La guerra en Medio Oriente empieza a entrar en un pantano que preocupa cada vez más a Donald Trump. Es un terreno en el que Irán se mueve más cómodo y que le sirve para desplegar toda su retórica belicista frente a los impredecibles movimientos del presidente estadounidense.

La Casa Blanca presentó una hoja de ruta de 15 puntos a Teherán, a través de Pakistán, para sellar un acuerdo que ponga fin a una guerra que en tres días cumplirá un mes, muchísimo más de lo proyectado por Washington y que hoy no muestra una salida viable.

La respuesta fue inmediata. El gobierno de los ayatollah rechazó la propuesta y contraofertó un plan más acotado, de cinco puntos, que a simple vista es una invitación a continuar las hostilidades.

Irán sabe que la guerra militar está perdida, pero también que su resistencia va por otro camino. Mientras mantenga el cierre de facto del estrecho de Ormuz y tenga a tiro la infraestructura petrolera, hídrica y gasística de los Países del Golfo, amenaza causar un enorme daño a la economía estadounidense, al mercado petrolero y al comercio internacional.

Trump tiene la fuerza militar, pero el tiempo le juega en contra. Si fracasa la opción diplomática solo le quedará la carta de una invasión, acotada pero con un contingente poderoso en el terreno.

No es la mejor imagen para una campaña electoral que se avecina en su país. En siete meses, el 3 de noviembre, se someterá a un virtual referéndum popular en las elecciones de medio término. Necesita cerrar el ‘capítulo Irán’ con un discurso victorioso. Los ayatollah, escondidos y debilitados, tienen tiempo para ojear sus cartas.

¿Es posible un acuerdo?

En ese escenario, las virtuales negociaciones empezaron con ofertas imposibles en ambos bandos.

“Todavía están lejos (de un arreglo). No creo que estén dadas las condiciones para llevar adelante un acuerdo de paz”, dijo a TN el analista Said Chaya, director del Núcleo de Estudios de Medio Oriente de la Universidad Austral.

Para el especialista, “eso no quita que exista la posibilidad de un alto el fuego en el contexto de las negociaciones. Puede ser que la guerra baje su ´momentum´ esta semana o la próxima, como para decir que hay un proceso de negociación. Pero eso no quiere decir que el problema se vaya a resolver. Esto va para largo“, indicó.

Es la peor opción de Trump. El despliegue de más de 5000 marines en la zona del Golfo marca el preludio de lo que sería una invasión, posiblemente a la isla de Kharg, el mayor centro de producción de crudo de Irán en el estrecho de Ormuz.

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Se trata de un escenario preocupante para la dirigencia del Partido Republicano. Ningún aspirante a gobernador o congresista, o quienes buscan su reelección, quiere hacer campaña bajo ataúdes envueltos en la bandera estadounidense.

Cuáles son las exigencias de Estados Unidos

El documento de 15 puntos, o exigencias de la Casa Blanca, llegó a la capital iraní vía Pakistán, un aliado militar de Arabia Saudita y uno de los países atacados por Irán.

Según el sitio N12 News de Israel, Estados Unidos está considerando declarar un alto el fuego de un mes para celebrar negociaciones.

El contenido total del plan no trascendió, pero medios estadounidenses y el Canal 12 israelí puntualizaron que incluye:

• Un alivio de sanciones.
• Cooperación nuclear civil.
• La entrega del uranio enriquecido.
• Límites a las actividades nucleares.
• Supervisión por parte de la Agencia Internacional de Energía Atómica.
• Restricciones a misiles balísticos.
• Garantías para el acceso al transporte marítimo a través del Estrecho de Ormuz.
• El fin del respaldo a los grupos proxy de la región, como el Hezbollah libanés o el Hamas palestino.

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En contrapartida, Estados Unidos levantaría las sanciones internacionales y apoyaría un programa nuclear civil.

“Si Irán no entiende que ha sido derrotado militarmente y que seguirá siéndolo, Trump se asegurará de que reciba golpes más duros que cualquiera que haya recibido antes. El presidente no fanfarronea y está preparado para desatar el infierno. Irán no debería equivocarse de nuevo”, dijo la vocera de la Casa Blanca, Karoline Leavitt.

