President Donald Trump goes before the nation in prime time on Wednesday evening to deliver what the White House says is «an important update» on the war with Iran.

The president’s address comes amid the month-long attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, which polls indicate are unpopular with many Americans, and a surge in gas prices as a direct result of the fighting have triggered a further slide in Trump’s standing in public opinion surveys.

The political implications are clear: The strikes on Iran and the erosion of the president’s approval ratings are warning signs for the GOP as Republicans ramp up to defend their slim House and Senate majorities in this autumn’s midterm elections.

Trump stood at 41% approval and 59% disapproval in the latest Fox News national poll, which was conducted March 20–23. The president’s negative 18-point margin was up from 14 points in the previous Fox News poll, which was conducted Feb. 28–March 2, as the strikes against Iran began.

FOX NEWS LIVE UPDATES ON THE U.S. WAR WITH IRAN

The president’s approval ratings stood in the upper 30s, with his disapproval in the upper 50s to low 60s, in the most recent national surveys from Reuters/Ipsos, AP/NORC, and Quinnipiac University. A CNN poll conducted March 26–30 and released Wednesday indicated Trump had a 35%-64% approval/disapproval rating.

An average of the most recent national surveys gauging the president’s standing puts Trump just above 40%, with his disapproval in the upper 50s.

WHAT THE LATEST FOX NEWS POLL SHOWS ON THE WAR WITH IRAN

While Trump’s base remains extremely supportive of the president and the war, much of the slippage is coming from within the GOP, specifically those who are considered non-MAGA Republicans.

«I do see in the last couple of surveys an edging down…close to a double-digit movement,» veteran Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps run the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, said, pointing to declining support for Trump among non-MAGA Republicans.

Fueling Trump’s decline appears to be the surge in gas prices.

The average price of gasoline in the U.S. topped $4 per gallon on Tuesday, according to national averages from AAA and GasBuddy, for the first time in four years.

FOX BUSINESS: GAS PRICES TOP $4 PER GALLON

The military attacks by the U.S. and Israel have resulted in the deaths of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, and the decimation of the country’s military.

In response, Iran has targeted energy facilities with missile and drone attacks in a number of Persian Gulf nations. It has also made the Strait of Hormuz nearly impassable to commercial shipping, bringing roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply to a halt and sending global fuel prices sharply higher.

A gas station displays a sign for $3.999 for regular gasoline, in Cleveland, Monday, March 30, 2026.  (Sue Ogrocki/AP Photo)

That has only exacerbated Trump’s polling woes when it comes to his performance on the economy, amid public dissatisfaction with high prices and the cost of living.

A spotlight on inflation helped fuel sweeping victories by Trump and Republicans in the 2024 elections, when they won back the White House and Senate and successfully defended their slim House majority.

DEMOCRATS TARGET TRUMP, GOP, OVER SURING GAS PRICES 

But a laser focus on affordability by Democrats, amid persistent inflation, has fueled a slew of victories and overperformances in 2025’s off-year elections and in special elections in the more than 14 months since Trump returned to the White House.

According to the Fox News poll, 80% of respondents said they were concerned about gas prices, and 86% concerned about inflation and high prices. And the CNN survey spotlighted that the president’s approval rating for handling the economy sank to 31%, Trump’s lowest level ever in their polling.

The White House says the surge in prices is temporary.

«When Operation Epic Fury is complete, gas prices will plummet back to the multiyear lows American drivers enjoyed before these short-term disruptions,» White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement on Tuesday.

Leavitt emphasized that «President Trump remains committed to fully unleashing American energy dominance, lowering costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families.»

OIL HAS SURGED SINCE THE IRAN CONFLICT BEGAN, BUT GAS PRICES MAY NOT BE DONE RISING

The gas price surge is giving Democrats more political ammunition to target the GOP.

«BREAKING: National Gas Prices Skyrocket to $4 Per Gallon,» read the headline from an email Tuesday morning from the Democratic National Committee.

The House Democrats’ campaign committee last week launched digital ads showing prices at the pump rising and an image saying «D.C. Republicans Did That!» Sources say to expect another round of ads on gas prices in the coming weeks.

But Democrats have their own polling problems, as the party’s brand image has cratered to historic lows in a slew of polls over the past year.

Shaw, pointing to the so-called double-haters, voters who disapprove of both Trump and the Democrats, said that group hasn’t «really swung dramatically to the Democrats» as the midterms approach.

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas emphasized in a recent Fox News Digital interview that, in his opinion, Trump’s «decision to launch this military action is the most consequential decision» of his presidency.

Such perceptions only increase what’s at stake when Trump addresses the nation in prime time.

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«The American people want to hear what the off-ramp for the war is and when it will end,» Dan Eberhart, an oil drilling chief executive officer and prominent Republican donor told Fox News Digital.

Eberhart, who is supportive of the president, said: «Trump’s base is with him, but many ordinary Americans feel the war is unnecessary. Tonight is Trump’s opportunity to explain why this war matters to everyday Americans.»

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President Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that Iran may be seeking a ceasefire, but analysts say real power lies with hardline figures inside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including newly prominent commander Ahmad Vahidi.

