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White House roadmap says Europe may be ‘unrecognizable’ in 20 years as migration raises doubts about US allies
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The White House warns in a stark new National Security Strategy that Europe could be «unrecognizable in 20 years or less» due to mass migration, adding that the demographic shift raises doubts about future U.S. allies on the continent.
«Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less,» the 33-page document released on Thursday reads.
It adds that the «real and more stark prospect» is of «civilizational erasure.»
Mass immigration has been one of Europe’s most volatile political flashpoints over the past decade, fueled by repeated waves of immigrants from the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.
TRUMP HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL LAW GRANTING PRESIDENTIAL POWER TO HALT IMMIGRATION AS CRACKDOWN ESCALATES
A small boat heads off into the English Channel after picking up migrants at sunrise on July 2, 2025, in Gravelines, France. (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
«As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies,» the document says. «Many of these nations are currently doubling down on their present path. We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation.»
The national security plan cites migration policies that are «transforming the continent and creating strife,» along with «cratering birthrates» and the erosion of national identity.
The White House warns the demographic shift could have major implications for NATO and European security, noting that several member states may become «majority non-European.» That scenario, the document argues, could weaken Europe’s ability to deter adversaries and complicate U.S. efforts to maintain transatlantic stability.
«Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European,» the document says. «As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.»
President Donald Trump sits at the Resolute desk in the Oval Office. Trump has been a constant critic of Europe’s immigration polices. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The document says Europe’s economic decline is well under way, losing a 25% share of global GDP in 1990 to 14% today — «partly owing to national and transnational regulations that undermine creativity and industriousness.»
But it says that economic decline is eclipsed by the broader warning of «civilizational erasure.» It lists migration policies, censorship, political suppression, cratering birthrates and the loss of national identity as the forces driving that trajectory.
TRUMP SLAMS EUROPE OVER IMMIGRATION, SAYS ‘HORRIBLE INVASION’ IS KILLING THE CONTINENT
President Donald Trump echoed similar warnings during a visit to the United Kingdom last year, saying mass immigration would «destroy Europe» and that the continent was «not going to survive» unless governments dramatically changed course.
The White House defended the warning, saying Europe is already suffering the consequences of mass immigration.
«The devastating impacts of unchecked migration and those migrants’ inability to assimilate are not just a concern for President Trump but for Europeans themselves, who have increasingly noted immigration as one of their top concerns,» White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement to Fox News Digital. «These open border policies have led to widespread examples of violence, spikes in crime, and more, with detrimental impacts on the fiscal sustainability of social safety net programs.»
Kelly said Trump’s border policies «saved America from such destruction,» adding that «other countries would be wise to follow suit.»
The White House pointed to a range of European data to support the administration’s concerns, citing studies showing asylum migration costing the Netherlands €475,000 per migrant, illegal immigration costing France €1.8 billion in 2023 and non-Western migrants committing disproportionate shares of violent crime in Denmark and Germany. The White House also referenced a series of fatal terror attacks across the continent carried out by migrants.
The 33-page blueprint has no named author but features a foreword by Trump, who calls the document a «roadmap to ensure America remains the greatest and most successful nation in human history.»
The document forms part of a sweeping set of national security goals in which the president vows to enforce the Monroe Doctrine while adding his own corollary aimed at expanding U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and countering adversaries’ growing footprint.
The Trump administration asserts that a «reasonably stable» Western Hemisphere where governments work together to fight malign foreign influence is key to U.S. national security. To achieve this, the administration vows in the document to «assert and enforce a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine.»
Former President James Monroe issued the doctrine in his seventh annual address to Congress on Dec. 2, 1823, warning European powers against interfering in the Western Hemisphere through political influence or colonization. The U.S. Office of the Historian, part of the State Department, notes that although European nations initially paid little attention to Monroe’s declaration, it eventually became «a longstanding tenet of U.S. foreign policy.»
