INTERNACIONAL
Can Maduro survive as Trump’s oil pressure campaign hits his regime’s weak spot?
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For years, Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has defied predictions of collapse. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation and internal unrest have failed to unseat him. But the latest escalation by the Trump administration — including the seizure of a Venezuelan crude tanker and the enforcement of a blockade on sanctioned vessels — has hit the regime where it is most vulnerable: its oil trade.
Melissa Ford Maldonado, director of the Western Hemisphere Initiative at the America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital that while the timeline and outcome remain uncertain, the regime’s dependence on oil leaves it uniquely vulnerable. «One thing is clear: the Maduro regime can’t sustain itself without oil revenue,» she said.
While the U.S. move has raised concerns among European allies, who warned that the escalation could undermine regional stability and complicate efforts toward a political resolution in Venezuela, Ford Maldonado says the administration’s approach is striking at the core of Maduro’s power.
«What we’re seeing now with President Trump’s order for a total blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela is a direct hit against Maduro’s revenue streams,» she said. «He needs the oil money from these tankers to buy loyalty and pay off generals, cartel partners and political enforcers to stay in power. That pipeline is finally being cut.»
MADURO SINGS, DANCES AND THREATENS TO ‘SMASH THE TEETH’ OF THE ‘NORTH AMERICAN EMPIRE’
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt was questioned about the U.S. seizing an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. (Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters )
According to Reuters, up to 11 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are currently stranded aboard 39 tankers anchored offshore.
Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said the recent U.S. actions «fundamentally change the economics of Venezuela’s oil exports.
«That oil is neither sold nor paid for,» Jraissati said. «Until those cargoes move, they generate no cash flow for PDVSA and deepen Maduro’s liquidity strain.» PDVSA is Venezuela’s state-run oil company.
Venezuela is one of the most oil-dependent countries on earth. Oil accounts for more than 80% of exports and roughly 90% of government revenue, leaving the nation extraordinarily exposed when crude shipments falter.
«After years of economic collapse as a result of Venezuela’s socialist policies, virtually all other sectors of the economy are bankrupted,» Jraissati noted.
A gas flare behind a coking coal pile at the Jose Antonio Anzotegui Petrochemical Complex in Barcelona, Anzoategui state, Venezuela, on Monday, May 22, 2023. (Carolina Cabral/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil have been in place since 2019, but enforcement often lagged, and PDVSA continued to move crude through intermediaries and opaque trading networks, mainly toward Asia. The recent tanker seizure appears to have changed that dynamic.
The Trump administration said the seized vessel was headed for Cuba, but Jraissati argued China was the more likely destination. «Tankers of that size are typically deployed on long-haul routes, and China accounts for roughly 60% percent of Venezuela’s oil exports,» he said.
Not only has crude become harder to sell, it has become cheaper. Venezuelan heavy crude is trading at discounts of up to $21 per barrel below Brent, according to sources cited by Jraissati and confirmed by Reuters reporting.
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Newly released footage shows U.S. forces securing a Venezuelan oil tanker. (@AGPamBondi via X)
«The seizure is already reshaping Venezuela’s oil trade,» he said. «PDVSA is facing stuck cargoes, rising price discounts and new demands from buyers to renegotiate spot contracts.»
Oil tankers, with cargoes worth tens of millions of dollars, now face heightened risk if they enter Venezuelan waters. This has sent buyers and shipowners scrambling for insurance and new terms.
«In general terms, this is a game-changing policy because it fundamentally alters the economics of exporting oil from Venezuela,» Jraissati said. «Exports will not stop, but the conditions under which they are sold will deteriorate sharply. It will weaken Maduro’s cash flow.»
EXPERT REVEALS WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR TRUMP TO DEPLOY TROOPS TO VENEZUELA: ‘POSSIBILITY OF ESCALATION’
An oil tanker is seen anchored in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela after loading crude oil at the Bajo Grande Refinery port. (Jose Bula Urrutia/UCG/Universal Images Group/Getty Images)
For years, Venezuela has used a «shadow» or «dark» fleet — vessels that turn off tracking systems, swap names and switch flags — to move crude around sanctions. Jraissati said this network of ships tries to obscure ownership through shell companies and frequent reflagging.
Even these workarounds are under strain as insurers and ports become wary of vessels linked to Venezuelan crude.
MADURO TRAPPED WITH FEW RETALIATION OPTIONS AFTER TRUMP ADMIN SEIZES VENEZUELAN OIL TANKER
U.S. forces were seen climbing staircases on the ship. (@AGPamBondi via X)
Jraissati painted a grim picture of Venezuelan society already unraveling under economic collapse.
