal calibrada sobre la guerra en Ucrania y chistes religiosos o sobre el gobierno de Vladimir Putin te pueden llevar a la cárcel.
El standupero ruso Artiom Ostanin lo sabe muy bien. Alguien lo denunció por bromear sobre Jesús y sobre un veterano de la “Operación Militar Especial”, el eufemismo elegido por el Kremlin para aludir al conflicto armado. Para Rusia, el que hable de guerra se arriesga a una temporada en una celda.
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“Hoy en Rusia, hacer chistes políticos o religiosos conlleva un riesgo real de persecución penal. No se trata de la sensibilidad pública ni de la reacción social, sino de un sistema represivo de aplicación de la ley”, dijo a TN la activista rusa Olga Romanova, directora de la ONG Rus Sidyashchaya (Rusia detrás de las Rejas).
Por qué es juzgado el comediante Artiom Ostanin
Ostanin está acusado de “incitar al odio y ofender los sentimientos religiosos». Pero también por liderar un “grupo criminal organizado”. Intentó escapar, pero fue detenido en Bielorrusia, la aliada leal de Putin. Sus abogados dijeron que fue golpeado.
La causa empezó a inicios de 2025. Alguien lo denunció por dos bromas hechas en diciembre de 2024 en un club de comedia en el centro de Moscú. En el juicio ya testificaron decenas de testigos que contaron cómo se sintieron ofendidos por las bromas. Artiom Ostanin, en el tribunal de Moscú (Foto: Cortesía/The Moscow Times)
El fiscal del Tribunal de Distrito de Meshchansky de Moscú pidió condenarlo a cinco años y once meses de prisión. El juicio seguirá el lunes.
Según el sitio opositor Mediazona, uno de los chistes involucró a un veterano de guerra, aunque jamás mencionó que había peleado en Ucrania.
La broma se sustentó en una pelea con un hombre sin piernas que se trasladaba en una patineta en el subte y se lo llevó por delante.
“Me estaba mirando como si hubiera estacionado en un espacio para discapacitados. No podría pensar en nada mejor que inclinarme y decir: ‘No vayas tan rápido’. En ese momento, una anciana se apareció detrás de mí y comenzó a gritar que estaba siendo grosero. ¿Y por qué carajo soy grosero en esta situación? Fui literalmente atropellado en el subte. El tipo fue volado por una mina, decidió tomar una esquina a toda velocidad, y de alguna manera yo soy el grosero”, afirmó.
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El chiste sobre Jesucristo es más inocente aún: “Yo solo informé a la gente. ¿Y sabes qué hicieron? Me crucificaron”, dijo Ostanin en su show. También habló sobre los abdominales de Cristo, un lenguaje que testigos en el juicio calificaron como “demoníaco”.
“La actuación contenía burla, ridículo, desacralización y una actitud cínica hacia Jesucristo”, dijo un experto que testificó en el juicio.
“Alto riesgo”
“Cualquier broma, declaración u opinión que no se ajuste plenamente a la postura oficial de las autoridades rusas puede ser motivo de persecución. Si esa broma, opinión o declaración atrae la atención de blogueros del llamado segmento ‘patriótico’, las acusaciones administrativas o penales se vuelven casi inevitables”, dijo a TN la periodista de Mediazona Daria Guskova, que cubrió la historia desde su exilio en Lituania.
Además, afirmó: “El Código Penal ruso contiene numerosas disposiciones que pueden utilizarse con este fin, desde ‘desacreditar’ al ejército ruso hasta insultar los sentimientos de los creyentes”.
Grigory Vaipan, abogado de la ONG rusa Centro Memorial Defensa de los derechos humanos, dijo a TN. “Las bromas políticas y religiosas exponen a cualquier persona en Rusia a un alto riesgo de procesamiento”.
“El gobierno ruso utiliza una amplia gama de leyes con este fin, desde aquellas que prohíben la ‘incitación al odio’ o el ‘insulto a los sentimientos religiosos’ hasta las que suprimen cualquier tipo de discurso contra la guerra en el contexto de la agresión rusa contra Ucrania”, aseguró.
En este difícil contexto represivo, Romanova contó que “los chistes sobre la guerra en Ucrania están prohibidos”.
“Las leyes son deliberadamente vagas, lo que permite a las autoridades castigar la ironía, la sátira e incluso los comentarios neutrales”, afirmó.
Soldados ucranianos disparan contra drones rusos (Foto: Tyler Hicks/The New York Times)
Ostanin no es el único comediante en problemas.
