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Reformistas vs. conservadores: quiénes son los candidatos con más posibilidades de suceder a Francisco

El cónclave del que saldrá el sucesor de Francisco, fallecido el lunes a los 88 años, será el más concurrido y universal de la historia. Un total de 135 cardenales, menores de 80 años y con derecho a voto, elegirá al nuevo jefe de la Iglesia católica.
Si bien cada uno de ellos -incluso los cuatro argentinos que forman parte del cuerpo cardenalicio- están en condiciones de ser elegidos, solo un puñado de purpurados es considerado “papable”. Según expertos vaticanistas, se vislumbra una dura interna dentro de la Capilla Sixtina entre el ala reformista, que promueve una continuidad del legado de Jorge Bergoglio, y el sector conservador, el robusto cuerpo opositor al pontificado de Francisco que impulsa un drástico cambio de timón en el Vaticano.
Leé también: Una tumba sencilla y una lápida con su nombre: las instrucciones que dejó Francisco para su funeral
Los bandos están bien definidos. Por el grupo reformista los favoritos son el arzobispo de Bolonia y titular de la Conferencia Episcopal italiana Matteo Zuppi; el filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, prefecto de la Congregación para la Evangelización de los Pueblos y el ghanés Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, actual canciller de la Pontificia Academia de las Ciencias y de la Pontificia Academia de Ciencias Sociales. En este último caso, hay una creciente expectativa porque, de ser elegido, se convertiría en el primer “papa africano”, un hito revolucionario en la historia de la Iglesia. El cardenal ghanés Peter Turkson (Foto: Reuters//Guglielmo Mangiapane)
En frente, se encoluman los conservadores liderados por el estadounidense Raymond Leo Burke, del ala más radical y uno de los grandes “enemigos” de Francisco, secundados por el neerlandés Willem Eijk, arzobispo de Utrecht y el húngaro Peter Erdo, titular de la Conferencia Episcopal Húngara y del Concilio de Conferencias Episcopales de Europa. También hay otros “papables” tradicionalistas de origen africano.
Hacia dónde se inclina el cuerpo cardenalicio
La Iglesia que dejó Francisco no es la misma que la que recibió cuando asumió su pontificado en 2013. Hoy el cuerpo cardenalicio representa a todos los continentes. Europa, si bien sigue teniendo un enorme peso, ya no monopoliza el debate.
En sus doce años de pontificado, Bergoglio nombró a 110 de los 135 cardenales con derecho a voto. Hay otros 117 purpurados mayores de 80 años que no sufragan por haber traspasado esa línea etaria. Hoy hay cardenales de países pequeños y lejanos como Timor Oriental, Mongolia, Lesoto o Tonga.

Los cardenales son los encargados de designar a los papas (Foto de archivo: EFE)
Hay veintitrés latinoamericanos, entre ellos cuatro argentinos: Víctor “Tucho” Fernández, Vicente Bokalic Iglic, Ángel Sixto Rossi y Mario Poli. Pero a priori ninguno de ellos es considerado “papable”. Que la Iglesia católica tenga dos papas argentinos consecutivos sería un milagro más difícil de materializarse que el que llevó a Jorge Bergoglio al trono de Pedro.
El grupo latinoamericano tendrá también su peso, con una fuerte presencia brasileña con siete cardenales, aunque en total conforma menos de la mitad del bloque europeo (veintitrés contra cincuenta y cinco, de ellos dieciocho italianos, que durante siglos dominaron los sucesivos cónclaves). Asia cuenta hoy con veinticinco purpurados y África también con dieciocho. El resto proviene de Norteamérica y Oceanía.
Leé también: Los líderes mundiales despidieron al papa Francisco y destacaron su “legado profundo”
Pero esta universalidad no garantiza homogeneidad.
Francisco no se preocupó (ni se ocupó) por elegir cardenales afines a su pensamiento reformista. Pero hizo lío. Su objetivo fue dar cabida a todos, incorporando a la periferia al núcleo central e histórico. De hecho, muchas de las iglesias africanas con representación en el cónclave son tradicionalmente conservadoras. Por eso el voto es hoy una incógnita. Dependerá de cuán “trabada” esté la elección, de los acuerdos bajo la mesa o de eventuales renunciamientos (como el del propio Bergoglio en el cónclave que eligió a Benedicto XVI) para encausarla. Pero también del surgimiento de una figura moderada (un sector clave) que actúe de puente entre ambos bandos, como la del actual “canciller” vaticano, Pietro Parolín, considerado un negociador sobrio y prudente por su vasta experiencia diplomática. Al secretario de Estado, de hecho, se lo menciona como uno de los posibles candidatos en caso de que se “trabe” la votación y surja una figura de consenso.
Quién es quién entre los “papables”
Son muchas las figuras papables. Incluso nadie se anima a descartar un “tapado”. Pero hay un grupo de seis cardenales que se llevan todas las miradas por su peso e influencia en otros purpurados. Tres reformistas y tres conservadores.
ALA REFORMISTA:
- Matteo Zuppi, arzobispo de Bolonia y titular de la Conferencia Episcopal italiana. A los 69 años es el gran favorito entre los progresistas. Muy cercano al pensamiento de Francisco y a la Comunidad Sant’Egidio, conocida por su compromiso por los más pobres, pica en punta en el favoritismo de los vaticanistas. Muchos expertos sostienen que es hora de que un italiano vuelva a comandar el destino de la Iglesia. Si bien Bergoglio tenía raíces en la península, el último papa italiano fue Juan Pablo I, que tuvo un brevísimo pontificado de 33 días en 1978.

