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Error de cálculo o mecanismo de provocación: los motivos detrás del inesperado ataque de Irán a Turquía

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Irán lanzó este miércoles un misil balístico hacia Turquía, un país miembro de la OTAN, en un ataque inesperado que sorprendió al gobierno turco de Recep Tayyip Erdoğan y puso en alerta máxima a la alianza atlántica.

El gobierno iraní se había cuidado hasta ahora de no atacar a ningún integrante de la coalición militar liderada por Estados Unidos. Por caso, lanzó misiles hacia Chipre, un país miembro de la Unión Europea pero no de la OTAN y que alberga una base militar británica.

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Leé también: Guerra de Medio Oriente: dos bandos y 13 países involucrados en un conflicto que jaquea al mundo

El misil fue interceptado por fuerzas defensivas de la OTAN. Los restos de la munición antiaérea cayeron en el extremo sur del país sin causar daños. El gobierno turco advirtió que “no dudará en defender su territorio y espacio aéreo” y “responderá a actitudes hostiles dentro del marco del derecho internacional”.

Desde la OTAN reaccionaron con cautela. Incluso, el secretario de Defensa estadounidense, Pete Hegseth, dijo que el Pentágono no considera que este incidente sea suficiente para activar la cláusula de defensa colectiva de la coalición, estipulada en el Artículo 5 del Tratado de Washington.

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“No tiene sentido que se active algo parecido al Artículo 5”, afirmó. Este apartado establece que si un país de la OTAN es atacado, la respuesta será colectiva. La última vez que se activó fue tras los atentados del 11 de septiembre de 2001 en Nueva York.

El mapa de la guerra en Medio Oriente (Datos y coordinación visual: Damián Mugnolo
Diseño de infografías: Iván Paulucci)

Qué dijo Irán sobre su fallido ataque a Turquía

El gobierno iraní se mantuvo en silencio público, pero buscó calmar a Turquía, un país de mayoría musulmana con el que mantiene una relación pragmática y comercial más allá de su pertenencia a la OTAN.

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Incluso, Turquía tiene un vínculo ambiguo con Israel. Si bien mantienen lazos diplomáticos y distintos acuerdos bilaterales, Erdogan ha sido un duro crítico de la guerra de Gaza y llegó a denunciar un “genocidio” en el enclave palestino.

ARCHIVO - El presidente de Turquía, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (AP Foto/Khalil Hamra, archivo)

ARCHIVO – El presidente de Turquía, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (AP Foto/Khalil Hamra, archivo)

Analistas internacionales sostienen además que Israel y Turquía están destinados a rivalizar, tarde o temprano, en la región. De hecho, Ankara mantiene un gran poder en la nueva Siria surgida tras la caída del gobernante prorruso y proiraní Bashar al Assad y hoy bajo el gobierno del antiguo “terrorista” de Al Qaeda, Ahmad Al‑Sharaa, reconvertido en un buen “socio” de Washington.

Por eso sorprendió tanto el ataque iraní.

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Un funcionario turco, citado por AFP, dijo que el gobierno cree que Turquía “no era el objetivo” del misil iraní. La sospecha es que se trató de un error de cálculo. “Creemos que su objetivo era una base en la parte griega de Chipre, pero se desvió de su rumbo”, indicó.

Leé también: Qué quiere Trump en Irán: la nueva estrategia “venezolana” y una alternativa islámica alineada con EE.UU.

La isla de Chipre, en el Mediterráneo, está dividida en dos desde su independencia en la década del 60. Una parte de mayoría griega miembro de la UE y otra de mayoría turca bautizada como República Turca del Norte de Chipre y solo reconocida por Ankara.

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Pero según la agencia española, EFE, la trayectoria descrita del disparo es coherente con un misil lanzado desde el oeste de Irán hacia la base militar de Incirlik, cerca de Adana, en el sur de Turquía. Se trata del principal punto de apoyo de la OTAN en el país. Además, alberga unidades estadounidenses.

Según una fuente de la cancillería de Ankara, citada por la agencia de noticias estatal Anadolu, el canciller Hakan Fidan habló con su homólogo iraní Abás Araqchi y le transmitió que “debe evitarse cualquier medida susceptible de causar una escalada del conflicto”.

