Pakistan is walking a tightrope as the Iran war intensifies, with that balance growing more precarious with each passing day.

Islamabad has so far pursued cautious diplomacy, condemning the strikes on Iran, while simultaneously urging de-escalation. But analysts warn it cannot remain insulated from competing pressures.

«Pakistan is putting itself forward as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran, but unconvincingly,» Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Fox News Digital. «Its own record of staying out of military entanglements is unimpressive.»

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At the forefront of the tensions is a new defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, which states that aggression against one will be treated as a threat to both. Widely seen as one of Pakistan’s most consequential defense agreements, it commits the country to Riyadh, while risking confrontation with Iran.

Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim state, already has troops stationed in Saudi Arabia for training and defense support and has said there is «no question» of coming to the kingdom’s aid.

«Remember, Pakistan is geographically part of both South Asia and Central Asia, as well as the wider Gulf/MENA region too. Pakistan has always pursued peace, dialogue and order because we know what war does to our region,» Mosharraf Zaidi, spokesperson for foreign media to the Pakistani prime minister, told Fox News Digital.

Within days of the war’s outbreak, the country’s army chief, General Asim Munir, made an «emergency» visit to Saudi Arabia, where top officials discussed joint responses to Iranian strikes. It was the first true test of the pact.

Relations are strong between the two nations, and Riyadh remains a key economic lifeline for Islamabad. Saudi Arabia has already been making arrangements to support energy supplies, as war-driven fuel disruptions hit import-dependent Pakistan.

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Yet Pakistan’s relationship with Iran is equally critical. 

The two share a 565-mile border along with deep trade ties and significant religious connections. 

Pakistan is home to the world’s second-largest Shiite community after Iran. Pro-Iran regime protests in the wake of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination turned deadly, forcing military intervention and curfews.

Maintaining ties with Tehran is crucial for containing domestic tensions and staving off an insurgency from the minority Baloch community there.

Iran is also an important economic partner to Pakistan, which has been facing a severe economic crisis. The two conduct significant trade, with a new goal of $10 billion by 2028.

Pakistan’s foreign minister has held «constant conversations» with his Iranian counterpart throughout the conflict. And last week, a Pakistani oil tanker transited the essentially blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted it was the first non-Iranian cargo ship to do so since tensions escalated, suggesting that safe passage may have been negotiated. Officials add that more Pakistan-bound oil tankers are likely to cross the strait in the coming days.

A screenshot of a marine traffic terminal showing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, 2026. (Kpler/Marine Traffic)

Most of Pakistan’s crude and LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But as the war grinds on, analysts warn Pakistan’s room for neutrality is shrinking. 

Pakistan recently went against Iran, backing a Gulf-led resolution at the United Nations condemning regional aggression. Russia and China abstained.

Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister just called for regional coordination in separate ​calls with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt.

Shia Muslims holding portraits of Iran’s slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei take part in an anti US-Israel protest in Islamabad on March 6, 2026.  (Aamir Qureshi/ AFP via Getty Images)

At the same time, Islamabad must also navigate relations with Washington, yet another key partner.

Under President Donald Trump’s second term, Pakistan has sought closer relations with the U.S., even floating his name for the Nobel Peace Prize.

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Questions are also emerging in Washington. During a White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was coordinating with the Pentagon to assess whether Pakistan is supporting Iran, while describing India as a «good actor.»

India’s positioning has added further pressure, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Israel.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu in New Delhi, India on Feb. 25, 2026. (Photo by Press Information Bureau (PIB)/Anadolu via Getty Images)

«There is no contradiction in being absolutely committed to peace, dialogue and order. The strong relationships Pakistan has with the United States, with Saudi Arabia, with Iran and with China are a testament to Pakistan’s commitment,» the Pakistani prime minister’s spokesperson, Zaidi said.

So far, Pakistan has effectively positioned itself at the forefront of mediation efforts to end the ongoing conflict, leveraging its ties with all three powerhouses.

Reports indicate that high-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are set for Islamabad as early as this weekend.

