INTERNACIONAL
Guerra en Medio Oriente: exigencias “inaceptables” y amenazas alejan un acuerdo de paz entre Irán y Estados Unidos

La guerra en Medio Oriente empieza a entrar en un pantano que preocupa cada vez más a Donald Trump. Es un terreno en el que Irán se mueve más cómodo y que le sirve para desplegar toda su retórica belicista frente a los impredecibles movimientos del presidente estadounidense.
La Casa Blanca presentó una hoja de ruta de 15 puntos a Teherán, a través de Pakistán, para sellar un acuerdo que ponga fin a una guerra que en tres días cumplirá un mes, muchísimo más de lo proyectado por Washington y que hoy no muestra una salida viable.
La respuesta fue inmediata. El gobierno de los ayatollah rechazó la propuesta y contraofertó un plan más acotado, de cinco puntos, que a simple vista es una invitación a continuar las hostilidades.
Irán sabe que la guerra militar está perdida, pero también que su resistencia va por otro camino. Mientras mantenga el cierre de facto del estrecho de Ormuz y tenga a tiro la infraestructura petrolera, hídrica y gasística de los Países del Golfo, amenaza causar un enorme daño a la economía estadounidense, al mercado petrolero y al comercio internacional.
Trump tiene la fuerza militar, pero el tiempo le juega en contra. Si fracasa la opción diplomática solo le quedará la carta de una invasión, acotada pero con un contingente poderoso en el terreno.
No es la mejor imagen para una campaña electoral que se avecina en su país. En siete meses, el 3 de noviembre, se someterá a un virtual referéndum popular en las elecciones de medio término. Necesita cerrar el ‘capítulo Irán’ con un discurso victorioso. Los ayatollah, escondidos y debilitados, tienen tiempo para ojear sus cartas.
¿Es posible un acuerdo?
En ese escenario, las virtuales negociaciones empezaron con ofertas imposibles en ambos bandos.
“Todavía están lejos (de un arreglo). No creo que estén dadas las condiciones para llevar adelante un acuerdo de paz”, dijo a TN el analista Said Chaya, director del Núcleo de Estudios de Medio Oriente de la Universidad Austral.
El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump (AP Foto/Alex Brandon)
Para el especialista, “eso no quita que exista la posibilidad de un alto el fuego en el contexto de las negociaciones. Puede ser que la guerra baje su ´momentum´ esta semana o la próxima, como para decir que hay un proceso de negociación. Pero eso no quiere decir que el problema se vaya a resolver. Esto va para largo“, indicó.
Es la peor opción de Trump. El despliegue de más de 5000 marines en la zona del Golfo marca el preludio de lo que sería una invasión, posiblemente a la isla de Kharg, el mayor centro de producción de crudo de Irán en el estrecho de Ormuz.
Leé también: Tensión en la frontera: así quedó un puente al sur del Líbano luego de los ataques de Israel
Se trata de un escenario preocupante para la dirigencia del Partido Republicano. Ningún aspirante a gobernador o congresista, o quienes buscan su reelección, quiere hacer campaña bajo ataúdes envueltos en la bandera estadounidense.
Cuáles son las exigencias de Estados Unidos
El documento de 15 puntos, o exigencias de la Casa Blanca, llegó a la capital iraní vía Pakistán, un aliado militar de Arabia Saudita y uno de los países atacados por Irán.
Según el sitio N12 News de Israel, Estados Unidos está considerando declarar un alto el fuego de un mes para celebrar negociaciones.
El contenido total del plan no trascendió, pero medios estadounidenses y el Canal 12 israelí puntualizaron que incluye:
- Un alivio de sanciones.
- Cooperación nuclear civil.
- La entrega del uranio enriquecido.
- Límites a las actividades nucleares.
- Supervisión por parte de la Agencia Internacional de Energía Atómica.
- Restricciones a misiles balísticos.
- Garantías para el acceso al transporte marítimo a través del Estrecho de Ormuz.
- El fin del respaldo a los grupos proxy de la región, como el Hezbollah libanés o el Hamas palestino.
Leé también: El petróleo cae casi 6% tras el plan de paz de Trump y crece la incertidumbre por la respuesta de Irán
En contrapartida, Estados Unidos levantaría las sanciones internacionales y apoyaría un programa nuclear civil.