Las dudas crecen en Turquía tras el ataque de Irán

El periodista y analista español Ilya Topper, co-fundador del Colectivo Mediterráneo Sur y radicado desde hace años en Estambul, dijo a TN que el debate hoy en Turquía se centra en determinar si este ataque, al que se califica de “inverosímil”, puede “ser de falsa bandera para arrastrar al país a la guerra”.

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“Otros, más prudentes, creen que simplemente hay comandantes en Irán aislados por la guerra de la cadena de mando que lanzan misiles a donde pueden”, señaló.

Leé también: Irán: el hijo del ayatollah asesinado Alí Jamenei fue elegido como el nuevo líder supremo

Para Topper, “es lógico que haya algún misil programado desde siempre con las coordenadas de Incirlik. Todo ejército que se precie tiene este tipo de preparaciones para objetivos importantes en caso de guerra”.

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“Turquía quiere quitarle hierro (minimizar) y correr un velo para no incrementar la tensión. El canciller Fidan ya ha hablado con Araqchi. Creo que fue más bien un error o un acto individual de alguien en Irán que una estrategia planificada y consensuada en Teherán”, concluyó.

Irán, Israel, Donald Trump, Turquía

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Iran postpones Tehran farewell ceremony for Khamenei where large crowds were expected to gather

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Iran postponed a planned farewell ceremony in Tehran for its late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed Saturday in U.S.-Israeli strikes as part of Operation Epic Fury.

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The three-day program was scheduled to begin Wednesday at 10 p.m. local time at Imam Khomeini Prayer Hall, where large crowds were expected to gather to pay their respects, according to Tasnim, a semi-official Iranian news agency. 

Hojjatoleslam Seyed Mohsen Mahmoudi, head of the Islamic Propaganda Coordination Council of Tehran Province, said the postponement followed widespread requests to participate and the need to provide adequate infrastructure and facilities to accommodate attendees.

«It was decided to hold the ceremony at a more appropriate time,» he explained.

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Iranian worshipers pray under a giant portrait of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at a prayer hall in Imam Khomeini Mosque in Tehran, Dec. 9, 2022. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

No additional reason for the postponement was given, and it was not immediately clear when the ceremony would be rescheduled.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Iranian leadership in a post on X that any successor who tries to «destroy Israel, to threaten the United States and the free world and the countries of the region, and to suppress the Iranian people» will be an «unequivocal target for elimination.»

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«It does not matter what his name is or the place where he hides,» Katz said.

TRUMP SAYS US SANK 10 SHIPS IN IRAN STRIKE, ‘LAST, BEST CHANCE’ TO ACT

People carry large portraits of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a Hezbollah funeral procession in Beirut.

Portraits of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, right, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are carried by scouts in Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 24, 2025. (Scott Peterson/Getty Images)

The funeral of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, drew massive crowds in the country’s capital on June 11, 1989, with an estimated 10.2 million people in attendance, roughly one-sixth of the nation’s population at the time. 

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According to Guinness World Records, it drew the largest percentage of a population ever recorded at a funeral.

IRANIAN JOURNALIST URGES TRUMP TO ‘FINISH THE JOB,’ SAYS IRANIANS FEAR ‘WOUNDED REGIME’

Mourners press forward around the casket at Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s tomb in Tehran’s Behesht Zahra cemetery.

A huge crowd gathers around the container covering Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s tomb at Behesht Zahra cemetery in Tehran on June 7, 1989. (Christophe Simon And Pascal George/AFP via Getty Images)

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Khamenei’s death triggers a closely watched succession process overseen by Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for appointing the supreme leader.

«The IRGC is a key stakeholder in this process, and will heavily influence its outcome,» Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, told Fox News Digital.

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Rubio says in ‘simple English’ Iran run by ‘lunatics,’ defends Trump strike as ‘right decision’

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered one of his bluntest defenses yet of President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran Tuesday, sharply rejecting criticism and describing the regime as «lunatics» as he argued the president acted at the right moment to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

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«Let me explain to you guys this in simple English, okay? Iran is run by lunatics, religious fanatic lunatics,» Rubio told reporters.

«They have an ambition to have nuclear weapons,» Rubio said. «This is the weakest they’ve ever been. Now is the time to go after them.»

Rubio said Trump made the «right decision» to dismantle Iran’s military capabilities before they could shield a nuclear program.

