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Trump wagers US economy in high-stakes tariff gamble at 100-day mark
President Donald Trump campaigned for a second term on pledges to lower prices, create jobs and impose tough tariffs on imports, especially from China.
Dubbing himself the «Tariff Man» last fall, he told an audience at the Economic Club of Chicago, «To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff.» However, in his first months in office, it is unclear whether Trump can, or should, implement the harsh reciprocal tariffs he announced in April against dozens of countries.
Now, 100 days into his second term, economists told Fox News Digital they see these proposed reciprocal tariffs as politically motivated, unnecessary and failing to secure the benefits from U.S. trading partners that Trump had been hoping for.
CHINA IS ‘CAVING’ TO TRUMP’S TRADE WAR STRATEGY, EXPERT SIGNALS
President Donald Trump holds a «Foreign Trade Barriers» document as he delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2025. (REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo)
Instead, they warned, Trump’s tariffs could grind billions of dollars in trade to a halt between the world’s two largest economies, disrupt global supply chains and risk torpedoing the U.S. economy into a major slump or recession.
When Trump took office, chances of recession «were probably about 10%,» Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, told Fox News Digital in an interview. «Now, they’re up to around 55%.»
It is unclear whether Trump will continue to push through with these unpopular tariffs, which are slated to take force in early July. In the near-term, uncertainty and volatility remain.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on March 28, 2025 amid President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Short-term tariff impact
Trump announced tariffs on April 2, dubbed «Liberation Day.» The announcement included both a 10% universal baseline tariff and plans to enact larger tariffs on dozens of other countries, including China.
These new import taxes immediately sent stock markets into free-fall, triggering one of the largest single-day S&P 500 losses since World War II, and prompting deep and unyielding uncertainty over possible next moves.
«The only thing that’s happened that has pushed the odds of a recession up so high, so fast, is chaos coming from out of the White House,» Wolfers said.
Trump subsequently paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to encourage the administration to make «deals» with countries on trade and encourage more investment in U.S. manufacturing. Even so, some prices have already risen in anticipation of higher costs under the new tariff regime.
Uncertainty has also played a role. Trump’s tariff announcement in April prompted a number of large container ships to abruptly halt their shipments to the U.S. earlier this month and turn back to their original ports. This means that more consumers will see a price hike for everyday products, likely at certain big-box retailer stores like Walmart or Target, as early as next month.
These price hikes are «not showing up tomorrow, but will show up over the next few months, as scarcities develop and American retailers have to find other sources – that might take a while,» David H. Feldman, an economist and professor at William & Mary College, said in an interview.
TRUMP’S ULTIMATUM TO FEDERAL WORKERS: RETURN TO OFFICE ‘OR BE TERMINATED’
President Donald Trump arrives for a presentation ceremony in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
While Trump says tariffs will target foreign competitors and reduce the trade deficit, the costs will fall mostly on working- and middle-class Americans who buy the bulk of imported goods.
Wolfers said Trump’s focus on the trade «deficit» is based on a common misconception.
«What that means is we sell China a small amount of stuff, and they sell us a large amount of stuff,» he explained. However, for every dollar bill that goes to China, the U.S. gets something for it that Americans want to buy, like T-shirts.
«We have a dollar deficit – but we have a stuff surplus.»
Potential for deescalation
There are few signs that Trump’s tariffs will deliver the gains he sought, such as onshoring U.S. production or securing better trade deals, particularly with Asian countries.
Instead, experts warn these countries are likely to circumvent U.S. markets and supply chains over time.
«If these tariffs stay in place, there will be hardly any trade between the U.S. and China,» by the second half of the year, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in an interview.
Roughly $650 billion in annual trade between the two countries is at risk, along with knock-down effects on global commerce in the long term.
WORLD LEADERS REACT AS TRUMP RE-ENTERS THE WHITE HOUSE
President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Trump’s tariffs also discard decades of international understanding that has depoliticized trade disputes, Feldman said.
The U.S. is «moving from a system that at least was based on mutually acceptable rules of behavior to a system that does not have that as its anchor,» Feldman, whose research focuses on global trade policy, told Fox News Digital. That shift allows the government to target foreign nations individually and offer selective tariff relief to firms and industries «if they do ‘our’ bidding,» he argued.
