«Nobody knows who to talk to,» President Donald Trump said Tuesday at the White House, describing what he portrayed as both chaos and opportunity inside Iran’s leadership. «But we’re actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly.» 

His remarks come as the U.S. claims it is engaged in talks with a «top» Iranian figure, even as Tehran publicly denies negotiations are taking place.

The question now is not just whether talks are happening, but whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to deliver. With U.S.-Israel strikes on senior Iranian leadership and growing internal fractures, Iran appears to be operating less like a centralized theocracy and more like a wartime system run by overlapping power centers, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.

Here’s who matters now.

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The IRGC: The real power behind the state

Across intelligence assessments and recent reporting, one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the dominant force in Iran’s political system.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Washington, D.C., think tank, said the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend. 

«No doubt both the 12-Day war and this current conflict have trimmed the commanding heights of the Islamic Republic’s political and military leadership,» he said.  «But it has also expedited the trend lines inherent in Iranian politics, which is the dominance of the security forces and the ascendance of the IRGC.»

«Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker than ever before and more of a national security rump state than ever before,» he said. 

«It shouldn’t particularly preoccupy Washington, who is and isn’t offering negotiations,» Ben Taleblu added. «The preeminent preoccupation of Washington has to be working toward a military win at a political win, and that does not come by working with the IRGC, but actually beating them on the battlefield and supporting the forces most arrayed against them in Iran, which are the Iranian people.»

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military personnel are walking along Enghelab (Revolution) Ave. as an Iranian Kheibar surface-to-surface missile is being unveiled during a military rally in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 24, 2023.  (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The command room: Supreme National Security Council

If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the power in Iran, the Supreme National Security Council appears to be the mechanism through which that power is exercised.

The Supreme National Security Council is Iran’s top forum for coordinating military and foreign policy, bringing together senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and government officials under the authority of the supreme leader. It was established after the 1979 revolution and has played a central role in managing major crises, from nuclear negotiations to wartime operations.

Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, as secretary of the council, reinforcing its central role in coordinating military and political decisions, Reuters reported Tuesday.

A Middle Eastern official source with knowledge of the system described the structure. 

«Right now, the power is in the hands of the IRGC,» the source said. «The Supreme National Security Council makes the decisions, of course, with the backing of the majority of IRGC commanders.»

A mourner holds a poster depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor to his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the campaign in Tehran, Iran, March 11, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/The Associated Press )

Mojtaba Khamenei: The supreme leader in name

Formally, Iran’s system centers on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. But his actual grip on power remains uncertain.

Khamenei inherited the position’s sweeping authority following his father’s death, but «lacks the automatic authority enjoyed by his father,» the Middle Eastern official said.

Moreover, he has not appeared publicly since taking power and only has issued written statements, raising questions about both his health and his ability to govern, after reportedly being injured in the initial Feb. 28 U.S.–Israeli strikes that killed his father and other senior Iranian leaders.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, suggested his role may currently be limited: «For the time being, since Mojtaba has been injured, it seems he’s a hologram and not holding power. However, if Mojtaba recovers, he will be involved in ruling Iran. He is not just a figurehead. But anyhow, for the time being, the control of Iran is in the hands of the revolutionary guards.»

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Ghalibaf: The man at the center of Trump’s claim

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a public event in Iran in 2024.  (Hossein Beris / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

Trump’s statement that he is speaking to a «top person» has focused attention on one name in particular: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

The White House is quietly exploring Ghalibaf as a potential interlocutor and even a possible future leader, Axios reported.

A former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and current parliament speaker, Ghalibaf represents a hybrid figure inside the system, bridging military credentials and political authority.

He was one of the key security figures involved in the crackdown on student protests in July 1999 and has run for president four times since 2005.

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Ghalibaf is expected to meet U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the capital of Pakistan as early as the end of the week. 

Ben Taleblu said: «Those who see the ascendants of someone like Ghalibaf, who is an IRGC veteran, having extended power outside his traditional civilian rule, have missed the decades of how personality, not profession, has been the driving force in Iranian politics for the past few decades. I would also say those who worry about the IRGC background of the Supreme National Security Council are all that in Iran today, may have missed the fact that the past few Supreme National Security Council Secretaries, Shamkhani, Larijani, Ahmadian, all also had IRGC backgrounds.»

At the same time, Ghalibaf has publicly denied engaging in talks with the United States, and no direct confirmation of negotiations has been provided by either side.

Araghchi: The diplomat carrying messages

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister following their talks in Moscow on April 18, 2025. (Getty Images)

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains one of the most visible figures internationally.

