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As Trump’s standoff with Maduro deepens, experts warn the next move may force a showdown
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Absent direct military action, President Donald Trump is running low on options amid his standoff with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to experts.
Strikes near Venezuelan waters aimed at drug traffickers, sanctions and a $50 million bounty have so far been unsuccessful in forcing Maduro, whom the U.S. has designated as a leader of the Tren de Aragua drug cartel, to step down from power.
After repeated threats, adversaries may now view a lack of direct military action as a sign of weakness from the U.S. But Maduro is in an equally difficult position — his own military capabilities are dwarfed in comparison to Trump’s, and experts say China and Russia lack the will to directly challenge the U.S. in its own hemisphere.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking: Trump’s unprecedented military buildup in the Caribbean — including sending the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the region — is taking away resources from other theaters.
WASHINGTON’S SHADOW WAR: HOW STRIKES ON CARTELS THREATEN TO COLLAPSE MADURO’S REGIME
Navy deploys USS Gerald R. Ford and robotic vessels for anti-drug mission in Latin America. (Jonathan Klein/AFP via Getty Images)
Katherine Thompson, a senior fellow in defense and foreign policy studies at the libertarian think tank the Cato Institute, said that there are very few tools left at Trump’s disposal to oust Maduro, aside from a targeted strike against the Venezuelan leader or a land invasion.
While the White House has not directly said that it is seeking regime change, recent media reports indicate that Trump and Maduro have spoken about the Venezuelan leader departing his post.
Thompson noted that previous efforts to squeeze out Maduro, including imposing sanctions on Venezuela and backing opposition leader Juan Guaidó during Trump’s first term, have proven unsuccessful.
«It does not seem like there is — outside of the military option — anything new on the table that hasn’t really been tried,» Thompson said.
Even so, Thompson cast doubt on whether military action would prove successful.
«If the offer on the table from the Trump administration is we’re going to potentially execute an invasion unless you talk to us, perhaps that’s a strong enough diplomatic, strategic move that gets Maduro to capitulate,» Thompson said. «But it just doesn’t seem like we’re picking up that many signals from the Maduro regime that that is going to be palatable.»
Meanwhile, Thompson said that adversaries like Russia and China are probably confused about why the Trump administration has fixated on the Maduro regime, which doesn’t jeopardize U.S. interests as much as other actors, when the Trump administration has adopted an «American First» mantra.
«I imagine for them, it’s probably a bit puzzling, if they’re looking at it through a real, brass tacks, realist lens, why this administration would be prioritizing ousting the Maduro regime, as opposed to conflicts in other theaters,» Thompson said.
U.S. strikes on drug boats near Venezuelan waters may be targeted at taking out Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. (@realDonaldTrump/Truth Social; Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)
TRUMP UNLEASHES US MILITARY POWER ON CARTELS. IS A WIDER WAR LOOMING?
As a result, the Trump administration’s actions focusing on Venezuela likely leave a bit of «befuddlement» on the part of Russia and China about how serious the U.S. is about putting American interests first, Thompson said.
She added that China may be wondering if the U.S. diverting resources, such as directing the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean, could provide an opportunity for it to invade Taiwan if the U.S. is tied up with operations in Venezuela. Multiple U.S. officials have said they believe China will be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.
Will Russia and China back Venezuela?
While there may be greater interest from China to take action within its own theater, experts agreed it was unlikely that Russia or China would actually get involved and back Venezuela should military operations between the U.S. and Caracas escalate — even though Moscow and Beijing are strategic allies with Venezuela.
Some analysts said Maduro would find himself largely isolated if Trump launched military strikes against Venezuela. Russia, still consumed by its war in Ukraine, is unlikely to offer anything beyond denunciations of U.S. action, and China, despite years of deep economic engagement with Caracas, is also expected to stop well short of military involvement, they said.
From Moscow’s perspective, there is both ideological and strategic discomfort with an American intervention — but little appetite or capability to counter it.
«Moscow opposes unilateral U.S. military intervention, especially when aimed at toppling a friendly authoritarian regime. That said, Russia lacks the will and ability to stop U.S. intervention in this part of the world should Trump decide to go that route,» said John Hardie, a Russian military analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
TRUMP GAVE MADURO ULTIMATUM TO FLEE VENEZUELA AS LAND OPERATIONS LOOM: REPORT
Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Sept. 2, 2025. (China Daily via REUTERS)
Hardie said Russia is watching Washington’s internal debate carefully.
