U.S. officials and analysts are weighing whether seizing Iran’s main oil export hub could deal a crippling financial blow — but experts warn the high-risk move may not shut off Tehran’s revenue as quickly or completely as expected.

Analysts say U.S. planners face a high-stakes decision: whether seizing Kharg Island would actually disrupt Iran’s oil revenue or leave key export flows intact while exposing American forces to sustained attack. Options under discussion range from interdicting tankers at sea to striking export infrastructure from the air, approaches some argue could pressure Tehran’s finances without putting troops on the ground.

«There’s a big debate going on right now,» R.P. Newman, Marine veteran and counterterrorism analyst, told Fox News Digital. 

Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it one of the most strategically significant energy nodes in the region and a central pressure point for any effort to economically squeeze Tehran.

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«We certainly have the ability, military wise, to take it,» said R.P. Newman, a Marine veteran and counter-terrorism analyst. 

Some analysts argue that taking Kharg could deliver an immediate economic shock, cutting off the regime’s primary source of oil revenue and potentially giving Washington leverage in broader negotiations. 

But such an operation would not be simple.

«It would take thousands to do that,» he said.

U.S. forces already have struck the island hitting more than 90 Iranian military targets, including missile and naval mine facilities, earlier in March while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure, leaving export operations largely intact.

Retired Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, said the same objective could be achieved without putting U.S. forces on the island.

«You could achieve that desired outcome just by constraining the flow that comes out of Kharg after it gets outside the Gulf,» Donegan said.

«You could stop every ship that comes out,» he added.

Robbins said the U.S. could also disable Kharg’s export capability with air power rather than seizing it outright.

An influx of thousands of troops from Marine expeditionary units and the Army’s 82nd airborne division has raised speculation that a ground operation could be on the way. 

But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday U.S. operations could wrap in «weeks, not months» and without ground troops. 

«We are ahead of schedule on most of (the objectives), and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any,» Rubio told reporters during a trip to Paris for a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers.

Even if U.S. forces were able to seize the island, some analysts warn the economic impact would not be immediate.

«The desired full economic effect of taking Kharg Island is going to be a delayed effect if you don’t also seize underway tankers,» said Gregory Brew, analyst at the Eurasia Group, said. 

Any operation targeting Kharg would strike at one of Iran’s most critical economic assets.

«Sales of petroleum products have generally covered between 30 and 40% of the official state budget,» Brew said. «There’s no question the state budget will take a significant hit.»

But a loss of oil revenue would not necessarily cripple the regime’s core power structure.

«The IRGC has what is in effect a shadow budget,» Brew said. «If anything, its relative position may improve.»

That means that while the government’s official budget would shrink, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could retain a larger share of the country’s remaining resources through its independent revenue streams.

Export oil pipelines are seen at an oil facility on Kharg Island, on the shore of the Gulf. (Str/AFP Via Getty Images)

Even if Kharg were taken offline, Iran would retain other ways to keep exports flowing.

«Iran does have four other export facilities,» Brew said.

Its terminal at Jask, Iran, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, «can handle around one-fifth of the volume of oil that can be exported from Kharg.»

«Stopping completely would require interdicting that traffic as well,» Brew added. 

That means any effort to fully choke off Iran’s oil exports would likely extend beyond Kharg, requiring action against multiple export routes and facilities.

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Sustaining the island would prove difficult as well, putting U.S. forces on a sea-locked target within range of Iranian drones, rockets and missiles from the mainland.

«Any deployment to the island will be vulnerable to Iranian counterattack,» Brew said.

11 days in, here’s where U.S. operations in Iran stand. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

«They would be a very small force, very exposed,» said James Robbins, dean of the Institute of World Politics and a former adviser to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Beyond the initial assault, sustaining forces on the island would present additional challenges.

«Once the guys are on the ground, then you have to support them and that would be extremely hard,» Robbins said.

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Some analysts also question what a successful seizure would ultimately achieve.

«To what end would be the question,» Robbins said. «I don’t see an endgame to that, to seizing Kharg.»

President Donald Trump has publicly announced a reprieve on strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6, citing «progress» in negotiations with Iran. 

But Iranian officials have accused the president of «psychological warfare» and expressed skepticism. 

