No hay dudas. No existe analista en Chile que no afirme que habrá un balotaje presidencial. Si hace tres semanas todo parecía predecible, y apuntaba a un paso del republicano José Antonio Kast y la candidata del oficialismo, la comunista Jeannette Jara, hoy en la derecha se agitan las aguas.

Distintos sondeos han evidenciado que Kast ha perdido apoyo, el que se ha traslado al libertario Johannes Kaiser. Hoy no es tan seguro quién será el contendor de Jara, que según encuestas como Cadem, Criteria y Panel UDD, parece mantener la base de apoyo al presidente Gabriel Boric, lo que significa rondar el 30% de intención de voto.

Pero para entender esta trama, se debe realizar un breve resumen. A comienzo de año lideraba las encuestas Evelyn Matthei, la candidata de la centroderecha, heredera del Piñerismo. En Junio, las encuestas comenzaron a evidenciar un desgaste de la ex alcaldesa de Providencia y un resurgimiento de Kast, quien lideró sin contrapesos los sondes de opinión pública hasta poco menos de un mes. En ese periodo surgió el libertario Kaiser, quien fue electo diputado acompañando a Kast en 2021, pero renunció al poco andar.

“Matthei fue sobrepasada por Kast, principalmente por dos razones. Primero, el comunismo ganó la primaria de la izquierda, lo que asustó a muchos, y muchos leyeron que para enfrentar a Jara se necesita un candidato duro. El liberalismo moderado de Matthei parecía no ser suficiente. Y como segunda razón, Kast asumió un encuadre bastante pragmático, seduciendo a muchos con la idea de que el suyo será un gobierno de emergencia, sin meterse en temas valóricos o conservadores”, explica el sociólogo Roberto Munita.

Y agrega que esto mismo le ha generado su leve declive: “Lo hizo crecer por el centro, pero pierde votos por la derecha más dura. Para muchos de los que apoyaron a Kast en 2021, este candidato se fue diluyendo y perdió sus valores; Kaiser, en cambio, que es un tipo más dogmático, representa esa derecha que no está dispuesta a cambiar una coma del programa por un millón de votos. Y eso lo ha hecho irrumpir como espuma en un electorado furioso, conservador y nacionalista”, sostiene.

Si bien en Chile existe veda electoral, la ley rige sólo para el territorio chileno. Durante la veda, la encuesta Cadem sondeó la intención de votos y reveló el siguiente escenario: Jara 27%; Kast 21%; Kaiser 15%; Matthei 13%. Más atrás le siguen el independiente Franco Parisi, quien se declara opositor a Boric, con un 11% y otros tres candidatos que no superan el 3% de intención de votos.

Cadem evidencia que Kaiser ha subido 7 puntos en aproximadamente un mes, mientras otras encuestas, como la desarrollada por el Sociólogo Alberto Mayol, lo sitúan sobre Kast por menos de un 1%, mostrando también a Matthei en el mismo rango de intención de votos. Mayol ha levantado la tesis del “triple empate en la derecha”.

La disputa se vuelve importante porque ningún partido de la oposición quiso realizar primarias. La primera vuelta se transformó en el desgrane natural. Lo cierto es que, en prácticamente todos los sondeos, los votos sumados de la oposición rondan el 60%. Por eso, quien pase con Jara a la segunda vuelta podría quedar en una inmejorable ventaja para ser el próximo presidente.

En la derecha, la contienda está picante, frente a un electorado que cada vez se identifica más con este sector político, según la encuesta Criteria de Cristián Valdivieso.

Matthei busca diferenciarse de Kast, diciendo que no basta combatir la delincuencia y la inmigración, levantando otros temas como empleo y salud. Kaiser ha elevado la apuesta buscando al electorado más identitario, prometiendo incluso indultos a violadores de derechos humanos de la dictadura de Pinochet, quienes cumplen condenas en el penal Punta Peuco. Kast, por su parte, busca administrar su leve ventaja y no elevar el tono, porque necesitará apoyos para ganar y gobernar.