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«The president made the decision to go after them, take away their missiles, take away their navy, take away their drones … so that they can never have a nuclear weapon,» Rubio said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday defended President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s military infrastructure.  (Alex Brandon / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)

He acknowledged «there will be a price to pay,» but argued it would be far lower than allowing Iran to become nuclear-armed.

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«That is a much lower price to pay than having a nuclear armed Iran,» he said.

Rubio grew visibly sharper when pressed on whether Israel dictated the timing of the operation.

«Your statement is false,» he told one reporter who suggested the U.S. acted because Israel was about to strike.

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Rubio confirmed Monday that Israel was prepared to act independently.

«We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces,» Rubio said. «And we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them … we would suffer higher casualties.»

He emphasized Tuesday that the decision ultimately rested with President Donald Trump.

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«The president determined we were not going to get hit first,» Rubio said. «If you tell the president of the United States that if we don’t go first, we’re going to have more people killed and more people injured, the president is going to go first.»

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said after a classified briefing that Israel was «determined to act … with or without American support,» and that U.S. officials concluded «a coordinated response was necessary.»

«I am convinced that they did the right thing,» Johnson said.

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Despite Rubio’s harsh rhetoric toward Iran’s clerical leadership, administration officials have emphasized that the mission is not aimed at overthrowing the regime but at dismantling its military capabilities.

"Unclassified" aerial footage shows a missile launcher being struck by an explosive.

U.S. Central Command released footage showing strikes on Iranian mobile missile launchers. (@CENTCOM via X)

Rubio repeatedly framed the operation as focused on destroying Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers, drone capabilities and naval assets.

«Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,» he said. «It cannot have the things it was hiding behind to have a nuclear weapons program.»

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SEN. KENNEDY PRAISES TRUMP’S RESOLVE ON IRAN, SAYS ‘WORLD IS SAFER TODAY BECAUSE OF WHAT HE’S DONE’

So far, U.S. and Israeli strikes largely have targeted missile infrastructure and military facilities. Officials have not indicated that nuclear enrichment sites have been the primary focus of the campaign.

Some Democrats questioned whether the administration demonstrated an imminent threat to the United States.

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Crowds assemble in Tehran’s Revolution Square holding images of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Qassem Soleimani and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini beneath a large banner.

People gather in Revolution Square to mourn the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed Feb. 28 in a joint Israel-U.S. operation, in Tehran, Iran, March 1, 2026.  (Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images)

«There was no imminent threat to the United States of America by the Iranians. It was a threat to Israel,» Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., said after the briefing. «We equate a threat to Israel is the equivalent of an imminent threat to the United States. Then we are in uncharted territory.»

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said after the classified briefing, «I have no idea what the objective is, and I didn’t get any additional clarity.»

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Rubio brushed aside the criticism, predicting opponents would emerge from briefings claiming they «didn’t hear anything» while insisting the administration complied with congressional notification requirements.

«This is an action by the president to address a real threat,» Rubio said. «The world will be a safer place when these radical clerics no longer have access to these weapons.»

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74 retired US generals, admirals back Iran strikes, warn Tehran seeks to ‘spill American blood’

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A group of 74 retired U.S. generals and admirals recently voiced strong support for the joint U.S.-Israel military operation targeting Iran, calling it a necessary response to decades of threats from the Islamic Republic against the United States, its allies and regional stability.

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The endorsement came in an open letter published Tuesday by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) and signed by dozens of former senior American military commanders. 

The letter backs the current military actions, known as Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, which aim to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten U.S. forces and partners across the Middle East.

«As retired senior American military leaders, we support the joint U.S.-Israeli military action to degrade and weaken the Iranian regime’s ability to threaten the United States, our allies and partners, and the Iranian people,» the letter states. «And we commend the valor of the outstanding United States Military and our Intelligence Community engaged in this operation.»

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Open Letter from 74 Retired U.S. Military Leaders in Support of Joint U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran (Jewish Institute for National Security of America)

Among the prominent signatories are former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Edmund P. Giambastiani Jr., who served during the height of the Iraq War; former Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jerome Johnson; former Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. W.L. Nyland, who held the post during the early Iraq War; former Supreme Allied Commander Europe and Commander of U.S. European Command Gen. Philip M. Breedlove; and former U.S. Pacific Command chief Adm. Timothy J. Keating.

The retired commanders argue that Iran’s leadership has spent decades threatening American interests and supporting militant groups across the region.