Migrants aboard a fishing boat arrive at the port of Catania in Italy in 2023. (Fabrizio Villa/Getty Images)
«After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region,» the document reads.
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«This ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine is a common-sense and potent restoration of American power and priorities, consistent with American security interests.»
Fox News’ Rachel Wolf contributed to this report.
world,national security,europe,nato,military,donald trump,immigration,illegal immigrants
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‘Doubling down on stupid’: Newsom, AOC, trash Trump at European summit as they raise 2028 profiles
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Two of President Donald Trump’s top Democratic critics are using appearances at a high-profile European gathering to blast the Republican president’s agenda and beef up their foreign policy chops on the world state ahead of possible 2028 White House runs.
«Donald Trump is temporary,» California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday during a climate change discussion at the Munich Security Conference in Germany. «He’ll be gone in three years.»
And Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, during a town hall at the prestigious conference, pointed to Trump and charged, «We are seeing our presidential administration tear apart the transatlantic partnership, rip up every democratic norm.»
Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez are the most well known of a small group of potential Democratic presidential contenders using appearances in Munich to criticize Trump’s international agenda and offer a contrast to Vice President JD Vance, the perceived 2028 Republican front-runner, who delivered a scathing attack on Europe during his speech at the security forum last year.
NEWSOM STOP IN KEY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY STATE SPARKS MORE 2028 SPECULATION
Vice President JD Vance gives a speech at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, Feb. 14, 2025. (Leah Millis/Reuter)
The other Democrats with likely national ambitions making the rounds at the confab and meeting with international leaders are Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sens. Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly of Arizona and Chris Murphy of Connecticut, and former Commerce Secretary. Gina Raimondo.
Ocasio-Cortez pointed to her fellow Democrats in Munich and said, «I think many of us are here to say we are here, and we are ready for the next chapter, not to have the world turn to isolation, but to deepen our partnership … and increase our commitment to integrity to our values.»
At a second discussion later on Friday, Ocasio-Cortez argued that «the United States is very much in a compromised position compared to where we were five years ago. Our relationships with our allies are strained. Our commitment and demonstrated consistency on democratic values and human rights are also incredibly strained.»
JD VANCE SAYS ‘DUMBEST’ DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WILL WIN NOMINATION IN 2028
Newsom, who is speaking at his third major international conference in recent months, following appearances last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland and late last year at a world climate conference in Brazil, hammered Trump over climate policy, arguing the president is «doubling down on stupid.»
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a session at the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, Friday, Feb. 13, 2026. (Michael Probst/AP Photo)
«Never in the history of the United States of America has there been a more destructive president than the current occupant of the White House in Washington, D.C.,» Newsom charged. «Donald Trump is trying to turn back the clock.»
THE 2028 WHITE HOUSE RACE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
The White House, responding to the criticism from Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez, argued in a statement to Fox News Digital that «Gavin Newscum and AOC should be fixing California and New York’s many problems, but instead, they are frolicking in Europe, where no one knows or cares who they are.»
Ocasio-Cortez, during the first of her two appearances at the conference, was asked by the town hall moderator, «When you run for president, are you going to impose a wealth tax or a billionaire’s tax?»
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., takes part in the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, on Friday, Feb. 13, 2026. (Sven Hoppe /dpa via AP)
Responding with a laugh, the four-term federal lawmaker who has long advocated for significant tax increases on the ultra-wealthy to fund progressive initiatives then said, «We don’t have to wait for any one president to impose a wealth tax… That needs to be done expeditiously.»
Matthew Bartlett, who served at the State Department during the first Trump administration, told Fox News Digital that «the regular foreign policy crowd is turning into something of a cattle call for 2028 as numerous Democrats take Munich to articulate their vision and try to develop some sort of foreign policy credential as the next presidential race is on the horizon.»