«Pakistan wants to matter to the U.S. and to be a better partner than India. Because the Afghan Taliban have alienated Islamabad since 2021, there are few remaining sore points between the U.S. and Pakistan, with the latter able to present as an ally against terrorism,» Fitton-Brown said. «And most regional parties want to see the crisis end sooner rather than later. But nobody wants to see the Islamic Republic strengthened in Iran.»

The spiraling war comes at a critical time for Pakistan’s already stretched military. Tensions with India remain elevated, while border clashes, airstrikes, drone attacks and rising civilian casualties have become the norm with once friendly neighbor Afghanistan.

The nations nosedived into an «all-out war,» just days before the Iran conflict broke out, and the violence shows no signs of easing after fresh Pakistani strikes recently hit the Afghan capital city of Kabul.

Afghan Taliban fighters patrol near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in Spin Boldak, Kandahar Province, following exchanges of fire between Pakistani and Afghan forces. (REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo)

«This geography and the region’s history is why Pakistan steadfastly rejects India’s efforts at regional hegemony, it is why Pakistan is pursuing a termination of the Afghan Taliban regime’s support for terrorist groups,» Zaidi said. «We seek a complete cessation of terrorism emanating from territory currently controlled by the Afghan Taliban.»

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With Pakistan already managing tensions on both its eastern border with India and its western frontier with Afghanistan, a destabilized Iran could push that strain further.

«If Islamabad is destabilized, it will be extremely bad news regionally and globally,» Edmund Fitton-Brown told Fox. «The idea of a nuclear power under jihadi rule doesn’t bear thinking about.»

Donald Trump se dio cinco días para terminar la guerra en Medio Oriente, normalizar el precio del petróleo y declarar una victoria militar que calme las aguas de la interna republicana en un año electoral.

Pese al plazo, el conflicto sigue con nuevos ataques cruzados, en medio de anuncios y desmentidos de ambos bandos que ponen en duda cualquier posibilidad de arreglo.

El anunciado inicio de negociaciones con Irán hecho este lunes por un optimista Trump, después de amenazar con destruir la red eléctrica iraní, pareció más un llamado a la calma a los mercados que a una realidad palpable en el terreno.

Si ese era el objetivo, puede darse por satisfecho, al menos por ahora. El precio del crudo bajaba hoy un 10% y volvía a situarse por debajo de 100 dólares el barril.

“Esta pausa es el prolegómeno de la capitulación total del régimen chiita en una negociación directa y bilateral o la previa de un ataque total”, dijo a TN el analista Erick Fajardo, consultor en comunicación política y asesor del condado de Arlington (Virginia, Estados Unidos).

Los escenarios que se abren en Medio Oriente

El escenario es complejo. Mientras Trump anuncia negociaciones, un contingente de 4500 infantes de marina estadounidenses se dirige a Medio Oriente, incluyendo un batallón de infantería con el apoyo de helicópteros, cazas F-35 y vehículos blindados de desembarco, informó The Washington Post.

El Pentágono también aceleró el despliegue de la 11/a Unidad Expedicionaria de Marines, desde San Diego.

Este despliegue militar estadounidense indicaría un plan para “tomar el estrecho de Ormuz y la isla de Kharg (el principal centro de exportación de petróleo de Irán)”, dijo un funcionario israelí citado por el periódico.

Trump, de fracasar la vía diplomática, “necesita demostrar que el estrecho está abierto”, añadió. Por ahí pasa el 20% del transporte de crudo y gas natural del mundo.

Incluso, el Canal 12 de Israel aseguró que funcionarios de la Casa Blanca comunicaron a sus homólogos israelíes que la guerra se prolongará para dar tiempo a una operación estadounidense planificada para reabrir la vía marítima, que se espera que dure varias semanas.

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Trump sorprendió hoy al anunciar conversaciones directas con Irán y un consenso alcanzado en “puntos importantes de acuerdo”. “Hemos tenido conversaciones muy intensas. Veremos a dónde nos llevan”, dijo en el aeropuerto de Palm Beach, en Florida, donde pasó el fin de semana.

