INTERNACIONAL
Can Maduro survive as Trump’s oil pressure campaign hits his regime’s weak spot?
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For years, Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has defied predictions of collapse. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation and internal unrest have failed to unseat him. But the latest escalation by the Trump administration — including the seizure of a Venezuelan crude tanker and the enforcement of a blockade on sanctioned vessels — has hit the regime where it is most vulnerable: its oil trade.
Melissa Ford Maldonado, director of the Western Hemisphere Initiative at the America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital that while the timeline and outcome remain uncertain, the regime’s dependence on oil leaves it uniquely vulnerable. «One thing is clear: the Maduro regime can’t sustain itself without oil revenue,» she said.
While the U.S. move has raised concerns among European allies, who warned that the escalation could undermine regional stability and complicate efforts toward a political resolution in Venezuela, Ford Maldonado says the administration’s approach is striking at the core of Maduro’s power.
«What we’re seeing now with President Trump’s order for a total blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela is a direct hit against Maduro’s revenue streams,» she said. «He needs the oil money from these tankers to buy loyalty and pay off generals, cartel partners and political enforcers to stay in power. That pipeline is finally being cut.»
MADURO SINGS, DANCES AND THREATENS TO ‘SMASH THE TEETH’ OF THE ‘NORTH AMERICAN EMPIRE’
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt was questioned about the U.S. seizing an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. (Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters )
According to Reuters, up to 11 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are currently stranded aboard 39 tankers anchored offshore.
Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said the recent U.S. actions «fundamentally change the economics of Venezuela’s oil exports.
«That oil is neither sold nor paid for,» Jraissati said. «Until those cargoes move, they generate no cash flow for PDVSA and deepen Maduro’s liquidity strain.» PDVSA is Venezuela’s state-run oil company.
Venezuela is one of the most oil-dependent countries on earth. Oil accounts for more than 80% of exports and roughly 90% of government revenue, leaving the nation extraordinarily exposed when crude shipments falter.
«After years of economic collapse as a result of Venezuela’s socialist policies, virtually all other sectors of the economy are bankrupted,» Jraissati noted.
A gas flare behind a coking coal pile at the Jose Antonio Anzotegui Petrochemical Complex in Barcelona, Anzoategui state, Venezuela, on Monday, May 22, 2023. (Carolina Cabral/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil have been in place since 2019, but enforcement often lagged, and PDVSA continued to move crude through intermediaries and opaque trading networks, mainly toward Asia. The recent tanker seizure appears to have changed that dynamic.
The Trump administration said the seized vessel was headed for Cuba, but Jraissati argued China was the more likely destination. «Tankers of that size are typically deployed on long-haul routes, and China accounts for roughly 60% percent of Venezuela’s oil exports,» he said.
Not only has crude become harder to sell, it has become cheaper. Venezuelan heavy crude is trading at discounts of up to $21 per barrel below Brent, according to sources cited by Jraissati and confirmed by Reuters reporting.
US AND UKRAINE TARGET 1,000-VESSEL ‘DARK FLEET’ SMUGGLING SANCTIONED OIL WORLDWIDE
Newly released footage shows U.S. forces securing a Venezuelan oil tanker. (@AGPamBondi via X)
«The seizure is already reshaping Venezuela’s oil trade,» he said. «PDVSA is facing stuck cargoes, rising price discounts and new demands from buyers to renegotiate spot contracts.»
Oil tankers, with cargoes worth tens of millions of dollars, now face heightened risk if they enter Venezuelan waters. This has sent buyers and shipowners scrambling for insurance and new terms.
«In general terms, this is a game-changing policy because it fundamentally alters the economics of exporting oil from Venezuela,» Jraissati said. «Exports will not stop, but the conditions under which they are sold will deteriorate sharply. It will weaken Maduro’s cash flow.»
EXPERT REVEALS WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR TRUMP TO DEPLOY TROOPS TO VENEZUELA: ‘POSSIBILITY OF ESCALATION’
An oil tanker is seen anchored in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela after loading crude oil at the Bajo Grande Refinery port. (Jose Bula Urrutia/UCG/Universal Images Group/Getty Images)
For years, Venezuela has used a «shadow» or «dark» fleet — vessels that turn off tracking systems, swap names and switch flags — to move crude around sanctions. Jraissati said this network of ships tries to obscure ownership through shell companies and frequent reflagging.
