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Por qué es tan difícil reabrir el estrecho de Ormuz

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Cientos de petroleros permanecen varados en ambos extremos del estrecho de Ormuz.

Irán, en respuesta a los ataques de Estados Unidos e Israel, lo ha bloqueado de facto.

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Mientras el alza vertiginosa de los precios del petróleo sacude la economía mundial, el presidente Donald Trump ha prometido reabrir la ruta marítima «de una forma u otra».

Pero, a menos que se llegue a un acuerdo con Irán o se produzca una ocupación peligrosa y prolongada, advierten los expertos, será difícil restablecer por completo el tráfico en el estrecho. He aquí por qué.

La geografía es estrategia.

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El estrecho es angosto y poco profundo, lo que obliga a los barcos a navegar a pocos kilómetros de las costas montañosas de Irán, un paisaje que favorece las tácticas de guerra asimétrica, en las que Irán utiliza armas pequeñas, ampliamente dispersas y difíciles de eliminar por completo para los adversarios.

“Los iraníes han reflexionado mucho sobre cómo aprovechar la geografía en su beneficio”, afirmó Caitlin Talmadge, profesora del Instituto Tecnológico de Massachusetts que estudia cuestiones de seguridad en el Golfo Pérsico.


Aunque las armas sean relativamente pequeñas, eso permite a los iraníes esconderlas en acantilados, cuevas y túneles, para luego desplegarlas a corta distancia a lo largo de la costa.

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“La enorme proximidad de Irán y la amplitud del estrecho es lo que lo hace tan difícil”, dijo Jennifer Parker, una ex oficial naval que ahora trabaja en el Colegio de Seguridad Nacional de la Universidad Nacional de Australia.

Un buque que sufre un ataque en la vía fluvial no tiene mucho tiempo para reaccionar.

“El tiempo desde la detección es muy limitado”, dijo Parker.

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“Para intentar responder y neutralizar ese misil o dron, el tiempo de respuesta, dependiendo de su velocidad, podría ser de minutos”.

Potencia de fuego oculta

Trump ha enviado mensajes contradictorios sobre cómo espera reabrir el estrecho, llegando incluso a sugerir el lunes que podría controlarlo conjuntamente con el líder supremo de Irán.

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Sin embargo, la mayoría de las opciones que baraja Estados Unidos implican el uso de la fuerza militar.

El primer paso para abrir el estrecho por la fuerza militar implicaría intentar neutralizar la capacidad de Irán para atacar buques.

Desde que comenzó la guerra a finales de febrero, hasta 17 embarcaciones han sido atacadas, según Kpler, una empresa de datos marítimos.

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Hasta ahora, miles de ataques estadounidenses e israelíes contra instalaciones militares iraníes no han logrado detener la amenaza.

Quizás sea imposible encontrar y destruir hasta el último lugar donde Irán almacena o despliega sus armas.

“Tienen muchos lugares donde podrían instalar baterías de misiles”, dijo Mark F. Cancian, asesor principal del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos e Internacionales y coronel retirado del Cuerpo de Marines.

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“Y como las baterías de misiles son móviles, es difícil localizarlas y atacarlas”.

Trump ha solicitado escoltas navales para los buques cisterna comerciales que transitan por el estrecho.

Según Cancian, eso constituiría una importante operación militar.

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“Esto implicaría que los buques escoltaran a los petroleros”, dijo.

“Habría dragaminas para desactivar cualquier mina que se hubiera colocado.

También habría aviones sobrevolando la zona para interceptar drones y atacar baterías de misiles en tierra”.

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El envío de buques de guerra para repeler ataques con drones y misiles conlleva sus propios riesgos.

“Los sistemas defensivos del destructor están diseñados para algo muy distinto al combate cuerpo a cuerpo en el estrecho”, afirmó Eugene Gholz, profesor asociado de ciencias políticas en la Universidad de Notre Dame. “Cada parte del destructor es vulnerable a un ataque”.

Pero puede que las minas sean la mayor amenaza.

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«Si existe una amenaza realmente creíble de que haya minas en el agua, la situación cambia por completo», afirmó Jonathan Schroden, experto en guerra irregular del CNA, un instituto de investigación de defensa independiente.

«Ninguna armada querrá desplegar sus buques capitales en una vía fluvial que esté potencialmente o realmente minada».

Las operaciones de desminado podrían durar semanas y poner a los marineros estadounidenses en peligro directo.