El presidente desparramó optimismo. Según afirmó, las conversaciones fueron “perfectas. Si siguen adelante, se acabará este problema, este conflicto”.

“La estrategia es´escalar para desescalar´, como dijo el secretario del Tesoro Scott Bessent», afirmó a TN el analista internacional Mauro Enbe.

Trump dijo que las negociaciones las llevan adelante sus enviados a la región, Steve Witkoff y Jared Kushner, con un político “respetado” de Irán, que no es el líder supremo, Mojtaba Jamenei. Además, dijo que podría haber una cumbre presencial “muy pronto”.

Pero Enbe duda del éxito de este diálogo. “Me pregunto si efectivamente los funcionarios con los que están hablando son escuchados y respetados por todo el arco político iraní, que incluye también a la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica”, dijo.

A su juicio, el riesgo es que el presidente estadounidense “arregle con algunas de las partes y otra parte dice ´no estamos de acuerdo´ y se abra una guerra civil. Trump busca una Delcy Rodríguez, pero no creo que aparezca“, agregó.

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Entre sus exigencias, Trump subrayó que cualquier acuerdo debe impedir que Irán pueda obtener un arma nuclear. No habló de cambio de régimen, el objetivo que busca Israel y que Washington abandonó después de la primera semana de conflicto, al menos en su retórica belicista.

Además, dijo que el estrecho de Ormuz “se abrirá pronto si esto funciona” y afirmó: “El paso será controlado conjuntamente. Tal vez yo. El próximo ayatollah y yo, quienquiera que sea”.

La réplica de Irán: “Noticias falsas” y más guerra

Desde Teherán la réplica llegó en forma de desmentida, aunque también hubo espacio para la ambigüedad. Además, lanzó una nueva ola de ataques a Israel.

El presidente del Parlamento iraní, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, negó un diálogo formal con Estados Unidos. “No se han llevado a cabo negociaciones con Estados Unidos, y las noticias falsas se utilizan para manipular los mercados financieros y petroleros y escapar del atolladero en el que se encuentran Estados Unidos e Israel», afirmó en un mensaje en X.

Pero la Cancillería admitió que el país recibió mensajes de Washington a través de “intermediarios”, aunque dijo que no hay negociaciones directas. Un escenario que recuerda a Cuba.

“En los últimos días se recibieron mensajes a través de algunos países amigos en los que se indicaba una solicitud de Estados Unidos para entablar negociaciones con el objetivo de poner fin a la guerra”, dijo el vocero del ministerio, Esmail Baqai, citado por la agencia oficial IRNA.

Incluso, la prensa oficial reafirmó que el estrecho de Ormuz seguirá cerrado. “No ha habido ni hay negociaciones en curso, y con este tipo de guerra psicológica ni el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a su situación previa al conflicto ni regresará la calma a los mercados energéticos”, afirmó una fuente oficial a la agencia Tasnim, vinculada a la Guardia Revolucionaria.

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“Irán tiene una doctrina estructurada en su método y teoría; algo para nada tan flexible en tiempos y márgenes de maniobra como la administración Trump. Irán va a tratar de ganar tiempo, esperando el desgaste de Trump. Penn Avenue (la icónica avenida de Washington que conecta la Casa Blanca con el Capitolio) va a reafirmar el branding de Trump: jugar con las cartas sobre la mesa”, dijo Fajardo.

Para Enbe, “van a ser cinco días para negociar y, mientras tanto, Trump va a amenazar con todo”.

“Va a tratar de vender esto como una victoria. Él es bastante hábil para vender victorias, al menos para su electorado. Este es un año difícil con las primarias y elecciones de medio término (previstas el 3 de noviembre) que le marcan el pulso” político interno, concluyó.

A top Virginia Democrat appeared to admit that state Democratic lawmakers’ effort to redraw the commonwealth’s congressional map is more about stopping President Donald Trump and his agenda than about ensuring fairness for voters in the Old Dominion.

A referendum drafted by Richmond’s Democratic majority and set to go before voters in April would allow the assembly to redraw Virginia’s congressional map in a way that Richmond Democrats signaled would draw out four of five Republican congressmen and draw the populations of most new districts from dense, left-wing Fairfax County.

