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Trump wagers US economy in high-stakes tariff gamble at 100-day mark
President Donald Trump campaigned for a second term on pledges to lower prices, create jobs and impose tough tariffs on imports, especially from China.
Dubbing himself the «Tariff Man» last fall, he told an audience at the Economic Club of Chicago, «To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff.» However, in his first months in office, it is unclear whether Trump can, or should, implement the harsh reciprocal tariffs he announced in April against dozens of countries.
Now, 100 days into his second term, economists told Fox News Digital they see these proposed reciprocal tariffs as politically motivated, unnecessary and failing to secure the benefits from U.S. trading partners that Trump had been hoping for.
CHINA IS ‘CAVING’ TO TRUMP’S TRADE WAR STRATEGY, EXPERT SIGNALS
President Donald Trump holds a «Foreign Trade Barriers» document as he delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2025. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo)
Instead, they warned, Trump’s tariffs could grind billions of dollars in trade to a halt between the world’s two largest economies, disrupt global supply chains and risk torpedoing the U.S. economy into a major slump or recession.
When Trump took office, chances of recession «were probably about 10%,» Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, told Fox News Digital in an interview. «Now, they’re up to around 55%.»
It is unclear whether Trump will continue to push through with these unpopular tariffs, which are slated to take force in early July. In the near-term, uncertainty and volatility remain.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on March 28, 2025 amid President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Short-term tariff impact
Trump announced tariffs on April 2, dubbed «Liberation Day.» The announcement included both a 10% universal baseline tariff and plans to enact larger tariffs on dozens of other countries, including China.
These new import taxes immediately sent stock markets into free-fall, triggering one of the largest single-day S&P 500 losses since World War II, and prompting deep and unyielding uncertainty over possible next moves.
«The only thing that’s happened that has pushed the odds of a recession up so high, so fast, is chaos coming from out of the White House,» Wolfers said.
Trump subsequently paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to encourage the administration to make «deals» with countries on trade and encourage more investment in U.S. manufacturing. Even so, some prices have already risen in anticipation of higher costs under the new tariff regime.
Uncertainty has also played a role. Trump’s tariff announcement in April prompted a number of large container ships to abruptly halt their shipments to the U.S. earlier this month and turn back to their original ports. This means that more consumers will see a price hike for everyday products, likely at certain big-box retailer stores like Walmart or Target, as early as next month.
These price hikes are «not showing up tomorrow, but will show up over the next few months, as scarcities develop and American retailers have to find other sources – that might take a while,» David H. Feldman, an economist and professor at William & Mary College, said in an interview.
TRUMP’S ULTIMATUM TO FEDERAL WORKERS: RETURN TO OFFICE ‘OR BE TERMINATED’
President Donald Trump arrives for a presentation ceremony in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
While Trump says tariffs will target foreign competitors and reduce the trade deficit, the costs will fall mostly on working- and middle-class Americans who buy the bulk of imported goods.
Wolfers said Trump’s focus on the trade «deficit» is based on a common misconception.
«What that means is we sell China a small amount of stuff, and they sell us a large amount of stuff,» he explained. However, for every dollar bill that goes to China, the U.S. gets something for it that Americans want to buy, like T-shirts.
«We have a dollar deficit – but we have a stuff surplus.»
Potential for deescalation
There are few signs that Trump’s tariffs will deliver the gains he sought, such as onshoring U.S. production or securing better trade deals, particularly with Asian countries.
Instead, experts warn these countries are likely to circumvent U.S. markets and supply chains over time.
«If these tariffs stay in place, there will be hardly any trade between the U.S. and China,» by the second half of the year, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in an interview.
Roughly $650 billion in annual trade between the two countries is at risk, along with knock-down effects on global commerce in the long term.
WORLD LEADERS REACT AS TRUMP RE-ENTERS THE WHITE HOUSE
President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Trump’s tariffs also discard decades of international understanding that has depoliticized trade disputes, Feldman said.
The U.S. is «moving from a system that at least was based on mutually acceptable rules of behavior to a system that does not have that as its anchor,» Feldman, whose research focuses on global trade policy, told Fox News Digital. That shift allows the government to target foreign nations individually and offer selective tariff relief to firms and industries «if they do ‘our’ bidding,» he argued.
«America is now master of the shakedown.»
