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China’s global aggression check: Taiwan tensions, military posturing and US response in 2025
China, Russia condemn US pressure on Venezuela
Former CIA station chief Dan Hoffman joins ‘Fox News Live’ reacting to China and Russia’s public condemnation of U.S. military pressure against Venezuela as oil tanker blockades continue to impact their economies.
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As 2025 ends, tensions between China and Taiwan are higher — and more overt — than at any point in recent years, fueled by expanded U.S. military support for Taipei, increasingly bold warnings from regional allies, and Chinese military drills that look less like symbolism and more like rehearsal.
Beijing has spent the year steadily increasing pressure on Taiwan through large-scale military exercises, air and naval incursions, and pointed political messaging, while Washington and its allies have responded with sharper deterrence signals that China now openly labels as interference.
The result is a more volatile status quo — one where the risk of miscalculation has grown, even as most analysts stop short of predicting an imminent Chinese invasion.
A year of escalating pressure
China capped off 2025 with what it described as its largest Taiwan-focused military exercises to date, launching expansive drills in December that included live-fire elements and simulated island encirclement operations.
As 2025 draws to a close, tensions between China and Taiwan are higher — and more overt — than at any point in recent years. (Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The exercises followed a familiar pattern seen throughout the year: People’s Liberation Army aircraft and ships operating closer to Taiwan with greater frequency, reinforcing Beijing’s claim of sovereignty while testing Taipei’s response capacity.
Unlike earlier shows of force, the late-year drills were widely interpreted as practice for coercive scenarios short of outright war — particularly a blockade or quarantine designed to strangle Taiwan economically and politically without triggering immediate global conflict.
Chinese officials explicitly tied the escalation to Washington’s actions, pointing to a massive U.S. arms package approved in December — valued at roughly $11 billion and described as one of the largest such sales to Taiwan in years — as proof of what Beijing calls «foreign interference.»
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Chinese officials have been unusually blunt in their response.
«Any external forces that attempt to intervene in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China’s internal affairs will surely smash their heads bloody against the iron walls of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,» China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a Monday statement.
The arms package continued the U.S. push to strengthen Taiwan’s asymmetric defenses, including missiles, drones and systems designed to complicate a Chinese assault rather than match Beijing weapon-for-weapon.
Taipei welcomed the support but remained cautious in its public response, emphasizing restraint while warning that Chinese military pressure has become routine rather than exceptional.
Japan steps into the frame
One of the most consequential shifts in 2025 came not from Washington or Taipei, Taiwan, but from Tokyo.
In November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made unusually direct remarks linking a potential Taiwan contingency to Japan’s own security, suggesting that an attack on Taiwan could trigger collective self-defense considerations under Japanese law.
China shows off DF-5C intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles are showcased at a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing. (China Daily via Reuters)
The comments marked one of the clearest acknowledgments yet from a sitting Japanese leader that a Taiwan conflict would not remain a bilateral issue between Beijing and Taipei.
China reacted angrily, accusing Japan of abandoning its post-war restraint and aligning itself with U.S. efforts to contain Beijing. The rhetoric underscored a growing Chinese concern: that any move on Taiwan would draw in a widening coalition of U.S. allies.
That concern has also been reinforced by U.S. treaty commitments to the Philippines, where Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed repeatedly in the South China Sea throughout the year, raising fears of a multifront crisis.
Washington’s deterrence gamble
For the United States, 2025 was defined by a balancing act — reinforcing Taiwan without triggering the very conflict Washington seeks to prevent.
In addition to the December arms package, U.S. officials repeatedly reaffirmed that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are vital U.S. interests, while avoiding any explicit shift away from long-standing strategic ambiguity.
The Pentagon’s annual report on China, released late in 2025, reiterated that U.S. defense assessments see the Chinese military developing capabilities that could enable it to fight and win a war over Taiwan by 2027 — a benchmark that has increasingly shaped U.S. and allied planning.
U.S. officials, however, have also cautioned that military readiness does not equal intent, warning against treating exercises or procurement timelines as a countdown clock to war.
Is an invasion coming?
The question hanging over the region — and Washington — is whether China is moving closer to launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
The evidence cuts both ways.
On one hand, the scale and sophistication of Chinese military activity around Taiwan has grown noticeably, with drills emphasizing joint operations, rapid mobilization and isolation of the island. Beijing’s rhetoric has also hardened, portraying reunification as increasingly urgent and framing U.S. involvement as an existential threat.
On the other hand, an amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be among the most complex military operations in modern history, carrying enormous political, economic and military risks for China — whose armed forces have not fought a major war since its 1979 invasion of Vietnam.