El cardenal italiano Matteo Zuppi (Foto: Reuters/Gugliemo Mangiapane)
- Luis Antonio Tagle, prefecto de la Congregación para la Evangelización de los Pueblos. Otro de los grandes reformistas aliados de Francisco. A los 67 años, el cardenal filipino es el más joven de todos los “candidatos”. Su curriculum es extenso: fue arzobispo de Manila y, desde 2019, comanda la Congregación para la Evangelización de los Pueblos. Su enfoque pastoral está basado en la misericordia, la inclusión y la justicia social.

El cardenal filipino Luis Antonio Tagle (Foto:(AP/Andrew Medichini, Archivo)
- Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, actual canciller de la Pontificia Academia de las Ciencias y de la Pontificia Academia de Ciencias Sociales. El purpurado ghanés, de 76 años, se lleva todas las miradas. No solo por su perfil progresista, sino porque podría convertirse en el primer papa africano de la historia de la Iglesia católica. Su elección sería mucho más simbólica y disruptiva que la de Bergoglio, el papa del “fin del mundo”. Nació en una familia modesta de 10 hijos, habla seis idiomas y es reconocido por ser habitué del Foro Económico Mundial de Davos. ¿A qué va? A alertar a los líderes empresariales de los peligros de la economía.

El cardenal ghanés Peter Turkson (Foto: Reuters/Guglielmo Mangiapane)
Otros “papables” progresistas son el francés Jean-Marc Aveline, de 66 años y arzobispo de Marsella; Jean Claude Hollerich, de la misma edad y arzobispo de Luxemburgo; el cardenal italiano Pierbattista Pizzaballa, de 59 años, Patriarca Latino de Jerusalén, y el estadounidense Robert Prevost, Prefecto del Dicasterio para los Obispos y arzobispo emérito de Chiclayo, Perú, entre otros.
ALA CONSERVADORA
- Raymond Leo Burke, uno de los grandes “enemigos” de Francisco. El cardenal estadounidense, de 76 años, es el líder de la línea ultraconservadora de la Iglesia y muy cercano a Donald Trump. Fue, de hecho, el gran opositor al progresismo de Francisco. Incluso, los aliados del fallecido papa lo han señalado más de una vez por conspirar contra Bergoglio. Fue un duro crítico sobre la apertura del Vaticano a los homosexuales impulsada por el papa argentino. Defiende la tradición litúrgica, incluyendo la misa en latín, y se opone a la comunión para divorciados vueltos a casar y la inclusión de personas LGBTQ+ en la Iglesia. Si bien no es de los grandes favoritos para ser ungido papa, puede representar un rol de operador clave durante el cónclave.