Even these workarounds are under strain as insurers and ports become wary of vessels linked to Venezuelan crude.
MADURO TRAPPED WITH FEW RETALIATION OPTIONS AFTER TRUMP ADMIN SEIZES VENEZUELAN OIL TANKER
U.S. forces were seen climbing staircases on the ship. (@AGPamBondi via X)
Jraissati painted a grim picture of Venezuelan society already unraveling under economic collapse.
«80% of people in Venezuela are in poverty,» he said. «50% are in extreme poverty, meaning they don’t make even $3 a day.»
He added that more than 30% of the population — around 8 million people — have left the country amid the ongoing crisis.
Jraissati cautioned that oil pressure alone will not topple Maduro, but described the current combination of sanctions, seizures and diplomatic isolation as unprecedented.
«This needs to be seen as a combination of actions. Oil pressure alone is not enough. Diplomatic pressure alone is not enough. But when all of these are combined, there is a much greater possibility of Maduro actually falling,» he said.
Cale Brown, chair of Polaris National Security and a former State Department principal deputy spokesperson, said authoritarian regimes often endure sanctions by shifting into illicit revenue streams.
US SET TO SEIZE TENS OF MILLIONS IN VENEZUELAN OIL AFTER TANKER INTERCEPTION, WHITE HOUSE SAYS
Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro greets his supporters during a rally in Caracas on Dec. 1, 2025. (Pedro Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images)
«Regimes like Maduro’s display little concern about the impact of sanctions on their own people, and when traditional sources of income dry up, they seek other lifelines, as Maduro has with narcotics and other forms of illicit finance,» Brown said.
Still, Brown said Washington’s strategy reflects broader security concerns, drug and human trafficking and hostile foreign influence in the Western Hemisphere.
«President Trump is right to identify Venezuela as ground zero for many of the problems we are concerned with in the Western Hemisphere,» Brown said.
Maduro has survived sanctions, protests and isolation before. But analysts say the current oil crackdown directly threatens the regime’s ability to pay security forces, maintain patronage networks and keep the state functioning.
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In this April 13, 2019, file photo, Nicolas Maduro, speaks flanked by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, right, and Gen. Ivan Hernandez, second from right, head of both the presidential guard and military counterintelligence in Caracas, Venezuela. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)
«It’s very important that we continue to emphasize that Venezuela’s oil does not belong to Maduro or his cronies,» Ford Maldonado said, «It belongs to the Venezuelan people who made their choices clear at the ballot box last year and have been robbed blind by the regime which continues to enrich itself and hijack the country’s primary economic lifeline to stay in power. Cutting off that cash is the fastest way to weaken the regime, and weakening the regime helps the Venezuelan people!»
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Ese es el titular y ese es el sentido de los ataques coordinados de Israel y Estados Unidos que este 28 de febrero se han producido contra Irán: no buscan objetivos concretos, como la finalización de la carrera nuclear, o la destrucción de los centros de ensamblaje de los misíles balísticos, sino la caída completa del régimen.
La operación ‘Furia épica’, y su homólogo israelí ‘Rugido del León’ no son una reedición de las operaciones bélicas de junio pasado: el ‘León Creciente’ y su par americano, el ‘Martillo de medianoche”. En aquella ocasión se buscaba amedentrar al régimen, herir sus estructuras bélicas y, sobretodo, atacar las instalaciones nucleares de Natanz, Isafhan y la impenetrable Fordow, después de la constatación del nivel de enriquecimiento crítico del uranio que había conseguido Irán. Fue una operación quirúrgica y, por ende, limitada. Pero esta vez, en palabras del propio Trump, la intención es integral: destruir la industria de mísiles iraní, aniquilar su potencial armado, aniquilar toda opción nuclear, destruir la capacidad de desestabilización de sus aliados terroristas y, en definitiva, eliminar completamente la amenaza que supone el régimen de los ayatolas. Es por ello que Trump ha acabado su vídeo de ocho minutos en Truth Social asegurando al pueblo iraní que “la hora de su libertad está a su alcance” y animándolo a tomar las riendas de su destino. Por si hubiera alguna duda, el primer objetivo del ataque ha sido matar al líder supremo Alí Khamenei, cuya situación al momento de escribir el articulo, aún es confusa.