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And Terry Shumaker, who served as U.S. ambassador to Trinidad and Tobago during the Clinton administration, noted that the appearances in Munich by the potential candidates «gives them experience, confidence, and something to refer back to on the campaign trail when they’re asked about their foreign policy experience.»
And Shumaker, a longtime New Hampshire-based attorney and Democratic Party activist, said it also signals to the world «that Trump is not a monolith. That there’s another side of the story in the United States.»
gavin newsom,alexandria ocasio cortez,jd vance,donald trump,foreign policy,germany,presidential primaries,democratic party
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Bolsonaro dynasty eyes comeback as Brazil’s socialist president faces challenge from jailed rival’s son
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FIRST ON FOX: Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of incarcerated former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is a man on an unofficial diplomatic mission in the United States. His objective is to free his father, who is serving a 27-year sentence at the Federal Police headquarters in the nation’s capital.
Convicted on charges of plotting a coup d’état, leading an armed criminal organization and attempting to violently abolish the democratic rule of law, Jair Bolsonaro remains a popular yet controversial figure in Brazil who still commands a devoted following nationwide, especially in the southern strongholds of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s son announces a biopic, while his brother, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, enters the 2026 presidential race. (Ton Molina/Getty Images/ Evaristo Sa / AFP via Getty Images)
Eduardo Bolsonaro has pursued a «maximum pressure campaign» against the current Brazilian regime on behalf of his father, lobbying the Trump administration for sanctions against the country and for Magnitsky sanctions against the head of the Brazilian Supreme Court, Alexandre de Moraes.
RUBIO WARNS BRAZIL OF US RESPONSE AFTER BOLSONARO’S CONVICTION FOR PLOTTING A COUP
In 2022, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated incumbent Bolsonaro in the closest election since Brazil’s 1985 return to democracy. This followed Lula’s dramatic release from prison by the Brazilian Supreme Court in 2019, where he was serving a sentence for corruption.
While many expected São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas to run in 2026, he declined, clearing the way for the former president’s other son, Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, who declared his candidacy in December.
Speaking to Fox News Digital at the Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Eduardo Bolsonaro discussed the situation.
«A lot of polls are showing that my brother, Senator Flavio (Bolsonaro), is tied and some of them he’s a little bit ahead. … Flavio just launched, just announced that he is going to run. It was a big decision that Jair Bolsonaro took, recognizing that it would be impossible for him to run in the October election, for sure, because he’s in jail now. Unfairly, but he is. This is a fact.»
Eduardo Bolsonaro believes the nation’s economic and security issues will propel his brother to victory.
«The strategy of Flavio is to show how bad the Lula administration is, mainly in economy and also in security. These are areas where Flavio is doing very well,» Eduardo said.
«Everybody’s fed up with Lula supporting Hamas, increasing criminality and not doing a great job in the economic area. So, Flavio, for sure his focus is going to be on the economy and security to defeat Lula.»
While Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula are clearly the top two contenders, several other right-wing and center-right candidates have entered the race, including Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema, Paraná Governor Ratinho Junior and Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the United Nations headquarters on Sept. 23, 2025, in New York City. (Taylor Hill/Getty Images)
Eduardo Bolsonaro dismisses concerns that the current electoral scenario could split the vote and lead to a first-round electoral victory for Lula.
«It doesn’t matter who is going to the second round; against Lula, everybody will be together. Because we all know that the worst that can happen to the country is the re-election of Lula da Silva,» Eduardo said.
«So, these polls that are trying to say that Lula … can win in the first round if the right-wing movement splits the votes between these candidates. This is a lie. For sure, this is not going to happen.
«And, for sure, it’s very good that we have more candidates on the right wing. … Why? Because they will all criticize Lula da Silva. So, even Flavio is publicly saying that it would be a good thing to do to support more and more candidates for the right … against Lula.»
JIM CAVIEZEL STARRING IN BOLSONARO BIOPIC AS SON OF JAILED FORMER PRESIDENT LAUNCHES 2026 CAMPAIGN
While former President Bolsonaro is incarcerated, his movement enjoys strong support in the Brazilian Congress, which recently passed legislation that would dramatically cut his prison sentence.
