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Trump wagers US economy in high-stakes tariff gamble at 100-day mark

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President Donald Trump campaigned for a second term on pledges to lower prices, create jobs and impose tough tariffs on imports, especially from China. 

Dubbing himself the «Tariff Man» last fall, he told an audience at the Economic Club of Chicago, «To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff.» However, in his first months in office, it is unclear whether Trump can, or should, implement the harsh reciprocal tariffs he announced in April against dozens of countries.

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Now, 100 days into his second term, economists told Fox News Digital they see these proposed reciprocal tariffs as politically motivated, unnecessary and failing to secure the benefits from U.S. trading partners that Trump had been hoping for.

CHINA IS ‘CAVING’ TO TRUMP’S TRADE WAR STRATEGY, EXPERT SIGNALS

President Donald Trump holds a «Foreign Trade Barriers» document as he delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2025. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo)

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Instead, they warned, Trump’s tariffs could grind billions of dollars in trade to a halt between the world’s two largest economies, disrupt global supply chains and risk torpedoing the U.S. economy into a major slump or recession.

When Trump took office, chances of recession «were probably about 10%,» Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, told Fox News Digital in an interview. «Now, they’re up to around 55%.» 

It is unclear whether Trump will continue to push through with these unpopular tariffs, which are slated to take force in early July. In the near-term, uncertainty and volatility remain.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 28, 2025, in New York City. As President Trump's escalating trade war and fresh signs of reinvigorated inflation concern investors, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) dropped more than 700 points or nearly 1.7%. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on March 28, 2025 amid President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Short-term tariff impact

Trump announced tariffs on April 2, dubbed «Liberation Day.» The announcement included both a 10% universal baseline tariff and plans to enact larger tariffs on dozens of other countries, including China.

These new import taxes immediately sent stock markets into free-fall, triggering one of the largest single-day S&P 500 losses since World War II, and prompting deep and unyielding uncertainty over possible next moves.

«The only thing that’s happened that has pushed the odds of a recession up so high, so fast, is chaos coming from out of the White House,» Wolfers said.

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Trump subsequently paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to encourage the administration to make «deals» with countries on trade and encourage more investment in U.S. manufacturing. Even so, some prices have already risen in anticipation of higher costs under the new tariff regime.

Uncertainty has also played a role. Trump’s tariff announcement in April prompted a number of large container ships to abruptly halt their shipments to the U.S. earlier this month and turn back to their original ports. This means that more consumers will see a price hike for everyday products, likely at certain big-box retailer stores like Walmart or Target, as early as next month. 

These price hikes are «not showing up tomorrow, but will show up over the next few months, as scarcities develop and American retailers have to find other sources – that might take a while,» David H. Feldman, an economist and professor at William & Mary College, said in an interview.

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TRUMP’S ULTIMATUM TO FEDERAL WORKERS: RETURN TO OFFICE ‘OR BE TERMINATED’

Donald Trump

President Donald Trump arrives for a presentation ceremony in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

While Trump says tariffs will target foreign competitors and reduce the trade deficit, the costs will fall mostly on working- and middle-class Americans who buy the bulk of imported goods.

Wolfers said Trump’s focus on the trade «deficit» is based on a common misconception.

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«What that means is we sell China a small amount of stuff, and they sell us a large amount of stuff,» he explained. However, for every dollar bill that goes to China, the U.S. gets something for it that Americans want to buy, like T-shirts. 

«We have a dollar deficit – but we have a stuff surplus.» 

Potential for deescalation 

There are few signs that Trump’s tariffs will deliver the gains he sought, such as onshoring U.S. production or securing better trade deals, particularly with Asian countries.

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Instead, experts warn these countries are likely to circumvent U.S. markets and supply chains over time.

«If these tariffs stay in place, there will be hardly any trade between the U.S. and China,» by the second half of the year, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in an interview.

Roughly $650 billion in annual trade between the two countries is at risk, along with knock-down effects on global commerce in the long term.