Si esa es la premisa, la caída del régimen de los ayatolás que aterroriza a su población y desestabiliza a toda la región desde 1978, cabe preguntarse si realmente es un objetivo viable y a qué plazo. Sobretodo porque Irán no es Venezuela: tiene capacidad militar poderosa; su guardia revolucionaria y el resto de cuerpos militares y policiales son compactos y están muy bien entrenados; está situado en un zona de enorme valor geoestratégico, capaz de crear grandes sacudidas económicas; tiene objetivos americanos y al propio Israel al alcance de sus misiles, y sus proxies, pueden atacar a sus enemigos desde muchas posiciones. Con todo ello, no parece que pueda tratarse de una guerra corta (de momento, fuentes de seguridad israelí hablan de más de una semana de ataques), aunque la voluntad americana sea acortarla al máximo y centrarla en los ataques aéreos. Pero si el objetivo es la caída del régimen, ¿será suficiente la batalla aérea? Sin duda a nadie le interesa una guerra con infantería, y menos a Trump, que podría encharcar a Estados Unidos en un nuevo Afganistán. No hay que olvidar que Irán tiene 650.000 efectivos activos, una de las infanterías más grandes del mundo. Pero, si imaginar una guerra con infantería es un pésimo propósito, descartarla es imprudente.
Con todo, la superioridad militar de americanos e israelíes en mar y aire está fuera de toda duda y por tanto es imaginable que consigan colapsar el régimen destruyendo todos sus centros estratégicos, tanto militares, como políticos. Lo cual no significa que Irán no pueda ser letal en las próximas horas y días. El éxito militar de USA e Israel se da por seguro. El cuándo se produce y qué consecuencias políticas tiene, es más difuso.
En este sentido, ¿es el momento de atacar Irán? Sin ninguna duda. Primero, porque es el punto final de la guerra que empezó el 7 de octubre de 2023, con la masacre de Hamás en Israel, auspiciada por los ayatollahas. A partir de aquel punto de inflexión, Irán pasó, de ser el enemigo a vigilar, a ser el enemigo a abatir, no solo para Israel, sinó para otros países preocupados por la carrera nuclear y por el potencial que Irán había aconseguido a través de sus proxies: chiitas iraquíes, la Siria de los Asad, el Hezbollah en el Líbano, los huties del Yemen, y los grupos terroristas que actuaban en Gaza. Y ello sin contar con la penetración iraní en América Latina. No había opción para la negociación. Pero la guerra con Irán solo podía producirse si se ocurrían tres grandes sacudidas: si Israel ganaba su propia guerra en el Líbano contra Hezbollah y en Gaza contra Hamás; si caía el régimen sirio; y si llegaba Trump a la Casa Blanca. Todo pasó, y ahora està ocurriendo lo que entonces ya estaba predestinado.
Pero hay más motivos que han desencadenado la decisión final. Por un lado, la constatación de que China y Rusia no tienen ninguna intención de intervenir. Al contrario, necesitan una situación de estabilidad en la región. Por otro lado, la mayoría de países de la región quieren pasar del momento Irán al momento Acuerdos de Abraham, y al consecuente potencial económico que puede generar. Finalmente, la grave crisis económica del país sumada a la extraordinaria y heroica revuelta de los iraníes, cuya valentía han pagado con miles de muertos, han mostrado la extrema debilidad de un régimen enloquecido y delirante que se aguanta por el terror, con la mayoría de la población en su contra. Con un añadido final: la aparición de Reza Pahlavi, cuya popularidad lo convierte en posible referente para el proceso democrático. Estados Unidos no tiene una Delcy en Irán, pero con Pahlavi tiene un puente de transición.