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Los equipos, que se desplazan lentamente, necesitarían protección, incluyendo cobertura aérea.

Riesgos sobre el terreno

Los marines estadounidenses se están desplazando en masa hacia la región, y los expertos dicen que el Pentágono podría utilizarlos para llevar a cabo operaciones terrestres, lanzar incursiones o instalar sistemas de defensa aérea para los convoyes.

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Dado el tamaño de las fuerzas terrestres iraníes, es posible que los marines limiten sus incursiones a las islas del estrecho y eviten intentar tomar territorio en la parte continental iraní, según los expertos.

Aun así, el riesgo de pérdidas estadounidenses podría llevar a Trump a descartar esa opción.

“Si las fuerzas terrestres mueren o son capturadas, la dinámica cambia por completo”, dijo Parker, el ex oficial naval.

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Los límites del éxito

Incluso con una operación militar de gran envergadura, basta un solo ataque para que la confianza vuelva a retroceder.

En estos momentos, la mayoría de los operadores de buques cisterna no se arriesgan a atravesar el estrecho.

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Hay cerca de 500 buques cisterna en el Golfo Pérsico, al oeste del estrecho, y la mayoría de ellos no se encuentran en movimiento, según S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Para que esos buques volvieran a transportar petróleo, habría que convencer a los armadores y a las compañías que aseguran los buques de que los escoltas proporcionarían la protección suficiente.

Incluso con compañías a bordo y una gran operación de convoyes defensivos en marcha, las escoltas militares solo pueden brindar protección a unos pocos barcos a la vez.

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En febrero, antes de la guerra, alrededor de 80 buques petroleros y gaseros transitaban diariamente por el estrecho de Ormuz.

“Lo importante es tranquilizar a las compañías navieras y a los mercados de seguros, asegurándoles que el riesgo es lo suficientemente bajo como para que les compense atravesar el estrecho”, dijo Kevin Rowlands, experto naval del Royal United Services Institute, un grupo de investigación con sede en Londres.

Un operativo de escolta complejo y de gran envergadura también podría suponer un desgaste para las fuerzas militares estadounidenses.

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Los convoyes de escolta podrían desviar valiosas unidades militares de la campaña aérea estadounidense-israelí y de la protección de otras fuerzas en la región.

Y dado que Irán ha atacado buques tanto en el Golfo Pérsico como en el Golfo de Omán, las embarcaciones seguirían necesitando protección después de transitar por el estrecho, una tarea más larga para los activos militares.

“Creo que mientras exista una amenaza residual iraní en el estrecho, se seguirá viendo afectada la navegación”, dijo Talmadge.

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“Para que las cosas vuelvan realmente a la normalidad, se requerirá una solución diplomática y política”.

c.2026 The New York Times Company

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Trump explains voting by mail: ‘I’m president’ with ‘a lot’ going on

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President Donald Trump confirmed he voted by mail in Florida’s special election Tuesday, but he pivoted from the media attack point to note his mail-in ballot reform agenda provides for «exceptions» — and not only because he has the privilege of being president.

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«Yeah, I did,» Trump shot back at a reporter Thursday at his second Cabinet meeting of 2026. «You know what? Because I’m president of the United States.»

«And because of the fact that I’m president of the United States, I did a mail-in ballot for elections that took place in Florida because I felt I should be here instead of being in the beautiful sunshine.»

The reporter noted Trump was at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, before the Palm Beach County election held Tuesday for a state senator and a state representative.

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President Donald Trump hosted his second Cabinet meeting of 2026 and the 11th of his presidency. (Will Oliver/EPA/Bloomberg)

«That’s right, and I decided that I was going to vote by mail-in ballot because I couldn’t be there,» Trump said, adding, «I had a lot of different things» going on.

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Trump was at Mar-a-Lago for the weekend, in Memphis, Tennessee, on Monday for a forum on crime, and then back in Washington, D.C., for the rest of the week, including delivering a speech to the National Republican Congressional Committee on Wednesday night.

Still, Trump proudly reminded the reporter, he is not being hypocritical in rebuking mail-in ballot fraud while voting by mail.