China’s type 055 guided-missile destroyer Nanchang sails during a naval exercise. (Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty Images)
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Many defense analysts argue that Beijing has strong incentives to continue applying pressure through gray-zone tactics — cyber operations, economic coercion, legal warfare and military intimidation — rather than crossing the threshold into open war.
The December drills reinforced that view, highlighting blockade-style scenarios that could test Taiwan and its partners without immediately triggering a shooting war.
The road ahead
As 2026 approaches, the Taiwan Strait remains a flashpoint where deterrence and coercion are colliding more frequently and more visibly.
The most widely held assessment among U.S. and regional officials is that while the risk of conflict is rising — particularly as China approaches its 2027 military readiness goals — an invasion is not yet the most likely near-term outcome.
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Instead, the danger lies in sustained pressure, miscalculation and crisis escalation, especially as more actors — from Japan to the Philippines — become directly implicated in the Taiwan equation.
For now, 2025 ends with no shots fired across the Taiwan Strait — but with fewer illusions about how close the region may be to its most serious test in decades.
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Protests in Iran entered a fifth consecutive day on Thursday, with demonstrations and clashes reported across Tehran and multiple provincial cities as authorities, state-linked media and rights groups cited additional deaths overnight.
According to Reuters, several people have been killed since the unrest escalated, based on reports from Iranian media and human rights groups. Iranian authorities have confirmed at least one death, while other fatalities have been reported in different provinces.
Opposition group National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) told Fox News Digital in a statement that protests and street clashes continued Thursday morning in Tehran and in cities including Marvdasht, Kermanshah, Delfan and Arak, and claimed that two protesters were killed by direct fire in Lordegan. Fox News Digital could not independently verify the deaths.
ANTI-IRAN REGIME PROTESTS GROW ACROSS COUNTRY AS TRUMP ADMIN BOOSTS DEMONSTRATORS OFFERING SUPPORT
Protesters push back security forces in Tehran on Dec 30, 2025. (NCRI)
The protests began on Sunday after shopkeepers and merchants demonstrated against soaring inflation, unemployment and the sharp depreciation of Iran’s currency. The unrest quickly spread beyond bazaars to include students and wider public demonstrations in cities across the country.
In Lordegan, in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, clashes intensified overnight. Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported that crowds threw stones at government buildings, including the governor’s office, the judiciary, the Martyrs Foundation, the Friday prayer complex and several banks. Police used tear gas to disperse protesters, and multiple buildings were heavily damaged. Fars said two people were killed during the clashes, without specifying whether they were protesters or security personnel.
The Kurdish rights group Hengaw reported that protesters in Lordegan were killed by security forces. In Kuhdasht, authorities said a member of the Basij volunteer paramilitary force was killed, and 13 others wounded during clashes, blaming demonstrators. Hengaw disputed that account, telling Reuters that the individual was a protester killed by security forces. Reuters said it could not confirm either version.
Iran protests force nationwide shutdown as President Masoud Pezeshkian closes businesses and offices across 21 provinces amid mounting public anger. (MEK/ People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran)
Separately, Iran International reported that a 37-year-old man was shot dead in Fooladshahr, in Isfahan province, during overnight protests. Iran International said it verified the man’s identity and reviewed video footage, while provincial police confirmed the death of a 37-year-old citizen without providing further details.
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Six women who were detained during protests in Tehran have been transferred to the women’s ward of Evin prison, U.S.-based rights group Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said.
President Donald Trump and other administration officials voiced support for the demonstrators this week. Speaking Monday, Trump pointed to Iran’s economic collapse and long-standing public discontent, while stopping short of explicitly calling for regime change.
Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, issued a statement on the continuing protests, noting: «The four-day uprising by merchants, students, and other sectors of society signals the Iranian people’s determination to be free from religious tyranny. This wretched regime is doomed to be overthrown by the risen populace and rebellious youth. The final word is spoken in the streets by the people and the rebellious youth, those with nothing left to lose. This regime must go.»
The last major protests seen in Iran followed the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police, in Tehran, Oct. 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Middle East Images, File)
The unrest comes as Iran’s economy remains under severe strain from years of international sanctions, high inflation and currency depreciation. Authorities declared a nationwide shutdown on Wednesday, officially citing extreme cold weather, and said the government offered to hold talks with representatives of merchants and trade unions over what it described as «legitimate demands.»
Another influential dissident leader, the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the late Shah of Iran, took to X and appealed to the international community «to stand with the people of Iran.» He continued in part, «The current regime has reached the end of the road. It stands at its most fragile: weak, deeply divided, and unable to suppress the courage of a rising nation. The growing protests show this year will be the definitive moment for change.»