El guía supremo iraní Mojtaba Jamenei (Foto: EFE)
“Si Irán no entiende que ha sido derrotado militarmente y que seguirá siéndolo, Trump se asegurará de que reciba golpes más duros que cualquiera que haya recibido antes. El presidente no fanfarronea y está preparado para desatar el infierno. Irán no debería equivocarse de nuevo”, dijo la vocera de la Casa Blanca, Karoline Leavitt.
Cuál fue la respuesta de Irán
Irán rechazó las exigencias de Trump como “inaceptables” y respondió con un plan de cinco puntos, según una fuente citada por el gubernamental Press TV. El detalle es el siguiente:
- Cese total de las “agresiones y asesinatos” por parte de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán.
- El fin de los combates en todos los frentes en los que participen grupos aliados (como Hezbollah en el Líbano y las milicias proiraníes en Irak).
- El pago de reparaciones de guerra.
- Garantías contra futuros conflictos.
- Reconocimiento de la soberanía de Irán sobre el estrecho de Ormuz como “un derecho natural y legal de Irán”.
The Wall Street Journal agregó otra exigencia: el desmantelamiento de las bases estadounidenses en el Golfo.
“Irán pondrá fin a la guerra cuando lo decida y cuando se cumplan sus condiciones. No se celebrarán negociaciones antes de ese momento”, concluyó la fuente.
Irán, Israel, Donald Trump
INTERNACIONAL
US moves airborne troops, Marines as Iran rejects ceasefire, raising ground war potential

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The U.S. is positioning ground-capable forces in the Middle East as Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal Wednesday, a shift that gives Washington new — though limited and high-risk — options for potential operations inside Iran.
Military experts say the deployments are not a precursor to a large-scale invasion, but instead position the U.S. for targeted, short-duration missions — options that have taken on new relevance as diplomatic off-ramps narrow.
In recent days, the Pentagon has moved ground-capable forces into the region, including around 1,000 paratroopers, with the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division — among them the 1st Brigade Combat Team, a core component of the military’s Immediate Response Force rapid-response unit designed to deploy on short notice to crises anywhere in the world — along with roughly 5,000 Marines and sailors assigned to the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and its Amphibious Ready Group, led by the amphibious assault ship Tripoli.
Marine expeditionary units and airborne forces often are among the first U.S. units deployed in a conflict, designed to rapidly establish an initial presence and respond to emerging crises.
IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
The U.S. is positioning ground-capable forces in the Middle East after Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal, a shift that gives Washington new—though limited and high-risk—options for potential operations inside Iran. (Vanderwolf Images via Getty)
The White House has emphasized the deployments are meant to preserve flexibility as the conflict evolves — a posture that now carries greater weight after Iran rejected a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal.
«The president likes to maintain options at his disposal,» press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday at a White House press briefing. «It’s the Pentagon’s job to provide those options to the commander in chief.»
Lawmakers on the Armed Services Committees emerged from a classified briefing on Iran Wednesday expressing frustration over a lack of clarity from the administration.
«We want to know more about what’s going on, what the options are, and why they’re being considered,» House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., told reporters. «We’re just not getting enough answers.»
«Let me put it this way, I can see why he might have said that,» Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Mo., chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in agreement.
Military experts said the types of forces being deployed point to a more limited set of options on the ground.
«It is not for the type of ground invasion that we saw in Iraq,» James Robbins, Institute of World Politics dean and former special assistant to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, told Fox News Digital. «There simply aren’t enough troops.»
The U.S. already maintains roughly 40,000 troops to 50,000 troops across the Middle East, with recent deployments adding several thousand more forces, including Marines and airborne units.
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.
What limited ground options could look like
If U.S. forces were used inside Iran, experts say operations likely would focus on specific, high-value objectives rather than holding territory.
One likely focus would be along Iran’s southern coast near the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global shipping lane that would become a central pressure point in any limited U.S. ground option.
Iranian forces have positioned missiles, drones and naval assets throughout the region, creating a persistent threat environment for any operation.
«The most logical step is to try to secure the straits by taking some key positions inside Iran,» Ehud Eilam, a former official with Israel’s Ministry of Defense, told Fox News Digital.