«Analysts in Moscow interpret the internal debate in Washington over Venezuela as evidence that although Republican views on foreign policy are shifting, the more traditional, hawkish camp still retains influence,» Hardie said. «This whole episode probably also reinforces Russian views of Trump as unpredictable and impulsive, though I suspect Moscow is glad to see Trump prioritizing the Western Hemisphere over other regions more central to Russian interests.»
China’s likely response would mirror its recent behavior in other conflicts. Beijing has major financial stakes in Venezuela but has shown little willingness to risk confrontation with the United States, especially in the Western Hemisphere.
Jack Burnham, a China analyst at FDD, said Maduro should take note of how China behaved during the 12-Day War, when Iran came under intense U.S.- and Israeli-led strikes.
«If Maduro is expecting support from China, he should have had his expectations corrected by Tehran’s recent experience under fire,» Burnham said. «Despite China providing key war-related materials to Iran prior to the 12 Day War, once the conflict escalated, Beijing stood down, content to stand on the sidelines and offer statements.»
Burnham said that same pattern would likely apply now: «If American military action accelerates, look for Beijing to engage in a war of words rather than send badly needed supplies to Caracas.»
Trump’s crusade against drugs
The Trump administration has beefed up its military presence off the coast of Venezuela and has adopted a hard-line approach to address the flow of drugs into the U.S. For example, it designated drug cartel groups like Tren de Aragua, Sinaloa and others as foreign terrorist organizations in February.
The Trump administration has repeatedly said it does not recognize Maduro as a legitimate head of state, but instead, a leader of a drug cartel. In August, the Trump administration upped the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, labeling him «one of the largest narco-traffickers in the world.»
Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro brandishes a sword said to have belonged to independence hero Simon Bolivar during a civic-military event at the military academy in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)
On Sunday, Trump confirmed that he spoke to Maduro over the phone last week, after the New York Times reported that the two had talked, but declined to provide specifics on what they discussed. However, The Miami Herald reported on Sunday that Trump gave Maduro an ultimatum, guaranteeing the Venezuelan leader and his family safety — if he resigned immediately.
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The White House did not provide comment when asked if the Trump administration is pushing a regime change, and whether Maduro had been offered any incentives to step down. However, the officials said all options are on the table to mitigate the influx of drugs into the U.S.
«President Trump has been clear in his message to Maduro: stop sending drugs and criminals to our country,» White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement to Fox News Digital on Tuesday. «The President is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding in to our country.»
The White House did not respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital on The Miami Herald’s report.
Additionally, the New York Post reported on Tuesday that U.S. officials are discussing potentially sending Maduro to Qatar, although officials familiar with Qatar’s role in the negotiations said Maduro will not head there. It’s unclear where Maduro would flee to, and no countries have confirmed they will accept him.
Trump’s reported negotiation with Maduro comes as the strikes in the Caribbean are facing heightened scrutiny from the legal community and lawmakers.
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Venezuelan vessel destroyed during U.S. military strike off of Venezuela Sept. 2, 2025. (@realDonaldTrump via Truth Social)
While lawmakers have questioned the legality of the strikes since the beginning, the attacks have come under renewed scrutiny after the Washington Post reported on Friday that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth verbally ordered everyone onboard the alleged drug boat to be killed in a Sept. 2 operation. The Post reported that a second strike was conducted to take out the remaining survivors on the boat.
On Monday, the White House confirmed that a second strike had occurred, but disputed that Hegseth ever gave an initial order to ensure that everyone on board was killed when asked specifically about Hegseth’s instructions.
The White House also said Monday that Hegseth had authorized Adm. Frank «Mitch» Bradley to conduct the strikes, and that Bradley was the one who ordered and directed the second one.
At the time of the Sept. 2 strike, Bradley was serving as the commander of Joint Special Operations Command, which falls under U.S. Special Operations Command. He is now the head of U.S. Special Operations Command.
According to Hegseth, carrying out a subsequent strike on the alleged drug boat was the right call.