Otro factor que están usando los candidatos para persuadir a los electores es el “voto útil”. Según los mismos sondeos, tanto Kast como Matthei derrotarían fácilmente a Jara en una segunda vuelta, no así Kaiser.

La irrupción del libertario y la tesis del triple empate han generado nerviosismo y revitalizado una contienda que se había vuelto monótona y predecible. Una primera vuelta tipo primaria que, advierten los especialistas, podría dejar prácticamente definido quien sucederá a Boric en el palacio presidencial.

The body of the last U.S. citizen held by Hamas, Staff Sergeant Itay Chen, a 19-year-old dual U.S.–Israeli citizen, has been returned from Gaza for burial, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed Monday. Seven more hostages’ bodies remain in Gaza.

«Following the completion of the identification process by the National Institute of Forensic Medicine, in cooperation with the Israel Police and the Military Rabbinate, IDF representatives informed the family that Itay had been returned for burial,» the military said.

Chen served as a combat soldier in the 77th Battalion of the 7th Armored Brigade. He was killed on the morning of October 7, 2023, while fighting near Kibbutz Nahal Oz—one of the hardest-hit communities in Hamas’s brutal attack. Chen’s tank was struck during the battle, and his body was taken into Gaza. His death was officially confirmed on March 10, 2024.

BODY OF ISRAELI HOSTAGE WHO WAS HELD FOR NEARLY 700 DAYS IN GAZA IS RECOVERED

Itay was the middle of three brothers. He grew up in Netanya, a city in central Israel, studied in an advanced academic program, and was known for his warmth, humor, and dedication. He loved basketball, hiking, and rock climbing, and before joining the army worked as a camp counselor. Even after sustaining an injury at camp, he insisted on finishing the summer to set an example for the kids he led. Later he enlisted as an armored-corps soldier, driven by a deep sense of duty to protect others. He leaves behind his parents, Ruby and Hagit, and his brothers Roi and Alon.

Over the past year, his parents led an unrelenting campaign to bring their son home. They met with senior officials in Israel and Washington, including President Trump, advocating for the return of all hostages and the remains of the fallen.

Ruby Chen addressed the U.N. Security Council, calling for more action to bring the hostages home from Gaza. Ruby’s son Itay is still being held in Gaza by Hamas terrorists. (Bianca Otero)

Ruby and Hagit Chen shared in a statement: «For 760 days, our dear and beloved son Itay, a hero of Israel, was held captive by Hamas. Last night, we received the bittersweet news of his return home to Israel. Even in this difficult moment, we remember that there are still seven hostages who must be brought back: Hadar Goldin, Ran Gvili, Meny Godard, Dror Or, Lior Rudaeff, Joshua Loitu Mollel and Sudthisak Rinthalak.»

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the Chen family shortly after being notified of the identification. The prime minister offered his heartfelt condolences to the family, asked about the well-being of Roy and Alon, Itay’s brothers, and vowed to continue the fight without relenting until the last hostage is returned. The family thanked the Prime Minister for bringing Itay home for a proper burial in Israel. 

Ruby Chen told Netanyahu that Itay’s sacrifice must not be in vain, and that there could be no return to the mindset of Oct. 6. He emphasized the need to establish a commission of inquiry, noting that the people of Israel deserve answers about what happened on that terrible day — answers for the 2,000 bereaved families and tens of thousands wounded in body and spirit.

President Trump’s special envoy for Peace Missions, Steve Witkoff, also called the Chen family for an extended conversation. 

Witkoff expressed his admiration for how the family had conducted their campaign to bring Itay home, and underscored their pivotal role in highlighting the urgency of returning all remaining hostages. He added that the family helped President Trump grasp the critical importance of bringing home both the living and the deceased hostages and reinforced American determination and commitment to press forward until the last hostage is returned.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Itay Chen, 19-year-old U.S.-Israeli citizen, was on active duty in a tank unit on Oct. 7, 2023.   (Hostage Family Forum)

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said, «The return of Itay brings a measure of relief to a family that lived in agonizing uncertainty for more than two years. We will not rest until the last hostage is returned.»