USS Tripoli is headed to the Middle East. (Edgar Su/Reuters)
«For the Marines, it would probably be somewhere along the Iranian side of the Persian Gulf, around the straits or nearby to establish a base of operations,» Robbins said.
Trump has said the U.S. Navy could escort commercial tankers through the waterway if necessary, as Iranian threats have disrupted traffic in one of the world’s most critical energy choke points. But no plans have been enacted to do so, according to officials.
But even limited objectives would be difficult to secure or sustain under constant threat.
«It’s a large gulf and there’s lots of places you could drop a mine or shoot a cruise missile from or shoot a drone from,» said Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet.
Beyond coastal positions, U.S. forces could be used for short-duration missions targeting specific military assets — such as missile launch sites, radar systems or other infrastructure that cannot be fully neutralized from the air.
AFTER THE STRIKES, HOW WOULD THE US SECURE IRAN’S ENRICHED URANIUM?
Eilam said special operations forces could also be used for targeted missions inside Iran, including striking military infrastructure or capturing key personnel.
«They may come and capture a certain objective, destroy some Iranian radar, or some Iranian facility, take some generals into captivity,» Eilam said.
Such operations would be aimed at degrading Iran’s capabilities and supporting broader air and naval operations, rather than holding territory.
Some experts noted that small special operations teams can operate inside Iran without public visibility, making it difficult to assess the full scope of current activity.

(Photo by Elif Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Securing nuclear infrastructure
One potential objective for ground forces would be securing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Nuclear experts have insisted that the material could not be destroyed by airstrikes alone — a presence on the ground would be essential.
Robbins said U.S. troops could be used to secure nuclear material or facilities — but not under active fire.
«That would have to be more under a permissive environment,» Robbins said. «It could not really well be done under fire.»
Iran is believed to have roughly 970 pounds of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, though international inspectors say they can no longer verify the size or location of that stockpile.
In past conflicts, U.S. forces have been tasked with securing weapons sites or sensitive materials even in unstable or contested environments, particularly during and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, when specialized units conducted extensive searches of hundreds of facilities.
Any such operation in Iran would be complex. Key nuclear facilities are hardened, dispersed, and in some cases buried deep underground, making them difficult to access or secure quickly.
What the US is unlikely to do — and why
Experts cautioned that some of the more aggressive scenarios being discussed — such as seizing Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island — are unlikely to be pursued.
While such a move could, in theory, choke off a major source of revenue for Iran, they said similar effects could be achieved through less exposed means.
«You could achieve that desired outcome just by constraining the flow that comes out of Kharg after it gets outside the Gulf,» Donegan said.
Robbins also questioned the strategic value of seizing the island.
«To what end would be the question,» he said. «I don’t see an endgame to seizing Kharg.»
Experts warned that occupying territory like Kharg would expose U.S. forces as fixed targets while creating major logistical challenges, requiring continuous resupply under the threat of Iranian missile and drone attacks.
«Occupying territory creates a vulnerability, because you now become a target,» Donegan said.
Instead, they said U.S. forces are better suited for limited operations ashore that do not require holding ground.
«Doing something ashore to eliminate things, because you have to be on the ground to do it, and leaving — that’s also a capability,» Donegan said.
The buildup also has included increased activity from U.S. military transport aircraft, including C-17 and C-130 airlifters used to move troops and heavy equipment into the region, part of the logistical groundwork that would be required for any potential ground operations.
Iran prepares defenses at Kharg and across the region
Behind the scenes, Iranians likely are preparing for all contingencies in a ground war. Iranian officials dismissed Trump’s talk of «productive» negotiations as «psychological warfare» and negotiations weren’t happening.
Iranian Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a military spokesperson, mocked the U.S. attempts at a ceasefire deal Wednesday in a video statement, asking, «Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?»
Any U.S. ground operation targeting Kharg Island would face an environment Iran already has prepared and militarized.
The island is not just an oil hub but a coastal military hub. Recent U.S. strikes hit more than 90 Iranian military targets on the island, including missile storage bunkers and naval mine facilities.
Iran has been moving additional forces and air defenses, as well as laying traps, at Kharg for weeks in preparation for a potential U.S. operation to seize the island, sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.
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Beyond the island itself, Iranian forces have increased military readiness across the region.
Reporting shows the repositioning of missile units, expanded air defense activity, and increased naval patrols in the Strait of Hormuz — part of a broader effort to disperse assets and reduce vulnerability to strikes.
war with iran, conflicts defense, middle east foreign policy
INTERNACIONAL
Tensión con Estados Unidos: un Castro podría ser el sucesor de Díaz-Canel en Cuba

Dos primos Castro
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INTERNACIONAL
US troops brace for ‘hit-and-run’ guerilla attacks as 82nd Airborne deploys to Iran, military analyst warns

