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Midterm elections are as unpredictable as ever, as 2026 looms
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«Everything changes everything» – Late Baltimore Orioles’ Hall of Fame Manager Earl Weaver
Determining the political landscape for next year’s midterm elections may prove to be impossible.
At least right now.
Midterms have become increasingly challenging to decipher in recent cycles. A learned, Democratic Capitol Hill hand told me after the historic, 63-seat bloodletting by House Democrats in 2010 that the election was «un-modellable.»
Midterms are usually a problem for the party of the President.
NEW RNC CHAIR JOE GRUTERS VOWS TO ‘RIDE THE PRESIDENT ALL THE WAY TO VICTORY’ IN MIDTERMS
That said, Democrats only lost a few House seats in 1962 – immediately following the Cuban Missile Crisis – which nearly brought the U.S. and Soviet Union to nuclear blows.
Democrats lost a staggering 47 House seats in 1966 – the first and only midterm of late President Lyndon Johnson. But the electoral rapture barely dented the robust House majority. Democrats controlled 295 House seats before the 1966 midterms. 248 seats afterwards. Still a comfortable margin.
Very few political observers expected Democrats to lose control of the House in the legendary 1994 midterms – mainly because the party held the House for 40 consecutive years. It was nearly unthinkable that Democrats could lose the House – simply because it had not happened in decades. Democrats and other political observers excoriated the brilliant Michael Barone when he was the lone commentator to forecast that a Republican flip of the House could be in the offing come the fall of 1994.
Barone was right, as Republicans collected 54 seats.
Republicans nearly lost control of the House in the 1998 midterms – after they impeached former President Clinton. Republicans then bested the historic norms in 2002 and held the House, boosted by pro-GOP sentiment following 9/11.
Democrats managed to win back the House in 2018 – following a similar playbook they deployed in 2006 when they also captured control of the House. Democrats ran a number of moderate ex-military or «national security» Democrats – often in battleground districts. The relative unpopularity of President Donald Trump didn’t help Republicans, either.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., boasted that Republicans may capture anywhere from 40-60 seats in the 2022 midterms. Republicans did win the House – but barely.
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS SUE TO STOP NEWSOM, DEMOCRATS FROM PUSHING REDISTRICTING PLAN
Which brings us to 2026.
The party of the President historically loses around 25 seats in their first midterm. Since President Trump is only the second commander in chief to return to office after a hiatus (late President Grover Cleveland was the first), 2026 serves as a de facto «first midterm.» Trump and the Republicans lost 41 House seats in 2018 – his true first midterm. But calculating what to expect next year is nearly impossible.
Republicans now hold a 219 to 212 majority in the House with four vacancies. Three of those seats are solidly Democratic – for now. So for the sake of argument, let’s say the breakdown is 220 to 215. Democrats must only flip a net of three seats to claim the majority.
It’s not that easy.
First off, we barely understand the 2026 playing field.
In baseball, it’s 90 feet between the bases. 60 feet, 6 inches to the pitcher’s mound. Major League Baseball even standardized the size of the dirt infield a couple of years ago.
As we head to the playoffs, we know the Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers are excellent. The New York Mets and New York Yankees should be really good., but they’ve stumbled. The Philadelphia Phillies are excellent – but just lost starting pitcher Zack Wheeler to a major injury. Who could surprise down the stretch? The Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals are hardly out of it. Everyone understands the general variables of Major League Baseball as October nears.
That is not the case with the 2026 midterms.
Texas Republicans are now determined to redraw Congressional districts to favor a GOP pickup of five seats. President Trump has endorsed similar efforts to tilt the field in favor of Republicans in GOP-strongholds like Missouri, Ohio and Indiana. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is threatening to upend the present maps in favor of Democrats in the Golden State. New York Democrats may try the same in the Empire State.
So, we don’t even know the basics. How far from the plate to the mound in the 2026 midterms? How large is the strike zone? Five balls for a walk or the standard four? Twelve players in the field or nine?
Redistricting could also hamper Republicans – forcing the party to suddenly defend a number of more competitive seats. Democrats could suddenly have more opportunities where none existed in 2024.
But we aren’t sure.
Maybe everything is status quo and Democrats only need to flip those three seats.
We also don’t know how the relative unpopularity of President Trump may impact voters. He historically defies political gravity. Plus, the Democratic brand remains utterly toxic. Party registration is down for the Democrats – big time.
POLITICAL ANALYST SAYS DEMOCRATS ARE ALREADY WORRIED ABOUT THE ‘BIG PROBLEM’ OF WINNING BACK VOTERS FOR 2028
That said, could Republicans reap the benefits of passing the hallmark of their legislative agenda – the One, Big, Beautiful Bill? Some conservatives doubt that the GOP has sufficiently sold the public on that legislation, especially during the August recess. Democrats are banking on the possibility that the legislation will backfire on the GOP in next year’s midterms. We also don’t know if President Trump not being on the ballot in 2026 is similar to the Republican midterm performance in 2018. It’s clear that not having Mr. Trump on the ballot in 2018 undercut the party at the polls.