«Admiral Bradley made the correct decision to ultimately sink the boat and eliminate the threat,» Hegseth said Tuesday.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth arrives for a news conference at the Pentagon, June 22, 2025, in Arlington, Virginia. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Altogether, the Trump administration has conducted more than 20 strikes against alleged drug boats in Latin American waters, and has enhanced its military presence in the Caribbean to align with Trump’s goal to crack down on drugs entering the U.S.
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The last confirmed strike occurred on Nov. 15. Hegseth said Tuesday that although there has been a pause in strikes in the Caribbean because alleged drug boats are becoming harder to find, the Trump administration’s crusade against drugs will continue.
«We’ve only just begun striking narco-boats and putting narco-terrorists at the bottom of the ocean because they’ve been poisoning the American people,» Hegseth said Tuesday.
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President Vladimir Putin said the development of Russia’s nuclear triad was an «absolute priority» Monday as he outlined the country’s stance on its weapons program, according to reports.
Marking Russia’s Defender of the Fatherland Day, the Russian leader spoke about strengthening the country’s nuclear capabilities before presenting state awards to officers involved in the invasion of Ukraine, the Moscow Times reported.
In his speech, Putin referred to the Russian nuclear triad, which is the country’s three-pronged system for delivering nuclear weapons, designed to ensure a credible second-strike capability.
Putin described its development as «an absolute priority,» saying that it «guarantees Russia’s security and ensures effective strategic deterrence and a balance of forces in the world.»
President Vladimir Putin declares Russia’s nuclear triad development an «absolute priority» on Defender of the Fatherland Day, emphasizing strategic deterrence capabilities. ( Contributor/Getty Images)
Putin also emphasized his country would continue to strengthen its army and navy, «taking into account developments in the international situation, based on combat experience gained,» amid the Russia-Ukraine war.
He added that Russia would also «significantly» enhance the capabilities of other branches of the armed forces, increasing their combat readiness, mobility, and ability to operate in all conditions, even the most challenging.
«And, of course, we will accelerate the development of advanced systems for the armed forces,» he added.
Putin’s remarks came after Russia suspended its participation in the New START Treaty on Feb. 5, 2023, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Moscow and Washington.
RUSSIA FIRES NEW HYPERSONIC MISSILE IN MASSIVE UKRAINE ATTACK, KREMLIN SAYS
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns the Russian leader has launched «World War III.»
The treaty limited the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems each country could have.
Russian officials have said they will continue to take a «responsible» approach to managing their strategic nuclear arsenal and would respect previously established limits.
Putin’s announcement came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that the Russian leader had effectively launched «World War III» with his invasion of Ukraine four years ago.
«I believe that Putin has already started it. The question is how much territory he will be able to seize and how to stop him… Putin will not stop at Ukraine,» Zelenskyy told the BBC in an interview Feb. 23.
RUSSIA SHIFTS FROM TALK TO ACTION, TARGETING NATO HOMELAND AMID FEARS OF GLOBAL WAR
Smoke rises over the Kyiv skyline after a Russian attack, Monday, July 8, 2024. Russian forces launched multiple ballistic and cruise missiles against Ukrainian targets on Monday, Ukraine’s air force said, with explosions felt and heard across the capital, Kyiv. (AP Photo/ Evgeniy Maloletka)
Zelenskyy described the war as part of Putin’s broader attempt to impose a «different way of life» on the world.
«Stopping Putin today and preventing him from occupying Ukraine is a victory for the whole world,» he said.
However, when asked about the possibility of ceding the embattled Donbas region to Moscow as part of a peace deal, he warned that Russia would likely rebuild its military strength within «no more than a couple of years» and launch another invasion.
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«Where would he go next? We do not know, but that he would want to continue [the war] is a fact,» Zelenskyy said.
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INTERNACIONAL
Asumió el nuevo primer ministro de Países Bajos: es el más joven de la historia y está en pareja con un argentino
El liberal progresista Rob Jetten, pareja del jugador argentino de la selección masculina de hockey Nicolás Keenan, asumió este lunes como nuevo primer ministro de Países Bajos.
Jetten, líder de una coalición de centroderecha en minoría, juró el cargo ante el rey Guillermo Alejandro de Países Bajos, esposo de la reina Máxima Zorreguieta.
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De esa manera, comenzó una legislatura con una estabilidad cuestionada que dependerá de pactos con la oposición para sacar adelante su agenda.