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Iran has faced repeated waves of unrest over the past decade. While nationwide protests in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini centered on women’s rights and state repression, the current demonstrations are rooted primarily in economic grievances, with protesters in several cities now openly directing their anger at Iran’s political leadership.
Reuters contributed to this report.
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INTERNACIONAL
Qué se sabe del incendio en un bar de esquí suizo que dejó decenas de muertos en Año Nuevo
Los investigadores suizos están investigando las causas del incendio en un bar de una estación de esquí alpina que dejó dejó 40 personas muertas y 115 heridas, la mayoría de ellas graves, según confirmó la policía, durante la celebración de Año Nuevo.
La mayoría de las lesiones, muchas de ellas graves, se produjeron cuando el fuego arrasó el abarrotado bar menos de dos horas después de la medianoche del jueves en el suroeste de Suiza.
La estación de Crans-Montana es conocida por ser un destino internacional de esquí y golf. Durante la noche, su abarrotado bar Le Constellation pasó de ser un lugar de juerga a convertirse en el escenario de lo que podría ser una de las peores tragedias de Suiza.
Crans-Montana se encuentra a menos de 5 kilómetros de Sierre, Suiza, donde 28 personas, entre ellas muchos niños, murieron cuando un autobús procedente de Bélgica se estrelló dentro de un túnel suizo en 2012.
Esto es lo que sabemos sobre el mortal incendio:
El incendio se produjo alrededor de la 1:30 de la madrugada del jueves en el interior del bar Le Constellation, en plena celebración navideña.
Axel Clavier, un joven de 16 años de París, sobrevivió al incendio utilizando una mesa para empujar una ventana de plexiglás fuera de su marco, lo que le permitió escapar del “caos total” que se había formado dentro del bar. Uno de sus amigos murió y “dos o tres desaparecieron”, declaró a The Associated Press.
Dijo que no había visto cómo se iniciaba el incendio, pero que sí vio llegar a las camareras con botellas de champán con bengalas, según contó.
Dos mujeres dijeron a la cadena francesa BFMTV que estaban dentro cuando vieron a un camarero levantar a una camarera sobre sus hombros mientras ella sostenía una vela encendida en una botella. Las llamas se propagaron y derrumbaron el techo de madera, dijeron a la cadena.
La gente intentó escapar frenéticamente del club nocturno del sótano por una estrecha escalera y a través de una puerta estrecha, lo que provocó una avalancha humana, dijo una de las mujeres.
Un joven que se encontraba en el lugar dijo que la gente rompió las ventanas para escapar del fuego, algunos con heridas graves, informó BFMTV. Dijo que vio a unas 20 personas luchando por salir del humo y las llamas, y comparó lo sucedido con una película de terror.
Los heridos eran tan numerosos que la unidad de cuidados intensivos y el quirófano del hospital regional se llenaron rápidamente, dijo Mathias Reynard, jefe del gobierno regional del cantón de Valais.
Aunque las autoridades dijeron el jueves que era demasiado pronto para determinar la causa del incendio, los investigadores ya han descartado que pudiera tratarse de un ataque.
Los expertos aún no han podido entrar en los escombros, según declaró Beatrice Pilloud, fiscal general del cantón de Valais, en una rueda de prensa.
Se está trabajando para identificar a las víctimas e informar a sus familias.
Se teme que haya “varias decenas de personas” fallecidas, añadió Gisler.
Las autoridades suizas calificaron el incendio como un “embrasement généralisé”, un término francés utilizado por los bomberos para describir cómo un incendio puede provocar la liberación de gases combustibles que luego pueden inflamarse violentamente y causar lo que los bomberos denominan una combustión instantánea o un retorno de llama.
Las víctimas sufrieron quemaduras graves e inhalación de humo. Algunas fueron trasladadas en avión a hospitales especializados de todo el país.
Las autoridades instaron a la población a actuar con precaución en los próximos días para evitar cualquier accidente que pudiera requerir los ya desbordados recursos médicos.
Con pistas de esquí de gran altitud que se elevan a unos 3.000 metros en el corazón de los picos nevados y los bosques de pinos de la región de Valais, Crans-Montana es una de las mejores sedes del circuito de la Copa del Mundo.
La estación acogerá a los mejores esquiadores de descenso masculino y femenino, entre ellos Lindsey Vonn, para sus últimas pruebas antes de los Juegos Olímpicos de Milán-Cortina en febrero.
El club de golf Crans-sur-Sierre, situado en la misma calle que el bar, acoge cada agosto el European Masters en un pintoresco campo.
(Con información de AP)
Accidents,Disasters,Natural Catastrophes,Disasters / Accidents,Europe
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