Conclusiones finales, aunque precarias, dada la volatilidad de la situación: la guerra es total y tiene como objetivo el final del regiment de lo ayatollas; Estados Unidos e Israel han desencadenado una fuerza militar colosal, que Irán no puede vencer; la guerra puede durar más de lo que quisiera Trump, porque el régimen la vivirá como una “guerra existencial” e intentará morir matando; es el gran momento de la oposición al régimen, que siempre consideró necesaria la intervención para poder derrocarlo. Finalmente, lo más importante: si cae el régimen, además de liberar al pueblo persa, habrá ganado la causa de la mujer, la causa de los derechos humanos y la siempre eterna y frágil causa de la libertad.
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President Donald Trump’s joint strikes on Iran are exposing a divide in both parties, as several Democrats come to the president’s defense while a handful of Republicans question his constitutional authority.
Trump announced U.S. and Israeli forces targeted Iranian leadership and military sites in the early hours of Saturday morning, catching millions of Americans — and the majority of lawmakers in Congress — by surprise.
A handful of House Democrats are justifying the operation, bucking most of their party, who are calling the operation a reckless and illegal action. On the other hand, at least three Republican lawmakers are signaling that the news gave them some pause as of Saturday morning.
Rep. Greg Landsman, D-Ohio, said that the strikes «are targeting military infrastructure —- with warnings to Iranian civilians to take shelter away from these military targets.»
Democrats like Rep. Josh Gottheimer are breaking from their party to justify President Donald Trump’s joint operation with Israel. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
«I want a lasting peace for everyone in the region — from the Iranian people to the Lebanese, Palestinians, Syrians, Iraqis, Jordanians, and Israelis. I hope these targeted strikes on the Iranian regime’s military assets ends the regime’s mayhem and bloodshed and makes way for this lasting peace in the region,» Landsman said.
«Thank you to our brave service members who are leading this effort, and I pray their work will finally free the people of Iran and those in the region from more violence or war.»
Reps. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., and Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., similarly put the onus on Iran, as did Sens. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., and John Fetterman, D-Pa.
ISRAEL LAUNCHES PREEMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST IRAN, DEFENSE MINISTER SAYS
On the Republican side, Reps. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, Thomas Massie, R-Ky., and Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., are concerned about how actions against Iran could run afoul of Congress’ own constitutional authority.
«We need a government small enough to fit within the Constitution. We need a government effective enough to solve problems and serve its own people. Or, we need a new Constitution,» Davidson posted on X.
When another user asked if he supported Trump’s actions against Iran, Davidson replied, «No. War requires congressional authorization.»
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., questions Attorney General Pam Bondi before a House Judiciary Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Feb. 11, 2026. (Robert Schmidt/AFP via Getty)
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Massie, a longtime critic of foreign intervention, went so far as to introduce a resolution alongside Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., to rein in Trump’s war powers. House Democrats are demanding a vote on that resolution as soon as next week.
Landsman told NOTUS that he would vote against such a measure if it came to the House floor.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., while similarly praising the military’s moves, refused to tell Fox News Digital if he would support the resolution via a spokesperson.
«Today, the United States, with our key democratic ally Israel, took decisive action to defend our national security, fight terror, protect our allies, and stand with the Iranian people who have been massacred in the streets for demanding freedom from the murderous Iranian regime,» Gottheimer said in a statement.
«I applaud the extraordinary bravery and professionalism of our servicemembers and pray for their safety as Iran and its terrorist proxies retaliate against American bases and our partners in the region.»
He, like Suozzi and Rosen, called for a classified briefing on the operation’s details.
GULF STATES CONDEMN IRANIAN RETALIATORY STRIKES ON THEIR TERRITORIES FOLLOWING US-ISRAELI OPERATION
«I agree with the President’s objectives that Iran can never be allowed to obtain nuclear capabilities. The President must now clearly define the national security objective and articulate his plan to avoid another costly, prolonged war in the Middle East,» Suozzi said in his own statement.
Fetterman, meanwhile, has been among the Democrats most full-throated in his support.
«President Trump has been willing to do what’s right and necessary to produce real peace in the region. God bless the United States, our great military, and Israel,» he posted on X early Saturday morning, among the first lawmakers to sound off.
A person holds an image of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranian demonstrators protest against the U.S.-Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 28, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
He said of the war powers vote, «I’m a hard no. My vote is Operation Epic Fury.»
It’s a stark contrast to the majority of Democratic lawmakers who have lambasted Trump for not getting authorization from Congress before the strikes.
