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Canada stares down consequences of Trump tariff war: Job losses, grocery price hikes, possible recession
Canada is bracing for the fallout of President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war, with economists warning of spiking grocery prices, major job losses and even a potential recession if threatened U.S. tariffs take effect.
The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly two-thirds of Canadian imports and receiving over 70% of its exports. But under Trump’s new «liberation day» tariffs – 25% on Canadian goods and 10% on energy – Ottawa now faces an economic gut punch that could ripple across key provinces, industries and its national election campaign.
Trump has repeatedly blasted what he calls «unfair» trade practices, citing Canada’s trade imbalance with the U.S. to justify the sweeping tariffs.
«This is the beginning of liberation day in America,» Trump said last week. «We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe.»
TRUMP’S 11TH WEEK IN OFFICE SET TO FOCUS ON TARIFFS AS PRESIDENT TOUTS ‘LIBERATION DAY’
Canadians protest U.S. tariffs and other policies of President Donald Trump in Toronto on March 22, 2025. (REUTERS/Carlos Osorio)
Increased tariffs could mean that Americans will see higher price tags on everything ranging from fertilizer and oil, vehicles and machinery, to plastic and wood products, which, theoretically, would deter consumers from purchasing those products and result in a loss for Canada’s economy.
Likewise, Canada in mid-March implemented reciprocal tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, which means Canadians will not only feel losses on a macro scale but also in an immediate sense as prices at the grocery store have spiked on things like leafy greens, citrus, orange juice, beef, pork and fish.
Ottawa has yet to announce any tariffs on U.S. imported vehicles due to reported concerns over how it could further hinder Canada’s economy. Though there are some $95 billion worth of U.S. goods that it is reportedly considering putting tariffs on, depending on Trump’s April 2 announcements, according to Canadian outlet Financial Post.
«They’re in the midst of a general election campaign,» Andrew Hale, a senior policy analyst in trade policy with the Heritage Foundation, told Fox News Digital. «I think it’s very difficult for them to negotiate and put these measures on during an election campaign.
«Everything they do and say now carries electoral weight,» he added, noting that Canadian politicians will need to strike a careful balance: tough enough on Trump to appeal to voters but measured enough to leave room for future negotiations on tariffs.
«If they were to put on reciprocal tariffs, it would damage the Canadian standard of living and have an impact – as all this already is having an impact – in Canada,» Hale said, noting that auto tariffs not only affect direct car sales but all businesses that rely on vehicles, creating a trickle-down effect.
CANADIANS CLAIM THEY ARE CANCELING TRIPS TO US FOR REMAINDER OF TRUMP TERM
Canadian Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to supporters during a rally in Montreal on March 27, 2025. A federal election has been called, and Canadian voters go to the polls on April 28. (Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images)
While Trump has argued that his tariffs protect U.S. manufacturing – especially the auto sector – the fallout could be far more severe for Canada. Immigration Minister Marc Miller has warned that up to 1 million Canadian jobs are at risk.
«Most Canadians live within 100 miles of the U.S.-Canadian border, and so they obviously will be heavily impacted,» said Hale. «Most Americans don’t.»
Hale noted that while the tariffs will affect the entire U.S., the hardest-hit areas will be industries closely tied to Canadian imports, such as agriculture. The U.S., for instance, sources 90% of its potash fertilizer from Canada.
«This will have a disproportionate impact on border states,» Hale said, but he added that the economic strain on Canadian regions like Ontario will be far greater.
Canadian leaders have already voiced concern that as many as 160,000 jobs could be lost in Quebec, along with another 500,000 jobs in Ontario, depending on how long the tariff dispute lasts.
Both Quebec and Ontario are two of the provinces expected to be among those hardest hit in Canada as they rely heavily on their steel and aluminum and lumber and forestry sectors for exports.
A worker loads logs onto a truck at the Western Forest Products Ladysmith Log Sort in Ladysmith, British Columbia, Canada, on Feb. 18, 2025. Canada is the U.S.’ biggest foreign lumber supplier and has already been dealing with higher duties on its shipments that started last summer. (James MacDonald/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Canada could face a recession this year if it can’t rein in Trump’s tariff offensive, Oxford Economists first warned in a report last November.