US deploying 1,500 troops from 82nd Airborne
Chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports the latest on the conflict with Iran as about 1,500 additional troops and key staff are deployed to the Middle East.
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Iran could significantly increase U.S. casualties if its elite military and proxy forces shift to guerrilla-style hit-and-run attacks in the region, a leading military analyst has warned.
Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy spoke as the Pentagon moved elements of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division into the Middle East amid a new escalation in the conflict, according to reports.
«Iran has large infantry units in its military that are equivalent to the brigade combat team of the 82nd Airborne,» Eisenstadt, a former U.S. Army Reserve officer, told Fox News Digital.
«The 82nd Force is too small to cause significant harm to Iran, but it is large enough to be vulnerable to Iranian strikes, and this would enable Iran to significantly increase U.S. casualties,» he said.
HEGSETH WARNS ‘MORE CASUALTIES’ EXPECTED IN OPERATION EPIC FURY AGAINST IRAN
The 82nd Airborne Division deployment to the Middle East is intended to pressure Iran into accepting U.S. ceasefire terms, military analyst Michael Eisenstadt says. (Sarah Blake Morgan/AP Photo)
Eisenstadt, who has worked as a U.S. government military analyst, claimed that, even if major conventional operations begin to wind down in the Middle East region, the danger may only evolve rather than disappear.
«We could see an end to major combat operations, with activity shifting to guerrilla-style hit-and-run attacks in the Gulf and other gray-zone activities by Iran,» he said.
«Think of the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq, in which we had to contain the Iraqis for a decade after a very successful war.»
US COULD TAKE IRAN’S MAIN OIL EXPORT HUB ‘AT A TIME OF OUR CHOOSING,’ JACK KEANE SAYS

Naval units from Iran and Russia simulate the rescue of a hijacked vessel during joint drills, Feb. 19, at the Port of Bandar Abbas in Hormozgan, Iran. (Iranian Army/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin reported Wednesday that the U.S. has ordered the deployment of an additional 82nd Airborne forces to the region.
The contingent is expected to include Maj. Gen. Brandon R. Tegtmeier, the division commander, elements of his headquarters staff, and infantry battalions from the division’s Immediate Response Force.
Officials also indicated that the total number of troops ultimately sent could still change.
Eisenstadt said this new deployment is intended to increase pressure on Tehran as the U.S. pushes for new ceasefire terms, set in place by President Donald Trump.
WINNING THE BATTLES, LOSING THE WAR? AMERICA MUST DEFINE THE ENDGAME IN IRAN

President Donald Trump speaks with the media before boarding Air Force One, Monday, at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo)
«This deployment is intended to create leverage over Iran and pressure it to accept U.S. terms for a ceasefire agreement. It would also create military options if Iran rejects those terms,» he said.
In that scenario, he said, the 82nd could potentially operate alongside Marine expeditionary units in operations to seize and hold terrain, including Kharg Island, located roughly 20 miles off Iran’s Gulf coast.
U.S. forces struck military targets there March 13, destroying more than 90 Iranian military sites while deliberately sparing key oil infrastructure, according to multiple reports.
IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Satellite view of Kharg Island, located in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Iran. (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2024)
«The brigade combat team of the 82nd could work with the 11th and 31st MEUs, or independently, to seize and hold terrain — such as Kharg Island,» Eisenstadt said.
«This would provide leverage over Iran by denying it the ability to export oil and helping end the war on terms favorable to the U.S.»
«There are risks involved though, because Iranian units on the mainland could bombard Kharg Island and inflict casualties on U.S. troops there also,» Eisenstadt said.
JACK KEANE WARNS CEASEFIRE WITH IRAN WOULD ‘PLAY RIGHT INTO THEIR HANDS’ AS TRUMP SIGNALS DEAL PROGRESS

President Donald Trump warned on Saturday that the U.S. could strike Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. (Aaron Schwartz/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2025 via Getty Images)
The latest military buildup comes as the conflict that began with Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28, has also centered on the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran restricting access.
«The 82nd deployment is intended to increase psychological pressure on Iran and support efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz so it can once again be used by all countries,» Eisenstadt explained.
The 82nd Airborne is one of the U.S. military’s premier rapid-response units, trained to parachute into hostile or contested territory to secure key ground and airfields.
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Portions of the division have also spent recent days at the Joint Readiness Training Center, sharpening infiltration, surveillance, combat and resupply skills, Axios reported.
«Iranian military officials have welcomed news of the dispatch of these units to the Gulf because it potentially creates options for them to impose costs on the U.S.,» Eisenstadt said.
war with iran, wars, iran, us marines, military, pentagon, world
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