Jetten, de 38 años, ganó las elecciones el 22 de octubre al imponerse al ultraderechista Geert Wilders. Así, se convirtió en el primer ministro más joven de la historia de su país.
Está comprometido con Nicolás Keenan, integrante de Los Leones, desde 2023. Hoy, el jugador argentino subió un video en sus redes sociales en el momento previo de la jura. .
Cómo será el nuevo gobierno neerlandés
El Ejecutivo de Jetten quedó investido tras la ceremonia de juramento ante el monarca en el palacio Huis ten Bosch, en la ciudad neerlandesa de La Haya, donde los ministros firmaron los decretos reales que formalizan el traspaso de poderes.
El gabinete, que gobernará en minoría, está compuesto por 18 ministros y 10 secretarios de Estado. Tras la ceremonia, los ministros posaron en la tradicional foto oficial en la escalera del palacio, una imagen reservada exclusivamente a los titulares de cartera y no a los secretarios de Estado.
El rey Guillermo junto al nuevo premier Rob Jetten y los nuevos miembros del gabinete (Foto: REUTERS/Peter Lous)
La distribución de cargos refleja el equilibrio interno de la coalición en base a la representación parlamentaria de cada partido socio del gabinete: el liberal de izquierdas D66 aporta diez miembros al gabinete, el liberal de derechas VVD nueve y el democristiano CDA ocho.
Completa el gabinete la independiente Sandra Palmen, secretaria de Estado responsable del proceso de reparación del escándalo de las ayudas sociales a padres con hijos.
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En su cuenta personal, Jetten publicó una fotografía junto a los futuros representantes de D66 en el Ejecutivo, acompañada de un mensaje en el que expresó su “orgullo por asumir la responsabilidad de gobernar y su compromiso de construir lo que puede ir mejor” para todos los ciudadanos.
El nuevo gabinete inicia así una legislatura marcada por la necesidad de negociar con la oposición para sacar adelante sus iniciativas, en un Parlamento fragmentado que anticipa una legislatura exigente para el Ejecutivo recién investido.
Cuáles son las prioridades del nuevo gobierno
El acuerdo de gobierno, presentado a finales de enero, fija como prioridades el aumento del gasto en defensa hasta el 3,5% del PIB, un mayor control del asilo y un papel más activo de Países Bajos en la Unión Europea (UE), con especial énfasis en seguridad, tecnología (semiconductores) y autonomía.
En materia migratoria y de asilo, apuesta por una línea más restrictiva y coordinada a nivel europeo. Además, buscará que las solicitudes puedan tramitarse fuera de Europa, con la intención de reducir las llegadas y evitar que los procedimientos se desarrollen en territorio neerlandés.
El texto contempla acelerar procedimientos, reforzar centros de régimen estricto y, en caso de aumentar la presión migratoria, suspender temporalmente la reagrupación familiar.
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El nuevo gobierno también sitúa a la UE en el centro de su política exterior y defiende decisiones por mayoría cualificada en política exterior y seguridad, endurecer los mecanismos contra Estados miembros que vulneren los principios comunitarios y mantener el compromiso con el apoyo militar y financiero a Ucrania “de forma plurianual e ininterrumpida”.
El acuerdo señala que la relación transatlántica se mantendrá, aunque Países Bajos se reserva el derecho de “interpelar de forma creíble” a Washington cuando sus acciones afecten a valores e intereses europeos. Finalmente, defiende un mayor énfasis en sanciones y protección de tecnologías sensibles frente a países como Rusia, China e Irán.
(Con información de EFE)
Países Bajos
INTERNACIONAL
Former Secret Service officials warn of low-tech threats facing Trump after latest Mar-a-Lago breach
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A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Sunday is the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents threatening President Donald Trump, as former Secret Service officials warn that low-tech, lone actors now pose one of the toughest challenges to presidential protection.
«It should be quite clear to all of us by now that Trump is the most threatened president in the history of the U.S.,» former Secret Service agent William «Bill» Gage told Fox News Digital Monday, pointing to multiple high-profile incidents in recent years. Unlike past presidencies, where threat levels often subsided over time, Gage said, «the longer he’s president, the more these attacks keep happening.»