«America is now master of the shakedown.»
President Donald Trump gestures to members of the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on April 3, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Trump spoke a day after announcing sweeping new tariffs targeting goods imported into the U.S. on countries including China, Japan and India. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Next steps
After market backlash, Trump appears to be warming to the idea of easing his proposed 145% reciprocal tariffs on China, which has vowed to impose its own retaliatory measures on U.S. goods.
Economists say he is more likely to do so if the economy sours, or he sees a major drop in poll numbers, if the past is precedent.
Still, any path to deescalation remains uncertain. Just last week, China denied Trump’s claim that the two countries were negotiating a tariff deal, after he asserted in an interview that he had reached «200 deals» on trade.
Economists believe Trump will at least partially scale back the tariffs before July but warn he is playing a high-stakes game of brinkmanship that could hit U.S. consumers and businesses hardest.
«What I worry about is that the immediate impact of uncertainty is on business investment in trade-exposed industries, leading to a recession,» Feldman said. «But it could get worse, if it transmits into a financial panic. And if everyone starts to say, ‘geez, I got to get into gold and cash, I can’t be in Treasury bills.’ If we move into a flight to cash, all bets are off.»
Should that happen, he said, «We could slide into 2008 all over again.»
A television broadcasts market news on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York on Friday, April 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump has refused to concede that his early days have been anything but a major success.
In a recent interview with Time magazine, he touted his first 100 days as «very successful,» saying «people [are] writing that it was the best first month, and best second month, and really the best third month» for a U.S. president.
He dismissed stock market volatility and rising inflation as temporary «market fluctuation,» calling it a «transition period» that would level out.
When asked if he would consider it a win if tariffs remained as high as 50% on imports a year from now, Trump said he would.
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«Total victory,» he said.
«Everybody is going to benefit.»
Trump’s First 100 Days,Donald Trump,Politics,Trade,Taxes
INTERNACIONAL
Uruguayos con becas en Francia piden una solución por los pasaportes: “Nuestro sueños se ven amenazados”
La nueva versión del pasaporte uruguayo no incluye el lugar de nacimiento y esto ha generado un problema diplomático para el país. Alemania, Francia y Japón han advertido por esta omisión en el documento uruguayo y anunciaron –a diferente escala– restricciones para sus ingresos. El gobierno uruguayo busca bajarle el perfil a este asunto, al tiempo que estudiantes becados piden una solución “urgente” a este problema.
Entre los principales cambios del nuevo pasaporte se encuentra la modificación del título “Nacionalidad” por la denominación “Nacionalidad/Ciudadanía”, consignándole el código “URY” tanto a los ciudadanos naturales como a los legales. Esta medida permite que haya una coincidencia entre el país que emite el documento y la ciudadanía de su titular.
La medida de esos dos estados europeos tiene matices. En el caso de Alemania, el nuevo pasaporte uruguayo no tiene validez ni siquiera para estancias cortas. En el caso de Francia, la traba es para visas por estadías mayores a 90 días.
Esto ha perjudicado a un grupo de estudiantes becados. En una carta dirigida al noticiero Telemundo de Canal 12, aseguran que “tras años de esfuerzo” obtuvieron “oportunidades académicas excepcionales en Francia”. “Entre nosotros hay admitidos en instituciones de renombre como el Institut Polytechnique de París, la Sorbonne, Sciences Po, Rennes School of Business y receptores de la prestigiosa beca Eiffel, una de las más competitivas del mundo”, expresó.
La carta está firmada por siete estudiantes, pero es compartida por cerca de una decena, ya que algunos prefieren no revelar su identidad. Los firmantes son: Candela Sánchez, Federico Méndez, Kevin Solano, Salvador Martínez, Santiago Martínez, Stephanie Ravaschio y Valentina Perchman.
El caso de Solano fue uno de los que se había hecho público hace algunos días: se trata del joven que fue admitido para estudiar en La Sorbonne pero su visa fue rechazada por el nuevo pasaporte.
En la carta firmada por los estudiantes indican que tienen el sueño de desarrollarse académica y profesionalmente en estas instituciones reconocidas a nivel mundial, además de generar vínculos internacionales para luego “aplicar ese conocimiento en beneficio del país”.