TRUMP DOUBLES DOWN ON CALLS FOR GOP TO ‘NATIONALIZE’ VOTING AS CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS BALK

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President Donald Trump speaks at the second cabinet meeting of 2026

President Donald Trump pulled no punches at his second Cabinet meeting of 2026, calling Iran ‘lousy fighters’ and questioning who is leading the country with so many voices speaking from the shadows against peace. (Jim WATSON / AFP)

«You know, we have exceptions for mail-in ballots,» Trump said. «You do know that, right? So if you’re away, you have an exception. If you’re in the military, we have an exception. If you’re on a business trip, we have an exception. If you’re disabled, we have an exception. And if you’re ill, if you’re not feeling good.

«So I was away mostly in Washington, D.C., so I used a mail-in ballot.»

Trump rebuked voting by mail as «mail-in cheating» at his Memphis stop.

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«I call it mail-in cheating, and we got to do something about it all,» Trump said. «And it’s part of Homeland Security.»

Trump said Sunday his fellow Republicans should not reach an agreement on funding the Department of ​Homeland Security until Democrats in Congress approve a bill — the SAVE America Act — that requires people registering to vote to provide proof of U.S. citizenship.

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Trump also pushed for Democrat approval of other items he wants added to the bill, including banning transgender women from women’s sports, outlawing «transgender mutilation of our children» and restricting mail-in ballots except in cases of illness, disability, military service or travel.

«As President Trump has said, the SAVE America Act has commonsense exceptions for Americans to use mail-in ballots for illness, disability, military, or travel – but universal mail-in voting should not be allowed because it’s highly susceptible to fraud,» White House spokesperson Olivia Wales wrote in an email earlier this week.

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It was not the first time Trump has voted by mail. He voted by absentee ballot in the 2018 midterm elections, a White House spokesperson said at the time. Trump had requested an absentee ballot but decided to vote in person in 2020.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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Zelenskyy claims US tied Ukraine security guarantees to giving up Donbas, White House denies

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U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine are being tied to Kyiv ceding the eastern Donbas region to Russia as part of a potential peace deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters in an interview published Thursday.

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«The Americans are prepared to finalize these guarantees at a high level once Ukraine is ready to withdraw from Donbas,» Zelenskyy said, describing a proposal he warned could undermine both Ukraine’s defenses and broader European security.

But a U.S. official, speaking on background, told Fox News Digital the claim is false.

Zelenskyy’s comments point to growing pressure from President Donald Trump to reach a swift end to the war, now in its fourth year following Russia’s 2022 invasion. 

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Zelenskyy suggested the administration’s approach is influenced in part by competing global crises, including the ongoing conflict involving Iran.

U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine are being tied to Kyiv ceding the eastern Donbas region to Russia as part of a potential peace deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.  (Pavlo Bahmut/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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«The Middle East definitely has an impact on President Trump,» Zelenskyy said. «President Trump, unfortunately, in my opinion, still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side.»

Talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine have taken place in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in 2026, but key issues remain unresolved, including how Ukraine’s future security would be guaranteed and who would fund its long-term defense.

Zelenskyy warned that abandoning Donbas would hand Russia heavily fortified Ukrainian defensive lines, weakening Kyiv’s position and potentially enabling future aggression.

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«I would very much like the American side to understand that the eastern part of our country is part of our security guarantees,» he said.

ZELENSKYY CLAIMS TRUMP SAID US WILL CONSIDER GIVING UKRAINE DECADES OF SECURITY GUARANTEES

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that abandoning Donbas would hand Russia heavily fortified Ukrainian defensive lines.  (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long insisted that full control of Donbas is central to Moscow’s war aims. While Russian forces have made gains, analysts cited by Reuters say progress has been slow, and capturing the remaining territory could take significant time and manpower.

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Zelenskyy also warned that Moscow is betting Washington will lose interest if negotiations stall. 

«Russia is counting on the fact that the United States will not have the strength or patience to bring this to an end,» he said.

Despite tensions over negotiations, Zelenskyy thanked the Trump administration for continuing deliveries of Patriot missile defense systems, which Ukraine relies on to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. 

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«Deliveries to us were not stopped. I’m very grateful to President Trump, and to his team,» he said, while adding that supplies remain insufficient.

In parallel with the diplomatic push, Zelenskyy signaled a broader strategy to expand Ukraine’s role as a security provider, particularly in the Middle East, where countries are seeking solutions to large-scale drone and missile threats.

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A cemetery worker prepares a burial vault at military cemetery outside of the city of Dnipro, Ukraine, May 25, 2023. (Seth Herald/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

«The United States has reached out to us regarding their bases in Middle Eastern countries,» Zelenskyy wrote on X Thursday, adding that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait have also approached Ukraine.