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 WORLD LEADERS REACT AS TRUMP RE-ENTERS THE WHITE HOUSE

Trump and Xi

President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Trump’s tariffs also discard decades of international understanding that has depoliticized trade disputes, Feldman said.

The U.S. is «moving from a system that at least was based on mutually acceptable rules of behavior to a system that does not have that as its anchor,» Feldman, whose research focuses on global trade policy, told Fox News Digital. That shift allows the government to target foreign nations individually and offer selective tariff relief to firms and industries «if they do ‘our’ bidding,» he argued. 

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«America is now master of the shakedown.» 

Donald Trump waves at reporters

President Donald Trump gestures to members of the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on April 3, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Trump spoke a day after announcing sweeping new tariffs targeting goods imported into the U.S. on countries including China, Japan and India. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Next steps 

After market backlash, Trump appears to be warming to the idea of easing his proposed 145% reciprocal tariffs on China, which has vowed to impose its own retaliatory measures on U.S. goods.

Economists say he is more likely to do so if the economy sours, or he sees a major drop in poll numbers, if the past is precedent. 

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Still, any path to deescalation remains uncertain. Just last week, China denied Trump’s claim that the two countries were negotiating a tariff deal, after he asserted in an interview that he had reached «200 deals» on trade.

Economists believe Trump will at least partially scale back the tariffs before July but warn he is playing a high-stakes game of brinkmanship that could hit U.S. consumers and businesses hardest.

«What I worry about is that the immediate impact of uncertainty is on business investment in trade-exposed industries, leading to a recession,» Feldman said. «But it could get worse, if it transmits into a financial panic. And  if everyone starts to say, ‘geez, I got to get into gold and cash, I can’t be in Treasury bills.’ If we move into a flight to cash, all bets are off.» 

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Should that happen, he said, «We could slide into 2008 all over again.»

A man watches television screens showing news reports about the stock market

A television broadcasts market news on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York on Friday, April 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump has refused to concede that his early days have been anything but a major success.

In a recent interview with Time magazine, he touted his first 100 days as «very successful,» saying «people [are] writing that it was the best first month, and best second month, and really the best third month» for a U.S. president.

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He dismissed stock market volatility and rising inflation as temporary «market fluctuation,» calling it a «transition period» that would level out.

When asked if he would consider it a win if tariffs remained as high as 50% on imports a year from now, Trump said he would.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP 

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«Total victory,» he said. 

«Everybody is going to benefit.»

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Trump’s First 100 Days,Donald Trump,Politics,Trade,Taxes

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Tailandia advirtió que los enfrentamientos armados con Camboya podrían derivar en una guerra “a gran escala”

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El primer ministro de Tailandia advirtió que los enfrentamientos con Camboya “podrían derivar en una guerra” (REUTERS)

Tailandia advirtió este viernes que los enfrentamientos armados con Camboya podrían escalar a una guerra a gran escala, en el segundo día consecutivo de hostilidades que ha dejado al menos 16 muertos y obligado a evacuar a más de 138.000 personas en ambos lados de la frontera.

“Si la situación se agrava podría derivar en una guerra, aunque por ahora sigue limitada a enfrentamientos”, declaró el primer ministro interino tailandés, Phumtham Wechayachai, ante la prensa en Bangkok.

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La tensión se disparó el jueves debido a una disputa territorial de décadas entre los dos países del sudeste asiático, con combates que incluyeron el uso de tanques, aviones de combate, artillería y cohetes BM-21.

Se trata de la escalada militar más grave desde 2011 en una zona de 800 kilómetros de frontera, donde persisten áreas no delimitadas oficialmente, salpicadas de templos antiguos.

Según el Ministerio del Interior tailandés, las autoridades evacuaron a 138.000 civiles, incluidos 428 pacientes hospitalarios, desde cuatro provincias limítrofes con Camboya.

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El balance oficial en Tailandia ascendió a 15 muertos —un soldado y 14 civiles— y 46 heridos. Por su parte, Camboya reportó un muerto y cinco heridos, en su primer informe oficial desde el inicio del conflicto.