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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., accused Trump of moving to «abandon diplomacy and launch a massive military attack has left American troops vulnerable to Iran’s retaliatory actions.»
In the Senate, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said, «Confronting Iran’s malign regional activities, nuclear ambitions, and harsh oppression of the Iranian people demands American strength, resolve, regional coordination, and strategic clarity. Unfortunately, President Trump’s fitful cycles of lashing out and risking wider conflict are not a viable strategy.»
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INTERNACIONAL
Did they get him? Khamenei’s fate remains unknown after Israel strike levels his compound
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As the smoke was still clearing over Tehran, one question dominated the region and Washington alike: Did they get him?
In the immediate aftermath of the Israel-U.S. strikes, with the Israeli Air Force targeting senior Iranian leadership infrastructure, rumors swirled that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, had been killed.
Satellite images showed heavy damage to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fortified compound, including buildings believed to house his residence and the so-called House of Leadership. Parts of the complex appeared reduced to rubble.
Regional reports indicated a high-level meeting of Khamenei’s top lieutenants may have been underway when the strike hit. Iranian semi-official media also reported missiles struck near the presidential palace and other leadership sites north of the capital.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei makes first public appearance in weeks with fresh U.S. threats. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader Credit/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Addressing the nation on Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in Hebrew, «There are more and more signs indicating Khamenei is gone.»
Israeli officials told Fox News Digital they were still assessing the results and said it was too early to confirm the fate of the 86-year-old supreme leader. They did not rule out the possibility that he was killed.
Iranian officials, however, insisted the country’s leadership — including Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian — remained safe, according to The Guardian, despite what they described as an assassination attempt. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the BBC that he was not in a position to confirm whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been eliminated.
IRAN FIRES MISSILES AT US BASES ACROSS MIDDLE EAST AFTER AMERICAN STRIKES ON NUCLEAR, IRGC SITES
In this picture released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stands as army air force staff salute at the start of their meeting in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Feb. 8, 2019. Khamenei is defending «Death to America» chants that are standard fare at anti-U.S. rallies across Iran but says the chanting is aimed at America’s leaders and not its people. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)
The long-serving cleric has survived decades of internal unrest, assassination plots and foreign pressure. He rarely appears in public without layers of security and is believed to operate through a tightly controlled network of loyalists embedded across Iran’s military, intelligence and political institutions.
In an exclusive Fox News Digital report earlier this week, researchers described how Khamenei runs what amounts to a parallel state within Iran’s formal government structure.
«The Bayt is the hidden nerve center of the regime in Iran… it operates as a state within a state,» Kasra Aarabi, director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital.
IRAN COULD ‘ACTIVATE’ HEZBOLLAH IF US TARGETS REGIME, TRUMP’S INNER CIRCLE TO DECIDE: EXPERT
Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Even if Khamenei himself were removed, Aarabi warned, the institutional machinery he built — involving roughly 4,000 core staff and a broader network of tens of thousands — could continue functioning.
«Even if he is eliminated, the Bayt as an institution enables the Supreme Leader to function,» Aarabi said. «Think of the Supreme Leader as an institution rather than just a single individual.»
That reality complicates the picture.
For decades, Khamenei has positioned himself not merely as a political leader but as the apex of a system designed to survive shocks — whether from protests at home or military pressure abroad.
The 86-year-old cleric has faced repeated waves of unrest, including mass protests in 2009, 2022 and again in early 2026. Each time, his regime cracked down forcefully, consolidating control rather than fracturing.
He has also weathered years of covert operations, cyber campaigns and targeted strikes against key Iranian figures across the region.
Still, the scale of the latest strike appears unprecedented.
If confirmed dead, Khamenei’s killing would mark the most significant decapitation of Iranian leadership since the 1979 revolution. It would also raise immediate questions about succession inside a system he carefully engineered to avoid sudden collapse.
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A person holds an image of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranian demonstrators protest against the U.S.-Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 28, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
If he survived, it would reinforce his reputation for resilience — and underscore how difficult it is to eliminate the core of Iran’s power structure.
For now, officials say assessments are ongoing, and the question may be answered in the very near future.
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