Previous tariff wars between trading partners during the first Trump administration resulted in billions of dollars of losses for Americans and their foreign counterparts.
TRUMP HOLDS ‘EXTREMELY PRODUCTIVE CALL’ WITH CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER: ‘WE AGREE ON MANY THINGS’
But Trump is banking on the U.S. being less severely affected than nations like Canada.
The full impact of the tariff war with Canada remains uncertain as Washington has also imposed steep tariffs on the European Union, China and Mexico. Trump has pledged to target the «Dirty 15,» which are countries he accuses of contributing most to the U.S. trade deficit.
Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam are expected to be among those next targeted in Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, which he has dubbed «liberation day.»
Details on what Trump’s next steps in his tariff war with Canada and dozens of other nations remain unknown ahead of the April 2 deadline, which has created a sense of uncertainty, Hale said.
«Last week’s Bureau of Economic Analysis Reports signaled a continued high core personal consumption expenditure PC inflation at 2.8%. So inflation, one could argue, is not coming down, and certainly price levels continue to rise,» he said. «Consumer spending has slowed sharply in both Canada and the United States.»
President Donald Trump delivers remarks after signing an executive order on reciprocal tariffs in the Oval Office on Feb. 13, 2025. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
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«Businesses want certainty. They can’t make future investment decisions in this climate,» he added, noting that while a recession could be on the horizon in Canada, there are too many variables to make a prediction on the U.S. at this time.
«What I do know is that businesses and banks, people who are investing in projects, want to be able to plan,» Hale said. «Hopefully, we’ll have a clear idea [on Tuesday] where this is all going to land, and then we can work with it.»
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UN delegates walk out of Netanyahu address after cheering Palestinian leader day before
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Delegates at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) stormed out Friday as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the stage and prepared to speak. The mass exit came after delegates spent days speaking about the situation in Gaza and proposals to end the nearly two-year war.
Their response to Netanyahu was a stark contrast to the long round of applause that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas received when he addressed the international body virtually on Thursday.
ISRAEL CALLS UN PUSH FOR PALESTINE STATEHOOD A ‘CHARADE,’ WARNS OF ‘CONSEQUENCES’ FOR RECOGNITION MOVES
Delegations walk out as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at U.N. headquarters in New York City, Sept. 26, 2025. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)
On Friday, as Netanyahu began his address, he was speaking to a nearly empty hall. It is unclear exactly which delegations stayed in the chamber, though U.S. delegates were present.
While he did not have the attention of all the U.N. delegates, Netanyahu revealed in his speech that he was addressing a much wider audience. Netanyahu revealed that his speech was played on speakers surrounding the Gaza Strip and that it was being streamed to Gazans’ cell phones.
Empty seats as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at U.N. headquarters in New York City, Sept. 26, 2025. (Caitlin Ochs/Reuters)
UK, CANADA, AUSTRALIA RECOGNIZE PALESTINIAN STATE; NETANYAHU VOWS ‘IT WILL NOT HAPPEN’
The prime minister revealed the wide reach of his address after giving the hostages a message in Hebrew and in English.
«Our brave heroes, this is Prime Minister Netanyahu speaking to you live from the United Nations,» he began. «We have not forgotten you, not even for a second. The people of Israel are with you. We will not falter, and we will not rest until we bring all of you home.»
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at U.N. headquarters in New York City, Sept. 26, 2025. (Jeenah Moon/Reuters)
NETANYAHU EXPANDS SCOPE OF PLANNED GAZA TAKEOVER, SAYS ISRAEL HAS ‘NO CHOICE BUT TO FINISH THE JOB’
Netanyahu then turned his message to those holding the hostages in Gaza, including the leaders of Hamas, who could presumably hear his speech. He demanded the release of the 48 remaining hostages and gave an additional warning.
«Free the hostages now! If you do, you will live. If you don’t, Israel will hunt you down,» he said.
When Abbas spoke on Thursday, he slammed Israel’s «genocide» in Gaza, insisted his party is ready to take over the security and governance of the enclave and appealed to President Donald Trump for peace. He also demanded «full membership in the United Nations,» given that several European nations recognized a Palestinian state over the course of the UNGA.
