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America’s smallest cattle herd in 70 years means rebuilding will take years and beef prices could stay high
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America’s ranchers are facing their smallest cattle herd in 70 years.
Years of punishing drought, rising costs and an aging ranching workforce have thinned herds across the country. Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding will take years and beef prices aren’t likely to ease anytime soon.
«The biggest thing has been drought,» said Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University.
BEEF PRICES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS — BUT AMERICANS AREN’T CUTTING BACK
He said years of dry weather have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, even the cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it hard to rebuild.
«It’s not going to be a quick fix, you’re not going to solve it overnight,» Belasco told Fox News Digital.
Ranchers have sold off many of their cattle in order to cope with rising prices. (Melissa Phillip/Houston Chronicle/Getty Images)
Belasco said the aftereffects of years of drought are still being felt and until ranchers can rebuild their herds, consumers will keep paying the price.
«The primary reason you see prices so high is because we haven’t seen any kind of inventory rebuilding,» he said. «Until you see that rebuild, you probably won’t see prices coming back down again.»
That slow rebuilding is a challenge for the cattle industry, according to Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.
«The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,» Peel said. «We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.»
Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, said there’s no quick way to ease pressure on beef prices, since it takes roughly two years to bring animals to market and several years to rebuild herds.
TRUMP’S BEEF IMPORT PLAN IGNORES KEY ISSUE SQUEEZING AMERICAN CATTLE RANCHERS
Even as ranchers wait for herds to recover, parched conditions are working against them, turning pastures to dust and feed into a luxury.
Research from the Kansas City Federal Reserve found that with each step up in drought severity, cattle-producing regions see about a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size and a 4% decrease in farm income.
To cope, many ranchers are shrinking their herds. A 2022 Farm Bureau survey found that about two in three ranchers have sold animals off, leaving them with roughly one-third fewer cattle than before.
Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding the cattle inventory will take years. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post/Getty Images)
Few people see the challenges of ranching more clearly than Cole Bolton, owner of K&C Cattle Company, whose pastures stretch along the soft edge of the Texas Hill Country.
«I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage. My message to consumers is simple, folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds,» Bolton told Fox News Digital.
Bolton said the region, known for its red dirt and family-run ranches, has gone nearly three months without rain. While showers were finally arriving, he noted that the cattle industry has weathered one setback after another, from market turmoil to extreme conditions, over the past five years.
The growing strain highlights how persistent drought is reshaping the ranching industry and tightening the nation’s livestock supply.
That pressure is being felt not just on ranches but also at the grocery store.
According to USDA data, the average retail price of beef rose from about $8.51 a pound in August 2024 to $9.85 a pound a year later, a gain of roughly 16%.
The «5-market steer price» represents what ranchers earn for live cattle before they’re processed into meat. The «farm-to-retail» spread reflects everything that happens after that – the costs and profits tied to slaughtering, processing, packaging, shipping and selling beef in stores.
Much of that work — and the profits it generates — are concentrated among the industry’s «big four» meatpackers: Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill and National Beef.
Together, these data points show that while ranchers are earning slightly more for their cattle than they were a few years ago, the biggest price increases are happening well after the animals leave the pasture.
Despite the markups between the ranch and the grocery store, demand hasn’t wavered. Americans are still buying beef more than ever.
Americans are still buying beef even as prices climb to nearly $10 a pound. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)
Beef remains the dominant player in the fresh-meat aisle, with $44.3 billion in sales over the past year, a 12% increase that outpaced chicken, pork and turkey, according to Beef Research, a contractor to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.
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Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, told Fox News Digital that strong consumer demand will continue to drive beef prices higher.
«There’s nothing that forces me or you or anybody else when we go into the grocery store to pay more for beef. People are choosing to,» he said. «The consumer desire for beef is strong and, regardless of the supply-side situation, that has the effect of pulling prices up.»
economy,texas,midwest,consumers
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We’ll know Wednesday morning if a special election in Tennessee is truly a referendum on country music, pedal taverns and bachelorettes.
Or, if we can divine a deeper political meaning from the results of the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
Democrat Aftyn Behn is trying to tip the scales in favor of her party in a district which President Trump carried by about 20 points and former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., won by a similar percentage last fall.
Behn faces GOPer Matt Van Epps. It’s a Republican district. But political observers are watching the race to gauge potential weakness by President Trump, a softness in the Trump coalition, issues with the Republican brand or early indications of a possible blue wave in the 2026 midterms.
DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS GO ALL IN ON FINAL 2025 CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT BOX SHOWDOWN
Depending on who you ask, the race for Tennessee’s 7th congressional district – between Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, former state Department of General Services, and Aftyn Behn, a Democratic state representative – may be headed for a photo finish. (George Walker IV/AP Photo)
It was Behn who proclaimed that she abhorred Nashville several years ago. «I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate all the things that make Nashville apparently an ‘it city,’» complained Behn.
About all Behn left out in her animus toward Music City was dissing The Grand Ole Opry, hot chicken and Goo Goo Clusters. But if voters go goo goo over Behn Tuesday, Republicans face a cluster of another sort. A Behn victory may signal major problems for Republicans and President Trump heading into the midterms.
Behn is characterized as the «AOC of Tennessee,» a reference to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Republicans have been sure to boomerang that against Behn, suggesting she’s not in tune with the district, leans too far to the left and is closer to the liberal values of New York or Los Angeles than Nashville. Republicans believe Behn is just a bad fit for Nashville. Kind of like having Bad Bunny perform at the Ryman Auditorium.
«It shouldn’t even be close. But it is,» mused Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., on Fox.
So Republicans are pouring in money to protect the seat. Democrats are pouring in money to steal the seat. If Democrats pull off the upset, the party should uproot the goalposts at FirstBank Stadium in downtown Nashville and dump it in the Cumberland River. Kind of what Vanderbilt fans did last year when the Commodores upset number one-ranked Alabama.
Let’s explore what a Behn win might mean for Republicans. It could indicate that voters are tiring of President Trump. Or that the GOP brand is toxic. Or perhaps it’s the continuation of a trend which Democrats enjoyed this fall: near blowout wins by New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger.
But there’s a downside for Democrats. Yes. They may flip the seat. But a win may also show that the party is tilting more to the left. It would be hard to argue with success if Behn prevails, regardless of her progressive streak. But this may give other liberals ideas that they can win in other red or purple districts. That may work against Democrats – especially since every Republican, except President Trump – has highlighted the left-wing politics of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
TRUMP MAKES 11TH-HOUR PLEA FOR MATT VAN EPPS OVER AFTYN BEHN, WHOM HE CLAIMS ‘HATES CHRISTIANITY’
Democrats probably need to run more centrist candidates in purple areas to regain control of the House. A Behn victory could open the floodgates for a host of progressive candidates in competitive House districts nationwide. Behn’s message – or that of Ocasio-Cortez or Mamdani – won’t work in most places where Democrats need to be successful to seize control of the House.
But what if Republicans hold the seat and Van Epps wins?
It probably depends by how much.
Yes, there were five special elections in 2017 – the first year President Trump was originally in office – which Democrats made competitive. All were closer than they should have been. But Democrats didn’t win any of them. Still, astute political observers suggested there was unpopularity with the president and the GOP agenda. Democrats won 41 seats and gained control of the House in the 2018 midterms.
So, even if Van Epps wins, examine the margin. And if Behn wins, see if Republicans downplay it because it was a special election and the customary electorate just doesn’t turn out for special elections. Especially one wedged between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
If Republicans hold the seat, the GOP will argue this was a repudiation of a leftist like Behn and someone who was out of step. They will also suggest that it’s a GOP seat and Republicans should win anyway. That’s what happened earlier this year when there was consternation before two Florida special elections. But Reps. Randy Fine, R-Fla., and Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla., both won in March.
If Van Epps wins, one must still pay attention to the margin. The seat, last held by former Rep. Mark Green, broke for President Trump by over 20% in 2024. (Nicole Hester/The Tennessean/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Here’s another factor which bears watching: the message the press corps and political observers glean from the election results. After all, special elections are always special. It’s natural for analysts and journalists to search for particular meanings or signposts in these contests. Such was the case with the off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City. Sometimes these observations are spot-on. Other times, they mean nothing. If anything, there is a tendency to over-illuminate the outcomes of these contests. They are moments in time. Kind of like listening to a few bars of a song. Maybe it tells you a lot about the song. Maybe not.
House Republicans could well freak out if Behn is victorious. There’s lots of grumbling among Republicans. Some are frustrated by how their leadership handled the government shutdown. And others could follow Mark Green and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and hit the exits early.
This is a fragile time for House Republicans. That’s one reason why a flip of this seat could mean a little bit more.
DEM HOUSE HOPEFUL GETTING YANKED FROM GOVERNOR’S OFFICE DURING ATTEMPTED SIT-IN GOES VIRAL AHEAD OF ELECTION
Still, it’s rare to flip seats in House special elections. Former Rep. Don Cazayoux, D-La., won a special election in a red district in Louisiana in 2008 after former Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., resigned. But current Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., then won that seat in the general election and served in the House before moving to the Senate.
