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La guerra sacude al Líbano: evacuaron el sur de Beirut y se intensifican los ataques entre Israel y Hezbollah

El Líbano se convirtió en el segundo frente de la guerra en Medio Oriente.
Mientras merma la intensidad de los ataques iraníes a Israel, su grupo proxy libanés, el movimiento armado chiíta Hezbollah, intensificó su ofensiva sobre territorio israelí a través del lanzamiento de misiles.
Leé también: Los kurdos quieren combatir a los ayatollah: contactos con la CIA y el riesgo de una guerra civil en Irán
En represalia, el ejército de Israel bombardeó distintos puntos del país y ordenó evacuar el distrito de Dahiyeh, en el sur de Beirut y bastión de las milicias islámicas, mientras sus soldados entraron en territorio libanés para crear una “zona tapón” en la frontera. Este jueves se produjo un masivo éxodo de la población de la periferia sur de la capital.
Hezbollah es el único aliado militar de Irán que está participando activamente en la guerra que enfrenta a Teherán contra Israel y Estados Unidos y que involucra a más de una docena de países.
Los hutíes yemeníes se mantienen por ahora al margen, mientras las milicias chiítas proiraníes de Siria e Irak no se caracterizan por tener un gran poderío militar.
Qué poder de fuego mantienen las milicias de Hezbollah
Hezbollah (Partido de Dios) es un movimiento político legalizado que creó un poderoso ejército paralelo con enorme control e influencia de la vida política, económica y militar del Líbano. Es en la práctica un Estado dentro del Estado libanés.
Su estructura castrense fue financiada y armada por Irán en las últimas décadas, pero su poderío militar quedó reducido tras dos años de guerra con Israel, en solidaridad con los palestinos de Gaza. Sin embargo, todavía mantiene activos a decenas de miles de combatientes.
Los libaneses buscan salir de la periferia sur de Beirut bajo amenaza de ataque israelí. (Foto: REUTERS/Claudia Greco)
“No está claro qué poder de fuego retuvo Hezbollah. Obviamente ha estado disparando (misiles y cohetes) contra Israel pero no ha provocado daños significativos por lo que sabemos hasta ahora”, dijo a TN el analista David Wood, especialista en temas del Líbano con base en Beirut del Crisis Group, una ONG encargada de la resolución de conflictos.
Según el experto, “siempre es posible que Hezbollah todavía tenga armas pesadas como misiles de precisión guiada que no usaron en la ultima escalada masiva en 2024, si es que todavía tiene esas armas, lo que no está claro”.
Leé también: Error de cálculo o mecanismo de provocación: los motivos detrás del inesperado ataque de Irán a Turquía
“Tampoco está claro si Hezbollah tiene la capacidad de usarlas. Tal vez las personas estrenadas para usar estas armas complejas murieron (en la anterior guerra). Entonces, no está claro si Hezbollah todavía tiene esas armas y, si es así, si tiene la capacidad para usarlas”, afirmó.
Qué está pasando hoy en el Líbano
Desde el estallido de la guerra y la entrada de Hezbollah en el conflicto, el ministerio de Salud libanés, que no responde al grupo islámico, contabliza 102 muertos y 638 heridos. Los desplazados ascienden a más de 83.000.
El gobierno libanés del primer ministro Nawaf Salam, en el que Hezbollah no participa directamente pero mantiene ministros cercanos a su alianza parlamentaria con el movimiento Amal, teme que el número de víctimas aumente en forma exponencial en los próximos días. Éxodo masivo de libaneses en el sur de Beirut, bastión de Hezbollah (Foto: REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi)
Israel ordenó este jueves evacuar todos los suburbios del sur de Beirut, el mayor bastión de Hezbollah en el país. “Salven sus vidas y evacuen sus viviendas de inmediato”, advirtió un portavoz militar,
La orden provocó una virtual estampida de la población, temerosa de ser víctima de un bombardeo masivo de la fuerza aérea israelí. El pánico provocó embotellamientos interminables en las principales salidas del sur de la capital.
De hecho, el ministro de Finanzas israelí, el ultraderechista Bezalel Smotrich, advirtió que el distrito sur de Beirut se enfrentará a una devastación similar a la de Gaza.
“Muy pronto, Dahiyeh se parecerá a Jan Yunis”, aseguró Smotrich, al aludir de la localidad de la Franja de Gaza reducida a escombros durante la guerra en ese enclave palestino. “Hezbollah cometió un grave error y pagará un alto precio. Estamos atacando la cabeza del pulpo en Irán y, al mismo tiempo, cortaremos el brazo de Hezbollah”, dijo durante su visita a la frontera norte de Israel.
Leé también: Qué quiere Trump en Irán: la nueva estrategia “venezolana” y una alternativa islámica alineada con EE.UU.
En las últimas 48 horas, los ataques afectaron partes del territorio libanés más allá de las zonas comúnmente asociadas con Hezbollah, alertó el medio estadounidense The Media Line, especializado en temas de Medio Oriente.
Según el reporte, las fuerzas israelíes atacaron el valle de la Bekaa, de fuerte presencia del grupo islámico, pero también las zonas de Baabda, Aramoun (en el distrito de Aley) y Saadiyat (en Shouf), zonas con mayor población drusa.
Israel ordenó también la evacuación de más de 50 pueblos y ciudades libanesas fronterizas para crear una línea de seguridad en el sur del Líbano. En tanto, las milicias de Hezbollah se atribuyeron ofensivas contra fuerzas terrestres israelíes y 13 ataques contra Israel el martes.
En las últimas horas, el grupo islámico reivindicó además el lanzamiento de cohetes y drones suicidas contra ciudades israelíes, como Tel Aviv y Haifa.
Israel, Líbano, Irán, Donald Trump
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Modern Love: Un apagón hizo que lo nuestro fuera posible
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Pope Leo says he ‘can’t comment’ on 20-year sentence of Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai

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Pope Leo XIV this week said he «can’t» comment on the 20-year sentence imposed on a democracy activist in Hong Kong.
«I can’t comment,» the American-born Leo told EWTN News, which covers Catholic news globally, while speaking to reporters in Italy.
He added, «Let’s pray for less hatred and more peace and work for authentic dialogue. God bless you all.»
Hong Kong publisher and democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who is a converted Catholic, was sentenced to 20 years by Beijing last month for violating their 2020 national security law, which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called «unjust and tragic.»
Pope Leo XIV this week said he «can’t» comment on the 20-year sentence imposed on a democracy activist in Hong Kong. (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images; Anthony Kwan/Getty Images)
«The conviction shows the world that Beijing will go to extraordinary lengths to silence those who advocate fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong,» Rubio said in a statement. «The United States urges the authorities to grant Mr. Lai humanitarian parole.»
The 78-year-old founded the now-closed Hong Kong-based Apple Daily in 1995, while the island was still under British rule.
Lai’s sentence closed one of the country’s most consequential national security cases since Beijing imposed the sweeping new law in 2020 in the wake of months-long anti-Chinese Communist Party protests in 2019, which were sparked by fears Beijing was eroding Hong Kong’s promised autonomy.

Lai has already been in custody since 2020. (Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images)
They were followed by a sweeping security crackdown that criminalized dissent and reshaped the city’s legal system.
CHINA PHONY CONVICTION OF JIMMY LAI IS A WARNING
Lai had been arrested several times during the 2019 protests, and he was detained at his home in 2020. His newspaper was also raided at the time and closed.
He was found guilty in December of attempting to undermine national security.

Jimmy Lai supporters in Los Angeles last month. (Apu Gomes/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump said in December that he had personally urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to release Lai.
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«I spoke to President Xi about it, and I asked to consider his release,» Trump said. «He’s not well, he’s an older man, and he’s not well, so I did put that request out. We’ll see what happens.»
pope leo xiv,china,world,hong kong
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After the strikes, how would the US secure Iran’s enriched uranium?