President Donald Trump gestures to members of the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on April 3, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Trump spoke a day after announcing sweeping new tariffs targeting goods imported into the U.S. on countries including China, Japan and India. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Next steps
After market backlash, Trump appears to be warming to the idea of easing his proposed 145% reciprocal tariffs on China, which has vowed to impose its own retaliatory measures on U.S. goods.
Economists say he is more likely to do so if the economy sours, or he sees a major drop in poll numbers, if the past is precedent.
Still, any path to deescalation remains uncertain. Just last week, China denied Trump’s claim that the two countries were negotiating a tariff deal, after he asserted in an interview that he had reached «200 deals» on trade.
Economists believe Trump will at least partially scale back the tariffs before July but warn he is playing a high-stakes game of brinkmanship that could hit U.S. consumers and businesses hardest.
«What I worry about is that the immediate impact of uncertainty is on business investment in trade-exposed industries, leading to a recession,» Feldman said. «But it could get worse, if it transmits into a financial panic. And if everyone starts to say, ‘geez, I got to get into gold and cash, I can’t be in Treasury bills.’ If we move into a flight to cash, all bets are off.»
Should that happen, he said, «We could slide into 2008 all over again.»
A television broadcasts market news on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York on Friday, April 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump has refused to concede that his early days have been anything but a major success.
In a recent interview with Time magazine, he touted his first 100 days as «very successful,» saying «people [are] writing that it was the best first month, and best second month, and really the best third month» for a U.S. president.
He dismissed stock market volatility and rising inflation as temporary «market fluctuation,» calling it a «transition period» that would level out.
When asked if he would consider it a win if tariffs remained as high as 50% on imports a year from now, Trump said he would.
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«Total victory,» he said.
«Everybody is going to benefit.»
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President Donald Trump is doubling down on his nomination of Alina Habba after federal judges in New Jersey declined to extend her term as interim U.S. attorney, and instead chose to replace her with a different prosecutor, whom the DOJ subsequently fired.
The unusual chain of events has led to confusion over who will become the next interim U.S. attorney in the District of New Jersey, as Habba’s 120-day term is set to expire this week.
A White House spokesman said in a statement provided to Fox News Digital that Trump supports Habba becoming the permanent U.S. attorney, a position that requires Senate confirmation.
DOJ SWIFTLY FIRES HABBA’S COURT-APPOINTED REPLACEMENT FOR US ATTORNEY
President Donald Trump listens as White House Presidential Counselor Alina Habba delivers remarks before being sworn in as the interim U.S. Attorney for New Jersey in the Oval Office at the White House on March 28, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
«President Trump has full confidence in Alina Habba, whose work as acting U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey has made the Garden State and the nation safer,» White House spokesman Harrison Fields said. «The Trump Administration looks forward to her final confirmation in the U.S. Senate and will work tirelessly to ensure the people of New Jersey are well represented.»
But Habba’s vote in the Senate does not appear to be happening anytime soon, if at all. New Jersey’s two Democratic senators, Cory Booker and Andy Kim, are currently blocking Habba’s nomination through the Senate’s «blue slip» tradition, and a person familiar with the process said the Senate has not received materials needed to vet her nomination in any case.
In the meantime, arcane laws surrounding the authority to fill federal vacancies have become pertinent.
Trump appointed Habba as the temporary U.S. attorney in March, but that term expires on Friday, according to the Department of Justice. Statutes indicate that federal judges have the authority to extend an interim U.S. attorney’s term or vote on replacing that person.
The district court judges of New Jersey, most of whom were appointed by Democratic presidents, convened behind closed doors on Monday and chose to replace Habba with her top assistant, Desiree Grace, a career DOJ prosecutor since 2016. Grace rose through the ranks to become head of the criminal division in New Jersey before becoming Habba’s No. 2 in April.
ALINA HABBA: WE MUST REFOCUS TAXPAYER DOLLARS ON IMPORTANT THINGS
Trump lawyer Alina Habba speaks at a campaign rally for then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the PPL Center in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 29, 2024. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)
However, Attorney General Pam Bondi alleged that the judges infringed on Trump’s authority to appoint U.S. attorneys by voting to replace Habba. Bondi said she «removed» Grace in response to the judges’ actions.
«[Habba] has been doing a great job in making NJ safe again,» Bondi said in a statement. «Nonetheless, politically minded judges refused to allow her to continue in her position, replacing Alina with the First Assistant. Accordingly, the First Assistant United States Attorney in New Jersey has just been removed.»
Grace could not be reached for comment. An anonymous source with knowledge of the matter told the New York Times that Grace received an email Tuesday informing her that she was fired.