If talks were to take place, Araghchi likely would be part of the Iranian delegation alongside Ghalibaf, Reuters reported.

But analysts caution that his role is limited. He may act as a channel for communication, but does not set policy independently. 

Strategic decisions, particularly on war and negotiations, are still shaped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader security establishment.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the head of the judiciary and Alireza Arafi, deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, attend the meeting of the interim leadership council of Iran in an unknown location, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, March 1, 2026.  (IRIB/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)

The wider power circle: generals, clerics and enforcers

Beyond the headline figures, a broader group of officials who continue to shape Iran’s direction can be identified.

These include Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior clerical and political figures such as Saeed Jalili and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.

Each represents a different pillar of the system: military power, regional proxy operations, control of strategic waterways, internal repression and religious legitimacy.

Together, they form what analysts describe as a fragmented but resilient governing network.

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A billboard depicting Iran’s supreme leaders since 1979: (left to right) Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini (until 1989), Ali Khamenei (until 2026), and Mojtaba Khamenei (incumbent) is displayed above a highway in Tehran on March 10, 2026. (AFP/Via Getty Images)

Despite internal divisions, Iran’s leadership remains united on one core objective: survival of the regime.

Kuperwasser described the split: «There are the more pragmatic elites, like Araghchi, Rouhani, and Zarif. There are also the hardliners who have usually held the upper hand … But they are united in one issue — that the regime should survive and stay in power.»

Iran’s U.N. mission did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication. 

FIRST ON FOX: As new Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin prepared to be sworn in, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers continued operations, arresting child predators, rapists and domestic abusers across the country.

According to DHS, in just one day of operations, ICE arrested illegal aliens convicted of serious crimes in Utah, Ohio, New York and Texas. The agency said these arrests align with statistics showing that 70% of illegal aliens arrested by ICE have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges in the U.S.

This comes as Mullin, newly confirmed by the Senate, is sworn in as President Donald Trump’s new DHS secretary. Mullin, who until now served as a Republican senator from Oklahoma, replaces former South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

Commenting on the arrests, DHS Acting Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis told Fox News Digital that «under President Trump and Secretary Mullin, criminal illegal aliens are not welcome in the United States.»

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«If you come to our country illegally and break our laws, we will arrest you, deport you, and you will never return,» said Bis.

«Yesterday, the heroic men and women of ICE arrested multiple child predators, rapists, domestic abusers and other heinous criminals,» she added.

Among those arrested by ICE on Monday was Salvadoran illegal Oscar Edgardo Rogel-Gomez, who was convicted of sexual abuse of a child in St. George, Utah.

In Ohio, ICE officers arrested Alcides Ordonez-Cruz, an illegal alien from Honduras, who was convicted of third-degree gross sexual imposition and endangering children in Van Wert County, according to DHS.

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Left to right: Oscar Edgardo Rogel-Gomez, Alcides Ordonez-Cruz, Jose Gonzalez-Diaz, Jose Vazquez-Cardoza and Jose Simaj-Barrera. (Christopher Dilts/Bloomberg via Getty Images; DHS)

Officers also arrested two Salvadoran illegals in Riverhead, New York, on Monday: Jose Gonzalez-Diaz and Jose Vazquez-Cardoza. DHS said that both Gonzalez-Diaz and Vazquez-Cardoza have been convicted of rape.

In Harris County, Texas, home to the state’s largest city, Houston, ICE officers arrested Jose Simaj-Barrera, an illegal from Guatemala. According to DHS, Simaj-Barrera was convicted of assault of a family member.

Mullin was confirmed by the Senate on Monday, following a short but at times explosive confirmation process. He is the ninth secretary to lead DHS and follows a turbulent tenure under Noem, who oversaw the agency during a period of both record deportations and intense controversy.

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Federal ICE police officers patrol a suburban street. (Christopher Dilts/Getty Images)

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This comes as DHS continues to operate under lapsed funding. Democrats in Congress have made renewed funding for the agency contingent on sweeping reforms they say are necessary.

Despite these challenges, Mullin appeared confident during his swearing-in ceremony, telling the president, «I won’t let you down.»

Following his swearing in, Mullin told Fox News Digital in an emailed statement that «as the Secretary of Homeland Security, I look forward to continuing President Trump’s mission to safeguard the American people and defend the homeland.» 

«I want to thank President Trump and my Senate colleagues for trusting me with this crucial role,» said Mullin. 

