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Los escenarios de un cónclave marcado por el secretismo: de las chances de un primer papa africano a la opción del «Francisco asiático»

El cónclave que elegirá al sucesor de Francisco tendrá la compleja misión de marcar el rumbo futuro de la Iglesia católica tras 12 años de un pontificado histórico.
Hay varios posibles caminos que se bifurcan en el cuerpo cardenalicio: mantener el progresismo que inició Jorge Bergoglio; profundizar esa senda reformista con la elección de otro papa no europeo, quizás africano o asiático del mismo perfil; buscar un consenso, una especie de transición con una figura moderada que equilibre las luchas internas, o dar un brusco giro de 180 grados con el regreso a un conservadurismo clásico.
Leé también: Miles de fieles le dan el último adiós al papa Francisco en la Basílica de San Pedro
“Hay varias cosas que se analizan y piensan en un cónclave. Hay muchas aristas y claves: la cuestión pastoral, ideológica, la lucha conservadora-progresista y el peso que tiene el papa anterior. Esas son las variables principales”, dijo a TN el periodista y escritor Marcelo Larraquy, autor de dos libros sobre el papa Francisco, “Recen por él” y “Código Francisco”.
¿La hora de África?
En Italia ya se comienza a hablar de un papa italiano. El último fue Juan Pablo I con su efímero papado de 33 días en 1978.
Desde entonces han pasado dos europeos (Juan Pablo II, polaco; Benedicto XVI, alemán, y un sudamericano de ascendencia italiana, Francisco). La pregunta es si ya es hora de que la Iglesia mire hacia otro continente. El cónclave tendrá la difícil de misión de marcar el rumbo de la Iglesia católica (Foto: EFE)
Algunos cardenales ya lo esbozan en voz alta. “El resultado del cónclave podría traer algunas sorpresas. El papa Francisco fue una sorpresa, no estaba en los pronósticos. Y fue una hermosa sorpresa”, dijo el arzobispo de San Pablo, cardenal Odilo Scherer.
Para el purpurado brasileño, el nuevo pontífice podría venir de un lugar inesperado. “No me sorprendería que el nuevo Papa viniera de un continente distinto a Europa o América. La Iglesia Católica está en todo el mundo”, dijo a la radio CBN.
Leé también: Reformistas vs. conservadores: quiénes son los candidatos con más posibilidades de suceder a Francisco
Larraquy cree que el progresismo, en teoría, tiene ventaja en el futuro cónclave. ¿El motivo? Francisco dejó la vara muy alta. “La agenda climática, la agenda 2030 de la ONU y el posicionamiento a favor de los migrantes no son posturas conservadoras. ¿Podríamos tener un papa que avale las razzias de Trump contra los inmigrantes en Estados Unidos?“, se preguntó.
Africanos conservadores o un asiático con proyección hacia China
En ese escenario, crecen las voces que señalan la posibilidad de un “papa africano”, el primero de la historia.
“Es muy difícil volver atrás con la popularidad que tuvo este papa que abandonó el estilo de la Iglesia de Ratzinger. Pero los africanos son muy conservadores. No veo que tengan la apertura del papa”, dijo Larraquy.
Leé también: Club Atlético Papa Francisco: el sueño que nació en plena pandemia y hoy salva vidas en Villa Soldati
Una variable podría ser un “papa asiático”. Aquí todas las miradas apuntan al filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, de perfil progresista y cercano al pensamiento inclusivo de Francisco. El cardenal filipino Luis Antonio Tagle (Foto: Reuters/Guglielmo Mangiapane)
“Esto permitiría una proyección hacia China, que es el gran objetivo de la Iglesia. Es algo que está muy pensado”, dijo Larraquy.
La opción sería el italiano Pietro Parolin, secretario de Estado del Vaticano, un hábil negociador y considerado un moderado entre los cardenales con derecho a voto. “Parolin está muy atento a China”, detalló el periodista.
Quiénes son los cardenales africanos “papables”
En ese universo de 33 cardenales africanos solo un puñado es visto como “papable”. La mayoría tiene un marcado perfil conservador. Ellos son:
- Fridolin Ambongo (Congo). El arzobispo de Kinshasa, de 65 años, fue nombrado cardenal por Francisco en 2019. Integra el Consejo de Cardenales, un grupo cercano a Francisco, aunque es considerado un tradicionalista. Por ejemplo, rechazó las bendiciones a parejas del mismo sexo impulsadas por Bergoglio. Según dijo, las “uniones de personas del mismo sexo son intrínsecamente malas”.
El cardenal Fridolin Amongo Besungu se retira tras recibir la birreta roja de tres picos del papa Francisco durante un consistorio en la Basílica de San Pedro, en el Vaticano, el 5 de octubre de 2019 (Foto de archivo: AP)
- Robert Sarah (Guinea). A los 79 años, es el ex jefe de la oficina de liturgia del Vaticano. Es conocido por sus posturas conservadoras y, bajo ese posicionamiento, calificó de “herejía” las bendiciones a parejas del mismo sexo. Ha alertado en varias ocasiones sobre “la amenaza” del islam.
El cardenal Robert Sarah asiste a la presentación del libro del cardenal Raymond Leo Burke, «El amor divino hecho carne», en Roma, el 14 de octubre de 2015. (Foto AP/Andrew Medichini, Archivo)
- Peter Ebere Okpaleke (Nigeria). De 62 años, es sabida su cercanía con Francisco, aunque con un perfil más moderado y de centro. Fue nombrado canciller por Benedicto XVI. Las trabas impuestas por su país le impidieron asumir el cargo hasta el pontificado de Bergoglio.