Former Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, flipped the seat held by former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, in 2022. But she lost reelection that fall.
Former Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., won a special election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., resigned just months into office. Garcia held the seat until Rep. George Whitesides, D-Calif., defeated him a year ago.
Former Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, won a special election in Hawaii in 2010 against two Democrats – former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii. But Democrats got the seat back in 2012.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won a special election in 2022 to flip Alaska’s at-large district from red to blue following the death of late Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska. Young held the seat for nearly 50 years. But Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, defeated Peltola last year.
Just because seats are won in special election upsets, doesn’t mean they’ve permanently fallen to the other party. Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, who unseated his Democratic predecessor, former Rep. Mary Peltola – herself a special election victor – is a prime example. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
In short, even if someone flips a seat, it’s rare that they have the seat for long. Often, only through the next regular election.
So a word of caution as you evaluate the election results on Tuesday night. If Republicans hold the seat, that may be expected. If Democrats flip the seat, some will proclaim it’s the second coming of the Music City Miracle.
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But frankly, it’s probably not.
congress,elections,tennessee,nashville
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Muslim dad, sons allegedly drowned teen over ‘Western’ lifestyle, refusing to wear headscarf
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Dutch prosecutors demanded Friday that a Muslim father and his two sons face up to 25 years in prison for allegedly drowning an 18-year-old family member because they believed her «Western» behavior was bringing shame to the family.
The body of Syrian woman Ryan Al Najjar was found submerged in a lake with hands and feet bound tightly on May 28, 2024, near Joure in northern Netherlands, six days after disappearing, according to authorities. Officials arrested her father and two brothers, then aged 22 and 24, and charged them in connection with her killing, which prosecutors said likely happened on May 22.
«They saw Ryan as a burden that had to be removed,» the Public Prosecution Service said Friday. «Just because she was a young woman who wanted to live her own life.»
Authorities said her male relatives, who come from what they described as a «strict» Islamic family, allegedly killed her after believing she was «behaving too Western in the eyes of her family.» Al Najjar was reportedly targeted after refusing to wear a headscarf in public-like settings.
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Ryan Al Najjar was murdered in May 2024 in the Netherlands. (National Police Corps of the Netherlands)
«The immediate cause of her death appears to be a live video on TikTok, showing Ryan without a headscarf and wearing makeup,» prosecutors said Friday. «The video seriously embarrasses the family, according to their posts, as it does not fit within their traditional views.»
«Once the suspects were aware of the video, they started looking for Ryan,» the authorities added. «According to the Public Prosecution Service, her brothers visited her in Rotterdam and convinced her to come along to a remote location the night before her murder. She was taken to Knardijk, where their father joined. There she was killed.»
Local media NL Times identified the brothers as Mohamed Al Najjar and Muhanad, and their 53-year-old father as Khaled. All three were charged with murdering the young woman, while their father was accused of orchestrating the killing before likely fleeing to Syria, prosecutors said.
CHARLOTTE TRAIN STABBING SUSPECT’S BROTHER SAYS KILLING COULD HAVE BEEN ‘PREVENTED’
Courtroom sketch of suspects Mohammed Al N. (R) and Muhanad Al N. during a hearing in court. The two brothers and their father, Khaled Al N., are suspected of murdering their sister and daughter, Ryan Al Najjar. (Hollandse Hoogte/Shutterstock)
Investigators say Al Najjar was taken to a remote park where «no one for miles around could have heard her» cries for help. Evidence showed signs of strangulation and drowning, and approximately 60 feet of tape had been used to bind her before she was thrown into the water alive. Prosecutors reported that Khaled’s DNA was also found under his daughter’s fingernails, suggesting he was present during the killing.
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Ryan Al Najjar’s body was found in the Oostvaardersplassen nature reserve in Lelystad, Netherlands. (Pierre Crom)
«[Khaled] fled to Syria immediately after the murder and left his sons to take the blame. Cowardly,» the Public Prosecution Service wrote in a statement Friday, according to NL Times. «Khaled has completely destroyed his family.»
Dutch authorities added that extraditing Khaled may be difficult because he married a woman in Syria since Al Najjar’s death, the outlet reported.
The Public Prosecution Service has recommended a 25-year prison sentence for the father and 20 years for each of the two brothers.
The court is scheduled to issue its ruling on Jan. 5.
Fox News Digital reached out to the Public Prosecution Service for more information.
europe,homicide,middle east,crime,syria,islam
El presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, confirmó este domingo que tuvo una conversación telefónica con Nicolás Maduro.