«My first priority,» he said, «is to get the Department funded so the incredible patriots that support our 22 critical agencies receive a paycheck and can continue their critical work of keeping our nation safe.»

«DHS is bigger than any political party,» he added. «It’s time to end the partisan bickering that threatens our national security and put the American people first.» 

Ambiguo, contradictorio e imprevisible, Donald Trump lanzó una sesgada carta diplomática para ponerle fin a la ya incómoda guerra en Irán.

La estrategia buscó golpear a Teherán. Entre desmentidas y consignas belicistas, el gobierno de los ayatollah teme que esta iniciativa solo sea una jugada para crear desconfianza entre la cúpula iraní y ganar tiempo para lanzar una invasión terrestre que le permita reabrir el estrecho de Ormuz y declarar una victoria total.

Las anunciadas negociaciones bilaterales y la virtual tregua de cinco días dada por el presidente estadounidense cayeron en la capital iraní como una poderosa bomba retórica cuyas esquirlas salpicaron a los distintos frentes de poder de la Revolución Islámica.

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Trump subió la apuesta este martes desde su despacho en la Casa Blanca: “Estampos negociando en este momento. Irán aceptó comprometerse a no desarrollar armas nucleares y entregó un regalo muy grande” relacionado con el petróleo y el gas, que vale una cantidad de dinero tremenda

“Sea cierta o no, la declaración de Trump (…) ya está teniendo un impacto: alimenta la desconfianza dentro del liderazgo de Teherán y alivia las tensiones en los mercados petroleros mundiales, incluso cuando los funcionarios iraníes niegan cualquier contacto de este tipo», escribió Irán Internacional, un medio del exilio iraní que transmite desde Londres.

El análisis es simple: “Trump está utilizando la ambigüedad como arma política y psicológica dentro de la República Islámica. Al afirmar que ha estado hablando con una figura iraní de alto rango sin nombrarla, está sembrando dudas y sospechas entre lo que queda de la cúpula dirigente”, afirmó.

El contexto es demasiado complejo. Los funcionarios iraníes viven escondidos por temor a ser “eliminados” por Israel, como ocurrió con el guía supremo, Alí Jamenei, y decenas de personeros de alto rango. No hay reuniones secretas y numerosas en un gobierno que no se caracteriza por ser monolítico y que tiene varios actores de enorme poder.

“Cada figura importante se preguntará ahora: ¿Quién está hablando con Washington? ¿Quién busca una salida? ¿Qué se les oculta a los demás? Al no nombrar a nadie, Trump hace que todos en Teherán se pregunten quién está hablando con Washington“, añadió el informe.

¿Hay negociaciones entre Estados Unidos e Irán?

La pregunta hoy es si esas negociaciones de verdad existen. El ejemplo de Cuba es relevante. La Revolución cubana negó durante semanas la existencia de negociaciones directas hasta que el peso de la evidencia obligó al presidente, Miguel Díaz-Canel, a reconocer el diálogo. Trump no mentía.

Por ahora Irán lo niega. Pero la jugada genera ruido en el frente de guerra.

“Es muy difícil saberlo. Trump se caracteriza por ser errático e imprevisible. Por un lado, bien podría estar buscando una salida elegante de la guerra, sobre todo luego de que pusiera un ultimátum que los iraníes no iban a respetar”, dijo a TN el analista internacional Federico Gaón, especializado en Medio Oriente.

Para este analista, “quizás no se iniciaron negociaciones con los iraníes. Pero anunciar un supuesto progreso diplomático, aunque inventado, crea una narrativa conducente a una desescalada mutua, que los iraníes podrían aprovechar”.

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“En contraste, Trump podría estar comprando tiempo para recalibrar y quizás autorizar un desembarco de tropas en la isla Kharg, a miras de abrir el estrecho de Ormuz. Es difícil decir con exactitud lo que Trump esté planeando, y allí su estilo característico en política exterior, sea para bien o para mal”, afirmó.

La isla de Kharg es el principal centro de exportación de petróleo de Irán y se encuentra enclavada en ese paso estratégico virtualmente cerrado por Irán y por donde pasaba el 20% del crudo y gas licuado del mundo.

Mientras está en progreso la tregua, un contingente de 4500 infantes de marina estadounidenses se dirige a Medio Oriente. La misión incluye un batallón de infantería con el apoyo de helicópteros, cazas F-35 y vehículos blindados de desembarco, informó The Washington Post. El Pentágono también aceleró el despliegue de la 11/a Unidad Expedicionaria de Marines, desde San Diego.

