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Canada stares down consequences of Trump tariff war: Job losses, grocery price hikes, possible recession
Canada is bracing for the fallout of President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war, with economists warning of spiking grocery prices, major job losses and even a potential recession if threatened U.S. tariffs take effect.
The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly two-thirds of Canadian imports and receiving over 70% of its exports. But under Trump’s new «liberation day» tariffs – 25% on Canadian goods and 10% on energy – Ottawa now faces an economic gut punch that could ripple across key provinces, industries and its national election campaign.
Trump has repeatedly blasted what he calls «unfair» trade practices, citing Canada’s trade imbalance with the U.S. to justify the sweeping tariffs.
«This is the beginning of liberation day in America,» Trump said last week. «We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe.»
TRUMP’S 11TH WEEK IN OFFICE SET TO FOCUS ON TARIFFS AS PRESIDENT TOUTS ‘LIBERATION DAY’
Canadians protest U.S. tariffs and other policies of President Donald Trump in Toronto on March 22, 2025. (REUTERS/Carlos Osorio)
Increased tariffs could mean that Americans will see higher price tags on everything ranging from fertilizer and oil, vehicles and machinery, to plastic and wood products, which, theoretically, would deter consumers from purchasing those products and result in a loss for Canada’s economy.
Likewise, Canada in mid-March implemented reciprocal tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, which means Canadians will not only feel losses on a macro scale but also in an immediate sense as prices at the grocery store have spiked on things like leafy greens, citrus, orange juice, beef, pork and fish.
Ottawa has yet to announce any tariffs on U.S. imported vehicles due to reported concerns over how it could further hinder Canada’s economy. Though there are some $95 billion worth of U.S. goods that it is reportedly considering putting tariffs on, depending on Trump’s April 2 announcements, according to Canadian outlet Financial Post.
«They’re in the midst of a general election campaign,» Andrew Hale, a senior policy analyst in trade policy with the Heritage Foundation, told Fox News Digital. «I think it’s very difficult for them to negotiate and put these measures on during an election campaign.
«Everything they do and say now carries electoral weight,» he added, noting that Canadian politicians will need to strike a careful balance: tough enough on Trump to appeal to voters but measured enough to leave room for future negotiations on tariffs.
«If they were to put on reciprocal tariffs, it would damage the Canadian standard of living and have an impact – as all this already is having an impact – in Canada,» Hale said, noting that auto tariffs not only affect direct car sales but all businesses that rely on vehicles, creating a trickle-down effect.
CANADIANS CLAIM THEY ARE CANCELING TRIPS TO US FOR REMAINDER OF TRUMP TERM
Canadian Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to supporters during a rally in Montreal on March 27, 2025. A federal election has been called, and Canadian voters go to the polls on April 28. (Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images)
While Trump has argued that his tariffs protect U.S. manufacturing – especially the auto sector – the fallout could be far more severe for Canada. Immigration Minister Marc Miller has warned that up to 1 million Canadian jobs are at risk.
«Most Canadians live within 100 miles of the U.S.-Canadian border, and so they obviously will be heavily impacted,» said Hale. «Most Americans don’t.»
Hale noted that while the tariffs will affect the entire U.S., the hardest-hit areas will be industries closely tied to Canadian imports, such as agriculture. The U.S., for instance, sources 90% of its potash fertilizer from Canada.
«This will have a disproportionate impact on border states,» Hale said, but he added that the economic strain on Canadian regions like Ontario will be far greater.
Canadian leaders have already voiced concern that as many as 160,000 jobs could be lost in Quebec, along with another 500,000 jobs in Ontario, depending on how long the tariff dispute lasts.
Both Quebec and Ontario are two of the provinces expected to be among those hardest hit in Canada as they rely heavily on their steel and aluminum and lumber and forestry sectors for exports.
A worker loads logs onto a truck at the Western Forest Products Ladysmith Log Sort in Ladysmith, British Columbia, Canada, on Feb. 18, 2025. Canada is the U.S.’ biggest foreign lumber supplier and has already been dealing with higher duties on its shipments that started last summer. (James MacDonald/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Canada could face a recession this year if it can’t rein in Trump’s tariff offensive, Oxford Economists first warned in a report last November.
Previous tariff wars between trading partners during the first Trump administration resulted in billions of dollars of losses for Americans and their foreign counterparts.
TRUMP HOLDS ‘EXTREMELY PRODUCTIVE CALL’ WITH CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER: ‘WE AGREE ON MANY THINGS’
But Trump is banking on the U.S. being less severely affected than nations like Canada.
The full impact of the tariff war with Canada remains uncertain as Washington has also imposed steep tariffs on the European Union, China and Mexico. Trump has pledged to target the «Dirty 15,» which are countries he accuses of contributing most to the U.S. trade deficit.
Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam are expected to be among those next targeted in Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, which he has dubbed «liberation day.»
Details on what Trump’s next steps in his tariff war with Canada and dozens of other nations remain unknown ahead of the April 2 deadline, which has created a sense of uncertainty, Hale said.
«Last week’s Bureau of Economic Analysis Reports signaled a continued high core personal consumption expenditure PC inflation at 2.8%. So inflation, one could argue, is not coming down, and certainly price levels continue to rise,» he said. «Consumer spending has slowed sharply in both Canada and the United States.»
President Donald Trump delivers remarks after signing an executive order on reciprocal tariffs in the Oval Office on Feb. 13, 2025. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
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«Businesses want certainty. They can’t make future investment decisions in this climate,» he added, noting that while a recession could be on the horizon in Canada, there are too many variables to make a prediction on the U.S. at this time.
«What I do know is that businesses and banks, people who are investing in projects, want to be able to plan,» Hale said. «Hopefully, we’ll have a clear idea [on Tuesday] where this is all going to land, and then we can work with it.»
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Several North Carolina Democrats who criticized or opposed federal immigration authorities in Charlotte were largely silent when asked about the dozens of criminals arrested during the operation.
U.S. Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino – who hails from Watauga County and attended Appalachian State University in Boone – returned to familiar soil and was seen on-the-ground in Charlotte after weeks in Chicago.
By Monday, the Department of Homeland Security recorded 130 arrests of illegal immigrants, including at least 44 with violent criminal records ranging from aggravated assault to known gang activity, in its latest «worst of the worst» cache.
CHARLOTTE PROMISES TO RESIST PENDING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION RAIDS: ‘CAMPAIGN OF TERROR’
DHS Agents in Charlotte, North Carolina on a mission. (Ryan Murphy/Getty Images)
One of the more pointed reactions to the raids came from North Carolina state Rep. Aisha Dew, D-Charlotte, who said Friday that «we do not need to have Border Patrol [here].»
«As I’ve already said, I’m not quite sure what border we’re patrolling here,» Dew said at a press conference, while adding that the surrounding states – South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia – don’t pose any threats to the Old North State.
«[Charlotte] is a safe city. Our crime rates have gone down since the previous year. This is just another something out of the playbook,» Dew said.
Dew did not respond to a request for comment after the «worst of the worst» list came out.
TRUMP IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT FOCUS TO EXPAND TO NEW CITY, MAYOR INDICATES
Rep. Alma Adams, D-N.C., who represents most of Mecklenburg County and Charlotte, also slammed DHS’ operations on Thursday and pledged to stand up to «intimidation» of her district’s immigrant community.
«I am extremely concerned about the deployment of U.S. Border Patrol and ICE agents to Charlotte,» Adams said in a statement.
«Charlotte’s immigrant community is a proud part of the Queen City, and I will not stand by and watch my constituents be intimidated or harassed,» she added, accusing ICE of using excessive force in prior raids in Los Angeles and Chicago, and threatening the well-being of communities they visit.
«Those tactics and values have no place in the City of Charlotte or Mecklenburg County,» Adams said.
An Adams staffer answered the phone at her Washington office, but her office did not respond to an ensuing emailed inquiry.
PROTESTERS SCREAM ‘GET THE F— OUT OF MY CITY!’ AT FEDERAL AGENTS DURING IMMIGRATION RAID
USBP Cmdr. Gregory K. Bovino drives agents around Charlotte. (Ryan Murphy/Getty Images)
Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles was also apprehensive of ICE’s arrival, writing in a joint statement with Mecklenburg County Chairman Mark Jerrell and Charlotte-Mecklenburg School Board President Stephanie Sneed that they hope not to see the same public violence as Los Angeles and elsewhere.
«The expected [DHS] operations are causing unnecessary fear and uncertainty in our community,» Lyles, Jerrell and Sneed said.
«Diversity makes us stronger. And with that belief, we are unwavering in our commitment to a safe and welcoming community where everyone can grow and thrive,» they added while saying it is important for residents to understand their rights and be aware of various organizations who may be able to help with «legal guidance» on immigration matters.
Jerrell and Sneed did not respond to requests for comment after the «worst of the worst» announcement.
When reached for comment, a representative for Lyles pointed Fox News Digital to a separate Tuesday morning statement.
FEDERAL IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT SWEEPS CHARLOTTE MONTHS AFTER UKRAINIAN REFUGEE KILLING SHOCKED NATION
«First and foremost, the rights and constitutional protections of every person in Charlotte—regardless of immigration status—must be upheld,» Lyles said.
«Our city has a long-standing commitment to fairness, dignity, and justice. I am deeply concerned with many of the videos I’ve seen, and I urge all agencies operating here to conduct their work with respect for those values.»