Gage said the most difficult cases to prevent are often the least sophisticated. The recent incidents, he noted, were «super low-tech attacks by people with zero training,» using rudimentary weapons. «If you were standing behind them in line at Starbucks, you wouldn’t have given them a second look,» he said.
Gage said the threat landscape shifted over the course of his 12-year career as a Secret Service agent. When he joined the Secret Service in 2002, he said the agency was moving away from what he described as the traditional «lone gunman» model — figures like Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated John F. Kennedy, or international militants such as «Carlos the Jackal,» one of the world’s most wanted terrorists in the ‘70s and ’80s — and adapting to a post-9/11 world focused on coordinated terrorist networks like al Qaeda and later ISIS.
A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Sunday is the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents involving President Donald Trump. (Marco Bello/Reuters)
«But if you look at Butler and the two incidents at Mar-a-Lago, those were super low-tech attacks,» Gage said. «The low-tech actors are the ones that tend to slip through the cracks.»
He also warned of a potential copycat effect when details of such incidents become public.
«If it were up to the Secret Service, they would never report any of these incidents ever,» Gage said, arguing that widespread coverage allows others to «study what happened» and attempt to refine it.
In today’s hyperconnected political climate, he said, that dynamic adds another layer of complexity for agents trying to stop the next threat before it materializes.
In the early hours of Sunday, a 21-year-old man identified as Austin Tucker Martin of North Carolina was shot and killed by U.S. Secret Service agents and a local sheriff’s deputy after entering the secure perimeter of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.
Authorities say Martin drove through the north gate carrying a shotgun and a gasoline can. After being ordered to drop both, he dropped the can but raised the shotgun toward officers, who fired and killed him at the scene. Trump and First lady Melania Trump were in Washington at the time.
The incident marked the third highly publicized security encounter involving Trump in less than two years.
In July 2024, a gunman opened fire at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, grazing Trump’s ear and killing an attendee before being shot by a Secret Service sniper.
In September 2024, a man armed with a rifle was confronted by agents near Trump’s golf course while he was playing; that suspect was later convicted on attempted assassination charges.
While the incidents have drawn intense attention, former Deputy Assistant Director Don Mihalek said the latest Mar-a-Lago intrusion does not necessarily signal a breakdown in protective systems.
«He got through an exterior gate of an active club,» Mihalek told Fox News Digital. «This wasn’t someone reaching the president’s residence.»
Agents confronted the suspect within seconds, he said, describing the rapid response as evidence that overlapping security layers functioned as designed.
Mihalek said presidential protection relies on multiple rings of security because outer perimeters at properties like Mar-a-Lago cannot be sealed in the same way as the White House.
«If he ended up in the president’s house on Mar-a-Lago, that might be a different conversation,» he said.
He also cautioned against viewing recent incidents in isolation, noting that presidents routinely face roughly 2,000 threats per year, most of which are mitigated before the public ever becomes aware of them.
«These just happen to be very public instances,» Mihalek said, arguing that the social media era amplifies perceptions of escalation.
Then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is whisked away by Secret Service after shots rang out at a campaign rally at Butler Farm Show Inc. July 13, 2024, in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
GUNFIRE, ARSON AND VANDALISM: TRACKING POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN AMERICA
Mihalek pointed to the 2024 rally shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania, as an example of how early intervention can be decisive, noting that local law enforcement had reportedly identified the suspect prior to the attack.
«If somebody had walked up and said, ‘Hey, who are you?’ we wouldn’t be talking about Butler,» he said.
As Trump prepares to address Congress at the State of the Union, both former officials said the security posture at the Capitol is unlikely to change in response to the weekend incident.
The annual address is designated a National Special Security Event — the highest level of federal security planning — triggering coordination among the Secret Service, U.S. Capitol Police, FBI, War Department and other agencies. The designation allows for expanded perimeter controls, airspace restrictions and continuity-of-government planning.
Barricades go up around the Capitol ahead of the State of the Union. (Kylie Cooper/Reuters)
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Gage, who previously led advance planning for State of the Union addresses, said the event operates under a well-established security «blueprint» built to account for worst-case scenarios. «There’s really no way to increase it anymore,» he said.
Both former officials said the defining challenge for presidential protection today is unpredictability: individuals with minimal training, rudimentary weapons and the ability to find reinforcement online. Unlike organized extremist networks, such actors may leave few detectable signals before acting.
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