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If Khamenei falls, who takes Iran? Strikes will expose power vacuum — and the IRGC’s grip
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As U.S. and Israeli forces strike deep inside Iran — reportedly targeting senior regime officials including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian — the question of who would lead Iran if the Islamic Republic collapses is no longer theoretical.
Iran has retaliated with missile barrages against U.S. positions across the Middle East, and while Iranian state media says top leaders remain alive and have been moved to secure locations, the direct targeting of political and military leadership marks a dramatic escalation.
Yet, despite the intensity of the moment, regional analysts say there is no obvious successor poised to take control of the country.
The real power center: security forces
Experts consistently point to one determining factor: whether Iran’s coercive institutions — particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — fracture or consolidate.
If the IRGC remains cohesive, the most likely outcome is not democratic transition but a harder, more openly security-dominated system. A clerical reshuffle or military-led consolidation could preserve much of the existing power structure even if key figures are removed.
As U.S. and Israeli forces strike deep inside Iran — reportedly targeting senior regime officials including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian — the question of who would lead Iran if the Islamic Republic collapses is no longer theoretical. (Iranian Leader Press Office/Anadolu via Getty Images)
If, however, segments of the IRGC or regular armed forces defect or splinter under pressure from war and internal unrest, a political opening could emerge.
At this stage, there is no confirmed evidence of widespread security defections.
Reza Pahlavi: visible but long in exile
One of the most prominent opposition figures abroad is Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last shah. He has lived outside Iran since the 1979 revolution and has spent decades advocating for a secular, democratic system.
In a recent statement, Pahlavi called the U.S. strikes a «humanitarian intervention» and urged Iran’s military and security forces to abandon the clerical regime. He declared that the Islamic Republic is «collapsing» and called on Iranians to prepare to return to the streets at the appropriate time.
But while Pahlavi has name recognition and support among parts of the diaspora, his actual base of support inside Iran is difficult to measure. He has not lived in the country for more than four decades, and many Iranians remain divided over the legacy of the monarchy.
Analysts note that symbolic visibility — including chants heard during past protests — does not necessarily translate into the organizational infrastructure needed to govern a country of nearly 90 million people.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks with Fox News Channel’s Martha MacCallum during an interview on September 25, 2025, in New York City. (John Lamparski/Getty Images)
Maryam Rajavi and the NCRI: organized but controversial
Maryam Rajavi, leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), has taken a different approach. Her organization announced a provisional government framework aimed at transferring sovereignty to the Iranian people and establishing a democratic republic based on her longstanding ten-point plan.
In a subsequent message, Rajavi called on «patriotic personnel in the armed forces» to stand with the Iranian people and urged regime forces to «lay down their arms and surrender.» She also rejected both clerical rule and what she described as «monarchical fascism,» an apparent reference to restorationist movements linked to the former royal family.
The plan calls for dissolving the IRGC and other security institutions, separating religion from the state, abolishing the death penalty, guaranteeing gender equality and holding elections for a constituent assembly.
The NCRI presents itself as a ready governing alternative.
TRUMP ADMIN RAMPS UP ‘MAXIMUM PRESSURE’ IRAN SANCTIONS AHEAD OF NEW ROUND OF NUCLEAR TALKS
But the group — closely associated with the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) — remains deeply controversial. Its history of armed struggle and years spent in exile have led many analysts to question the depth of its support inside Iran, particularly among younger generations.
Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi said the Ayatollah’s regime engages in a pattern of pretending to negotiate in earnest to buy time. (Paul Morigi/Getty Images)
While some Western political figures have expressed backing over the years, domestic legitimacy remains uncertain.
No clear heir apparent
Despite bold statements from opposition figures, experts caution that Iran’s future leadership is more likely to be shaped inside military barracks and security compounds than in exile press conferences.
Four decades of repression have hollowed out internal political alternatives. No widely recognized civilian leader inside Iran has emerged with cross-factional legitimacy.
If the regime’s leadership were to fall quickly, the immediate struggle would likely be among security elites — not between rival exile figures.
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For now, analysts say, Iran has competing visions but no consensus successor. Whether the country transitions toward a new political system, hardens into military rule or experiences prolonged instability will depend less on declarations abroad and more on whether the regime’s core power structures fracture from within.