“Nuestra intención es clara: formarnos con los mejores para luego aportar lo aprendido a Uruguay. Sin embargo, esos sueños hoy se ven amenazados”, expresaron en la misiva.
“No podemos tramitar nuestras visas. Algunos de nosotros ya deberíamos estar allá; otros viajamos en los primeros días de agosto. Cada día que pasa se reducen nuestras chances de llegar a tiempo para el inicio de clases y cumplir con los requisitos de nuestras becas”, advierten.
Los estudiantes reconocieron que el gobierno está trabajando de manera activa para solucionar este tema. Sin embargo, la respuesta que les dan en la embajada francesa es que no pueden saber cuánto tiempo va a demorar este trámite.
“Solicitamos encarecidamente a las autoridades que, paralelamente a las gestiones ya iniciadas, exploren soluciones transitorias urgentes. Entre ellas, consideramos viables medidas como la impresión de pasaportes con el diseño anterior o la posibilidad de que, en coordinación con la embajada francesa, se acepte una combinación del nuevo pasaporte con una partida de nacimiento apostillada u otra documentación que permita identificar fehacientemente nuestra nacionalidad”, sugieren como alternativa.
Los estudiantes becados insistieron en que necesitan una “solución ya”.
El embajador francés ratificó esta semana la decisión. Entrevistado en el diario El País este martes, Jean-Paul Seytre detalló que se le pidió al gobierno los nuevos ejemplares, los cuales fueron enviados a las autoridades francesas, que los están analizando.“En realidad, nunca vi pasaportes que no incluyan el lugar de nacimiento. En todo caso, el estudio es una competencia del Ministerio del Interior”, expresó el diplomático.
El diplomático aclaró que, hasta ahora, no son muchos los afectados por este problema, una afirmación que expresó para “apaciguar el debate”.
Europe,Tourism / Travel,Weather Markets / Weather,PARIS
INTERNACIONAL
Federal judge limits Trump’s ability to deport Abrego Garcia after lengthy court battle
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Greenbelt, Md. – A federal judge in Maryland issued an emergency ruling Wednesday blocking the Trump administration from immediately taking Salvadorian migrant Kilmar Abrego Garcia into ICE custody for 72 hours after he is released from criminal custody in Nashville, Tennessee — attempting to slow, if only temporarily, a case at the center of a legal and political maelstrom.
U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis said in her order that the government must refrain from immediately taking Abrego into ICE custody pending release from criminal custody in Tennessee, and ordered he be returned to the ICE Order of Supervision at the Baltimore Field Office— the closest ICE facility near the district of Maryland where Abrego was arrested earlier this year.
Xinis said at an evidentiary hearing this month that she would take action soon, in anticipation of a looming detention hearing for Abrego Garcia in his criminal case. She said she planned to issue the order with sufficient time to block the Trump administration’s stated plans to immediately begin the process of deporting Abrego Garcia again upon release — this time to a third country such as Mexico or South Sudan.
Xinis’s order said the additional time will ensure Abrego can raise any credible fears of removal to a third country, and via «the appropriate channels in the immigration process.» She also ordered the government to provide Abrego and his attorneys with «immediate written notice» of plans to transport him to a third country, again with the 72-hour notice period, «so that Abrego Garcia may assert claims of credible fear or seek any other relief available to him under the law and the Constitution.»
TRUMP HAS CUSTODY OVER JAILED CECOT MIGRANTS, EL SALVADOR SAYS, COMPLICATING COURT FIGHTS
Demonstrators gather outside the U.S. District Court in Greenbelt, Maryland, to protest the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was sent to El Salvador in March in what administration officials said was an administrative error, on July 7, 2025. (Breanne Deppisch/Fox News Digital)
Xinis said in her order Wednesday that the 72-hour notice period is necessary «to prevent a repeat of Abrego Garcia’s unlawful deportation to El Salvador by way of third-country removal.»
«Defendants have taken no concrete steps to ensure that any prospective third country would not summarily return Abrego Garcia to El Salvador in an end-run around the very withholding order that offers him uncontroverted protection,» she said.