Peter Ebere Okpaleke, cardenal nigeriano (Foto: cortesía/National Catholic Center)
- Peter Turkson (Ghana). Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson tiene 76 años. Posee un perfil progresista. Hasta 2021, estuvo encargado del Dicasterio para el Servicio del Desarrollo Humano Integral. Posee amplia experiencia en el Vaticano. Su trabajo estuvo centrado en áreas como la justicia social, la ecología y el desarrollo humano integral.
En este marco, las posibilidades de tener un “papa africano” se inclinan más hacia el conservadurismo clásico que al reformismo de Francisco. Habrá que ver hacia dónde decanta la balanza del cuerpo de cardenales para saber si el nuevo pontífice vendrá de una región nueva, repetirá en América Latina o regresará finalmente a Europa.
Papa Francisco, Vaticano
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DHS shutdown drags into week two as Iran threat, SOTU clash complicate Hill talks

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A government shutdown, big or small, is usually a front-and-center issue for lawmakers — but the most recent partial closure could be put on the back burner as Congress returns to several issues in Washington.
Senate Democrats and the White House are still at odds over funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), as the shutdown dragged into its tenth day. Neither side is budging, with the most recent concrete action coming early last week.
Trump, who proved pivotal in striking a funding truce with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., in January, was not directly involved in recent negotiations.
‘TARIFFS SUCK’: SOME REPUBLICANS PRIVATELY CELEBRATE AS SUPREME COURT BLOCKS TRUMP POLICY
President Donald Trump has not had any «direct conversations or correspondence» with congressional Democrats recently. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press )
Trump has not had any «direct conversations or correspondence» with congressional Democrats recently, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, noting that the White House and its representatives have been handling the dialogue.
«But, of course, Democrats are the reason that the Department of Homeland Security is currently shut down,» she said. «They have chosen to act against the American people for political reasons.»
Senate Democrats offered a counter to the White House’s own counterproposal, which quickly was rejected as «unserious» by Leavitt. It’s a peculiar instance, given that this is the third shutdown during Trump’s second term, and neither side appears to be in a particular rush to end it.
DEMOCRATS RISK FEMA DISASTER FUNDING COLLAPSE AS DHS SHUTDOWN HITS DAY 5

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and his caucus have not relented in their position as DHS enters its tenth day of being shut down. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital that there’s «some room for give and take» in the negotiations, but remained firm in the GOP’s positioning against requiring Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents from getting judicial warrants, unmasking or other reforms sought by Democrats that could increase risks for agents in the field.
«I felt like, you know, the last offer the White House put out there was a really — it was a good faith one, and it was clear to me that they’re attempting, in every way, to try and land this thing so we can get DHS funded,» Thune said.
Funding the agency will be a top priority for the upper chamber, but they’ll be delayed because of winter storms descending on the East Coast. The weather has caused the Senate to delay a vote on the original DHS spending bill until Tuesday night, ahead of Trump’s State of the Union address.
There are other issues that could get in the way of hashing out a deal, including a possible conflict with Iran and Trump’s desire to move ahead with tariffs without congressional approval.
GOP WARNS DEMOCRATS USING DHS SHUTDOWN TO STALL SENATE VOTER ID PUSH

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., warned that Senate Democrats were trying to tie up Republicans from hitting the campaign trail ahead of the pivotal 2026 midterm cycle. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Trump told reporters Friday that he was «considering» a limited military strike against Iran, which already has riled up some in Congress, who are demanding that lawmakers get a say on whether the U.S. strikes.
Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said in a statement that he has a war powers resolution to block an attack on Iran filed and ready, and challenged his colleagues to vote against it.
«If some of my colleagues support war, then they should have the guts to vote for the war and to be held accountable by their constituents, rather than hiding under their desks,» Kaine said.
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On the heels of the Supreme Court’s ruling to torpedo his sweeping duties, Trump is considering bypassing Congress to move ahead with another set of global 10% tariffs.
That comes as some Republicans are quietly celebrating the end of the duties, and others are open to working with the administration on a path forward for trade policy.
On tariffs, a Republican aide told Fox News that the GOP was «waiting to see what POTUS does next.»
«The State of the Union should be interesting,» they said.
politics,senate,government shutdown,homeland security
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Tourists trapped in Puerto Vallarta recount cartel retaliation after El Mencho killed