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Un incendio obligó a cerrar un centro de datos de Amazon en Emiratos Árabes Unidos en medio de los ataques iraníes
La unidad de computación en la nube de Amazon, AWS, suspendió este domingo las operaciones en uno de sus centros de datos en Emiratos Árabes Unidos después de que objetos no identificados impactaran la instalación, provocando chispas y un incendio que obligó a cortar el suministro eléctrico, según informó la compañía. El incidente ocurrió en medio de una ola de ataques iraníes con misiles y drones contra infraestructura civil y militar en toda la región del Golfo Pérsico.
Según AWS, los objetos impactaron alrededor de las 4:30 de la madrugada, hora del Pacífico. El departamento de bomberos local cortó la electricidad a la instalación y a los generadores mientras trabajaba para extinguir las llamas. La compañía indicó que esperaba autorización para restablecer el suministro eléctrico y que el restablecimiento de la conectividad en la zona afectada tomaría varias horas. Las demás zonas de disponibilidad en Emiratos operan con normalidad.
Cuando la agencia Reuters preguntó a AWS si el incidente estaba relacionado con los ataques iraníes en curso, la compañía no confirmó ni desmintió ninguna conexión. El Ministerio de Defensa de Emiratos reportó que desde el inicio de los ataques iraníes el pasado sábado, las fuerzas aéreas y de defensa antiaérea del país interceptaron y destruyeron 165 misiles balísticos, dos misiles de crucero y 541 drones. Sin embargo, 21 drones lograron impactar objetivos civiles, causando tres muertes de trabajadores migrantes de Pakistán, Nepal y Bangladés, además de 58 heridos.
Los ataques iraníes contra Emiratos forman parte de una represalia masiva tras operaciones conjuntas de Estados Unidos e Israel que resultaron en la muerte del líder supremo iraní, el ayatolá Ali Khamenei, el pasado sábado. Según medios estatales iraníes, los ataques estadounidenses e israelíes causaron al menos 201 muertes en 24 provincias iraníes, incluyendo 148 niñas en una escuela primaria en la ciudad sureña de Minab.
2026 Planet Labs PBC/Handout vía REUTERS
Las estructuras de AWS conocidas como zonas de disponibilidad están compuestas por uno o más centros de datos físicos interconectados dentro de una región geográfica. Estas zonas funcionan como ubicaciones aisladas diseñadas para garantizar la continuidad del servicio en caso de fallos. La región ME-CENTRAL-1, inaugurada en noviembre de 2022, representa la segunda infraestructura de AWS en Medio Oriente junto con la de Baréin.
El Cuerpo de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica de Irán anunció que sus ataques se dirigieron a 27 bases militares donde se despliegan soldados estadounidenses, la base aérea israelí de Tel Nof, el cuartel general del ejército israelí en HaKirya en Tel Aviv y un complejo industrial de defensa. La ofensiva iraní impactó también aeropuertos internacionales en Dubái, Abu Dabi y Kuwait, lo que provocó la suspensión de vuelos y el cierre de espacios aéreos en todo el Golfo Pérsico.
Las autoridades emiratíes activaron protocolos de emergencia en todo el país, emitiendo alertas de alta prioridad a través de teléfonos móviles que instruyeron a la población a buscar refugio inmediato en edificios seguros y mantenerse alejados de ventanas, puertas y áreas abiertas. El Ministerio de Educación ordenó la transición a educación a distancia para todas las escuelas públicas y privadas desde el 2 hasta el 4 de marzo.
La infraestructura de servicios en la nube ha adquirido una importancia estratégica crítica para economías como la de Emiratos, donde sectores financieros, energéticos y de telecomunicaciones dependen de centros de datos para operaciones esenciales. AWS opera miles de servidores en la región ME-CENTRAL-1 que proporcionan servicios a empresas gubernamentales, instituciones financieras y compañías de tecnología en todo Medio Oriente.
Los restos de misiles y drones interceptados cayeron en diversas áreas de Emiratos, causando daños materiales menores en propiedades civiles. En Palm Jumeirah, la isla artificial de Dubái famosa por sus hoteles de lujo, cuatro personas resultaron heridas cuando fragmentos de un misil impactaron un hotel de alta categoría, provocando un incendio. También se reportaron incendios en el puerto de Jebel Ali, uno de los más transitados de Medio Oriente, y en la fachada del icónico hotel Burj Al Arab.
