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Experts warn Iran’s nuclear double-talk designed to buy time, undermine US pressure
Senior Iranian officials are threatening to ramp up the country’s nuclear program as the Trump administration weighs a possible strike against the regime if Tehran does not come to the table for negotiations.
«The president should be making the regime sweat, pure and simple,» Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
«This can be done with strict enforcement of maximum pressure sanctions, and a targeted campaign against regime assets in the region – Yemen being a good example now. Washington will also need to add a critical third element to its otherwise economic and military pressure policy. Maximum support for the Iranian people.»
IRAN’S KHAMENEI WARNS OF ‘STRONG BLOW’ AS TRUMP THREATENS TO DROP BOMBS, PUTIN SILENT ON US IRE
An Iranian military truck carries surface-to-air missiles past a portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a parade on the occasion of the country’s annual army day on April 18, 2018 in Tehran, Iran. (ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)
Lisa Daftari, a Middle East expert and editor-in-chief at The Foreign Desk, told Fox News Digital that while diplomacy often demands negotiation, extending any offer to Iran’s regime, even symbolically, risks legitimizing a government that has spent decades terrorizing its own people and funding proxies like Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah.
«This regime thrives on defiance, not dialogue. That has not changed. For over four decades, the mullahs have understood only one language: might,» Daftari said.
President Donald Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Thursday that it would be better if the U.S. had direct talks with Iran.
«I think it goes faster, and you can understand the other side a lot better than if you go through intermediaries,» Trump said. «They wanted to use intermediaries. I don’t think that’s necessarily true anymore. I think they’re concerned. I think they feel vulnerable, and I don’t want them to feel that way.»
Trump also threatened to bomb Iran and impose secondary sanctions on Iranian oil if it did not come to the bargaining table over its nuclear program. Although the president said he preferred to make a deal, Trump did not rule out a military option.
Iranians protest 22-year-old Mahsa Amini’s death after she was detained by the morality police, in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 20, 2022. (AP Photo/Middle East Images, File)
«It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before,» President Trump told NBC News last weekend.
The U.S. expanded its deterrence efforts in the region, deploying additional squadrons of fighter jets, bombers, and predator drones to reinforce defensive air-support capabilities. The U.S. is also sending the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group to the region to join USS Harry S. Truman, which has been in the Middle East to fight against the Houthi’s in Yemen.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, responded with threats of his own and said that Iran would respond «decisively and immediately» to any threat issued by the U.S. Iran is still floating the idea of indirect talks, something the administration is reportedly considering.
WALTZ TELLS IRAN TO GIVE UP NUCLEAR PROGRAM OR ‘THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES’
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei views Iranian nuclear achievements on Sunday, June 11. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Reuters)
Taleblu said, «Tehran’s counteroffer of indirect talks is the regime’s way of rejecting Trump while leaving the door open for talks that can be used as a shield against a potential preemptive attack.»
The president sent a letter to Khamenei expressing interest in making a deal on the nuclear issue. While increasing its military presence in the region, reports indicate that the Trump administration is considering indirect talks with Iran to curb the expansion of its nuclear program and avoid a direct confrontation.
Experts and observers of the region warn that Iran has used negotiating as a delaying tactic in the past and warn the Trump administration against entering into talks that might further embolden Iran.
«The Trump administration should impose full pressure on the regime in Iran given how weak the regime has become in the last several years. Indirect talks are the regime’s strategy of buying time so it can live to fight another day,» Alireza Nader, an independent analyst in Washington, D.C., and expert on Iran, told Fox News Digital.
Nader’s recommendation to Trump is to support the people of Iran and argued that the regime is much weaker than it appears.
«President Trump really wants a deal. Iran has a chance here to go back and negotiate, keep its civilian nuclear program but make concessions about its size and the duration of a deal,» Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Fox News Digital.
«Trump is in a dominant position. Republicans in Congress fear him. Nothing can stop him—at least for now. But power is fickle. The longer he’s in the White House, the more vulnerable he may become. Iran shouldn’t wait for that,» Vatanka added.
PRESIDENT TRUMP CAN STOP IRAN’S MARCH TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS: ‘RE-ESTABLISH CREDIBLE MILITARY THREAT’, REPORT SAYS
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea attends a rally held by protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, to show support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen, on Nov. 22, 2024. (REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah)
In an interview with Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies podcast, «The Iran Breakdown,» former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said that eventually, Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facility, with or without the United States, because there is no other choice, according to Lapid.
Ali Larijani, an advisor to the supreme leader, said in an interview that although Iran does not seek a nuclear weapon, Tehran will have no choice but to build a nuclear weapon if the U.S. or Israel strike Iran.