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Following the reported killing of major cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, known as El Mencho, multiple American tourists vacationing in Puerto Vallarta told Fox News Digital they unexpectedly found themselves in the middle of a violent cartel retaliation.
As airlines canceled flights and authorities issued shelter-in-place orders, stranded visitors reported cars set ablaze, suspected cartel members blocking major roads, and stores ransacked by looters — scenes some witnesses said made parts of the popular resort city feel like «a war breaking out in the streets.»
Witnesses said they were forced to evacuate their rooms, manage with limited hotel food, and even venture outside in search of meals while waiting for Mexican authorities to regain control of the city.
Staying at an Airbnb near a main road, Eugene Marchenko, 37, of Charleston, South Carolina, told Fox News Digital he woke up to blaring horns and saw six cars completely engulfed in flames just outside his balcony. He and his wife, who had arrived in Mexico only a day earlier, were forced to evacuate for several hours, fearing that a nearby fuel tanker, also ablaze, could explode.
MAJOR DRUG LORD ‘EL MENCHO’ KILLED IN MEXICAN MILITARY OPERATION WITH U.S. INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT
«I looked down and they’re completely engulfed in flames,» Marchenko said. «It was six cars in total that burned and one fuel tanker.»
He said he watched a neighbor’s video showing men he believed to be cartel members forcing people out of their vehicles, then pouring gasoline and setting the cars on fire.
«They told the people to leave,» Marchenko said. «Then they were taking the gas and pouring the gas on the vehicle and waiting until everybody was clear before they were setting it on fire.»
Later in the afternoon, Marchenko ventured out to find food and said he saw pharmacies and corner stores completely burned down, adding that younger crowds had broken into nearby buildings to loot beer and cigarettes.
CARTELS OUTGUN POLICE: ROCKET LAUNCHERS SEIZED IN EL MENCHO RAID SPOTLIGHT CJNG FIREPOWER
Vehicles appear to carry multiple armed forces in Puerto Vallarta. (Fox News Digital)
Videos obtained by Fox News Digital show a helicopter hovering above his building, circling as if searching for someone, while Mexican armed forces and armored vehicles moved through the streets below.
Public transportation and Ubers had come to a complete halt, Marchenko added, saying that even if flights resume, he is unsure how they would reach the airport.
Despite the chaos, Marchenko noted that no one appeared to panic.
«There’s definitely not any panic from almost nobody here,» he said. «I think it’s interesting, almost everybody was just annoyed more than anything.»
SOCCER MATCHES POSTPONED AFTER MEXICO KILLS CARTEL LEADER ‘EL MENCHO’ NEAR WORLD CUP HOST

A plume of smoke rises in Puerto Vallarta on Feb. 22, 2026. (Fox News Digital)
Adriana Belli, 49, another visitor from Miami, told Fox News Digital that she had planned to spend over a week in Mexico to attend a wedding in Guadalajara and celebrate a friend’s birthday in Mexico City.
Belli said the sudden outbreak of violence was especially shocking, noting that she had spoken with American tourists staying at her Marriott resort who insisted the area was extremely safe after visiting Puerto Vallarta for 24 years.
She added that guests who had gone to the airport were under lockdown and were managing with the limited food available.
«A lot of the other tourists who had early morning flights were actually able to get to the airport, but they are now locked down in the airport and unable to leave,» she said. «So what we heard from other guests is they are just sort of surviving off of granola bars.»

A fuel tanker was set ablaze near a gas station in Puerto Vallarta on Feb. 22, 2026. (Fox News Digital)
Another source staying at a separate resort told Fox News Digital that restaurants and room service had been shut down. Guests were brought to the lobby for what was described as «the last bit of food.»
He added that this was the first trip where he and his wife were away from their 4-year-old son, and that he had to call home to tell family members where to find their will.
«This is the first time we’ve ever been away from him. My wife was saying, ‘We’re never leaving him again,’» he said. «I had to call my mom today and, you know, just tell her, ‘Look, here’s where my will is. We just created this. I don’t want you to panic, but I may need you to stay a couple days extra with my son.’»
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He added that, despite the area appearing like a war zone, he is remaining optimistic that the authorities will restore order in the coming days.
Mexico’s Defense Department said Sunday that Oseguera was killed in a military operation. The news reportedly triggered widespread unrest and uncertainty across multiple states as Mexican authorities worked to stabilize the region.
location mexico,mexican cartel violence,world,latin america
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Afirman que Nahuel Gallo está en huelga de hambre total: no come ni toma agua

ECONOMIA2 días agoVillarruel cuestionó la apertura de importaciones: «Sin industria, se pasa a depender de China»
POLITICA2 días ago“Ahora es la hora de jugarse”: el mensaje de Patricia Bullrich a los empresarios tras aprobarse la reforma laboral
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