«80% of people in Venezuela are in poverty,» he said. «50% are in extreme poverty, meaning they don’t make even $3 a day.»
He added that more than 30% of the population — around 8 million people — have left the country amid the ongoing crisis.
Jraissati cautioned that oil pressure alone will not topple Maduro, but described the current combination of sanctions, seizures and diplomatic isolation as unprecedented.
«This needs to be seen as a combination of actions. Oil pressure alone is not enough. Diplomatic pressure alone is not enough. But when all of these are combined, there is a much greater possibility of Maduro actually falling,» he said.
Cale Brown, chair of Polaris National Security and a former State Department principal deputy spokesperson, said authoritarian regimes often endure sanctions by shifting into illicit revenue streams.
US SET TO SEIZE TENS OF MILLIONS IN VENEZUELAN OIL AFTER TANKER INTERCEPTION, WHITE HOUSE SAYS
Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro greets his supporters during a rally in Caracas on Dec. 1, 2025. (Pedro Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images)
«Regimes like Maduro’s display little concern about the impact of sanctions on their own people, and when traditional sources of income dry up, they seek other lifelines, as Maduro has with narcotics and other forms of illicit finance,» Brown said.
Still, Brown said Washington’s strategy reflects broader security concerns, drug and human trafficking and hostile foreign influence in the Western Hemisphere.
«President Trump is right to identify Venezuela as ground zero for many of the problems we are concerned with in the Western Hemisphere,» Brown said.
Maduro has survived sanctions, protests and isolation before. But analysts say the current oil crackdown directly threatens the regime’s ability to pay security forces, maintain patronage networks and keep the state functioning.
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In this April 13, 2019, file photo, Nicolas Maduro, speaks flanked by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, right, and Gen. Ivan Hernandez, second from right, head of both the presidential guard and military counterintelligence in Caracas, Venezuela. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)
«It’s very important that we continue to emphasize that Venezuela’s oil does not belong to Maduro or his cronies,» Ford Maldonado said, «It belongs to the Venezuelan people who made their choices clear at the ballot box last year and have been robbed blind by the regime which continues to enrich itself and hijack the country’s primary economic lifeline to stay in power. Cutting off that cash is the fastest way to weaken the regime, and weakening the regime helps the Venezuelan people!»
venezuelan political crisis,donald trump,narco terror,global economy
INTERNACIONAL
Did they get him? Khamenei’s fate remains unknown after Israel strike levels his compound
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As the smoke was still clearing over Tehran, one question dominated the region and Washington alike: Did they get him?
In the immediate aftermath of the Israel-U.S. strikes, with the Israeli Air Force targeting senior Iranian leadership infrastructure, rumors swirled that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, had been killed.
Satellite images showed heavy damage to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fortified compound, including buildings believed to house his residence and the so-called House of Leadership. Parts of the complex appeared reduced to rubble.
Regional reports indicated a high-level meeting of Khamenei’s top lieutenants may have been underway when the strike hit. Iranian semi-official media also reported missiles struck near the presidential palace and other leadership sites north of the capital.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei makes first public appearance in weeks with fresh U.S. threats. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader Credit/ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Addressing the nation on Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in Hebrew, «There are more and more signs indicating Khamenei is gone.»
Israeli officials told Fox News Digital they were still assessing the results and said it was too early to confirm the fate of the 86-year-old supreme leader. They did not rule out the possibility that he was killed.
Iranian officials, however, insisted the country’s leadership — including Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian — remained safe, according to The Guardian, despite what they described as an assassination attempt. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the BBC that he was not in a position to confirm whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been eliminated.
IRAN FIRES MISSILES AT US BASES ACROSS MIDDLE EAST AFTER AMERICAN STRIKES ON NUCLEAR, IRGC SITES
In this picture released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stands as army air force staff salute at the start of their meeting in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Feb. 8, 2019. Khamenei is defending «Death to America» chants that are standard fare at anti-U.S. rallies across Iran but says the chanting is aimed at America’s leaders and not its people. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)
The long-serving cleric has survived decades of internal unrest, assassination plots and foreign pressure. He rarely appears in public without layers of security and is believed to operate through a tightly controlled network of loyalists embedded across Iran’s military, intelligence and political institutions.
In an exclusive Fox News Digital report earlier this week, researchers described how Khamenei runs what amounts to a parallel state within Iran’s formal government structure.
«The Bayt is the hidden nerve center of the regime in Iran… it operates as a state within a state,» Kasra Aarabi, director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital.