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported in February that Iran has accelerated its nuclear program and has enriched uranium close to weapons-grade levels.
Danielle Pletka, senior fellow in Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told Fox News Digital that having additional military assets in the Middle East is sound policy given the threats that the U.S. and its allies face in the region.
For Pletka, the question is, what is the Trump administration looking for?
«A deal in which the Iranians do not fully get rid of their nuclear weapons program? If so, the president sets the United States up for the risk that Barack Obama inflicted on our allies and ourselves – merely delaying the Iranian nuclear program to a later date,» Pletka told Fox News Digital.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, and President Donald Trump. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo)
Pletka said it is strange that President Trump seems to envision a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)-like deal, and that has prompted a lot of criticism on Capitol Hill.
Trump originally withdrew from JCPOA, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, during his first term in 2018 and reapplied harsh economic sanctions. The Biden administration had initially looked at re-engaging with Iran on the nuclear issue upon taking office, but on-again-off-again talks went nowhere, complicated by Iran’s domestic politics and its role in supporting its terror groups in the region.
The other risk that the president runs, according to AEI’s Pletka, is being perceived as a paper tiger.
«He threatened Hamas with bombing that he never delivered. Now he’s threatening Iran with military action. But does he really mean it? Or is he just blowing hot air?» she said.
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Pletka said, «There is an enormous amount of uncertainty around the president’s intentions, and that uncertainty is an opportunity for the Iranians to exploit.»
The Middle East Institute’s Vatanka said he believed that Trump could claim a potential win he can sell at home and say he got a better deal than President Obama did with the JCPOA, if Iran were to agree to permanently keep its enrichment level to a low level, unlike the expiration dates included in the JCPOA.
El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, anunció que Israel y el grupo terrorista Hamas llegaron a un acuerdo para un intercambio de rehenes por prisioneros, en el marco de la primera fase de un plan global para la finalización de la guerra en Gaza.
El plan, estructurado en 20 puntos, establece los pasos a seguir en la zona de Medio Oriente. El primer punto del esquema establece que Gaza debe convertirse en “una zona desradicalizada y libre de terrorismo para que no represente una amenaza para sus vecinos”. La segunda cláusula agrega que el enclave “será reconstruido para beneficio de su población, que ha sufrido más que suficiente”.
El tercer apartado fija la condición de que, si ambas partes aceptan, “la guerra terminará inmediatamente”. Israel deberá retirarse a la línea acordada para preparar la liberación de los cautivos, mientras se congelan las operaciones militares. El cuarto punto impone un plazo estricto: “Dentro de las 72 horas de que Israel acepte públicamente este acuerdo, todos los rehenes, vivos y muertos, serán devueltos”.
El quinto punto establece el componente recíproco: tras la liberación de los rehenes, Israel pondrá en libertad a “250 prisioneros condenados a cadena perpetua, además de 1.700 gazatíes detenidos después del 7 de octubre de 2023, incluidas todas las mujeres y niños”.
También se estipula que, por cada rehén fallecido que se devuelva, Israel entregará “los restos de 15 gazatíes”.
El sexto punto aborda el tratamiento de los combatientes de Hamas. Quienes se comprometan a la “coexistencia pacífica y a entregar sus armas” recibirán amnistía, y quienes deseen salir de Gaza contarán con un pasaje seguro hacia otros países.
El séptimo compromiso abre la puerta a la asistencia humanitaria: “Al aceptarse este acuerdo, la ayuda ingresará inmediatamente en Gaza”, con volúmenes mínimos iguales a los pactados en el acuerdo del 19 de enero de 2025, incluyendo reparación de infraestructuras esenciales.
Según el octavo apartado, la distribución de esa ayuda quedará en manos de la ONU, la Cruz Roja y otras instituciones neutrales. El cruce de Rafah se abrirá en ambas direcciones bajo el mismo mecanismo del acuerdo de enero.
El noveno punto crea un gobierno provisional: Gaza quedará bajo la administración de un “comité tecnocrático palestino, apolítico, con supervisión internacional de una ´Junta de Paz´, encabezado por Donald Trump y figuras como Tony Blair”, encargado de la financiación de la reconstrucción hasta que la Autoridad Palestina pueda asumir el control.
El décimo punto introduce un “plan económico de Trump para reconstruir y revitalizar Gaza”, a cargo de expertos en desarrollo urbano del Medio Oriente. El undécimo crea una “zona económica especial con tarifas preferenciales y acceso negociado con países participantes”. El duodécimo apartado garantiza que “nadie será forzado a salir de Gaza”, aunque quienes deseen emigrar pueden hacerlo con derecho de retorno.