Francisco y el cardenal estadounidense Raymond Leo Burke (Foto: vía Reuters)
- Willem Eijk, arzobispo de Utrecht, Países Bajos. El purpurado neerlandés, de 71 años, es otro de los grandes candidatos conservadores. Estuvo en desacuerdo con muchas de las decisiones de Francisco en los últimos años, en sintonía con Burke. Se lo vincula con la línea conservadora heredera del fallecido Benedicto XVI.

El cardenal neerlandés Willem Eijk (Foto: cortesía Infocatólica).
- Peter Erdo, titular de la Conferencia Episcopal Húngara y del Concilio de Conferencias Episcopales de Europa. Es el tercer papable con más proyección entre el grupo tradicionalista. A los 71 años, se lo reconoce por su capacidad de diálogo. De hecho, en los últimos años logró un acercamiento entre Francisco y el ultraderechista presidente húngaro, Viktor Orban.

ARCHIVO – El cardenal húngaro Peter Erdo (AP Foto/Denes Erdos, Archivo)
Otros “papables” conservadores son el estadounidense Timothy Dolan, de 75 años, arzobispo de Nueva York; el brasileño Odilio Pedro Scherer, de 76 años, arzobispo de San Pablo, y dos africanos: el guineano Robert Sarah, de 79 años, prefecto Emérito de la Congregación para el Culto Divino y la Disciplina de los Sacramentos, y el congoleño Fridolin Ambongo, arzobispo metropolitano de Kinshasa.
Si bien no hay una fecha definida para el cónclave, se espera que su comienzo demore al menos dos semanas, posiblemente después del 5 de mayo.
Papa Francisco, Vaticano
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Trump White House celebrates latest chapter of wins at 200-day mark

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President Donald Trump notched his 200th day back in office Thursday, with the administration celebrating a lengthy list of wins across its latest chapter of actions and policies unfolding at a breakneck pace.
«In just 200 days, President Trump has turned America into the hottest country in the world,» White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital. «Under Joe Biden’s failed leadership, families and businesses were struggling, and America was dead — but President Trump has quickly restored American greatness. The historic trade deals and peace deals he secured on behalf of the American people made President Trump’s second 100 days just as successful as the first.»
Trump hit his 100th day of his second administration in April, which included operating at warp speed as Trump signed dozens of executive orders, leveled harsh tariffs on foreign nations to bring parity to the U.S.’ trade deficit, negotiated with foreign nations to work to end wars, unveiled the Department of Government Effeciency to investigate the federal government for potential mismanagement and fraud, locked down the U.S. border with Mexico and continued an overhaul of the federal government so it falls in line with the admin’s «America First» policies.
The first 100 days of a new administration commonly has been viewed as a symbolic benchmark to measure a president’s early successes. A White House official told Fox Digital that Trump’s measure of success was not only seen in the first 100 days, but also in the timeframe between the 100th day and Aug. 7 — the 200th day.
The White House touted that the administration across the board has seen big wins involving immigration, the economy and trade, education, foreign policy, bilateral meetings, strides in the AI race, unleashing energy initiatives and releasing bombshell details on the Russia hoax from the Obama era in the past 100 days.
TRUMP HAS NOW BEEN IN OFFICE FOR SIX MONTHS, FOR THE SECOND TIME. HERE ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS
President Donald Trump smiles as he meets with President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador in the Oval Office of the White House on April 14, 2025, in Washington. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
The president secured a massive win ahead of the Fourth of July when Republican lawmakers in Washington passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Trump touted as securing big tax cuts that will make the U.S. economy similar to a «rocket ship» as Americans begin feeling its effects.
House and Senate Republicans delivered the legislation to Trump’s desk in July after a hard-fought battle that included a handful of Republicans joining Democrats in their condemnation of the bill, mostly over its increase to the debt limit.
The bill includes key provisions to permanently establish individual and business tax breaks included in Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and incorporates new tax deductions to cut duties on tips and overtime pay. It also rescinds certain Biden-era green energy tax credits, allocates approximately $350 billion for defense and Trump’s mass deportation efforts and institutes Medicaid reforms.
«We have officially made the Trump tax cuts permanent,» Trump said during the July signing ceremony. «That’s the largest tax cut in the history of our country. . . . After this kicks in, our country is going to be a rocket ship economically. We’ve delivered no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security for our great seniors. It makes the child tax credit permanent for 40 million American families. The Golden Age of America is upon us.»
On the economic front in the last 100 days: the U.S. economy grew at a 3.0% pace in the second quarter, which shattered forecasters’ predictions; Trump secured trade deals with nations such as South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and the European Union. While businesses such as drugmaker AstraZeneca, carmaker Rolls-Royce, and various tech companies pledging millions in investments in the U.S.
Trump celebrated ahead of his inauguration that the «golden age» of America would unfold under his leadership — which has been a common theme across his past 200 days. At the forefront of Trump’s «golden age» plan of action has not only involved leveling tariffs on foreign nations, but also unleashing artificial intelligence and energy initiatives.
«From this day forward, it’ll be a policy of the United States to do whatever it takes to lead the world in artificial intelligence,» Trump said in July, when he signed a trio of executive orders aimed at boosting the country’s artificial intelligence capabilities.
DETAILS OF TRUMP’S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED AI PLAN REVEALED BY WHITE HOUSE AHEAD OF MAJOR SPEECH
The Trump administration rolled ut its AI Action Plan in July after Trump ordered the federal government in January to develop a plan of action for artificial intelligence in order to «solidify our position as the global leader in AI and secure a brighter future for all Americans.» The AI Action Plan includes a three-pillar approach focused on American workers, free speech and protecting U.S.-built technologies.