IRAN COULD ‘ACTIVATE’ HEZBOLLAH IF US TARGETS REGIME, TRUMP’S INNER CIRCLE TO DECIDE: EXPERT
Smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Even if Khamenei himself were removed, Aarabi warned, the institutional machinery he built — involving roughly 4,000 core staff and a broader network of tens of thousands — could continue functioning.
«Even if he is eliminated, the Bayt as an institution enables the Supreme Leader to function,» Aarabi said. «Think of the Supreme Leader as an institution rather than just a single individual.»
That reality complicates the picture.
For decades, Khamenei has positioned himself not merely as a political leader but as the apex of a system designed to survive shocks — whether from protests at home or military pressure abroad.
The 86-year-old cleric has faced repeated waves of unrest, including mass protests in 2009, 2022 and again in early 2026. Each time, his regime cracked down forcefully, consolidating control rather than fracturing.
He has also weathered years of covert operations, cyber campaigns and targeted strikes against key Iranian figures across the region.
Still, the scale of the latest strike appears unprecedented.
If confirmed dead, Khamenei’s killing would mark the most significant decapitation of Iranian leadership since the 1979 revolution. It would also raise immediate questions about succession inside a system he carefully engineered to avoid sudden collapse.
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A person holds an image of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranian demonstrators protest against the U.S.-Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 28, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
If he survived, it would reinforce his reputation for resilience — and underscore how difficult it is to eliminate the core of Iran’s power structure.
For now, officials say assessments are ongoing, and the question may be answered in the very near future.
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ali khamenei,war with iran,iran,israel,bombings
INTERNACIONAL
Irán afirma que cerró el estratégico estrecho de Ormuz, en un paso audaz que incendia aún más la región
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Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, both progressive «Squad» members, lashed out at President Donald Trump on Saturday in response to his decision to strike Iran.
«Trump has launched an illegal regime change war,» Omar posted on X. «As someone who has survived the horrors of war, I know military strikes will not make us safer; they will inflame tensions and push the region further into chaos.»
Omar, who fled Somalia as a refugee as a young child, added, «When we abandon diplomacy, we choose destruction.»
Tlaib reacted on social media to a clip of Trump acknowledging that there may be American casualties in this attack.
Rep. Ilhan Omar, with Rep. Rashida Tlaib at her side, speaks at a press conference. (Renee Jones Schneider/Star Tribune via Getty Images)
«He doesn’t care about our loved ones in the military,» Tlaib posted on X in a message that was reposted by Omar. «He doesn’t care about the fact that Americans don’t want this war.»
«He doesn’t care about the Iranian people. He is corrupted. Don’t fall for the lies.»
Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York also slammed President Donald Trump for abandoning diplomacy in favor of launching an attack against Iran, predicting the outcome will be «catastrophic.»
«The American people are once again dragged into a war they did not want by a president who does not care about the long-term consequences of his actions. This war is unlawful. It is unnecessary. And it will be catastrophic,» Ocasio-Cortez said.
«Just this week, Iran and the United States were negotiating key measures that could have staved off war. The President walked away from these discussions and chose war instead. President Trump flippantly acknowledged the possibility of American casualties, stating ‘that often happens in war,’» she continued. «Mr. President: this was not an inevitability. This is a deliberate choice of aggression when diplomacy and security were within reach. Stop lying to the American people.
Democratic Rep. Greg Casar, another progressive House member associated with the informal «Squad» group, called Trump’s actions an «illegal war» in a post on X.
«Yet again, an American president is sending other people’s kids to risk their lives in a senseless regime change war,» Casar said.
The U.S. and Israel launched the joint attack just after 9 a.m. local time in what the Pentagon has dubbed «Operation Epic Fury.»
IF KHAMENEI FALLS, WHO TAKES IRAN? STRIKES WILL EXPOSE POWER VACUUM — AND THE IRGC’S GRIP
In video remarks posted to Truth Social, Trump addressed the Iranian people directly and told them to «seize control of [their] destiny.»
«The hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,» Trump said. «This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No President was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a President who is giving you what you want.»
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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
While Trump focused some of his message on empowering the people of Iran, he stated that the intent of the operation is to «defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,» which he described as «vicious» and «very hard, terrible people.»
Trump also said that while there may be American casualties as a result, the mission is «noble» as it is aimed at stopping a «wicked, radical dictatorship» from threatening American national security interests and destabilizing the Middle East.
Fox News Digital’s Michael Sinkewicz and Alex Nitzberg contributed to this report
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