El punto trece excluye al grupo terrorista Hamas del futuro político del enclave: “Hamas y otras facciones acuerdan no tener ningún papel en el gobierno de Gaza, directa o indirectamente”. Todo el arsenal militar será destruido bajo supervisión internacional, con un programa de recompra de armas y reintegración financiado por donantes externos. El decimocuarto punto asegura la participación de actores regionales en la vigilancia del cumplimiento de las obligaciones para garantizar que “la nueva Gaza no represente una amenaza”.
El decimoquinto establece una Fuerza Internacional de Estabilización, que “se desplegará de inmediato en Gaza” para entrenar a la policía local y cooperar con Egipto e Israel en el control fronterizo. El decimosexto compromete a Israel a no ocupar ni anexar el territorio, con una retirada progresiva en función de la desmilitarización, conservando solo un perímetro de seguridad transitorio.
El decimoséptimo apartado prevé medidas de ayuda y reconstrucción en zonas “libres de terrorismo” bajo control internacional en caso de que Hamas dilate o rechace el plan.
El decimoctavo punto impulsa “un proceso de diálogo interreligioso basado en la tolerancia y la coexistencia”. El decimonoveno sugiere que “al avanzar la reconstrucción y cumplirse el programa de reforma de la Autoridad Palestina”, podrían darse condiciones para avanzar hacia “la autodeterminación y el Estado palestino”.
El vigésimo y último punto establece que Estados Unidos “abrirá un diálogo entre Israel y los palestinos para acordar un horizonte político de coexistencia pacífica y próspera”.
(Con información de AFP y EFE)
Domestic,Politics,North America,Government / Politics
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It must be something about October and two-year intervals in Congress.
Congress was paralyzed for more than three weeks without a leader two years ago this October as the House unceremoniously ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.
And Congress is paralyzed again this October – unable to find the votes to re-open the government.
«There’s nothing for us to negotiate,» said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. «We did the job to keep the government open. And now it’s on the Senate Democrats.»
OMINOUS RED AND ORANGE SKIES HAD CAPITOL HILL TAKE NOTICE AS SHUTDOWN LOOMED
But Democrats say that’s the problem. There haven’t been negotiations. Save for a brief White House meeting last week between President Trump and the top four bipartisan, bicameral Congressional leaders a day before the shutdown.
«The Majority Leader in the Senate, John Thune, R-S.D., talks about, ‘we’ll have conversations.’ We need more than conversations. We need a real negotiation,» said Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., on Fox.
So there are no talks. And the sides are seemingly talking past each other.
It seems as though Congress is positively heading nowhere as shutdown negotiations drag on. (Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters)
So, they’ve turned to handicapping.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., gamed out that the shutdown would run another week.
«It won’t end until everybody in the Senate takes their ego out back and shoots it. And then it’ll end,» predicted Kennedy.
It always is, and always will be about the math.
Senate Republicans can conjure up the votes of 55 senators to break a filibuster on the House-passed bill to fund the government. But they need 60 yeas. And Republicans are determined to stick to their playbook.
«I can tell you there’s more than five Democrats in the Senate who know that (Senate Minority Leader) Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. has led them into a box canyon with this Schumer shutdown,» said Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., on Fox. «But the consequences will start to pile up.»
REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK: SENATE REVOTES TODAY ON ENDING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt wouldn’t directly answer a question about what would trigger federal firings. But Leavitt made clear that jobs hung in the balance.
«We don’t want to see people laid off. But unfortunately, if this shutdown continues, layoffs are going to be an unfortunate consequence of that,» said Leavitt.
Democrats excoriated the Trump Administration for hinting it would cut programs and jobs in agencies important to Democrats.
«Americans really hate bullies. And this kind of bullying from the White House is going to backlash because they understand that an authoritarian president uses grants to New York for infrastructure, laying off workers, deliberately inflicting pain,» predicted Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. «Don’t inflict unnecessary pain and then boast about it.»
Some Republicans practically reveled in the White House approach.
«All’s fair in love and war. I think that there’s a price to pay for the Democrats shutting this down,» said Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan. «These will be part of the consequences.»
Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., argued that the shutdown is «collective punishment» and undercuts Republicans equally harshly. (Tierney L. Cross/Getty Images)
But one Democrat argued that the Trump administration’s gambit would also undercut Republicans and voters who supported the president. Even in blue states.
«There’s a lot of folks in Vermont, there’s lot of folk in Illinois who voted for President Trump. So this sort of collective punishment,» said Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., on Fox. «I think it’s a really bad idea.»
But the president is coy about when the shutdown could trigger federal layoffs.
«It could,» said the president. «At some point it will.»
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy noted that his department saw «a slight uptick» in aviation safety employees who were calling out sick during the shutdown – since they weren’t being paid.