Republicans could also face a backlash from moderates and swing voters if they are dissatisfied with the performance of the President. We certainly saw that after voters tired of the polices of former Presidents George H.W. Bush in 1990, Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2010.
And, we have an entire 15 months before voters head to the polls next year. There could be another foreign policy crisis involving the Middle East. Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are volatile. There are host of potential events – ranging from health policy to the economy which could set the table for the midterms.
Lots to consider.
It’s all in play.
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«Everything changes everything,» observed the sage Earl Weaver.
Or perhaps we should turn to New York Yankees legend Yogi Berra:
«In baseball, you don’t know nothing.»
politics,midterm elections,house of representatives politics
El Grupo Patio, considerado uno de los holdings inmobiliarios más destacados de Chile, atraviesa una grave crisis interna derivada de acusaciones de manipulación en la valoración de la compañía y la presentación de querellas por parte de accionistas y afectados.
La empresa, fundada a comienzos de los años 2000 por la familia Jalaff, cuenta con más de USD 4.000 millones en activos y opera en Chile, Perú, México y Estados Unidos. En los últimos años, el grupo se consolidó como un referente en el mercado inmobiliario latinoamericano.
La crisis actual se originó tras la aparición de actas de directorio que reflejan presuntas malas prácticas y decisiones cuestionables. Este conflicto, reportan medios locales, ha generado una crisis de confianza, que podría limitar el acceso a financiamiento y afectar la relación con acreedores y la percepción general del mercado.
El foco del conflicto se sitúa en la determinación del precio de la participación de Antonio Jalaff, uno de los fundadores, basada en un informe elaborado por la consultora Econsult.
Un grupo de 23 aportantes y herederos de la familia Jalaff presentaron acciones judiciales, argumentando que el informe fue solicitado y financiado por quienes buscaban adquirir esas acciones, dando lugar, según su denuncia, a una valoración artificialmente baja.
Para la querella no hay dudas de que dicho informe fue solicitado y financiado por los compradores, lo que habría resultado en una apreciación artificialmente deprimida del real valor de Grupo Patio.
Según la querella, el informe de Econsult “construyó una imagen económica distorsionada y artificialmente depreciada del Grupo Patio, generando una apariencia falsa sobre el estado financiero del conglomerado”.
A esto se añade, según la denuncia, la falta de transparencia en la metodología, generando cuestionamientos sobre la objetividad del valor fijado y un fuerte impacto en el fondo administrado por el holding.
En declaraciones recogidas por Diario Financiero, Antonio Jalaff manifestó su inquietud sobre el daño sufrido por la empresa y su propia reputación. “Aquí hay gente que ha hecho malas prácticas para inflar su trayectoria empresarial y su ego, a costa del daño económico a acreedores que confiaron en mí y en una compañía que fundé junto a mi padre”, afirmó.
Ante el 4º Juzgado de Garantía de Santiago, Antonio Jalaff presentó una querella por estafa. En ella sostiene que la venta de su participación se realizó bajo una “maquinación fraudulenta”. El perjuicio económico estimado alcanza las 700.000 UF (unos USD 28,5 millones), al haberse concretado la operación a un precio que describe como artificialmente disminuido.
Jalaff denunció: “No nos quedó otra opción. Fueron los compradores y sus asesores quienes impusieron el valor final de la venta, y nos vimos obligados a aceptarlo… nunca aprobé la venta a ese precio, sino que fui arrastrado por las circunstancias y los quórums de las respectivas sociedades”, afirmó entonces.
Álvaro Jalaff sostuvo una posición similar y acusó en El Mostrador, que otros accionistas buscaron aislar a su familia, facilitando el control hostil del grupo.
La operación fue estructurada por Larraín Vial, la mayor corredora de bolsa y firma de finanzas corporativas de Chile. Su historial reciente, que incluye otros escándalo de corrucpción conocido como el caso Factop, agrega presión reputacional al proceso.
Las repercusiones de este caso se extienden más allá del ámbito judicial, impactan la confianza en la gobernanza corporativa y la transparencia financiera dentro de los grandes conglomerados regionales. Los efectos, advierten medios locales, podrían convertirse en un precedente para la gestión empresarial y la dinámica de poder en el sector inmobiliario de Chile y Latinoamérica.
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Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro’s regime was crucial to propping up America’s closest Communist neighbor, Cuba, for many years — but with the despot now in a New York prison, U.S. lawmakers and analysts are turning their attention to Mexico, a top U.S. ally and trading partner that has quietly taken Venezuela’s place.
As of January, Mexico reportedly accounted for 13,000 barrels per day, or 44%, of Cuba’s 2025 oil imports, the top factor keeping what some lawmakers describe as a teetering economy barely afloat. With renewed trade talks approaching in July, Republican lawmakers and conservative analysts are calling for increased pressure on Mexico to cut off Cuba’s oil lifeline.
The Trump administration is also weighing instituting a maritime blockade on oil imports to Cuba, according to Politico. The outlet noted that the move would be an escalation of its previously-stated plan to cut off imports from Venezuela, where Maduro’s former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is now acting president. Such a blockade could spur crisis in the country and lead to the economic collapse of the Castro/Diaz-Canel regime for which much of the U.S. diaspora has long hoped.