The order from Xinis, who presided over Abrego Garcia’s civil case, was ultimately handed down on Wednesday just two minutes after a federal judge in Nashville — U.S. District Judge Waverly Crenshaw — issued a separate order, upholding a lower judge’s decision that Abrego should be released from criminal custody pending trial in January.
Crenshaw said in his order that the government failed to provide «any evidence that there is something in Abrego’s history at warrants detention.»
The plans, which Xinis ascertained over the course of a multi-day evidentiary hearing earlier this month, capped an exhausting, 19-week legal saga in the case of Abrego Garcia that spanned two continents, multiple federal courts, including the Supreme Court, and inspired countless hours of news coverage.
Still, it ultimately yielded little in the way of new answers, and Xinis likened the process to «nailing Jell-O to a wall,» and «beating a frustrated and dead horse,» among other things.
«We operate as government of laws,» she scolded lawyers for the Trump administration in one of many terse exchanges. «We don’t operate as a government of ’take my word for it.’»
FEDERAL JUDGE EXTENDS ARGUMENTS IN ABREGO GARCIA CASE, SLAMS ICE WITNESS WHO ‘KNEW NOTHING’
A person holds up a sign referencing the the CECOT prison in El Salvador during demonstration against President Donald Trump and his immigration policies in Houston, Texas, on May 1, 2025. (Photo: AFP va Getty Images) (AFP via Getty)
Xinis had repeatedly floated the notion of a temporary restraining order, or TRO, to ensure certain safeguards were in place to keep Abrego Garcia in ICE custody, and appeared to agree with his attorneys that such an order is likely needed to prevent their client from being removed again, without access to counsel or without a chance to appeal his country of removal.
«I’m just trying to understand what you’re trying to do,» Xinis said on more than one occasion, growing visibly frustrated.
«I’m deeply concerned that if there’s no restraint on you, Abrego will be on another plane to another country,» she told the Justice Department, noting pointedly that «that’s what you’ve done in other cases.»
Those concerns were echoed repeatedly by Abrego Garcia’s attorneys in a court filing earlier this month.
They noted the number of times that the Trump administration has appeared to have undercut or misrepresented its position before the court in months past, as Xinis attempted to ascertain the status of Abrego Garcia in El Salvador, and what efforts, if any, the Trump administration was making to comply with a court order to facilitate his return.
The Trump administration, who reiterated their belief that the case is no longer in her jurisdiction, will almost certainly move to immediately appeal the restraining order to a higher court.
TRUMP HAS CUSTODY OVER JAILED CECOT MIGRANTS, EL SALVADOR SAYS, COMPLICATING COURT FIGHTS
Demonstrators gather cheering and chanting slogans, during the nationwide «Hands Off!» protest against Trump in Boston, Massachusetts on April 5, 2025. (Joseph Prezioso / AFP via Getty)
The order comes two weeks after an extraordinary, multi-day evidentiary hearing in Greenbelt, Maryland, where Xinis sparred with Trump administration officials as she attempted to make sense of their remarks and ascertain their next steps as they look to deport Abrego Garcia to a third country.
She said she planned to issue the order before the date that Abrego could possibly be released from federal custody— a request made by lawyers for Abrego Garcia, who asked the court for more time in criminal custody, citing the many countries he might suffer persecution in — and concerns about what legal status he would have in the third country of removal.
Without legal status in Mexico, Xinis said, it would likely be a «quick road» to being deported by the country’s government to El Salvador, in violation of the withholding of removal order.
And in South Sudan, another country DHS is apparently considering, lawyers for Abrego noted the State Department currently has a Level 4 advisory in place discouraging U.S. travel due to violence and armed conflict.
Americans who do travel there should «draft a will» beforehand and designate insurance beneficiaries, according to official guidance on the site.
FEDERAL PROSECUTORS TELL JUDGE THEY WILL DEPORT KILMAR ABREGO GARCIA TO A THIRD COUNTRY AFTER DETENTION
Abrego Garcia’s attorneys speak to reporters outside the U.S. District Court in Greenbelt, Maryland, in July. (Breanne Deppisch/Fox News Digital) (Breanne Deppisch/Fox News Digital)
In court, both in July and in earlier hearings, Xinis struggled to keep her own frustration and her incredulity at bay after months of back-and-forth with Justice Department attorneys.