El Ministerio de Defensa de Emiratos confirmó que de los 137 misiles balísticos detectados durante el ataque inicial del sábado, 132 fueron destruidos mientras cinco cayeron al mar. De los 209 drones rastreados, 195 fueron interceptados. Los sistemas de defensa aérea demostraron alta capacidad de respuesta, aunque algunos proyectiles lograron penetrar las defensas y causar daños colaterales.
La escalada regional ha generado disrupciones significativas en el transporte aéreo, con aerolíneas suspendiendo vuelos hacia y desde importantes centros de conexión en Medio Oriente. Mapas de tráfico aéreo mostraron espacios aéreos prácticamente vacíos sobre Irán, Irak, Kuwait, Israel y Baréin tras el inicio de los ataques. Emiratos, que se había posicionado como un refugio de estabilidad y seguridad en una región turbulenta, enfrenta ahora la fragilidad de esa percepción ante una confrontación militar de alcance regional.
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Trump’s Iran strike rocks Texas Senate race as Dems demand ‘war powers,’ GOP applauds president
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SAN ANTONIO, TX – With hours to go until primary day in Texas, the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran is the latest flashpoint in Lone Star State’s high-stakes and combustible Senate showdown.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn and his two primary challengers are rallying around President Donald Trump’s decision to launch the attacks, which are now in their second day and resulted in the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Three American military members were also killed in the fighting.
But the two Democrats vying for their party’s nomination in a bid to try and flip the long-held Republican seat in right-leaning Texas are condemning the airstrikes on Iran.
This year’s Senate showdown in Texas is one of a handful across the country that could determine if Republicans hold their majority in the chamber in the midterm elections. The GOP currently controls the chamber 53-47.
President Donald Trump announced strikes on Iran early Saturday, which eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (President Trump Via Truth Social/Anadolu via Getty Images)
«I think the President did the right thing. It’s amazing to me that President Trump is the only president in my lifetime that is willing to take this kind of decisive action in order to stop the halt of terrorism and also radical Islam,» Cornyn said Sunday in a Fox News Digital interview.
Cornyn praised the operation, saying «this was well planned and was very decisive.» But he added, «There’s still a lot more to be done, and unfortunately, Iran still has a lot of ability to inflict casualties on people in the region.»
The senator’s top primary rival, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, thanked Trump for his «courageous leadership.»
Paxton, a MAGA firebrand and longtime Trump supporter who has survived a slew of scandals over the past decade, said in a social media post that «President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury is yet another overwhelming and historic military success. Khamenei’s been killed and the terroristic regime threatening our troops and nation has been decimated.»
IRAN’S NEAR HALF CENTURY WAR ON AMERICANS
Rep. Wesley Hunt, the Army veteran turned MAGA rising star, also praised the president, saying, «Trump did it again. PEACE THROUGH AMERICAN STRENGTH!»
«Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is DEAD, and now the people of Iran have a chance to be free,» added Hunt, a West Point graduate who flew Apache helicopters during his Army service who is in his second term representing a safe Republican district in the Houston-area.
Trump, whose clout over the GOP remains immense, has stayed neutral to date in the Republican primary. All three candidates, who have sought the president’s endorsement, were in attendance Friday as Trump held an event in Corpus Christi, Texas.
Trump has yet to make an endorsement in the closely-watched primary. (Mandel NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
«They’re in a little race together,» Trump said of Cornyn and Paxton. «You know that, right? A little bit of a race. It’s going to be an interesting one, right? They’re both great people, too.»
Trump also complimented Hunt, and said that all three contenders were engaged in an «interesting election.»
DEMS’ POTENTIAL 2028 HOPEFULS COME OUT AGAINST US STRIKES ON IRAN
The two major Democrats in the race, progressive firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett and rising Democratic Party star state Rep. James Talarico, are chastising Trump for not seeking congressional approval.
«CONGRESS, not the PRESIDENT, but CONGRESS has the EXCLUSIVE authority to declare war! Speaker Johnson needs to call us in IMMEDIATELY & it is time for the House & the Senate to pass a war powers resolution!» Crockett wrote on social media this weekend.