«The Cuban government was, even before this action with Maduro, probably at the weakest point that the regime has been in the last 65 years,» said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., the only Cuban-born member of Congress.
AS TRUMP URGES DEAL, CUBAN PRESIDENT WARNS THAT THE COUNTRY WILL DEFEND ITSELF ‘TO THE LAST DROP OF BLOOD’
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, left; Cuban dictator Miguel Diaz-Canel, right. (Sergio Morales/Getty Images; Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)
«This just makes them weaker. My one concern is that it appears that Mexico is now trying to prop them up. And so, the oil that they were receiving from Venezuela is now being supplanted by oil being received by Mexico.»
The Florida Republican said Mexico is in such a position in part because it is «governed by a Marxist,» casting criticism of socialist-party-aligned President Claudia Sheinbaum.
«The oil that they were receiving from Venezuela is now being supplanted by oil being received by Mexico,» he said.
«It doesn’t matter that [the Miguel Diaz-Canel] regime [in Cuba] has been suppressing and oppressing its people for 65 years, as long as they have the right ideology.»
MARCO RUBIO EMERGES AS KEY TRUMP POWER PLAYER AFTER VENEZUELA OPERATION
Gimenez said that Congress could use upcoming intracontinental trade talks over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to pressure Sheinbaum to stop supporting the dictatorship just 90 miles from Fort Zachary Taylor, at the southern tip of his district.
Cuba is already experiencing rolling blackouts, inability to feed its people, medical shortages and a nosedive in tourism due to those developments, he said.
«Would it be okay for us to kind of nudge them over the edge? I don’t know a problem with that,» he quipped.
SENATE REPUBLICAN PREDICTS THE FALL OF THE CUBAN REGIME
Andres Martinez-Fernandez, a Latin America and national security policy analyst who leads the Heritage Foundation’s research on the region, told Fox News Digital that U.S. tolerance for Mexico’s new position may not last.
«It’s a major issue,» he said, adding the Mexico-Cuba relationship got to «worrying levels» under Sheinbaum’s predecessor and now involves a Cuban medical program he called «forced slavery for revenue» involving Cuban doctors arriving in Mexico and sending remittances home – much of which can get funneled to the regime.
If Mexico City wants to continue aiding Havana, it had better prepare for «severe pushback,» he said, similarly citing the USMCA negotiations that Gimenez mentioned.
CUBA’S PRESIDENT DEFIANT, SAYS NO NEGOTIATIONS SCHEDULED AS TRUMP MOVES TO CHOKE OFF OIL LIFELINE
Those aspects, along with President Donald Trump’s discontent with Sheinbaum’s resistance to U.S. action against cartels could come to a head, he suggested, calling Mexico’s attitude «mendacious and duplicitous.»
«It says nothing good if they decide, to maintain this overt support for the Cuban regime as we continue to see this inadequate action on the cartel front.»
Trump declared earlier this month that there will be «no more oil or money going to Cuba – Zero» and the Department of War has been seizing sanctioned «shadow-fleet» oil tankers.
A White House official said Cuba is failing of its own volition and that its rulers suffered a major setback in losing support from the ousted Maduro regime. Trump believes Cuba should make a deal «before it is too late.»
Meanwhile, the aforementioned USMCA talks are scheduled to take place in July, when the trilateral trade deal undergoes a scheduled review.
The U.S. is likely to seek additional concessions from Mexico and Canada amid trade disputes, the Center for Strategic and International Studies predicted last year, with the interceding Mexico-Cuba development likely to further invigorate such demands.
VENEZUELA’S ACTING LEADER WAS ONCE A DEA ‘PRIORITY TARGET’: REPORT
A man waves a Cuban flag at a protest. (Yamil Lage/Getty Images)
The Sheinbaum administration, which did not respond to a request for comment, has reportedly painted its shipments as «humanitarian aid» for the Cuban people.
If Mexico continues oil shipments, it may lead to additionally tense relations between the U.S. and its southern neighbor, already frayed by Trump’s disdain for Sheinbaum’s steadfast refusal to allow American intercession against drug cartels.
If the shipments slacken, that may portend well for the aforementioned upcoming trade negotiations.
As for Cuba, many pro-democracy voices, particularly among the South Florida diaspora, hope the 66-year Castro/Diaz-Canel regime is not long for this world.
Martinez-Fernandez added the regime is likely facing one of the most difficult moments in its history; Mexico’s role aside.
RUBIO LAYS OUT THREE-PHASE PLAN FOR VENEZUELA AFTER MADURO: ‘NOT JUST WINGING IT’
In the 1990s, Cuba lost its larger «patron,» the Soviet Union, he said, and hit a rough patch until Hugo Chavez took power in 1999.
He added that while there has been Western concern about a Chinese foothold there, Beijing appears to have largely «cut ties» and said «there’s nothing new here.»
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«I do think that there is a likely need for additional developments before we see… That kind of next step collapse of the regime itself,» he said.
Fox News Digital reached out to the White House, Commerce Department and the Palacio Nacional for comment.
venezuelan political crisis,cuba,mexico,location mexico,donald trump,energy
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