La tensión se disparó el
La tensión se disparó el jueves debido a una disputa territorial de décadas entre los dos países del sudeste asiático, con combates que incluyeron el uso de tanques, aviones de combate, artillería y cohetes BM-21 (REUTERS)

Los enfrentamientos se reanudaron en la madrugada del viernes en tres puntos distintos, de acuerdo con el ejército tailandés. Según su versión, las fuerzas camboyanas lanzaron fuego con armas pesadas, artillería y cohetes múltiples, a lo que las tropas tailandesas respondieron con “fuego de apoyo apropiado”. El ejército agregó que los choques incluyeron seis zonas de combate el jueves, entre ellas dos antiguos templos.

En el municipio camboyano de Samraong, a 20 kilómetros de la frontera, periodistas de la agencia AFP registraron disparos lejanos de artillería durante la mañana. “Vivo muy cerca de la frontera. Tenemos miedo porque empezaron a disparar de nuevo sobre las 6 de la madrugada”, relató Pro Bak, un residente de 41 años que huía con su familia hacia un templo budista. “No sé cuándo podremos volver a casa”, añadió.

La crisis diplomática también se agravó. Tailandia expulsó al embajador camboyano y llamó a consultas a su representante en Phnom Penh, luego de que una mina terrestre hiriera a cinco soldados tailandeses. Camboya respondió retirando a todos sus diplomáticos en Bangkok, excepto uno, y degradando las relaciones al nivel más bajo.

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El Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU se reunirá de urgencia y a puerta cerrada este viernes, tras una solicitud del primer ministro camboyano, Hun Manet.

El primer ministro camboyano, Hun
El primer ministro camboyano, Hun Manet (REUTERS)

En paralelo, Estados Unidos y Francia instaron al cese inmediato de las hostilidades, mientras que la Unión Europea y China expresaron una profunda preocupación y pidieron diálogo entre las partes.

Desde 2008 hasta 2011, los dos países ya libraron enfrentamientos en la zona, que dejaron 28 muertos y decenas de miles de desplazados. Una decisión de la Corte Internacional de Justicia en favor de Camboya calmó las tensiones durante una década. Sin embargo, la situación volvió a deteriorarse en mayo de este año, tras la muerte de un soldado camboyano en un nuevo choque fronterizo.

Los combates actuales reflejan la fragilidad de la paz en la región y han despertado la preocupación de la Asociación de Naciones del Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN).

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El primer ministro de Malasia, Anwar Ibrahim, quien ocupa la presidencia rotativa del bloque, declaró haber hablado con sus homólogos de Camboya y Tailandia, a quienes pidió diálogo inmediato. Según dijo, ambos mostraron “señales positivas y predisposición” a buscar una salida pacífica.

(Con información de AFP)



Asia / Pacific,Defense,Diplomacy / Foreign Policy,SINGAPORE

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Fox News Poll: The GOP is seen as more likely to have a clear plan for the country

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NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

With the 2026 midterm elections more than a year away, a new Fox News survey finds that while the Republican Party has lost some ground to the Democratic Party on handling key issues, voters are more likely to think the GOP has a clear plan for dealing with the country’s problems. 

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The survey, released Thursday, finds that by a 10-point margin, more voters think the Republicans have a clear plan for the U.S. than the Democrats: 43% vs. 33%.  Still, majorities feel neither the GOP (54%) or the Democrats (64%) have a plan. This is about where sentiment was three years ago, the last time the question was asked. 

FOX NEWS POLL: TRUMP FACING HEADWINDS AT SIX-MONTH MARK

Far more Republicans (79%) than Democrats (51%) are confident their party has a clear plan, and that’s what hurts the Democrats. While at least two-thirds of independents feel neither party has a plan, more trust the GOP (30% vs. 25%).

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At the same time, the survey shows some significant erosion in the GOP’s handling of key issues compared to the last time Fox asked in 2023, including in areas where they are traditionally preferred. 