“No diría que salió bien ni mal. Fue una llamada telefónica”, dijo el mandatario sobre la conversación que mantuvo con Maduro, de la cual el diario The New York Times fue el primero en informar.
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En breves declaraciones, Trump confirmó el diálogo con el gobernante chavista: “No quiero comentar al respecto; la respuesta es sí”.
Trump también dijo que su advertencia sobre el cierre del espacio aéreo venezolano no era una señal de un ataque aéreo inminente. “No supongan nada al respecto”, afirmó.
Poco antes, el senador republicano Markwayne Mullin dijo que el gobierno estadounidense le dio a Maduro la oportunidad de abandonar el país. “Por cierto, le dimos a Maduro la oportunidad de irse”, dijo el legislador a la CNN.
Mullin, integrante del Comité de las Fuerzas Armados del Senado estadounidense, afirmó. “Le dijimos que se podía ir a Rusia o a otro país”. Al ser preguntado si Trump planeaba atacar a Venezuela, el senador de Oklahoma respondió: “No, ha dejado muy claro que no vamos a enviar tropas a Venezuela. Lo que intentamos es proteger nuestras propias costas”.
Venezuela denuncia “violación de su soberanía”
En tanto, el gobierno de Venezuela denunció ante la Organización de Aviación Civil Internacional (OACI) la “violación de su soberanía”, luego de que Trump, advirtiera en un mensaje que se debe considerar como cerrado el espacio aéreo venezolano
Lo anunció este domingo el ministro de Transporte, Ramón Velásquez Araguayán. Un avión de Copa Airlines sobrevuela el aeropuerto internacional de Caracas (Foto: REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria)
“El Estado venezolano, en el marco de su diplomacia de paz, ha denunciado por escrito ante la Organización de Aviación Civil Internacional, las graves amenazas contra nuestro espacio aéreo que atentan contra la seguridad en este hemisferio”, indicó el ministro en un comunicado publicado en redes sociales y que fue posteriormente eliminado.
El funcionario indicó que el presidente estadounidense anunció sorpresivamente el “supuesto cierre del espacio aéreo venezolano, sin tener la autoridad requerida para un anuncio de este tenor y sin basamento legal alguno”.
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“Tal acto constituye un caso de interferencia ilícita, tipificado como un grave delito en el anexo 17 del Convenio de Aviación Civil Internacional, al poner en peligro la seguridad operacional de la aviación mediante la difusión de información falsa”, apuntó, citado por EFE.
Velásquez Araguayán ratificó que el ente autorizado para regular el espacio aéreo venezolano es exclusivamente la Autoridad Aeronáutica Nacional (INAC). “Ningún poder extranjero podrá sustituir, en forma alguna, el ejercicio de la jurisdicción venezolana”, insistió.
El Gobierno de Venezuela, prosiguió, rechaza que la Administración de Trump “pretenda amedrentar y presionar a las aerolíneas internacionales que operan en Venezuela y transitan el FIR Maiquetía, causando perjuicios y daños económicos a las empresas aéreas de países como Turquía, España, Portugal, Colombia, Brasil y Panamá, bajo el fraudulento supuesto del control” del espacio aéreo del país suramericano.
Este sábado, Trump advirtió en un mensaje publicado en su red social Truth que las aerolíneas y los pilotos tengan en cuenta que el espacio aéreo de Venezuela “permanecerá cerrado en su totalidad”.
“A todas las aerolíneas, pilotos, narcotraficantes y traficantes de personas: les rogamos que consideren que el espacio aéreo sobre Venezuela y sus alrededores permanecerá cerrado en su totalidad”, afirmó el mensaje del mandatario.
Por el momento, solo Copa, Wingo, Boliviana de Aviación y Satena, así como las compañías locales Avior y Conviasa (estatal) mantienen sus operaciones en el país.
Maduro pidió ayuda a la OPEP
Según una carta de Maduro divulgada este domingo, Venezuela pidió a la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) ayuda para detener la “agresión” de Estados Unidos.
“Espero contar con sus mejores esfuerzos para contribuir a detener esta agresión que se gesta con cada vez más fuerza y amenaza seriamente los equilibrios del mercado energético internacional”, señala la misiva leída por la vicepresidenta Delcy Rodríguez durante un comité ministerial de la OPEP realizado virtualmente.
En la carta, Maduro advierte que Estados Unidos pretende derrocarlo y apoderarse de las reservas petroleras más grandes del mundo. Una acción militar desde el norte “pone en grave peligro la estabilidad de la producción petrolera venezolana y el mercado mundial”, sostiene.
(Con información de AFP y EFE)
Donald Trump, Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela
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