Cuál fue la respuesta de Irán

Irán rechazó las exigencias de Trump como “inaceptables” y respondió con un plan de cinco puntos, según una fuente citada por el gubernamental Press TV. El detalle es el siguiente:

• Cese total de las “agresiones y asesinatos” por parte de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán.
• El fin de los combates en todos los frentes en los que participen grupos aliados (como Hezbollah en el Líbano y las milicias proiraníes en Irak).
• El pago de reparaciones de guerra.
• Garantías contra futuros conflictos.
• Reconocimiento de la soberanía de Irán sobre el estrecho de Ormuz como “un derecho natural y legal de Irán”.

The Wall Street Journal agregó otra exigencia: el desmantelamiento de las bases estadounidenses en el Golfo.

“Irán pondrá fin a la guerra cuando lo decida y cuando se cumplan sus condiciones. No se celebrarán negociaciones antes de ese momento”, concluyó la fuente.

The man reportedly being floated by the Trump administration as a possible interlocutor with Iran is also one of the regime’s most hardline figures — Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The longtime Revolutionary Guards commander is widely described by experts as a loyal «yes man,» with a record of threats against the United States and deep ties to the system’s inner circle.

That contradiction underscores the central question facing U.S. policymakers: Even if Washington is speaking to the «right people,» as President Donald Trump has claimed, can someone like Ghalibaf actually deliver?

«Ghalibaf doesn’t have an independent line. His strength is that he is a ‘yes man,’» said Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies. He added, «If he is told to shake hands with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, he will do it. If he is told to escalate, he will. It is not about moderation, it is about who gives the orders.»

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Regime Insider 

Ghalibaf, 64, is a product of Iran’s security establishment.

He rose through the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during the Iran-Iraq War, eventually becoming commander of the IRGC air force.

«He even completed flight training abroad, which was not unusual at the time, with France reportedly assisting at one stage. Until recently, he was still conducting training flights in France,» said Sabti.

He later served as Iran’s national police chief, overseeing internal security forces responsible for suppressing protests, including the 1999 student uprising, alongside Qassem Soleimani.

After transitioning into politics, Ghalibaf attempted to run for president multiple times but failed. He instead built his career through loyalty to the system, serving as Tehran’s mayor for more than a decade before becoming speaker of parliament in 2020.

«Ghalibaf went on to serve in senior national roles and is now speaker of parliament. He has consistently aligned himself with the supreme leader and follows directives rather than setting his own independent positions,» Sabti said.

«His name has also been linked to multiple corruption allegations, including misuse of oil revenues and sanctions evasion networks involving his family. His sons have reportedly been involved and are under sanctions,» Sabti said, adding, «There have also been public scandals involving family members traveling abroad and making luxury purchases, including widely circulated images of them arriving with numerous high-end Gucci suitcases.»

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Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf listens as parliament members chant in support of the IRGC in Tehran, Iran, Feb 1, 2026. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/West Asia News Agency/Handout via Reuters)

Limited Authority

Ghalibaf’s wartime statements reflect a hardening tone inside Iran’s leadership.

He has rejected ceasefire terms, declaring Iran would continue fighting «until the enemy truly regrets its aggression.»

He has also warned that attacks on Iranian infrastructure would trigger retaliation across the region, including against energy targets.

At the same time, he has publicly denied any negotiations with the United States, calling reports of talks «fake news» and accusing Washington of manipulating markets.

In remarks aired on Iranian television on Jan. 12, 2026, he warned that U.S. forces would face catastrophic consequences if they confronted Iran. «Come, so you can see what catastrophe befalls American bases, ships and forces,» he said, adding that American troops would be «burned by the fire of Iran’s defenders.»

In the same remarks, broadcast and translated by MEMRI, he described the U.S. president as «delusional and arrogant,» and framed Iran’s ideology as a growing global movement.

More recently, he escalated further. He warned that «the blood of American soldiers is the personal responsibility of Trump,» and vowed Iran would «settle accounts with the Americans and Israelis,» adding that «Trump and Netanyahu crossed our red lines and will pay the price.»

He has also threatened retaliation against regional energy infrastructure, signaling a willingness to expand the conflict beyond direct military confrontation.

Not the Decision-Maker

«He’s considered relatively moderate in the current Iranian context, but he’s not the one calling the shots. He’s not the leader himself,» Danny Citrinowicz, Middle East, national security and intelligence expert, told Fox News Digital, adding that Ghalibaf may serve as a channel to Iran’s leadership, but not as the ultimate authority.

«If you want to speak to someone in Iran, he’s probably the point of contact,» he said. «But he’s not deciding anything. Even if he wants to do something, he has to get approval from the IRGC and the supreme leadership.»

