INTERNACIONAL
Una guerra de Estados Unidos con Irán sería una catástrofe

Estados Unidos está alarmantemente cerca de verse arrastrado a otro enredo militar en Oriente Medio, esta vez por Israel, que cada vez parece menos un verdadero aliado.
El sorpresivo ataque de Israel contra Irán el viernes casi con certeza ha destruido cualquier posibilidad de alcanzar el acuerdo nuclear que Estados Unidos perseguía desde hacía meses. El primer ministro israelí, Benjamin Netanyahu, también ha puesto en peligro imprudentemente a los 40.000 soldados estadounidenses desplegados en la región, poniéndolos en riesgo inmediato de represalias iraníes, lo que podría llevar a Estados Unidos a una guerra con Irán.
Independientemente de cómo Irán interprete nuestro papel en los ataques, Israel parece haber actuado sin avisar a Estados Unidos con la suficiente antelación para que tomara las precauciones adecuadas. Aunque el presidente Trump reconoció el jueves la inminencia de un ataque israelí, Estados Unidos apenas inició las evacuaciones voluntarias de familias de militares y personal no esencial de la embajada el miércoles por la tarde, mientras que el Departamento de Estado comenzó a elaborar planes para la evacuación masiva de ciudadanos estadounidenses apenas horas antes del ataque.
Trump, y todos los estadounidenses, deberían estar furiosos. Ahora, Netanyahu y las voces más agresivas en Estados Unidos casi con seguridad presionarán a Trump para que ayude a Israel a destruir las instalaciones de enriquecimiento nuclear de Irán, algo que será difícil de lograr para el ejército israelí por sí solo y que incluso el ejército estadounidense podría ser incapaz de lograr. Sería el peor error de la presidencia de Trump.
Una guerra con Irán sería una catástrofe, el fracaso culminante de décadas de extralimitación regional por parte de Estados Unidos, y precisamente el tipo de política que Trump ha criticado durante mucho tiempo. Estados Unidos no ganaría nada luchando contra un país débil al otro lado del mundo que causa problemas en su región, pero que no representa una amenaza crítica para nuestra seguridad. Y Estados Unidos perdería mucho: lo más trágico, las vidas de sus militares, junto con cualquier posibilidad de escapar de nuestro tormentoso pasado en la región.
Los estadounidenses de todas las tendencias políticas se oponen a la guerra con Irán, presumiblemente porque comprenden las dos grandes lecciones de la experiencia estadounidense en Oriente Medio durante los últimos 25 años. Las guerras preventivas no solo no funcionan, sino que también tienen consecuencias imprevistas con un impacto duradero en la seguridad nacional de Estados Unidos.
La desafortunada invasión de Irak en 2003 también fue una guerra para prevenir la proliferación nuclear. El desastre sobrevino, y no solo porque Saddam Hussein no tuviera armas de destrucción masiva. La invasión estadounidense desencadenó el caos y la guerra civil en Irak e inclinó la balanza de poder regional a favor de Irán al permitirle establecer nuevas milicias subsidiarias en el país. También condujo al eventual ascenso de ISIS.
No hay motivos para pensar que una guerra con Irán se desarrollaría mejor, y podría resultar considerablemente peor. De ser atraído, la intervención del ejército estadounidense probablemente comenzaría con ataques aéreos en lugar de una invasión terrestre, dado el gran tamaño de Irán y su imponente terreno montañoso. Pero como demostró la infructuosa campaña de 7 mil millones de dólares contra los hutíes, los ataques aéreos son exorbitantemente caros, conllevan un riesgo significativo de bajas estadounidenses y es probable que fracasen de todos modos. Estados Unidos ni siquiera logró la superioridad aérea sobre los hutíes, un grupo militante heterogéneo con la base de recursos de un país empobrecido, Yemen, sobre el cual ni siquiera pudo consolidar el control.
Irán tiene una capacidad de defensa mucho mayor que la de los hutíes. Si los ataques aéreos no logran destruir la capacidad nuclear iraní, la presión sobre las fuerzas estadounidenses aumentaría drásticamente para combinar un bombardeo aéreo con un componente terrestre, quizás algo similar al «modelo afgano» que Estados Unidos utilizó para derrocar a los talibanes. Sabemos cómo resultó. A pesar de la intención de mantener esa guerra pequeña y breve, un enfrentamiento que comenzó con tan solo 1300 soldados estadounidenses en noviembre de 2001 se convirtió en una desastrosa ocupación de 20 años que alcanzó los 100 000 soldados estadounidenses en su punto álgido en 2011 y que finalmente causó la muerte de 2324 militares estadounidenses.
Incluso en el mejor de los casos, en el que Estados Unidos contribuyera a destruir la mayoría de las instalaciones nucleares iraníes, solo retrasaría el progreso de Irán hacia el desarrollo de una bomba. La guerra no puede impedir el desarrollo de armas a largo plazo, por lo que la diplomacia o la negligencia benigna siempre han sido las mejores opciones para lidiar con Irán. Su programa de enriquecimiento tiene más de 20 años, se extiende por múltiples sitios en la República Islámica y emplea a incontables miles de científicos, 3.000 solo en las instalaciones de Isfahán. Es probable que suficientes científicos iraníes sepan cómo enriquecer uranio apto para armas como para que Israel no pueda eliminarlos a todos, a pesar de sus ataques aéreos dirigidos explícitamente contra ellos.
Suponiendo que persista cierta continuidad en el conocimiento técnico, Irán probablemente podría reconstruir sus instalaciones nucleares rápidamente. Y un régimen iraní desafiante sin duda estaría decidido a armar sus instalaciones para disuadir futuros ataques israelíes y estadounidenses.
Esa probabilidad, sumada a la insistencia de Israel en que Irán nunca debe obtener la bomba, sugiere que la teoría de la victoria de Netanyahu podría basarse en una lógica subyacente de cambio de régimen. En apoyo de este argumento, Israel parece estar realizando ataques dirigidos a desmantelar el liderazgo del régimen en Teherán. El líder israelí ha aceptado desde hace tiempo la conveniencia de un cambio de régimen en Irán e insinuó en septiembre que podría ocurrir «antes de lo que se cree». Como declaró una fuente diplomática francesa a Le Monde el otoño pasado: «En ciertos círculos circula la idea de que quizás los israelíes nos estén guiando hacia un momento histórico, que este es el principio del fin del régimen iraní». La caída del régimen sirio Bashar al-Assad en diciembre intensificó las especulaciones sobre una convulsión similar en Irán. Algunos halcones políticos estadounidenses y miembros de la diáspora iraní afirman ahora que el cambio de régimen se está volviendo inevitable; como lo expresó John Bolton, exasesor de seguridad nacional de Trump: «Es hora de pensar en la campaña para un cambio de régimen en Irán».
Eso es pensamiento mágico. La historia ha demostrado una y otra vez que bombardear un país pone a su población en contra del atacante, no en contra de su propio régimen, a pesar de su profunda impopularidad. Las imágenes ya muestran a iraníes manifestándose en las calles, no para oponerse a su gobierno, sino para instar a represalias contra Israel. E incluso si el régimen fuera derrocado, ¿qué ocurriría entonces? A pesar de todos los defectos del gobierno iraní, un mal gobierno es preferible al caos de la inexistencia de gobierno. ¿De verdad queremos convertir a Irán en un estado fallido, como Irak o Libia después de que Estados Unidos atacara a esos países?
Trump suele presumir de su historial durante su primer mandato de no haber iniciado nuevas guerras. Ese historial merece la pena convertirlo en un legado. Debe resistir la presión de Netanyahu y de los halcones en su país para evitar una autolesión trágica e irreparable.
Kelanic es directora del programa de Oriente Medio en Defense Priorities.
INTERNACIONAL
Guerra entre Israel e Irán: Lo que hay que saber sobre los combates