Chen’s funeral will take place this week with full military honors.

Following Zohran Mamdani’s decisive mayoral victory in New York City on Tuesday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., dodged a question on whether the self-proclaimed Democratic socialist is the future of the Democratic Party.

«You had record turnout in New York City for this election. Would you say that Mamdani is the future of the Democratic Party?» a reporter asked Jeffries during Wednesday’s press conference on Capitol Hill.

«Well, what Democrats have done all across the country is lean into the issue of affordability because of the fact that America’s too expensive costs are too high, and Donald Trump and Republicans, not only have they not done anything about it, they’ve made it worse as a result of the Trump tariffs as a result of them detonating the clean energy economy,» Jeffries responded.

«That’s why electricity bills are skyrocketing. And now, of course, they’re forcing these dramatically increased health care premiums to be visited upon the American people,» he added.

SOCIALIST SHOCKWAVE: ZOHRAN MAMDANI STUNS NYC AS VOTERS HAND POWER TO DEMOCRATS’ FAR-LEFT FLANK

Jeffries was also asked whether he is personally comfortable having the city he represents, the most populous city in America, be run by a socialist.

In response, Jeffries simply answered that Mamdani «is the mayor-elect of the City of New York,» saying, «It’s incumbent upon everyone to make sure that he’s successful.»

Although Mamdani was quickly endorsed by some of the country’s most progressive leaders, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., the Democratic Party’s top leadership was slower to give their blessing. Jeffries himself did not answer whether he would be endorsing Mamdani until just before early voting began on Oct. 24. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., never issued an endorsement of Mamdani. However, he called his electoral victory «historic.»

Mamdani, who is a 34-year-old immigrant from Uganda, is the first Muslim mayor of New York City.

WILL ELECTION DAY 2025 BE REMEMBERED AS THE RISE OF THE SOCIALISTS?

Zohran Mamdani delivers a victory speech at a mayoral election night watch party Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025, in New York City.  (Yuki Iwamura/AP)

Despite dodging these questions, Jeffries received an identical question earlier in the week about whether Mamdani is the future of the Democratic Party, prompting him to say, «I think the future of the Democratic Party is going to fall, as far as we‘re concerned, relative to the House Democratic Caucus and members who are doing a great work all across the country as it relates to our need to both take back control of the House.» 

Jeffries called Tuesday night’s election a «big night for the American people» and a «big night for the Democratic Party.»

Besides New York City, Democrats also notched major victories in California, Virginia and New Jersey. He called the election results «a decisive repudiation of Donald Trump and failed Republican policies.»

This comes as the government shutdown over expiring Obamacare subsidies and healthcare benefits enters day 36, becoming the longest closure in U.S. history.

Senate Democrats have voted 14 times to reject a House-passed continuing resolution budget bill that would reopen the government.

Despite this, Jeffries indicated that he believes the Tuesday election showed the country is blaming President Donald Trump and Republicans for the shutdown and that more Democratic victories are in store in 2026.

VANCE DELIVERS POST-ELECTION REALITY CHECK, CONTENDS GOP MUST MAKE LIFE AFFORDABLE OR GET WALLOPED IN 2026

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., right, update reporters after their meeting with President Donald Trump and Republican leaders in Washington Sept. 29, 2025.  (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

«We’re going to take back control of the United States House of Representatives. So, let’s be very clear about that,» he said. «Based on the environment that we know exists, which, as Democrats, we’ve been telling you for the last several months, is the reality, but now it’s been confirmed by the American people.»

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

He also praised the passage of a California redistricting proposition, which was backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, saying it will further help Democrats retake the House.

«Stay tuned because more is coming,» he said. «Republicans are going to be unable to gerrymander their way into rigging the midterm elections. That scheme is over. Buried dead in the ground. And so, we’re going to take back control of the House and fight for every inch of territory.»