Xinis has presided over Abrego Garcia’s civil case since March, when he was deported to El Salvador in violation of an existing court order in what Trump administration officials described as an «administrative error.»
She spent hours pressing Justice Department officials, over the course of three separate hearings, for details on the government’s plans for removing Abrego Garcia to a third country — a process she likened to «trying to nail Jell-O to a wall.»
Xinis chastised the Justice Department this month for presenting a DHS witness to testify under oath about ICE’s plans to deport Abrego Garcia, fuming that the official, Thomas Giles, «knew nothing» about his case, and made no effort to ascertain answers — despite his rank as ICE’s third-highest enforcement official.
The four hours of testimony he provided was «fairly stunning,» and «insulting to her intelligence,» Xinis said.
Ultimately, the court would not allow the «unfettered release» of Abrego Garcia pending release from federal custody in Tennessee without «full-throated assurances» from the Trump administration that it will keep Abrego Garcia in ICE custody for a set period of time and locally, Xinis said, to ensure immigration officials do not «spirit him away to Nome, Alaska.»
During the July hearing, Judge Xinis notably declined to weigh in on the request for sanctions filed by lawyers for Abrego Garcia, but alluded to it in her ruling Wednesday.
«Defendants’ defiance and foot- dragging are, to be sure, the subject of a separate sanctions motion,» she said in the ruling— indicating further steps could be taken as she attempts to square months of differing statements from Trump officials.
«The Court will not recount this troubling history in detail, other than to note Defendants’ persistent lack of transparency with the tribunal adds to why further injunctive relief is warranted,» she said.
TRUMP’S REMARKS COULD COME BACK TO BITE HIM IN ABREGO GARCIA DEPORTATION BATTLE
This still from video from July 22, 2015 show Paula Xinis from US Senate Judiciary Committee (US Senate Judiciary Committee)
The Justice Department, after a short recess, declined to agree, prompting Xinis to proceed with her plans for the TRO.
Xinis told the court that ultimately, «much delta» remains between where they ended things in court, and what she is comfortable with, given the government’s actions in the past.
This was apparent on multiple occasions Friday, when Xinis told lawyers for the Trump administration that she «isn’t buying» their arguments or doesn’t «have faith» in the statements they made — reflecting an erosion of trust that could prove damaging in the longer-term.
The hearings this week capped months of back-and-forth between Xinis and the Trump administration, as she tried, over the course of 19 weeks, to track the status of a single migrant deported erroneously by the Trump administration to El Salvador—and to trace what attempts, if any, they had made facilitate his return to the U.S.
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Xinis previously took aim at what she deemed to be the lack of information submitted to the court as part of an expedited discovery process she ordered this year, describing the government’s submissions as «vague, evasive and incomplete»— and which she said demonstrated «willful and bad faith refusal to comply with discovery obligations.»
On Friday, she echoed this view. «You have taken the presumption of regularity and you’ve destroyed it, in my view,» Xinis said.
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A plane carrying nearly 50 people on board reportedly crashed in Russia’s Far East on Thursday and local emergency services have located the wreckage.
The country’s Emergency Situations Ministry said search crews found the plane’s burning fuselage on a hillside south of its planned destination in the town of Tynda, which is located near the Russia’s border with China.
Images of the reported crash site circulated by Russian state media show debris scattered among dense forest, surrounded by plumes of smoke.
LONDON-BOUND PLANE CARRYING MORE THAN 200 PEOPLE CRASHES AFTER TAKEOFF IN INDIA
An An-24 aircraft of Angara Airlines lands at the airport of Irkutsk, Russia April 13, 2014. (REUTERS/Marina Lystseva/File Photo)
An initial aerial inspection of the site suggested that there were no survivors, Russia’s Interfax news agency said, citing unnamed sources in the emergency services. Its sources also said that there were difficult weather conditions in the area.
The transport prosecutor’s office said the plane attempted a second approach while trying to land when contact with it was lost.
Forty-three passengers, including five children, as well as six crew members were on board the An-24 passenger plane as it traveled from the city of Blagoveshchensk on the Russian-Chinese border to the town of Tynda, regional Gov. Vasily Orlov said.
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Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry reported that 48 people were on board the flight, which was operated by Siberia-based Angara Airlines. The reason for the discrepancy was not immediately clear.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
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