Pero hay más. Fox News anunció este martes que Trump se dispone a enviar a Medio Oriente a la 82ª División Aerotransportada de infantería.

“Irán está jugando a mantener la unidad dentro de Irán. Si en verdad hay o no negociaciones, el régimen irani lo va a negar porque no es fácil mantener la unidad. No es un régimen monolítico”, dijo a TN el analista Jairo Lugo Ocando, decano de la Facultad de Comunicación de la Universidad de Sharjah en los Emiratos Árabes Unidos.

Uno por uno, cuáles son los funcionarios “potables” para Washington

Trump quiere que sus servicios de inteligencia le señalen a la Delcy Rodríguez iraní. Pero Irán no es Venezuela y la Revolución islámica no es la Revolución Bolivariana.

El nuevo guía supremo, Mojtaba Jamenei, hijo de su predecesor, no está en la lista de Washington como puente de diálogo. De hecho, está en otra lista, la de funcionarios iraníes que Israel busca eliminar.

Distintas fuentes citadas por Irán Internacional y los sitios estadounidenses Axios y Político mencionaron que hay tres funcionarios del gobierno de los ayatollah que aparecen en ese reducido listado “diplomático” que maneja la Casa Blanca, más una organización clave. Ellos son:

• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. A los 64 años, es el actual presidente del Parlamento. Exgeneral de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica y exalcalde de Teherán, se lo considera el funcionario civil de mayor rango en el círculo de toma de decisiones. Además es un colaborador cercano de Mojtaba Khamenei y fue una figura clave en las conversaciones que pusieron fin a la guerra de 12 días del año pasado. Sin embargo, negó en forma tajante que haya negociaciones en curso con Estados Unidos. Según Político, Washington lo ve como “un futuro líder”. No obstante, está comprometido con la preservación del orden islamista iraní.
• Abbas Araghchi. Es el canciller de Irán desde 2024. Con 63 años, se lo considera un diplomático y político con amplia experiencia. Viene de liderar dos rondas de conversaciones nucleares con Washington interrumpidas por el ataque estadounidense-israelí del 28 de febrero. The Wall Street Journal lo describió como una figura “leal al régimen y un negociador implacable”. Funcionarios estadounidenses citados por Axios afirmaron que el ministro no tendría suficiente poder para sellar un acuerdo, pero podría ser clave para sentarse a negociar.
• Masoud Pezeshkian. Es desde 2024 el presidente del país, un cargo importante, pero supeditado al poder omnipresente del guía supremo. A los 71 años, se lo ve como un representante “potable” porque no está en el centro de las decisiones bélicas. También se destaca su perfil de “reformista” en un país dominado por el “conservadorismo religioso”, al que derrotó en las últimas elecciones. Tras el asesinato de Ali Jamenei, se lo sumó al Consejo de Liderazgo interino.
• El Cuerpo de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica. Es el gran poder de la Revolución Islámica. Se sospecha que fue el que impuso a Mojtaba Jamenei como líder supremo. Mantiene un enorme poder político, económico y militar. Además tiene bajo su ala a las fuerzas voluntarias Basiji, un cuerpo parapolicial encargado de la represión interna. La inteligencia estadounidense considera que ningún acuerdo puede alcanzarse sin su aprobación. “¿Seguirán los hombres que controlan los lanzamisiles las indicaciones de una figura política que busca una salida fácil? ¿O verán a quien habla con Washington no como alguien que toma decisiones, sino como un traidor que merece castigo o la muerte?“, advirtió Irán Internacional.

Un funcionario estadounidense citado por Politico afirmó: “Se trata de instalar a alguien como Delcy Rodríguez en Venezuela, a quien le digamos: ‘Te vamos a mantener ahí. No te vamos a sacar. Vas a trabajar con nosotros. Nos vas a dar un buen trato, un primer acuerdo sobre el petróleo’”.

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Para Irán Internacional, todo “esto no afecta solo a los altos mandos. Los funcionarios de menor rango también reciben el mismo mensaje. Si empiezan a creer que algunos de sus líderes buscan discretamente una salida, se sentirán más inseguros, más desmoralizados y más propensos a desertar”.

“Al mismo tiempo, los sectores más intransigentes se volverán aún más agresivos contra las figuras que consideran menos rígidas y comenzarán a buscar al supuesto traidor dentro del sistema, especialmente después de que Trump sugiriera que incluso Mojtaba Jamenei desconoce estos contactos. En un liderazgo que vive en la clandestinidad, la ambigüedad no es solo retórica. Es un arma», concluyó.