Trump did not name the Iranian figure he was referring to, but his comment likely pointed to President Masoud Pezeshkian, writing: «Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!»

Experts caution, however, that Iran’s president does not control decisions of war and peace.  

«He clearly does not have the authority to turn on or turn off a major military conflict with the United States,» Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.

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Instead, analysts say real power lies with senior figures tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Vahidi, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and security official Mohammad Zolghadr, all of whom operate within overlapping centers of influence.

Attention is turning to the new terror chief seen as an extremist pulling strings, Vahidi — a longtime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander whose reemergence highlights a broader shift underway inside Iran’s leadership.

Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, warned that even when Iran signals interest in a «ceasefire,» it may not reflect a Western understanding of the term. 

He pointed to the concept of «hudna,» describing it as «a ceasefire with deception — they stop when they are weak, rebuild their strength, and then attack again, whether against Israel or the United States.» 

Sabti added that such pauses can become «a cycle of violence that does not end,» driven by ideological motivations, and should not be interpreted as a genuine end to hostilities.

Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, and Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Coordinator of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, participate in a ceremony to mark the memory of former IRGC commander, Hossein Salami, who is killed in Israeli attacks, at a mosque in an IRGC organizational house complex in Tehran, Iran, on July 25, 2025.  (Morteza Nikoubazl/Nur Photo via Getty Images)

From covert operations to global attacks

At the center of that uncertainty is Ahmad Vahidi, the new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander. 

«He is a very violent man and belongs to a generation that fought in guerrilla warfare,» Sabti told Fox News Digital.

Sabti described Vahidi as part of an early cadre of Iranian operatives who built ties with militant groups in Lebanon before and after the 1979 revolution, relationships that later became central to Iran’s regional strategy. Some accounts suggest Vahidi trained in camps linked to Palestinian and Lebanese factions in southern Lebanon, helping lay the groundwork for Iran’s long-standing alliance with Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah. 

DESTROY THE REGIME’S POWER WITHOUT OCCUPYING IRAN: A SMARTER WAR PLAN

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf looks on as parliament members chant in support of the IRGC while wearing military uniforms in Tehran, Iran, Feb 1, 2026.  (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)

Vahidi rose through the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and went on to serve as commander of its elite Quds Force in the 1990s, a unit responsible for overseas operations.

He has been linked to some of the deadliest attacks attributed to Iranian-backed networks abroad, including the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina and the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

Sabti said Vahidi was also accused of maintaining connections with al Qaeda figures following the Sept. 11 attacks, reflecting what he described as Iran’s willingness to cooperate with groups targeting Western and Israeli interests.

Despite later holding positions that appeared political or bureaucratic, Sabti said Vahidi never truly stepped away from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s powerful military and intelligence arm, meaning his role remained closely tied to the regime’s security and operational apparatus.

«He always remained part of the Revolutionary Guards — even wearing uniform,» he said. «That’s common in Iran. Even when they move into politics, they stay within the force.»

Sabti also pointed to Vahidi’s alleged role in suppressing Kurdish uprisings in northwestern Iran in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, underscoring his longstanding involvement in internal security operations. 

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A composite image shows several Iranian leaders named in the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program offering up to $10 million for information on key figures tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, top left. (State Department / Rewards for Justice; Khoshiran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

A system driven by power, not position

Vahidi’s renewed prominence comes as Iran’s internal structure appears increasingly fragmented, with authority concentrated in overlapping and sometimes competing networks.

«It’s not clear how coordinated either the military or political actions of the government of the Islamic Republic is today,» Ben Taleblu said.

He described Iran as «a system of men, not a system of laws,» where personal ties and informal influence often outweigh formal titles.

That dynamic has intensified as the war continues. 

«We are seeing the IRGC ascendancy… across a host of Iranian political and security institutions,» he said.

«This IRGC ascendancy will mean a more crass Islamic Republic, but it comes at a time when this regime is militarily less capable than ever before,» he added.

More power, less restraint

Sabti said Vahidi may now be more influential than other prominent figures in Tehran, including parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

«In my view, he is more dominant right now, even if they are coordinated. This is not a time for internal competition,» Sabti said.

He warned that Vahidi’s rise could further harden Iran’s posture.

«He brings even more radicalization into the system and may not want to stop the war, because it serves the interests of the Revolutionary Guards to continue,» Sabti said.

«They could become masters of the region if the United States folds — and that is very much in his interest.»

Trump’s suggestion that Iran is seeking a ceasefire has raised hopes of a potential diplomatic opening, but experts caution that such signals may not reflect a unified position inside Iran. 

«The question is what was shared with President Trump genuine, or is it wheeling and dealing of just one ambitious person?» Ben Taleblu said.

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Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian attends a press conference in Tehran, Iran, Sep. 16, 2024.  (WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Majid Asgaripour via Reuters)

«Pezeshkian clearly does not have the authority to turn on or turn off a major military conflict with the United States,» Ben Taleblu said.

That leaves open the possibility that any outreach could be tactical, fragmented, or even contradictory.

Fox News Digital reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.