«They’re thinking about how am I going to get a paycheck? How do I make a car payment,» said Duffy.
WHITE HOUSE ESCALATES SHUTDOWN CONSEQUENCES AS DEMOCRATS SHOW NO SIGNS OF BUDGING: ‘KAMIKAZE ATTACK’
But if you squint, you can see a few signs of bipartisanship.
Johnson is discussing Obamacare subsidies with one prominent Democrat.
«I had I think a fruitful discussion, with Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., about two days ago, a day or so ago,» said Johnson on efforts to address looming Obamacare premium spikes. «Whatever the conference committee comes up with, I will put on the floor. I’m ready to go.»
But Schumer is skeptical about the Speaker’s promises.
«Delay has always been Speaker Johnson’s MO. Speaker Johnson has survived by kicking the can down the road,» said Schumer. «When Johnson says later, they know he means never.»
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., insists Democrats are «playing a losing game.» (Alex Brandon/AP Photo)
Tension is building as the shutdown barrels into its second week as lawmakers spin in circles.
«I realize that my Democrat colleagues are facing pressure from members of their far left base. But they’re playing a losing game here,» said Thune.
But each side is now engaged in a game of parliamentary chicken. Republicans won’t budge from their demand that Senate Democrats approve their funding plan. And Democrats won’t relent from their insistence that the sides shore up Obamacare subsidies.
«I’m not going to vote to reopen the government until I see a way that we can do that,» said Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del.
Even some Republicans worry about Obamacare price spikes.
«There are some folks in what is the new part of the Republican Party, which is blue-collar workers,» said Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., on Fox Business. «We have to be careful how we do this. We just shouldn’t cut it. We should make sure we use a scalpel and not a sledgehammer.»
SHUTDOWN IGNITES STRATEGIST DEBATE: WILL TRUMP AND GOP PAY THE POLITICAL PRICE IN 2026?
But even if bipartisan senators were to forge a deal, the plan may slam into a brick wall in the House.
«Republicans have spent most of their careers being against Obamacare. Why would they expand it and add a subsidy on top of a subsidy?» asked House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla.
A debate is now raging over which side will cave. Or which party faces political consequences.
Naturally, Republicans believe Democrats will pay a price.
«Their radical base just wants to see them up here fighting Donald Trump, not over any particular issues,» said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.
But Democrats don’t see a political downside.
«Are you concerned in any way about the political ramifications that voters might blame your side down the road?» yours truly asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.
«The American people are crystal clear on who shut down the government. Crystal clear,» replied Jeffries.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., suggested Americans are «crystal clear» on who shoulders the blame for the shutdown. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
However, some lawmakers doubt that voters care about who «shut down the government.»
«My constituents don’t care about the finger pointing. They just want us to govern,» said Rep. Madeleine Dean, D-Pa.
As the impasse deepens, the Senate shifted from parliamentary posturing to ecumenical intercession.
«On this third day of the government shutdown, inspire them to work for your glory in all they think, say, and sow,» prayed Senate Chaplain Barry Black during his invocation of the Senate last week.
HERE’S WHAT TRUMP WANTS TO DO TO RESHAPE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DURING THE SHUTDOWN
And then there are the sideshows. The White House sent out a meme portraying Budget Director Russ Vought as the Grim Reaper. And the president trolled Jeffries with an AI-generated social media video, casting Jeffries in a sombrero and a mustache with mariachi music playing in the background.
At the same time, Republicans warned about grave shutdown consequences.
«Real pain is being endured by real people,» said Johnson.
But in the next breath, the Speaker defended the president making light of circumstances, describing the trolling as «entertainment.»
«That’s what President Trump does. And people are having fun with this,» said Johnson.
I didn’t let that go.
«On one hand, you say this is very serious. That people have jobs on the line. On the other hand, you say, ‘oh, this is just fun and games and they’re trolling.’ Which is it?» I inquired.
«What they’re trying to have fun with, trying to make light of, is to point out the absurdity of the Democrats’ position,» answered Johnson.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., defended President Trump’s making light of current circumstances as «entertainment.» (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
So we don’t know if or when Vought will drop the anvil on federal workers. But one senator who caucuses with the Democrats and voted for the GOP plan, signaled his support could wane if Republicans overplay their hand.
«If they start firing thousands of people or clawing back other kinds of programs, I think, it could hurt their chances of getting this resolved,» said Sen. Angus King, I-Maine.’
The Senate has now blocked the House-approved spending package on six separate occasions. The sides are having casual conversations. But nothing has happened.
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It’s as though Congress is on a merry-go-round to nowhere, just going around and around. Everyone’s getting dizzy. And just wants to dismount.
congress,government shutdown,house of representatives politics,senate,white house
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