¿Qué pasó en Irán?
¿Quién murió en el ataque de Israel?
¿Qué pasó en Israel?
¿Por qué Israel atacó a Irán?
¿Cómo respondió Estados Unidos?
INTERNACIONAL
Trump heads to Canada for first G7 conference, continues focus on Israel as 22nd week back in office kicks off

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President Donald Trump is expected to have a busy 22nd week back in the Oval Office after celebrating his 79th birthday and attending a massive military parade honoring the Army’s 250th anniversary over the weekend, including traveling to Canada on Sunday for his first G7 summit since his inauguration.
The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires at incoming missiles over Tel Aviv, Israel, Friday, June 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iran
Trump’s week is expected to largely focus on the Middle East after Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iran on Thursday evening after months of attempted and stalled nuclear negotiations and subsequent heightened concern that Iran was advancing its nuclear program.
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The strikes, which were part of Israel’s «Operation Rising Lion,» targeted Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure and killed at least four Iranian military leaders.
Iran said the strikes were a «declaration of war» and has subsequently launched its own strikes on Israel, which have rocked residential communities and left locals killed and buried under the rubble of buildings.
Trump reported on Thursday that the U.S. was made aware ahead of Israel’s initial strikes before they occurred, and he has repeatedly underscored that he wants to reach a nuclear deal with Iran to end the «death and destruction.»
«I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it,’ but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it,» Trump posted to Truth Social on Friday.
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«Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!» he added.
Iran, however, pulled out of nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled for Sunday in Oman.