WHITE HOUSE HITS BACK AT DEM MAYOR SUING US ATTORNEY AFTER ICE ARREST: ‘DESPERATE ATTEMPT’
In this Sept. 4, 2018, photo, Senate Judiciary Committee member Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J. speaks during the committee’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s nominations hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP)
A Habba spokeswoman told Fox News Digital that Habba is still the interim U.S. attorney through Friday. But the tension between the DOJ and the judges leaves open the question of who will assume the role come Saturday.
Booker said that firing a court-appointed U.S. attorney was part of a «pattern» of the DOJ flouting the law.
«The firing of a career public servant, lawfully appointed by the court, is another blatant attempt to intimidate anyone that doesn’t agree with them and undermine judicial independence,» Booker wrote on X.
Booker is among the critics who have deemed Habba unqualified for the job. Habba, who served as Trump’s legal spokeswoman and personal defense lawyer during his criminal prosecutions, had no experience as a prosecutor before Trump appointed her as lead prosecutor in New Jersey.
Upon taking the job, Habba was accused of politicizing the role after she advocated turning New Jersey «red,» and she drew a rare rebuke from a judge for ordering Newark’s Democratic mayor arrested and then quickly dismissing the charges.
But Trump and DOJ leadership are standing firmly by Habba. The Trump administration found a workaround in the Northern District of New York when John Sarcone’s term as U.S. attorney recently expired there, but it is unclear if a similar option is available for Habba.
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Anne Joseph O’Connell, a Stanford Law School professor, wrote on Bluesky that she believed Trump had the authority to fire Grace and possibly re-appoint Habba to serve out another temporary term.
«The question now is, will they name Habba to a new 120-day interim US attorney appointment or will they turn to the Vacancies Act and name a different person as acting U.S. attorney,» O’Connell wrote.
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At least 12 people have died as violent clashes escalate along the Thailand-Cambodia border. Amid the rising tensions, Thailand has closed its border with Cambodia.
One of Thailand’s six F-16 fighter jets along its disputed border fired into Cambodia and destroyed a military target, according to Reuters, which cited the Thai army. The outlet added that Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defense said the jets dropped two bombs on a road. The ministry said that it «strongly condemns the reckless and brutal military aggression of the Kingdom of Thailand against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Cambodia,» according to Reuters.
People rest at a shelter, following recent clashes along the disputed border between the two countries, according to authorities people have been killed across three border provinces, in Surin province, Thailand, July 24, 2025. (REUTERS/Pansira Kaewplung)
WORLD LEADER SUSPENDED FROM OFFICE OVER LEAKED PHONE CALL AFTER DEADLY BORDER DISPUTE
Late on Wednesday, Thailand recalled its ambassador to Cambodia and announced it would expel the ambassador from Cambodia. On Thursday, Cambodia downgraded its diplomatic relations with Thailand to the lowest level and recalled all staff from its embassy in Bangkok, the Associated Press reported. Additionally, the Cambodian Foreign Ministry demanded all Thai diplomatic staff leave the country.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said he would speak to the leaders of both countries by the end of the day, according to the BBC. Malaysia is currently serving as the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), putting Ibrahim in a position to mediate, as both Cambodia and Thailand are member states.
Royal Thai Army soldiers are pictured on armored vehicles on a road in Chachoengsao province on July 24, 2025. (Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP via Getty Images)
PAKISTAN WARNS OF A ‘NUCLEAR FLASHPOINT,’ URGES TRUMP TO STEP IN AMID RISING TENSIONS WITH INDIA OVER KASHMIR
The U.S. Embassy in Bangkok and the U.S. Embassy in Phnom Penh advised American citizens living in or traveling near the border area to follow the directions of local security personnel.
This comes almost exactly one month after both embassies warned U.S. citizens in their respective countries against going near the border. The State Department issued a «Level 1 with risk» travel advisory — just above the lowest level — urging Americans to exercise caution, though travel is permitted.
Cambodian soldiers reload the BM-21 multiple rocket launcher in Preah Vihear province on July 24, 2025. Thailand launched air strikes on Cambodian military targets on July 24 as Cambodia fired rockets and artillery, killing a civilian, in a dramatic escalation of a long-running border row between the two neighbors. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)
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While it is unclear how the latest clashes between Cambodia and Thailand began, the violence follows a dispute in May, during which troops from both sides exchanged fire. According to The Associated Press, both sides said they acted in self-defense and one Cambodian soldier was killed.