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When War Secretary Pete Hegseth was asked recently whether U.S. forces would ever move to secure enriched uranium reportedly stored at Iran’s Isfahan nuclear complex, he declined to say, citing operational security.
The exchange highlighted a question the U.S. and Israel’s air campaign alone cannot answer: even if U.S. strikes degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, who would physically secure the enriched uranium, and how?
Iran is believed to possess a significant stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, near weapons-grade. That material could theoretically be used in multiple nuclear devices if further refined.
Moving from 60% to weapons-grade 90% enrichment requires additional processing, and weaponization would involve further technical steps. But analysts say the more immediate issue is physical control of the material itself.
«If the U.S. wants to secure Iran’s nuclear materials, it’s going to require a massive ground operation,» Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told Fox News Digital.
Davenport said the highly enriched uranium believed to be stored at Isfahan appears to be deeply buried and contained in relatively mobile canisters. Securing it would likely require locating the full stockpile, accessing underground facilities and safely extracting or downblending the material.
Satellite imagery taken on Jan. 30, 2026 shows a new roof over a previously destroyed building at the Natanz nuclear site. (2026 PLANET LABS PBC/Handout via Reuters)
«It’s not even clear the United States knows where all of the uranium is,» she said, noting that the mobility of storage containers raises the possibility that some material could be moved or dispersed.
The administration repeatedly has said preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains a central objective of Operation Epic Fury.
«Ultimately, this issue of Iran’s nuclear pursuit and their unwillingness through negotiations to stop it is something President Trump has said for a long time needs to be dealt with,» Hegseth said.
Senior administration officials have argued that Iran sought to build up its ballistic missile arsenal in part to create a deterrent shield — enabling Tehran to continue advancing its nuclear program while discouraging outside intervention.
So far, however, the bulk of U.S. strikes have focused on degrading missile launchers, air defenses and other conventional military targets.
Experts note that dismantling missile systems may reduce Iran’s ability to shield a potential nuclear breakout. But physically controlling enriched uranium itself presents a separate and more complex challenge.

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
Airstrikes versus physical control
Defense officials have acknowledged that degrading nuclear infrastructure from the air is different from safely managing or securing nuclear material.
Airstrikes can destroy centrifuges, power systems and support buildings. But enriched uranium stored underground may remain intact unless it is physically secured, removed or verifiably downblended.
Striking or extracting nuclear material also carries safety risks that military planners must weigh.
If storage casks containing uranium hexafluoride gas were compromised, the material could pose chemical toxicity risks to personnel entering the site without proper protective equipment. Analysts say a conventional strike is unlikely to trigger a nuclear detonation, but dispersal of material could create localized hazards and complicate recovery efforts.
Chuck DeVore, a former Reagan-era defense official who worked on nuclear issues, argued that directly targeting the stockpile may not be a priority under current battlefield conditions.
«You don’t want to release the material into the surrounding areas and cause radioactive contamination,» DeVore said, adding that deeply buried facilities are difficult to reach from the air.
DeVore also downplayed the immediacy of a breakout scenario, arguing that further enrichment, weaponization and delivery would be difficult to execute undetected amid sustained U.S. air operations.
Even if Iran were able to further enrich uranium, he said, assembling a deliverable weapon under active military pressure would present significant technical and operational hurdles.

Trump said that the United States completed a «very successful» strike against Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, saying that Iran’s nuclear enrichment installations have been «obliterated.» (Fox News)
Still, DeVore acknowledged that long-term control of the uranium would ultimately require a political resolution inside Iran and some form of outside oversight.
What would securing it require?
Nonproliferation experts say securing enriched uranium generally involves more than military force. It requires verified accounting of the material, sustained access to storage sites and either removal or downblending to lower enrichment levels suitable for civilian use.
Davenport said internationally monitored downblending would be the safest option if political conditions allow.
«The IAEA remains the best place to go back into Iran to monitor the sites, to try to track down and account for the enriched uranium,» she said, describing downblending as a relatively straightforward technical process compared to attempting to extract and transport highly enriched material in a contested environment.
Both pathways — physical seizure or internationally monitored reduction — depend on conditions that do not currently exist.
Administration officials argue that dismantling Iran’s missile network weakens Iran’s ability to shield a nuclear breakout and reduces the immediate threat to U.S. forces and regional allies.
But suppressing missiles and controlling enriched uranium are separate challenges.
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Destroying infrastructure can slow or disrupt a program. Physically locating, accounting for and securing nuclear material requires sustained access, reliable intelligence and — ultimately — political conditions that allow it.
For now, the administration maintains that Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. How the enriched uranium itself would be secured remains a question without a public answer.
war with iran,iran,nuclear proliferation,nuclear disasters
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