The two Democrats in the race, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, sound decisively different from their GOP counterparts with regard to the strikes. (Stringer/Getty Images)
And Crockett, a vocal Trump critic and foil, asked, «Why is it that this President refuses to even pretend that he cares about following the law?! I’ve been stomping & telling people that this election is life or death!»
Talarico, taking to social media this weekend, emphasized, «No more forever wars.»
But he didn’t make specific comments about the military strikes during a campaign event Sunday in San Antonio, Texas.
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Cornyn criticized the Democratic candidates for not supporting the U.S. operation.
«When the President has, in an act of political courage, ordered the U.S. military, along with our ally Israel, to defeat the number one state sponsor of terrorism and to prevent them from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Whose side do they choose? They choose the Iranian side. It’s just mind-boggling to me,» he argued.
And the senator predicted, «this will continue to be an issue in the midterm elections, because I don’t think that’s what the American people want, to live in a new world where a nuclear-armed terrorist state can literally terrorize not just the region but the world.»
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Hormuz erupts: Attacks, GPS jamming, Houthi threats rock Strait amid US-Israeli strikes
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The Strait of Hormuz region became a flashpoint Sunday after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury triggered electronic warfare activity and multiple «attacks» on vessels along one of the world’s most critical energy waterways, according to reports.
The sudden escalation followed a Feb. 28 warning from U.S. maritime authorities urging commercial vessels to avoid strategic waterways if possible, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, citing heightened security risks.
«It is recommended that vessels keep clear of this area if possible,» the advisory warned.
«The Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters are the most dangerous place right now for commercial shipping,» Jakob P. Larsen, head of maritime security at BIMCO, told Fox News Digital.
«Ships in the Persian Gulf are under threat from Iranian attacks,» Larsen said.
Navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which much of the world’s oil and gas passes, on March 1, 2026. (Sahar AL ATTAR / AFP via Getty Images)
«To protect themselves, most ships stay as far away from Iran as they can,» he added before describing how ships are «trying to depart from the Persian Gulf to get away from the threat.»
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and regional authorities reported multiple maritime incidents listed as «attacks» Sunday.
One vessel west of Sharjah, UAE, was rocked by an explosion from an unknown projectile that detonated close alongside, and another tanker north of Muscat, Oman, was struck above the waterline, sparking a fire that was later brought under control, according to data.
A third vessel northwest of Mina Saqr, UAE, was also hit by a projectile that ignited a blaze aboard, the organization reported.
Compounding the physical threats is a surge in electronic warfare with maritime intelligence firm Windward reporting widespread GPS and Automatic Identification System (AIS) interference, impacting 1,000-plus ships.
IRAN FIRES MISSILES AT US BASES ACROSS MIDDLE EAST AFTER AMERICAN STRIKES ON NUCLEAR, IRGC SITES
A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. (Reuters)
Windward cited widespread navigation disruption near Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, with ships falsely appearing at airports, a nuclear power plant and inland locations.
Several new AIS jamming clusters were also identified across Emirati, Qatari, Omani and Iranian waters, Windward said.
Major shipping company Maersk announced it would reroute some services away from the region, citing crew and cargo safety.
Roughly 20% of global oil and gas exports pass through the Strait, and traffic has already thinned, with some tankers reversing course or switching off AIS signals.
Industry groups also warned of Houthi retaliation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, while analysts cautioned that Iran could seize vessels tied to U.S. or Israeli interests.
«The Houthis have threatened to resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden,» Larsen explained.
KEANE WARNS IRAN STRIKE BECOMING ‘REGIONAL WAR,’ SAYS THREE GULF STATES PREPARING FOR COMBAT
The Strait of Hormuz faces heightened security risks after U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered maritime incidents, prompting shipping companies to reroute vessels.
Ships with business connections to U.S. or Israeli interests are considered more likely targets, though others could be struck deliberately or in error, he said.
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Tanker owners’ association Intertanko also warned members that «the expectation is that the Houthis may respond and recommence attacks on shipping,» although immediate intelligence remained unclear.
«There are no signs of Iranian attempts to close the Strait with sea mines or naval mines, although this can change at short notice,» Larsen added before confirming that GPS interference has «increased significantly following the initiation of hostilities.»
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