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«Since its inception 47 years ago, the radical regime, whose slogan is ‘Death to America, Death to Israel,’ has committed to endangering the lives of U.S. troops, diplomats, and civilians across the Middle East and here at home,» the letter says, noting that «hundreds of Americans have lost their lives at the hands of the Islamic Republic and its terrorist proxies.»

According to the signatories, the current military campaign is a direct response to Iran’s continued efforts to expand its military capabilities.

LONGTIME TRUMP CRITIC CREDITS HIM FOR RESTORING ‘CREDIBILITY OF US DETERRENCE’ AS IRAN STRIKES UNFOLD

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CENTCOM Chief Brad Cooper in Israel

The Commander of the United States Central Command Adm. Brad Cooper recently visited Israel as the official guest of the chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir.  (IDF Spokesman’s Unit.)

«U.S.-Israel military action is a response to Iran’s unstinting efforts to make those ambitions a reality,» the letter states. «Following last summer’s 12-Day War, Tehran has redoubled its missile building program to hold at risk our bases, our partners, and ultimately our homeland.»

Iran’s regional proxy network also remains a central concern, the letter warns. «Its proxy forces in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and elsewhere continue to threaten U.S. targets, Israel, and freedom of navigation in some of the world’s most vital waterways.»

The letter further argues that Iran has continued pursuing nuclear capabilities despite previous military setbacks. 

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«Since Operation Midnight Hammer against its main enrichment sites last June, Iran has attempted to rebuild elements of its destroyed nuclear infrastructure,» the letter states. 

The signatories also point to Iran’s domestic repression as evidence of the regime’s nature. 

«The regime’s brutal crackdown on protestors showed the entire world just what it is willing to do to keep its people and the region under its thumb,» they wrote.

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ISRAEL STRIKES IRANIAN LEADERSHIP MEETING CHOOSING KHAMENEI SUCCESSOR

A U.S. Navy ship launches Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles in support of Operation Epic Fury.

A U.S. Navy ship launches Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles in support of Operation Epic Fury. (U.S. Central Command Public Affairs)

At the same time, the letter stresses that coordination between the United States, Israel and regional partners will be critical for the campaign’s success.

«For all these reasons, it is noteworthy that the United States is working so closely with Israel and other regional partners,» the letter states. «Such cooperation is vital to degrade and eliminate the regime’s arsenals, undermine its organs of oppression, and signal unmistakably that it cannot continue threatening not only core U.S. interests, but the broader security and prosperity of the Middle East and its own population.»

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Secretary of War Pete Hegseth described the joint campaign as a decisive military operation aimed at dismantling Iran’s missile and air defense networks.

Speaking Wednesday, Hegseth said the Israeli and U.S. air forces were quickly establishing air superiority over Iran.

«Starting last night and to be completed in a few days … the two most powerful air forces in the world will have complete control of Iranian skies. Uncontested airspace,» Hegseth said.

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Critics, however, have warned the operation could have the opposite effect, increasing the risk of a wider regional war. 

French President Emmanuel Macron urged restraint following the strikes, warning that further escalation could destabilize the region, while U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres cautioned that the confrontation could spiral into a broader conflict and called for renewed diplomatic efforts.

Several Democratic lawmakers have also raised concerns about the strikes. 

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Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., said he believed the operation amounted to «a war of choice with no strategic endgame.» 

Senator Mark Warner, D-Va., said after attending a classified briefing that he had not seen evidence of an immediate Iranian threat. 

Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at JINSA, said the letter reflects the perspective of commanders who witnessed the Iranian threat firsthand.

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«For more than two decades, Iran has been targeting and killing U.S. men and women in uniform,» Misztal said. «The retired senior military leaders who signed this letter have seen that threat up close and firsthand. They understand the threat that Iran poses to America, the urgent need to address it, and the tremendous capabilities that the United States and Israel have to do so, together.»

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An unclassified image provided by CENTCOM of strikes on Iran

A screengrab from a video released by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which accompanied a press release describing the operation dubbed Epic Fury, an attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, shows smoke and dust rising following an explosion at an unknown location, in this image obtained from social media released Feb. 28, 2026.  (US CENTCOM via X via REUTERS )

While supporting continued military pressure, the signatories concluded that Iran’s long-term future ultimately lies with its citizens. 

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«It will ultimately be up to the Iranian people to bring down the regime and enable a better future for Iran and the world,» the letter states.

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