«To everyone in Charlotte who is feeling anxious or fearful: you are not alone. Your city stands with you. We will continue working with community leaders, legal advocates, and service providers to make sure that resources, information, and support remain available.»
Lyles called on the city to meet the situation with «calm, compassion and a steadfast dedication to the rights and well-being of all who call Charlotte home.»
The state’s top Democrat, Gov. Josh Stein, offered a more balanced response than some in his party, like Dew.
CHARLOTTE RAID TARGETING CRIMINAL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS LEADS TO 130 ARRESTS, INCLUDING MS-13 GANG MEMBER
Stein said he is in regular contact with state and local law enforcement as the raids continue, and encouraged residents to follow the law and peacefully «bear witness to what you have seen.»
«To the CBP — if you know we have violent criminals in Charlotte who are undocumented, we want them out, too,» Stein said.
«Everyone wants to be safe in their homes, but the actions of too many federal agents are doing the opposite,» he claimed.
Stein claimed some ICE agents are targeting residents based on skin color and said in one case a landscaper decorating a resident’s Christmas tree was detained.
He said the federal immigration system is broken and blamed Congress for playing politics.
Stein said he supports «strong borders» but also a pathway to citizenship for DREAMers.
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«Governor Stein believes that government’s top priority must be keeping people safe. He has long supported efforts to hold accountable and deport violent criminals and drug dealers,» a spokesperson told Fox News Digital.
«The governor continues to urge CBP to target people based on the level of threat they pose, not their skin color.»
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Gunmen kidnapped 25 girls from a boarding school in Nigeria’s Kebbi State and killed at least one staffer, authorities said Monday.
The schoolgirls were taken around 4 a.m., and no group immediately claimed responsibility for the incident.
Police spokesperson Nafi’u Abubakar Kotarkoshi told The Associated Press the gunmen had «sophisticated weapons» and exchanged fire with guards before abducting the girls.
«A combined team is currently combing suspected escape routes and surrounding forests in a coordinated search and rescue operation aimed at recovering the abducted students and arresting the perpetrators,» he said, adding that one person was killed and another was injured.
NIGERIAN FILM RAISES AWARENESS ABOUT DOZENS OF GIRLS ABDUCTED FROM SCHOOL IN 2014
A woman looks on as she walks past a classroom in Shehu Kangiwa Model Primary School in Argungu, Kebbi State, in northern Nigeria on April 12, 2025. (Leslie Fauvel/AFP via Getty Images)
«Our security agencies are treating this as a kidnapping carried out by organized criminal groups that operate for profit. Whether they have any ideological ties is still under investigation, and we do not want to fuel speculation while the facts are being verified,» Nigerian Information Minister Mohamed Idris told Fox News Digital.
«This is not about religion Muslim or Christian. These criminals attack anyone they believe is vulnerable. Our priority is the protection of all Nigerian children, and we remain fully committed to dismantling these networks and holding every perpetrator accountable.»
Abdulkarim Abdullahi Maga, a resident who said his daughter and granddaughter were abducted in the raid, told the AP that the attackers entered the school with motorcycles.
AMERICAN MISSIONARY KIDNAPPED IN NIGER BY SUSPECTED ISLAMIST MILITANTS, SOURCES SAY
«They first went straight to the teacher’s house and killed him before killing the guard,» said Maga.
Idris told Fox News Digital that the government is working to ensure the girls are safely returned home and the perpetrators are brought to justice.
«The Federal Government expresses deep concern and solidarity with the families of the female students abducted from Government Girls Secondary School, Maga, in Danko/Wasagu Local Government Area of Kebbi State. We share in their pain and are firmly committed to bringing the girls home safely,» he said.
RAPPER NIKKI MINAJ AND UN AMBASSADOR JOIN VOICES AGAINST CHRISTIAN PERSECUTION IN NIGERIA
«President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has reiterated that the protection of every Nigerian especially schoolchildren remains a solemn responsibility of the State. The government condemns the reprehensible attack on innocent students and the killing of school officials who were carrying out their noble duty.»
FILE – The name of a student is written on a chair in a deserted classroom at the Government Girls Secondary School, the day after the abduction of over 300 schoolgirls by gunmen in Jangebe, a village in Zamfara State, northwest of Nigeria on Feb. 27, 2021. (Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images)
The latest abductions come amid a string of mass kidnappings in northern Nigeria in recent years.
In 2024, 280 students were abducted from a school in Kaduna State and at least 200 others, mostly internally displaced women and children, were abducted in Borno State while reportedly searching for firewood, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk.
More than 200 schoolgirls were kidnapped from a Chibok secondary school in 2014 by Boko Haram militants, sparking international outrage and a #BringBackOurGirls campaign.
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