Sabti said, «Some point to periods during Rouhani’s presidency when he appeared to align with Rouhani and describe him as somewhat moderate, but that is misleading.»

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A man lights a cigarette with fire from a burning picture of Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as Israelis rally in support of the nationwide protests happening in Iran, in Holon, Israel, Jan. 14, 2026. (Ammar Awad/Reuters)

A System That Makes Deals Harder

Analysts say the bigger issue is not Ghalibaf himself, but the system he operates within.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said: «Those who see the ascendance of someone like Ghalibaf, who is an IRGC veteran, as extending power outside his traditional civilian role have missed how personality, not profession, has been the driving force in Iranian politics for decades. Those who focus on IRGC backgrounds in the Supreme National Security Council may also overlook that recent secretaries — Shamkhani, Larijani and Ahmadian — all had IRGC backgrounds.»

«The system today is more radicalized and decentralized,» Citrinowicz agreed. «It’s not one person. It’s multiple actors you need to coordinate with, which makes it much harder to negotiate.»

«I’m not saying it’s impossible, because this is still the Middle East, but it will be very difficult to reach an agreement with them, let alone one that reflects the same demands the U.S. was making before the war. There is no way they are going to agree to that,» he added.

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A billboard depicting Iran’s supreme leaders is displayed above a highway in Tehran on March 10, 2026. (AFP/Via Getty Images)

Citrinowicz said the regime sees themselves as prevailing. «From Iran’s perspective, they are winning, not losing. They are using their strategic capabilities and effectively threatening a choke point in the global economy, namely the Strait of Hormuz. That only reinforces the radicalization taking place inside the regime. Under those conditions, they will be the ones making demands of Trump, not the other way around.»

Even if talks were to take place, he said, Ghalibaf would not be able to commit Iran without broader approval.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said Iran could have hit Washington, D.C., and other major U.S. cities with intermediate-range ballistic missiles through proxies in Venezuela if the administration had not intervened in both countries.

Speaking at the CERAWeek oil and energy conference in Houston on Wednesday, Burgum pushed back on the narrative that Iran and Venezuela do not represent an imminent threat to the U.S. and global supply chains. He said the threat was demonstrated by Iran’s attempt to strike the U.S. military base Diego Garcia in the central Indian Ocean, more than 2,000 miles from the Middle Eastern country.

«That means, you know, Venezuela was a hotbed of Iranian-funded terror groups, including Hamas. If there was an Iranian ballistic missile placed in Venezuela, it could not just reach Houston; it can reach Washington, D.C.,» said Burgum.

«So, again, the actions that the United States is taking to make the world safer is lowering the risk premium that I think was missing from the [oil and energy] market. Because, maybe, the market wasn’t recognizing the risk.»

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Burgum accused Iran, whose government he said is in shambles following intense U.S.-Israeli bombardment, of lying to the world about its missile capability.

«They said during negotiations last year, they told the international agencies, they said it right before the negotiations broke down, ‘Oh, don’t worry, we could only go 1,200 miles.’ And then they launched two missiles at Diego Garcia at 2,400 miles. That means they can hit London,» he explained.

The Islamic Republic of Iran escalated its conflict with the U.S. by launching two intermediate-range ballistic missiles Friday toward Diego Garcia, a key U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean. Targeting Diego Garcia, roughly 2,500 miles from Iran, suggests Tehran’s missile capabilities may exceed previously acknowledged limits.

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Interior Secretary Doug Burgum speaks after meeting with Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodriguez at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas on March 4, 2026. (Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images)

Houston, where Burgum was speaking, is roughly 2,200 miles from Venezuela, while the nation’s capital is just over 2,000 miles away, placing both cities within range of intermediate-range ballistic missiles fired from Venezuela. Other major U.S. cities within range include Miami, roughly 1,300 miles away; New York City, about 2,100 miles; and possibly Chicago, slightly more than 2,600 miles.

On Jan. 3, Trump launched a covert military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Burgum said that, because of the administration’s military action, Venezuela is no longer a serious missile threat to the U.S. and is now a potentially significant oil and energy partner.

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President Donald Trump with military members after the capture of Venezuela’s Maduro in January. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

The secretary said that during a recent trip to Venezuela with oil executives, interim President Delcy Rodríguez signaled the country has the capacity and is eager for U.S. investment in developing its oil and gas reserves.

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«The resources there are quite amazing,» he said. «And from that trip we did… we were able to bring home $100 million of gold, physically, the gold, to bring back for U.S. refiners for commercial and consumer purposes. So, the level of cooperation is going.»