He said Ukrainian teams are already on the ground sharing operational experience, particularly in countering mass drone attacks. 

«No matter how many Patriots, THAADs, or other air defense systems are in the Middle East, that alone is not enough,» he wrote. «There are modern interceptors designed to counter heavy drone strikes.»

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Zelenskyy also indicated Ukraine is exploring defense trade arrangements, offering to sell surplus systems and expertise while seeking access to air defense missiles it currently lacks. 

«Funding is the scarcest resource today,» he wrote, noting Ukraine’s defense industry is operating at roughly half capacity and needs additional financing to scale drone production.

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Ukrainian Armed Forces control an FPV drone

Ukraine is exploring defense trade arrangements, the country’s president said.  (Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Reuters)

In separate posts tied to an address at a Joint Expeditionary Force summit, Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine’s battlefield experience could play a broader role in European and global security.

«We have this experience. … Let’s bring all of this together even more,» he wrote, calling for deeper cooperation with European partners and warning that the continent must build its own capacity to produce air defense systems rather than rely on external suppliers.

Reuters contributed to this story.

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Watchdog warns legal powerhouse has made far-left advocacy their ‘dominant focus’ over the last decade

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A conservative watchdog group is adding fodder to the debate over whether the American Bar Association has become a politicized institution favoring the left.

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A new report released by Trump-aligned lawfare group America First Legal, co-founded by one of the president’s top advisors, Stephen Miller, claims that the ABA’s Standing Committee on Amicus Curiae Briefs over the last decade has produced 80% of left-leaning liberal arguments, 20% neutral and non conservatively-aligned. 

Meanwhile, in all 6 cases the ABA has filed amicus briefs involving Trump, the ABA went against the president or his allies.

President Donald Trump’s second term has included attacks against the ABA, arguing it has politicized its accrediting power, and has favored Democratic Party-backed candidates when vetting judicial nominees. The ABA’s size and legacy make it the premier trade association for the legal sector, but some conservatives fear the group’s power is becoming a «monopoly.»

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«The ABA requires that amicus briefs be authorized by its Board of Governors and must be consistent with existing ABA policy or involve matters of ‘special significance to lawyers or the legal profession,’» a press release from AFL argued. «Briefs on birthright citizenship, transgender healthcare for minors, and the Texas heartbeat law fall well outside that mandate.»

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Fox News Digital reached out to the ABA for comment on the allegations about its amicus filings, but did not receive a response in time for publication. 

According to AFL’s audit, which scanned briefs filed between April 2016 and February 2026, there were a total of 87 filed. Seventy of them «favored a liberal or progressive outcome,» AFL argues, while none they came across were «conservative-aligned» the group added. The remaining covered what AFL described as neutral issues, such as a patent law case.

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The audit also found that cases where Trump, or a Trump official, was named, and the ABA filed an amicus brief, every time they argued in the direction contrary to the Trump official or Trump himself.

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U.S. President Donald Trump sits in the courtroom during his civil fraud trial at New York Supreme Court on January 11, 2024 in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago)

«The ABA presents its amicus program as advancing the interests of the legal profession and the rule of law,» said Gene Hamilton, President of America First Legal.

«The data tells a different story,» Hamilton continued. «More than four in five briefs push a progressive agenda, immigration advocacy has become the program’s dominant focus, and the organization has not once — in ten years and across two Trump administrations — filed a brief that could be characterized as supportive of a conservative legal position. The ABA is not a neutral arbiter and should be treated no differently than any other liberal advocacy group.»

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In President Trump’s second term, the Trump administration has taken several steps to push back against what it says is bias at the ABA. In February 2025, Federal Trade Commission Chairman Andrew Ferguson announced a new policy prohibiting FTC political appointees from holding leadership roles in the American Bar Association (ABA), participating in ABA events, or renewing their ABA memberships. 

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That early action was also followed by several others, such as a May letter to the ABA’s president from Attorney General Pam Bondi indicating the Department of Justice would no longer be engaging in its traditional partnership related to vetting judicial nominees, citing «refusal to fix the bias in its ratings process, despite criticism.»

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Meanwhile, in April, Trump signed an Executive Order that singled out the ABA and other powerful accrediting groups, warning that anyone engaging in unlawful discrimination would be refused federal recognition.

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