People stand near a residential building that was hit by an Iranian missile in central Israel on June 15, 2025. (REUTERS/Tomer Appelbaum)
Trump has continued to push for Iran to make a deal, outlining in a Truth Social post on Sunday that he will use trade with the U.S. to leverage a deal between Israel and Iran while citing previous examples of how his intervention led to peace between other nations.
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«During my first term, Serbia and Kosovo were going at it hot and heavy, as they have for many decades, and this long time conflict was ready to break out into WAR,» he posted. «I stopped it (Biden has hurt the longer term prospects with some very stupid decisions, but I will fix it, again!). Another case is Egypt and Ethiopia, and their fight over a massive dam that is having an effect on the magnificent Nile River. There is peace, at least for now, because of my intervention, and it will stay that way! Likewise, we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place. I do a lot, and never get credit for anything, but that’s OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!»

President Donald Trump (Evan Vucci/AP)
Trump heads to G7 summit
Sunday evening, Trump headed to a remote ski resort town in Alberta, Canada, where he will meet with leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the European Union and the United Kingdom on Monday and Tuesday.
The conference of leaders representing seven of the world’s largest economies marks Trump’s first G7 summit of his second administration and comes amid the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
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The summit is expected to focus on conflicts in Israel, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, Trump’s tariff policies and the world’s economy. Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum are also expected to attend the summit.
The summit is slated to run from Monday through Tuesday in the Canadian Rockies, which last hosted a G8 summit in 2002 when Russia was among the countries represented in the informal forum.

Firefighters douse a burning car in Compton, Calif., on June 7, 2025, during a protest in response to federal immigration operations. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
Violent protests against Trump administration continue
Trump is expected to continue juggling violent protests and riots this week stemming from his administration’s efforts to deport millions of illegal immigrants who flooded the U.S. under the Biden administration.
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U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents face demonstrators as tear gas fills the air outside the U.S. Immigration and Customs building during a protest in Portland, Ore., on June 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)
Riots broke out in Los Angeles on June 6, when federal law enforcement officials converged on the city to conduct immigration raids. Local elected Democrat officials, such as Gov. Gavin Newsom and L.A. Mayor Karen Bass, condemned the raids while offering words of support to illegal immigrants. The riots spiraled throughout the week as agitators targeted police with heavy objects, looted stores, set cars on fire and shut down highways.

A demonstrator waves an American and Mexican flag during a protest in Compton, Calif., on June 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
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On Saturday, «No Kings Day» protests were held in cities nationwide as critics of the president took to the streets to argue that Trump has conducted himself like a monarch. The protests were held on the same day as the massive military parade in Washington, D.C., that honored the Army’s 250th anniversary, which fell on the same day as Flag Day and Trump’s 79th birthday.
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The protests devolved into violence in a handful of cities, most notably on the West Coast in Portland, Ore., where four law enforcement officers were injured in a riot, as well as continued violence in Los Angeles.
INTERNACIONAL
Could private security contractors be the ‘day after’ solution in Gaza?

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The question of a «day after» plan in the Gaza Strip has plagued negotiations between Israel, the U.S., Arab nations and Hamas for months and has ultimately led to the terrorist network’s refusal to release the 55 hostages still held there.
However, foreign policy leaders and security experts based in Washington may have the key that could provide a solution to help rebuild the war-torn Gaza Strip where others cannot: private security contractors (PSC).
PSCs, which have heavy experience in the Middle East and decades of lessons learned to draw from, could be used as non-state actors to provide stability and a path forward for the Palestinians, but they would have to start with humanitarian aid, John Hannah, former national security advisor to Dick Cheney and current Randi & Charles Wax senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), told Fox News Digital.
Palestinians continue their daily lives under harsh conditions amid the rubble of destroyed buildings in the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza following the enforcement of a ceasefire agreement on Feb. 10, 2025. (Mahmoud ssa/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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In a plan hatched out following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel and the subsequent outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip, a group of eight members with JINSA and the Vandenberg Coalition comprised a report that detailed how the handling of humanitarian aid could completely change security in the region.
The plan, in part, initially looked similar to the mechanism known as the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which is backed by the U.S. and Israel, and which launched last month to distribute aid to Palestinians.
However, the plan comprised by Hannah and the team took it a step further and argued that these aid actors should also be involved in rebuilding Gaza.
«We thought humanitarian issues was the best way [forward],» Hannah said. «It was the common denominator that would allow all of the major stakeholders that want to get to a better ‘day after’ – Israel, the United States, the key pragmatic Arab states – they all could agree that we can’t agree on a political vision for Palestine 10 years from now, and the issue of a Palestinian state, but we can all agree on this apple pie and motherhood issue that we don’t want to see starving, suffering Palestinians.»

Hamas terrorists emerge in a show of strength, escorting Red Cross vehicles carrying three Israeli hostages to be released as part of the ceasefire deal. (TPS-IL)
The Israel Defense Forces had already detailed the need to eliminate Hamas following the deadliest-ever attack on Israel, but the group of eight experts also identified that aid, long used by Hamas to maintain power by using it to incentivize support and recruitment, and to punish opposition, needed to be the key to cementing actual change.
«We needed a solution on humanitarian aid,» Hannah said. «And when we looked around the world, who could do this, take over the humanitarian aid? We were left with one option.»