“Ya hay personas en Rusia que fueron condenadas o están siendo investigadas por chistes, monólogos, publicaciones en redes sociales y declaraciones públicas”, dijo Romanova.
Para la activista, “los comediantes, blogueros y artistas corren un riesgo especialmente alto porque el humor, por su naturaleza, implica ironía y crítica”.
“El caso de Artiom Ostanin forma parte de un patrón más amplio: el Estado está destruyendo sistemáticamente el espacio para la ironía pública, la sátira y la libertad de expresión. En la Rusia actual, el humor ya no es una forma segura de autoexpresión y las autoridades lo tratan cada vez más como una amenaza», concluyó.
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Pero la censura no solo alcanza a comediantes.
El estreno de la obra teatral Democracia, basada en una pieza homónima de Iósif Brodski, fue suspendido en Moscú tras la denuncia de grupos cercanos al Kremlin, según informó el canal de Telegram Ostorozhno Nóvosti.
La presión es extrema. Varias figuras públicas y diputados criticaron la exitosa película ‘Cheburashka-2’, protagonizada por uno de los personajes infantiles más queridos en la antigua Unión Soviética y en Rusia. ¿La causa? No promueve la moral conservadora que impulsa Putin.
Rusia, Vladimir Putin, Sumario
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Portland mayor demands ICE leave city after federal agents use tear gas on protesters ‘Sickening decisions’
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The mayor of Portland, Oregon, is calling on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to leave his city after federal agents deployed tear gas at a crowd of demonstrators, including young children, outside an ICE facility over the weekend.
Mayor Keith Wilson characterized the protests on Saturday as peaceful, as federal agents reportedly used tear gas, pepper balls, flash-bang grenades and rubber bullets against the anti-ICE demonstrators.
Wilson urged ICE agents to resign and for the agency to leave Portland, denouncing their «use of violence» and the «trampling of the Constitution.»
«Today, federal forces deployed heavy waves of chemical munitions, impacting a peaceful daytime protest where the vast majority of those present violated no laws, made no threat, and posed no danger to federal forces,» he said in a statement on Saturday.
CHICAGO MAYOR BRANDON JOHNSON PUTS ICE ‘ON NOTICE’ WITH EXECUTIVE ORDER SEEKING PROSECUTION OF AGENTS
Mayor Keith Wilson characterized the protests in his city as peaceful, as he called for ICE to leave. (Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)
«To those who continue to work for ICE: Resign. To those who control this facility: Leave. Through your use of violence and the trampling of the Constitution, you have lost all legitimacy and replaced it with shame. To those who continue to make these sickening decisions, go home, look in a mirror, and ask yourselves why you have gassed children. Ask yourselves why you continue to work for an agency responsible for murders on American streets. No one is forcing you to lie to yourself, even as your bosses continue to lie to the American people,» the mayor continued.
The mayor added that this nation «will never accept a federal presence where agents wield deadly force against the very people they are sworn to serve.»
«I share the impatience with those who demand we use every legal tool at our disposal to push back against this inexcusable, unconscionable, and unacceptable violence against our community,» Wilson said. «I share the need to act. Actions that can withstand the scrutiny of the justice system take time – and we cannot afford to lose this fight.»
CBP/BORDER PATROL AGENTS PLACED ON ADMINISTRATIVE LEAVE AFTER DEADLY CONFRONTATION WITH ALEX PRETTI
Federal agents deployed tear gas at a crowd of demonstrators, including young children, outside an ICE facility in Portland. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Portland officials are working to operationalize an ordinance, which went into effect last month, that imposes a fee on detention facilities that use chemical agents, the mayor said.
«As we prepare to put that law into action, we are also documenting today’s events and preserving evidence. The federal government must, and will, be held accountable,» he wrote.
«Portland will continue to stand firmly with our immigrant neighbors, who deserve safety, dignity, and the full protection of the communities they help build,» he continued. «We are also proud of the Portlanders who showed up today in peaceful solidarity, demonstrating the strength and clarity of those shared values in the face of federal overreach.»
This comes amid national unrest and bipartisan scrutiny of immigration enforcement tactics following two killings of U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents last month in Minneapolis.
The Trump administration has faced bipartisan scrutiny over its immigration enforcement tactics following two killings of U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
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Renee Nicole Good was shot and killed by ICE agent Jonathan Ross on Jan. 7 in Minneapolis, and Alex Pretti was fatally shot on Jan. 24 by Border Patrol agent Jesus Ochoa and Customs and Border Protection officer Raymundo Gutierrez while he was recording immigration enforcement operations in the same city.