The Trump administration rolled ut its AI Action Plan in July after Trump ordered the federal government in January to develop a plan of action for artificial intelligence in order to «solidify our position as the global leader in AI and secure a brighter future for all Americans.» (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
The Trump administration has notched massive wins in the artificial intelligence race in recent days, which pits the U.S. against China to develop the most high-tech artificial intelligence systems. Oracle and OpenAI, for exampled, announced in July that the companies will further develop the Stargate project, which is an effort to launch large data centers in the U.S. The two companies’ most recent announcement promises an additional 4.5 gigawatts of Stargate data center capacity, a move expected to create more than 100,000 jobs across operations, construction and indirect roles such as manufacturing and local services.
While the U.S. General Services Administration announced on Wednesday that OpenAI’s ChatGPT Enterprise is now available to all federal agencies to incorporate into their workflow at $1 per agency, the GSA told Fox Digital. The deal with OpenAI, the tech company behind ChatGPT, is part of GSA’s OneGov Strategy that aims to modernize «how the federal government purchases goods and services» under the Trump administration.
TRUMP RIDES MAJOR WAVE OF MOMENTUM GOING INTO JULY FOURTH AFTER IRAN, BBB, SUPREME COURT AND LAWSUIT VICTORIES

Chris Wright, Donald Trump, Doug Burgum (Reuters)
While the AI race hits new levels, Trump has also cut red tape surrounding the energy sector — which is vital to the growth of AI and the tech sector. Energy companies in the past 100 days have pledged billions to upgrade nuclear plants and modernize gas pipelines, while the administration celebrated the July opening of the newest coal plant in Wyoming in decades, as well as Trump signing a multidecade agreement to increase natural gas exports to Europe.
On the domestic political front, the Trump administration has also championed uncovering and releasing further details surrounding the Russian collusion hoax that plagued Trump’s 2016 presidential win and first presidency.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released bombshell unclassified documents in July that reportedly show «overwhelming evidence» that then-President Barack Obama and his national security team allegedly laid the groundwork for what would be the yearslong Trump–Russia collusion probe after Trump’s election win against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.
FOX NEWS POLL: THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF PRESIDENT TRUMP’S SECOND TERM
«The implications of this are frankly nothing short of historic,» Gabbard told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo in July.
«Over 100 documents that we released on Friday really detail and provide evidence of how this treasonous conspiracy was directed by President Obama just weeks before he was due to leave office after President Trump had already gotten elected,» she continued. «This is not a Democrat or Republican issue. This is an issue that is so serious it should concern every single American, because it has to do with the integrity of our democratic republic.»
Attorney General Pam Bondi directed the DOJ to act on the criminal referral Gabbard sent in July over the matter. Amid the DNI’s bombshell revelations, FBI Director Kash Patel reported late in July that the FBI had recovered a trove of sensitive documents related to the origins of the Trump–Russia probe buried in multiple «burn bags» left in the bureau. Burn bags are used to destroy documents designated as classified or higher, Fox Digital previously reported.