Displaced Palestinians line up pans to collect hot food from a charity food distribution center in Gaza City, northern Gaza, on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. (Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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«We didn’t think it should be the Israel Defense Forces. Israel lacks legitimacy with the Palestinian population, and frankly, it had its hands full doing the military job of defeating Hamas,» he added. «American forces weren’t going to do it. We didn’t think Arab forces would step up and do this. And the U.N. system as it existed under UNRWA was illegitimate in the eyes of Israel.»
The group not only briefed the Biden and Netanyahu administrations on the proposal, but held numerous discussions with Israeli officials in 2024 on how such a plan could work.
Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Michael Barbero – who served as deputy chief of staff, Strategic Operations for Multinational Forces-Iraq for 2007-2008 and who was tasked by Gen. David Petraeus to create a system of accountability over PSCs in Iraq following the Blackwater incident in September 2007 known as the Nisour Square massacre – also briefed Israeli officials on how a PSC mechanism could work in the Gaza Strip.
Progress on the proposal appeared to stall by summer last year as then-President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were at increasing loggerheads over humanitarian concerns and mounting civilian Palestinian death tolls.
However, Hannah questioned whether the seed had been planted with Israel by the time the Trump administration re-entered office, enabling the GHF to come in and start distributing aid.
The GHF, though it has distributed over 16 million meals since it began operations in late May, saw a chaotic start with starving Palestinians rushing certain sites and reports of violence unfolding.

A truck loaded with humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip makes its way to the Kerem Shalom crossing in southern Israel, Wednesday, May 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
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Though the reports of the level of chaos have reportedly been exaggerated by Hamas – which ultimately would benefit from the GHF’s failure as experts have explained – the group initially drew some criticism over transparency concerns, though the group has been looking to remedy this with regal updates.
The group, which saw its third leadership in as many weeks earlier this month, told Fox News Digital that despite some frustration among world leaders and aid groups, its goal is to work with major organizations like the United Nations and others to better distribute aid across Gaza where those programs are still flagging.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee confirmed last month that the GHF’s distribution centers would be protected by private security contractors.

Palestinians in Gaza get aid from the U.S. and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. (Gaza Humanitarian Foundation)
Though while Washington backs the effort, State Department spokeperson Tammy Bruce has repeatedly made clear that the GHF is «an independent organization» that «does not receive U.S. government funding.»
However, she has also refused to confirm whether any U.S. officials are working for the program.
PSCs have a storied history in the Middle East, and not only the U.S. war on terror. They have been used by nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which could lend them a level of acceptance that would not be attainable by another force.
The proposal issued by Hannah and his colleagues took the use of PSCs one step beyond humanitarian aid and argued they could make a positive impact in the actual reconstruction of the Gaza Strip – an idea that was also presented to the Trump administration this year.

Displaced Palestinians wait to receive a free meal from a charity food distribution center in Gaza City, northern Gaza, on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. (Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
«It’s not at all foreign to these Arab parties that you might employ PSCs for certain critical missions,» Hannah said. «Our idea was, let’s scale it up. Let’s unify the effort. Let’s have America and the Arabs lead it.
«The Arabs would put in most of the humanitarian aid workers, a lot of the financing, and then they would hire some of these international PSCs with a lot of experience to come in and protect those operations,» he explained. «You’d have the Arabs engaged, which we thought was absolutely critical.»
The plan also included bringing in other international aid organizations that would work with these PSCs to expand developments like housing projects, community development and infrastructure repair to restore electricity and water.
«And eventually, hopefully, begin to identify new leadership, local leadership in Gaza, who would be prepared to cooperate with the operations of this nonprofit entity,» Hannah said. «Local Gazans of goodwill, who wanted to be rid of Hamas, who this entity could provide some support to, some protection to so they can, could begin rebuilding Gaza civil administration.»

Destroyed buildings are pictured in the west of Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on Feb. 11, 2025 amid the current ceasefire deal in the war between Israel and Hamas. (BASHAR TALEB/AFP via Getty Images)
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The plan also addressed the perpetual question of how to deter the next generation of Hamas terrroirsts, particularly amid Israeli military operations.
Hannah argued this issue could be addressed by simultaneously training a «non-Hamas new Palestinian, local Palestinian security force» that would not only have the trust of the local population but could also gain the trust of Israel.
Hannah said he still believes this plan could be a tenable next step to securing the Gaza Strip but urged the Trump administration to take a more direct diplomatic role by leaning on Arab, European and Israeli partners to make it happen.
The White House did not respond to Fox News Digital’s questions about this reporting.
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