Following the flare-up in May, both countries took retaliatory actions, with Thailand stopping nearly all border crossings before ultimately closing them entirely. Meanwhile, Cambodia banned Thai movies and TV.
INTERNACIONAL
La hambruna en Gaza, contada por una enfermera en primera línea: “Cada semana los números son mayores”
La enfermera Daniela de Oliveira Mota había trabajado en países con grupos armados, pero nunca había visto nada como Gaza. “Es todavía peor de lo que imaginé”, dice por teléfono a Infobae desde la Ciudad de Gaza, donde lleva dos meses como gerente de actividades de enfermería de Médicos Sin Fronteras (MSF). “Falta todo”. No se refiere solo a la destrucción visible tras 21 meses de guerra, sino a algo más profundo: la ausencia de lo más básico para la supervivencia humana.
En el centro sanitario donde trabaja —uno de los cinco que MSF opera en Gaza— atiende actualmente a más de 1.000 pacientes por desnutrición: niños de entre seis meses y cinco años, mujeres embarazadas y lactantes. “Cada semana los números son mayores”, constata. Pero admite que estas cifras son solo la punta del iceberg: “Sabemos que son muchísimos más” debido a las limitaciones de suministros y personal.
Su testimonio ilustra una realidad que las organizaciones humanitarias llevan meses denunciando: Gaza vive una hambruna provocada. Más de 100 ONG, entre ellas MSF, Save the Children y Oxfam, advirtieron el miércoles de una “hambruna masiva” que se extiende por la Franja, donde incluso los propios trabajadores de ayuda “se están uniendo a las mismas filas para recibir alimento”.
“Antes del 7 de octubre prácticamente no existía desnutrición aguda en Gaza”, explica De Oliveira Mota. Los centros de alimentación terapéutica que ahora dirige no existían antes de la guerra. La desnutrición infantil se ha convertido en una epidemia que comienza incluso antes del nacimiento.
“Lo que más me impacta son los niños con menos de seis meses, porque [la desnutrición] empieza ya cuando la mujer está embarazada”, relata. “Tenemos muchísimas mujeres embarazadas desnutridas. Es como un ciclo que nunca para, desde antes del nacimiento”. Médicos Sin Fronteras había reportado previamente que las mujeres con seis meses de embarazo a menudo no pesan más de 40 kilos.
Los datos oficiales confirman la gravedad de la situación. Solo en las últimas 72 horas antes del testimonio de la enfermera, 21 niños murieron por desnutrición o hambre, según confirmó el director del hospital Al Shifa, en el norte de Gaza. La Agencia de Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados Palestinos (UNRWA) reporta que uno de cada diez niños menores de cinco años presenta desnutrición. El Programa de Alimentos de la ONU estima que medio millón de personas sufren la hambruna en el enclave.
El caso que más marcó a De Oliveira Mota involucra a un bebé de 40 días que llegó con su abuelo. El padre había muerto en la guerra, la madre había abandonado al niño, y el anciano llevaba dos días dándole solo agua porque no conseguía fórmula láctea. “Me quedé en el teléfono por tres o cuatro horas llamando a diferentes organizaciones para intentar conseguir una lata de fórmula”, recuerda. “Algo que normalmente es tan simple, acá ahora es prácticamente imposible”.
La crisis se agravó dramáticamente el 2 de marzo, cuando Israel impuso un bloqueo total que prohibió durante casi tres meses el ingreso de alimentos, agua, medicamentos y otros suministros básicos. Aunque en mayo Israel comenzó a permitir el ingreso de ayuda “mínima”, según la definió el primer ministro Benjamin Netanyahu, los efectos persisten.
“Sabemos que tenemos lo que necesitamos en el otro lado de la frontera”, dice De Oliveira Mota con frustración. “Hay muchísimos alimentos, suministros, todas las cosas que necesitamos están esperando para poder entrar”. Para la enfermera, “cuando hablamos de la hambruna que está pasando ahora, es intencional. Podría terminar mañana”.
Israel defiende el bloqueo como una medida para presionar al grupo terrorista Hamas a liberar a los 50 rehenes que aún mantiene del ataque del 7 de octubre de 2023, menos de la mitad de los cuales se cree que siguen vivos. El Gobierno israelí acusa a Hamas de desviar ayuda humanitaria, aunque la ONU asegura que no ha habido desviación significativa.