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi speaks alongside President Donald Trump on recent Supreme Court rulings in the briefing room at the White House on June 27, 2025, in Washington, DC. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that individual judges cannot grant nationwide injunctions to block executive orders, including the injunction on President Trump’s effort to eliminate birthright citizenship in the U.S. The justices did not rule on Trump’s order to end birthright citizenship but stopped his order from taking effect for 30 days. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) (Getty Images)
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Trump is expected to continue the breakneck pace of presidential actions and policies as his administration continues ironing out trade deals, negotiating with Russia to end the war continuing to rage in Ukraine, as well as a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and prepares for another high-stake overseas trip to the UK in September, when the royal family is expected to roll out the red carpet for Trump’s unprecedented second state visit to the country.
Fox News Digital’s Brooke Singman, Ashley Oliver and Diana Stancy contributed to this report.
donald trump,white house,russia investigation,taxes
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World leader refuses to ‘humiliate’ himself with Trump trade negotiations

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As President Donald Trump’s global tariffs go into effect, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains staunchly opposed to making deals with the U.S. The South American leader has been an outspoken critic of U.S. tariffs, which he sees as a bullying tactic.
«The day my intuition says Trump is ready to talk, I won’t hesitate to call him,» Lula told Reuters. «But today my intuition says he doesn’t want to talk. And I won’t humiliate myself.»
More than 60 countries and the European Union were hit with new tariffs just after midnight on Thursday. While the baseline rate is 10%, select nations, like Brazil, face additional penalties that push the total tariff up to 50%.
In the past, Lula slammed Trump’s tariffs as «unacceptable blackmail.»
TRUMP’S GLOBAL RESET OF TRADE RELATIONSHIPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SPOTLIGHT THIS WEEK
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during an interview with Reuters at the Alvorada Palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, AuG. 6, 2025. (REUTERS/Adriano Machado)
On July 31, one day after announcing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, Trump said that Lula «can talk to me anytime he wants.» The Brazilian president seemed to respond in a post on X without mentioning Trump by name. He said that his country has «always been open to dialogue.»
«The ones who determine Brazil’s direction are the Brazilians and their institutions. At this moment, we are working to protect our economy, businesses, and workers, and to respond to the tariff measures of the U.S. government,» Lula wrote.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and President Donald Trump feud over tariffs and Brazil’s treatment of Bolsonaro. (Adriano Machado/Evelyn Hockstein/rEUTERS)
TRUMP CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE END TO ‘UNJUST’ TRIAL OF FORMER BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT JAIR BOLSONARO
The dispute between Trump and Lula goes deeper than trade deals. The White House has been open about its opposition to Brazil’s treatment of its former President Jair Bolsonaro.
This was emphasized in an executive order that Trump signed last month in which he decried «the Government of Brazil’s politically motivated persecution, intimidation, harassment, censorship, and prosecution» of Bolsonaro.
Lula told Reuters that Brazil’s Supreme Court «does not care what Trump says, and it should not.» He also reportedly said that Bolsonaro was a «traitor to the homeland» who should face another trial for provoking Trump’s intervention.
«But this now is not a small intervention. It’s the president of the United States thinking he can dictate rules for a sovereign country like Brazil. It’s unacceptable,» Lula said.

Demonstrators, wearing masks depicting President Donald Trump and former Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro, gesture in handcuffs during a protest against Trump’s tariffs on Brazilian products, in front of the U.S. Embassy in Brasilia, Brazil, Aug. 1, 2025. (REUTERS/Mateus Bonomi)
BRAZIL’S EX-PRESIDENT AND MAJOR TRUMP ALLY BOLSONARO PLACED ON HOUSE ARREST
Bolsonaro, who was defeated by Lula in 2022, was recently placed under house arrest amid ongoing legal proceedings over his alleged attempt to overturn the country’s presidential election results.
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Brazil’s president is seemingly unafraid of entering negotiations with Trump. Though he said that there were no pending reciprocal tariffs, Lula told Reuters he was planning to call the leaders of BRICS member states to discuss a possible joint response to the U.S.
Additionally, according to Reuters, Lula said Brazil was looking at joining a collective complaint with other countries at the World Trade Organization.
brazil,world,trade,donald trump
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