Voters view the Republican Party as better able to handle national security (by 14 points), immigration (+6R), and government spending (+5R) while the Democratic Party is favored on climate change (by 23 points), health care (+19D), social security (+17D), education (+15D), and energy policies (+6D).

The parties are rated about equally on inflation (+1D), gun policy (even), the economy (+1R), and foreign policy (+3R).

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Compared to 2023, support for the GOP is down on immigration by 4 points, national security by 6, government spending by 6, foreign policy by 9, and the economy by 14. Plus, the Republicans’ 12-point advantage on inflation has disappeared, as Democrats have a 1-point edge today.

While the Democrats have largely maintained support on their best issues, it’s noteworthy they saw a 12-point increase on education, as voters have been split on who would better handle the issue for the last few years.

FOX NEWS POLL: APPROVAL OF SCOTUS AT 5-YEAR HIGH, REBOUNDING FROM RECORD LOW IN 2024

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These shifts can mostly be attributed to self-identified Democrats solidifying their preference for their own party’s handling of the issues, as well as independents lessening their support for Republicans or switching to Democrats.

Self-identified Republicans continue to express high levels of support for their party on the issues.

«Independents and even some Democrats had soured on President Biden and the Democratic Congress by 2023 and 2024, but they have shifted to the left a bit in 2025 in response to the policies of President Trump and the Republicans,» says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. «An appreciable part of this is performance related. Without obvious economic and foreign policy victories, independents and soft Democrats could drift to the left, which could scramble the electoral dynamic heading into 2026.»

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Overall, views of both major political parties are underwater. By 2 points, the Republican Party has a slightly better favorable rating (44% favorable) than the Democratic Party (42%), but more than half view both parties negatively (56% and 57% unfavorable, respectively). That’s relatively unchanged since April.  

Positive views of the Republican Party have shown steady growth since October 2019, while the Democratic Party has been on a downward trajectory, reaching a record low in April (41% favorable).

The Republican Party enjoys more support among their party faithful (83% have a favorable view) than the Democratic Party (78% favorable). Seven in 10 independents have a negative view of both.

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CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE

Conducted July 18-21, 2025, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,000 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (114) and cellphones (636) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (250). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.

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«Fake news»: la Casa Blanca trata despegar a Donald Trump del caso Epstein y frenar la tormenta política

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La Casa Blanca trata de apagar el incendio que comienza a extenderse en Washington, tras la revelación de documentos que vinculan a Donald Trump con el empresario pedófilo Jeffrey Epstein. Y afirma que las últimas declaraciones que comprometen al presidente son «fake news».

El director de comunicaciones de la Casa Blanca, Steven Cheung, aseguró el miércoles que se trata de «noticias falsas», al responder a las recientes informaciones que aseguran que Trump fue informado en el mes de mayo de que su nombre aparecía en “múltiples ocasiones” en los archivos del polémico caso contra el pederasta Epstein, muerto en 2019 en la prisión donde cumplía condena por manejar una red de prostitución y abusos de menores.

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Cheung hizo llegar esa valoración a los diarios The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times y la cadena CNN, después de que estos medios aseguraran que el presidente de Estados Unidos fue informado desde mayo pasado por funcionarios de su Departamento de Justicia de que su nombre aparece en “múltiples ocasiones” en los documentos del caso del magnate acusado de tráfico sexual y pederastia.

The Wall Street Journal fue el primero de los tres medios en revelar este jueves, citando a altos funcionarios de la Administración del republicano, que la fiscal general (ministra de Justicia), Pam Bondi, y su número dos, Todd Blanche, comunicaron a Trump que su nombre figuraba en los documentos, junto a los de otras figuras conocidas, durante una “sesión informativa de rutina” en la que éste no era el tema central.

“Esta es otra historia falsa, como la historia anterior de The Wall Street Journal”, dijo Cheung a ese medio, refiriéndose de forma velada a la carta de contenido “obsceno” enviada por Trump a Epstein durante los años en los que eran amigos y que publicó ese diario la semana pasada, cuando el presidente, que lo negó categóricamente, demandó al prestigioso diario.