La desnutrición de las madres complica aún más el panorama. “Una buena parte de las madres están desnutridas”, explica De Oliveira Mota. “Pueden continuar, pueden lograr amamantar aun cuando están desnutridas, pero el problema no es solamente la desnutrición”. El acceso limitado al agua, las condiciones de vida en tiendas de campaña y el trauma emocional afectan la producción de leche materna, explica la profesional.
Para los bebés menores de seis meses, MSF intenta orientar la lactancia materna y tratar a las madres con suplementos nutricionales. “En los casos muy graves tenemos algunos centros de internación para referir, pero muchas veces estamos casi esperando que el niño esté en un estado peor” para poder hospitalizarlo, reconoce.
MSF tiene actualmente 700 mujeres embarazadas y lactantes y 500 niños con desnutrición grave y moderada inscritos en solo dos centros.
COGAT, la autoridad israelí responsable de coordinar la ayuda humanitaria en la Franja, afirmó que no restringe la entrada de alimentos para bebés, incluida la leche de fórmula, en la Franja de Gaza. La agencia añadió que en las últimas semanas se habían entregado más de 1.400 toneladas de alimentos para bebés en Gaza.
La distribución de ayuda se ha convertido en otra fuente de sufrimiento. De Oliveira Mota presenció cómo llegó al servicio de urgencias un hombre atropellado por un camión de distribución de alimentos. “Aparentemente tienen una orden de las fuerzas israelíes de que el camión no puede parar hasta que llegue al punto de distribución, aun si hay personas”, explica. El hombre murió junto a su hijo de seis años.
Según la ONU, más de 1.000 palestinos han sido heridos o muertos por fuerzas israelíes mientras intentaban recoger ayuda desde finales de mayo. Para De Oliveira Mota, el sistema actual, gestionado por la Fundación Humanitaria de Gaza (GHF) con apoyo de Estados Unidos e Israel en lugar de los mecanismos tradicionales de la ONU, está “diseñado intencionalmente para crear el caos”.
“Las organizaciones humanitarias estamos acostumbradas a cómo se organiza un punto de distribución de manera segura”, explica. “Esto que están haciendo… simplemente las personas van a buscar comida y vuelven heridas de bala todos los días”.
(Nour Alsaqqa/MSF)
Los cortes eléctricos agravan la situación. Con combustible para apenas tres días, los centros médicos funcionan con generadores durante pocas horas. “Durante la noche solamente podemos tener el generador por dos o tres horas. El equipo se queda a oscuras, los pacientes también”, describe De Oliveira Mota.
A esto se suma el hambre, que también afecta a los trabajadores sanitarios. Oliveira Mota confirma que sus colegas palestinos han tenido que trabajar sin comer. “Tuvimos algunas situaciones en que los compañeros se fueron a trabajar sin comer”, dice. MSF ahora garantiza una comida diaria para su personal, pero muchos trabajadores humanitarios no pueden acceder a alimentos incluso teniendo salario porque “no hay comida en el mercado o los precios también son muy altos”.
Cada día, De Oliveira Mota enfrenta el dolor de no poder ofrecer respuestas completas a madres desesperadas. “Todos los días hablo con por lo menos tres pacientes que están pidiendo suplementos y no son del grupo objetivo”, dice. Cuando las madres llegan sin fórmula láctea o pañales para sus bebés desnutridos, ella intenta explicar las limitaciones: “Les digo que lo lamento mucho, que no tengo una solución ahora mismo… pero intento mirar cuáles otros apoyos podemos ofrecer a esa mujer o a esa familia”.
Para De Oliveira Mota, la situación no tiene precedentes. “Nunca, nunca hubo un bloqueo de ayuda humanitaria”, enfatiza.
El conflicto, que comenzó con el ataque terrorista de Hamas del 7 de octubre que mató a unas 1.200 personas, ha causado más de 59.000 muertes palestinas, según las autoridades de Gaza. UNICEF reporta que en 21 meses murieron más de 17.000 niños —un promedio de 28 diarios, “el equivalente de una clase entera”.
“La población civil está sufriendo muchísimo”, concluye De Oliveira Mota. “No tienen un minuto de paz. No tienen comida. No tienen seguridad. Nada en la vida está funcionando normalmente”. Su solución para acabar con el sufrimiento es clara: “Abrir las fronteras, permitir el acceso humanitario” sin restricciones. “Hay suficientes suministros, con organizaciones que saben distribuirlo de una manera segura”.
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