However, Lula vetoed the legislation in January, which means that Congress may now seek to override that veto. Additionally, the Supreme Court, which is unfavorably disposed to Bolsonaro, may also review the legislation on grounds of constitutionality.
President Donald Trump and Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. (Getty Images)
«Everything that the Supreme Court does not like, they say that this is against our constitution. It’s the way that they try to get all of the power over the legislative [branch], and even sometimes the executive power. So, this is one more chapter of this long invasion by the judiciary. … Lula da Silva doing the veto against this bill that was approved by the Congress only shows that he is always speaking with the left-wing bubble. He’s talking to the radical left people.»
Eduardo Bolsonaro believes the Brazilian people support his father over the Supreme Court and points out his father was not even present in Brazil for the Jan. 8 riots.
«In Brazil they do not approve [of the veto]. They are fed up with all of this. … On the very same day [Jan. 8, 2023] … the ‘protest dictator,’ Jair Bolsonaro, was in Orlando, in Disney World,» Eduardo said.
«So, everybody knows this is a fake thing, and no one can support any more debates around this.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Donald Trump feud over tariffs and Brazil’s treatment of Bolsonaro. (Adriano Machado/Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters)
«That’s why Jair Bolsonaro is in jail because if he wasn’t convicted to 27 years in jail. He would be free to run, and for sure he would be the next president of Brazil. That’s the only reason that he is in jail, because of political reasons. That is why when Flavio Bolsonaro gets elected in October and changes the political scenario, this will also change the scenario inside the judiciary of Brazil.»
Eduardo Bolsonaro is entirely focused on his brother Flavio’s 2026 presidential campaign as a means to freeing his father from prison.
«Now, I only have one role … electing Flávio Bolsonaro, and he will give the pardon to Jair. Not only to Jair, but also to me. I am accused of committing crimes in the United States because I was talking with authorities, American authorities, and they consider this an attack against the sovereignty of Brazil.
«The judge of the Supreme Court, Alexandre de Moraes, who got sanctioned by the Trump administration with the support of Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio, he blames me for that. But as he does not have the courage to sue Trump, Bessent and Rubio, he’s suing me for that. So, we hope that Flavio is going to get elected and then, as president, he has the power to pardon me, my father and more than 400 conservative people that are in jail.»
While the Bolsonaros have historically performed well in the vote-rich and wealthy southern states of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, they have underperformed in Brazil’s poorer Northeast region, which is where Lula is originally from.
Yet, Bolsonaro promises a strong showing nationwide and says that voters in the Northeast are ready for a change:
«It’s bringing the truth. People nowadays know that ‘assistencialismo’ (populist social assistance for purposes of vote-buying), is the way that Lula gets this high amount of votes in the Northeast of Brazil.
A political protest in Rio de Janeiro (AP Photo/Andre Penner)
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«We are also going strong in the Northeast. The Northeast, you’re going to see, it’s not anymore a region of Brazil that is under the [control of] Lula.»
Eduardo Bolsonaro weighed in on recent U.S. military action in Venezuela and pledged a renewed U.S.-Brazilian geopolitical relationship and full support for American action against Communist regimes.
«Maduro is not the president anymore, and, in Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega arrested seven opponents … that were running for president,» Eduardo said. «How can you consider this a democracy? So, for sure, it’s not a democracy.
«There is no difference between these guys and Chapo or Pablo Escobar. The difference is only that Nicolás Maduro and Daniel Ortega took over the country, they took over the institutions.
«So, everybody, not only Venezuela, but also Brazil, is really happy that the great military of the United States arrested Maduro. … It’s bringing hope to the people. And, for sure, we do support them, not only in public … but also in international forums.»
This interview was lightly edited for style and clarity.
brazil,jair bolsonaro,latin america,world politics,donald trump
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