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Donald Trump, su esposa Melania, Jeffrey Epstein y su pareja Ghislaine Maxwell, en una de las imágenes reveladas en los últimos días.

Además, Cheung dijo a la CNN: “Esto no es nada más que la continuación de las historias falsas inventadas por los demócratas y los medios liberales, como el ‘escándalo Obama Russiagate’, sobre el que el presidente Trump tenía razón”, en alusión a las acusaciones del propio Trump y de algunos miembros de su equipo de injerencia electoral contra el ex presidente demócrata Barack Obama.

La ofensiva contra Barack Obama

En tanto, la Casa Blanca volvió al ataque este miércoles contra Obama al acusarlo de «conspiración» contra el presidente Trump, en un nuevo intento de desviar la atención del revuelo generado por el caso Epstein.

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El ex presidente demócrata se ha convertido en un blanco frecuente de los embates del actual inquilino de la Casa Blanca.

Trump quiere convencer a parte de su base de que pase la página y deje de acusarlo de falta de transparencia por sus reticencias a revelar los detalles sobre el expediente de Epstein.

La jefa de inteligencia de Trump, Tulsi Gabbard, declaró en rueda de prensa que Obama ha llevado a cabo un «golpe de Estado que duró años». Fue, dijo, una «conspiración traicionera contra el pueblo estadounidense, nuestra República, y un intento de socavar la administración del presidente Trump».

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La jefa de Inteligencia de EE.UU., Tulsi Gabbard, en una rueda de prensa en la Casa Blanca donde apuntó contra Barack Obama. Foto: EFE   La jefa de Inteligencia de EE.UU., Tulsi Gabbard, en una rueda de prensa en la Casa Blanca donde apuntó contra Barack Obama. Foto: EFE

Un argumento que retoma la versión de Trump. El republicano acusa a Obama, quien gobernó de 2009 a 2017, y a Hillary Clinton, la candidata demócrata a quien el magnate republicano derrotó en las elecciones presidenciales de 2016, de difundir información falsa para desprestigiarlo sobre la posible interferencia rusa en la campaña que lo llevó a la Casa Blanca por primera vez.

Gabbard citó datos de inteligencia desclasificados recientemente que, según ella, proporcionan «pruebas irrefutables» de que Obama ha ordenado la manipulación de las evaluaciones de inteligencia para acusar a Rusia de interferencia electoral.

El Departamento de Justicia anunció este miércoles la formación de una unidad especial para «evaluar las pruebas hechas públicas» por Gabbard.

Las afirmaciones de Gabbard contradicen cuatro investigaciones penales, de contrainteligencia e independientes realizadas entre 2019 y 2023. Todas ellas concluyeron que Rusia interfirió en los comicios y de alguna manera ayudó a Trump.

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«Cuando no tienen nada concreto que presentar a los estadounidenses, los republicanos le echan la culpa a Barack Obama. Es ridículo», denunció el líder de la minoría demócrata en la Cámara de Representantes, Hakeem Jeffries.

Trump es conocido por su habilidad para sobrevivir políticamente a los escándalos, aunque le está resultando difícil dejar atrás el caso Epstein.

El gobierno estadounidense asegura que no existen pruebas de la existencia de una lista secreta de clientes para este amigo de las estrellas y los poderosos, pero el movimiento trumpista «Haz que Estados Unidos vuelva a ser grande», más conocido por sus siglas en inglés MAGA, no está nada convencido de ello.

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Quiere que Trump cumpla su promesa electoral y publique los archivos del caso.

Entre tanto, los demócratas aumentan la presión. Los líderes republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes enviaron a los congresistas de vacaciones a partir de este miércoles para un receso de seis semanas con el fin de evitar que los legisladores opositores los obliguen a realizar votaciones políticamente incómodas sobre el caso.

Antes los demócratas convencieron a varios republicanos de un subcomité de la Cámara de Representantes para votar un texto que pide al Departamento de Justicia que publique los documentos judiciales del caso Epstein.

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Donald Trump,Jeffrey Epstein,Estados Unidos

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