In comments to NBC News, Rep. Donald Beyer, an Alexandria-Fairfax Democrat, appeared to admit redistricting’s true purpose while commenting on early voting figures that appeared to lean in the GOP’s favor.

Beyer said the redistricting effort is «not a done deal by any means» and that Democrats need to «effectively make the case that even though this seems unfair in Virginia, it’s totally fair for America, for those of us who believe that taking back the House is the most significant thing we can do to stop Donald Trump.»

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«Don said the quiet part out loud,» Virginia House Minority Leader Terry Kilgore, R-Gate City, told Fox News Digital on Monday.

«This is manifestly unfair for the Commonwealth of Virginia. We’re a 51-49 state, not a 90-10 state. If they’re willing to silence nearly half the Commonwealth’s voters in the name of ‘fairness,’ what else are they willing to do?» Kilgore said. His legislative seat in the far southwest would sit in the sole Republican-favored congressional district under the new map.

«Last November, Democrats sold Virginians a fake ‘affordability’ agenda that is false, a total hoax, and a con job,» Senate Minority Leader Ryan McDougle, R-Hanover, said.

«Now they are back at it, trying to shove another partisan power grab down our throats, this time wrapped in the phony label of ‘fairness,’» he told Fox News Digital.

Fox News Digital reached out to Beyer for further comment and to Gov. Abigail Spanberger for her take on his admission.

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Representative Don Beyer, a Democrat from Virginia, speaks during a campaign event for Terry McAuliffe, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for Virginia, in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., on Friday, July 23, 2021. McAuliffe is bringing President Biden to the vote-rich suburbs as he works to keep a national focus in the race and tie his Republican opponent to former President Trump. Photographer: Oliver Contreras/Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The text of the amendment facing voters next month asks whether the Constitution of Virginia should be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections.

The tagline «restore fairness» has become a clarion call for critics who claim exactly what Beyer appeared to admit: that the definition of «fairness» used is questionable at best.

«Representative Beyer said the quiet part out loud. This isn’t about fairness, transparency, or representing Virginians,» Rep. Ben Cline, R-Va., said. His Shenandoah Valley district stands to be chopped into several Fairfax-connected pieces under the new map.

«It’s about political power and Democrats’ determination to rig the map to ‘take back the House.’ When Democrats admit they’re willing to defend an unfair process in Virginia for the sake of national political power, it exposes exactly what’s driving this effort, and it has nothing to do with the people they’re supposed to represent,» Cline told Fox News Digital.

Five of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts would originate in Arlington or Fairfax counties and encompass meticulously drawn swaths of the state’s conservative interior, including one district ridiculed for resembling a lobster or scorpion, as it begins at the Potomac River and winds southwest through Democratic suburbs before splitting into two halves. One half includes rural Greene, Rockingham, and Augusta counties closer to West Virginia, while the other stretches down the Zachary Taylor Highway into Goochland and Powhatan counties west of Richmond.

In turn, a likely Democrat-majority district would form, narrowly connecting the independent cities of Harrisonburg, Staunton, and Waynesboro within Rockingham and Augusta counties and linking them via conservative areas like Nelson County with Lynchburg and Roanoke far to the south.

Beyer’s current district would likely become the new 8th and stretch down the west bank of the Potomac River through current Rep. Rob Wittman’s, R-Va., rural 1st District in the Northern Neck, collecting nearly a dozen small red counties in the state’s oyster country anchored by the deep-blue city.

The only Republican deemed safe under the map would be Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Va., in the far southwest, which would become an overwhelmingly Republican seat.

Rep. Jennifer Kiggans’ evenly split Eastern Shore and Hampton Roads district would draw in just enough urban and suburban population to potentially turn blue.

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Since early voting began this month, yard signs emblazoned with «VOTE NO» have begun popping up in several red counties threatened by the new map, including Culpeper, Shenandoah, Highland, Orange, and Page, home to Luray Caverns.

«VOTE YES» signs were, in turn, observed in rural Clarke and suburban Prince William counties over the weekend.