PA President Mahmoud Abbas addressed UNGA virtually due to his visa being denied by the U.S. (David Dee Delgado/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
UN GIVES LONG ROUND OF APPLAUSE AFTER PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY PRESIDENT ACCUSES ISRAEL OF ‘GENOCIDE’
«Palestine is ours. Jerusalem is the jewel of our hearts and our eternal capital. We will not leave our homeland. We will not leave our lands,» Abbas declared.
Abbas may have had a bigger audience in the hall than Netanyahu, but he was unable to see it in person after the State Department refused to approve his visa to travel to New York for the conference, citing support of terrorism.
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This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
Fox News Digital’s Morgan Phillips contributed to this report.
united nations,benjamin netanyahu,israel,middle east,world
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Lawmakers push Congress to condemn ‘escalation of attacks’ on ICE officers after Dallas shooting
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FIRST ON FOX: A group of lawmakers is urging Congress to formally condemn «violent attacks» against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as threats against federal facilities escalate.
It comes days after a shooter opened fire on an ICE facility in Dallas, killing one detainee and injuring two others before turning the gun on himself. Federal authorities have called it a targeted attack.
The resolution is being led by Rep. Russell Fry, R-S.C., Republican Study Committee Chair August Pfluger, R-Texas, and House Small Business Committee Chair Roger Williams, R-Texas.
«Since President Trump took office, there has been a rise in hostile rhetoric and violence directed against ICE facilities and officers,» their resolution said.
DALLAS ICE GUNMAN’S HANDWRITTEN NOTE THREATENED ‘REAL TERROR,’ FBI REVEALS
Authorities revealed Joshua Jahn as the suspect who allegedly opened fire at a Dallas ICE facility on Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025. (Jeffrey McWhorter/Reuters;Fox News)
It noted the most recent shooting, including officials’ report that one of the bullet casings was inscribed with «ANTI-ICE» on it, and it listed seven other incidents or threats aimed at ICE facilities and offices that have occurred since June.
The resolution said «these acts reflect an escalation of attacks against ICE and federal immigration enforcement operations, including a 1,000 percent increase in assaults on ICE officers.»
It also lauded ICE’s efforts under the Trump administration while warning that «violent, ideologically motivated attacks on ICE not only endanger life, but undermine public trust in the rule of law and impair the capacity of ICE to carry out lawful missions.»
The resolution is largely symbolic and would be an expression of solidarity with ICE if passed by the House.
The recent Dallas ICE facility shooting has seen bipartisan condemnation, but such a measure could divide Democrats with its praise of the Trump administration’s efforts. Democrats have criticized what they have seen as overly harsh tactics in pursuit of President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration.
FBI Director Kash Patel said investigators recovered these rounds from the scene in Dallas where a gunman opened fire on the local ICE field office on Sept. 24, 2025. (FBI)
House Democratic leaders released a joint statement after the shooting that read, in part, «No one in America should be violently targeted, including our men and women in law enforcement who protect and serve our neighborhoods, and the immigrants who are too often the victims of dehumanizing rhetoric.»
Fry, who led the resolution, told Fox News Digital, «It is unacceptable that ICE officers are being targeted for upholding the laws of this country. Congress must send a clear and unmistakable message: violent attacks will not be tolerated, reckless rhetoric will not be excused, and we will stand firmly with those who protect us every day.»
MANGIONE, CATHOLIC CHURCH SHOOTER, CHARLIE KIRK SHOOTER, ICE SHOOTER ALL USED ENGRAVED BULLETS
Pfluger, who leads a 189-member group that acts as a de facto think tank for the House GOP, ripped the left but praised ICE.
«Radical leftists would rather see the criminal illegal aliens that the Biden administration let in our country continue to wreak havoc in our communities than support the brave men and women who put their lives on the line every single day to uphold our laws and defend American citizens,» he said.
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Williams told Fox News Digital, «The heinous targeted attacks on our ICE facilities and officers are unacceptable and must never be tolerated. These men and women put their lives on the line every day to uphold the rule of law, protect our borders, and keep American families safe.»
In a statement posted on X this week, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem blamed «toxic anti-ICE rhetoric from sanctuary politicians and radical activists» for the rise in threats against immigration authorities.
It comes amid an increase in high-profile political violence seen over the last year.
house of representatives politics,politics,immigration,dallas shooting
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