Pretti, an ICU nurse, appeared to be attempting to assist a woman agents had knocked down when he was sprayed with an irritant, pushed to the ground and beaten, according to video and witness accounts. An agent was later seen pulling Pretti’s lawfully owned firearm from his waistband before other agents fired several shots, killing him.
portland,oregon,us,donald trump,homeland security,kristi noem,us protests
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“As Nasty As They Wanna Be”: qué hay detrás del álbum más censurado en la historia del rap
En 1990, la industria musical de Estados Unidos vivió un hecho inédito: por primera vez, un álbum fue declarado “legalmente obsceno”. El protagonista de este episodio fue 2 Live Crew, un grupo de rap originario de Miami, cuyo tercer disco, As Nasty As They Wanna Be, no solo desató controversia por su contenido, sino que también reconfiguró los límites entre arte, moral y legalidad.
Formado en la década de los 80, 2 Live Crew se caracterizaba por sus letras explícitas, ritmos acelerados y una actitud desafiante que rompía con los códigos de la época. El grupo, liderado por Luther Campbell (conocido como Luke Skyywalker), ya era un referente del subgénero Miami bass, pero no fue hasta el lanzamiento de As Nasty As They Wanna Be, el 7 de febrero de 1989, que se convirtieron en un fenómeno nacional.
El disco, repleto de referencias sexuales y lenguaje explícito, fue el mayor éxito comercial de la banda y obtuvo la certificación de platino de la Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA).
La polémica que rodeó el álbum terminó de definir su lugar en la historia. “Con letras explícitas, ritmos provocadores y una actitud desfachatada, 2 Live Crew se metió directo en el ojo de la tormenta cultural”, señaló Indie Hoy.
La llegada al mercado de As Nasty As They Wanna Be coincidió con una creciente preocupación social e institucional por el contenido de la música popular, en especial el rap, que para muchos sectores conservadores representaba una amenaza para los valores tradicionales.
La controversia alcanzó su punto máximo en 1990, cuando un tribunal del distrito de Florida declaró a As Nasty As They Wanna Be como “legalmente obsceno”, un fallo sin precedentes en la historia de la música estadounidense. El disco, que ya incluía el clásico sello de advertencia parental, pasó a ser el primer álbum en recibir tal calificación jurídica.
Según el fallo, el contenido de las canciones era tan explícito que excedía los límites de la libertad artística y podía ser considerado un delito.
Dos días después de la sentencia, un vendedor de discos de Florida fue arrestado por vender una copia del álbum a un policía encubierto. “La detención convirtió a 2 Live Crew en leyenda. No por romper récords de ventas, sino por entrar a los libros de historia como los primeros músicos en ser procesados por el contenido lírico de su obra”, destacó Indie Hoy.
El impacto del proceso judicial fue inmediato. Figuras públicas, como David Bowie, manifestaron su apoyo a la libertad de expresión artística. Incluso académicos de renombre, como Henry Louis Gates Jr., testificaron a favor del grupo durante el juicio.
Este episodio no solo consolidó la fama de 2 Live Crew, sino que también abrió un debate sobre el papel del Estado frente a las expresiones culturales consideradas ofensivas o disruptivas.
El juicio contra 2 Live Crew no solo marcó un antes y un después en la industria del rap, sino que también sentó un precedente legal de alcance duradero. El disco, que representó el final de la relación del grupo con el sello Skyywalker Records —renombrado luego como Luke Records tras una demanda de George Lucas por el uso del nombre—, pasó a ser un símbolo de la lucha por la libertad artística en Estados Unidos.
La controversia en torno a As Nasty As They Wanna Be se inscribió en una larga tradición de enfrentamientos entre músicos y el sistema judicial. Casos como el arresto de Jim Morrison en 1969 en Miami por “exposición indecente”, el hostigamiento sufrido por Billie Holiday por interpretar “Strange Fruit” o la persecución política contra Fela Kuti en Nigeria por sus letras contestatarias muestran que el arte musical ha sido históricamente terreno de disputa y resistencia.
A pesar de la censura inicial y los problemas legales, el álbum de 2 Live Crew resistió el paso del tiempo como un recordatorio de los riesgos y desafíos que implica empujar los límites del discurso público. “Más allá del debate sobre el tono de sus letras, lo cierto es que su caso marcó un antes y un después en la relación entre música y legalidad”, concluyó Indie Hoy.
As Nasty As They Wanna Be no solo fue un éxito comercial, sino que se transformó en un punto de inflexión en la discusión sobre los límites de la libertad artística y la intervención estatal.
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