Iran already has begun preparing for a potential Kharg invasion, moving additional forces, bolstering air defenses and laying mines and other traps around the island, including along potential landing areas, sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

The Pentagon and the Iranian mission to the United Nations could not immediately be reached for comment. 

Un ataque con misiles iraníes hirió el viernes al menos a 12 militares estadounidenses y dañó varios aviones en la base aérea Príncipe Sultán en Arabia Saudita. Dos de los soldados resultaron gravemente heridos.

Según confirmaron funcionarios estadounidenses a la agencia The Associated Press, el ataque, que incluyó un misil y drones iraníes, impactó aviones de reabastecimiento estadounidenses.

La base aérea Príncipe Sultán ya había sido blanco de ataques previos. El sargento Benjamin N. Pennington, de 26 años, resultó herido en un ataque el 1 de marzo y falleció días después. Es uno de los 13 militares estadounidenses muertos en la guerra hasta la fecha.

Imágenes satelitales que muestran los daños en la aeronave fueron difundidas por internet. El incidente fue reportado también por The Wall Street Journal y Reuters, a la espera de la confirmación oficial por parte del gobierno estadounidense.

El Comando Central de Estados Unidos informó que más de 300 militares han resultado heridos desde el inicio del conflicto hace un mes. La mayoría se ha reincorporado al servicio, pero 30 permanecen fuera de combate y 10 están gravemente heridos.

La central nuclear de Bushehr, en el sur de Irán, fue atacada este viernes por tercera vez en menos de dos semanas en una operación conjunta atribuida a Israel y Estados Unidos.

El director general del Organismo Internacional de Energía Atómica (OIEA), Rafael Grossi, expresó preocupación por la proximidad de actividades militares al sitio nuclear y advirtió sobre el riesgo de un accidente radiológico de gran magnitud si el reactor resultara dañado. Grossi reiteró su llamado a ejercer la máxima contención militar en la zona para reducir la posibilidad de una catástrofe nuclear.

La administración Trump ofreció a Irán un plan de alto el fuego de 15 puntos, con Pakistán como intermediario. Irán niega la existencia de negociaciones, mientras mantiene el control del estrecho de Ormuz, lo que ha elevado los precios del combustible y alterado la economía global.

El secretario de Estado, Marco Rubio, declaró tras una reunión con los ministros de Asuntos Exteriores del G7 en Francia, que Estados Unidos “puede lograr todos sus objetivos sin tropas terrestres”.

Respecto a los nuevos despliegues en Medio Oriente, subrayó: “Siempre estaremos preparados para darle al presidente (Donald Trump) la máxima flexibilidad y la máxima oportunidad para adaptarse a las contingencias que puedan surgir”.

A su vez, en referencia a la respuesta oficial iraní sobre un diálogo en busca de paz en la región sumó: “Todavía no la hemos recibido”. El jefe de la diplomacia estadounidense detalló que ha habido un intercambio de mensajes e indicios sobre una disposición a hablar de ciertos temas por parte del régimen iraní.

Por su parte, la Guardia Revolucionaria del régimen iraní lanzó una amenaza directa tras los ataques israelí-estadounidenses contra dos de las principales siderúrgicas de Irán. El comandante de la Fuerza Aeroespacial, Mayid Musavi, afirmó vía X: “Ustedes mismos iniciaron el juego con fuego y los ataques contra infraestructuras. Esta vez la ecuación ya no será ‘ojo por ojo’; ¡Esperen!”.

Musavi recomendó a los empleados de empresas industriales vinculadas a Estados Unidos e Israel abandonar de inmediato sus lugares de trabajo para no poner en riesgo sus vidas, en una advertencia interpretada como amenaza explícita de represalias contra infraestructura regional.

Los ataques afectaron las siderúrgicas de Mobarakeh y Juzestán, según autoridades iraníes, que reportaron daños materiales pero no víctimas mortales. La ofensiva representa un cambio en el tipo de objetivos militares, dirigiéndose hacia infraestructuras clave del país. Irán ha respondido en jornadas previas con el lanzamiento de misiles y drones contra objetivos en Israel y otros países de Oriente Medio.

(Con información de The Associated Press y REUTERS)

House Republicans passed a short-term funding patch for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) over the fierce objections of Democratic lawmakers late Friday evening.

But the 42-day shutdown that has snarled air travel and left tens of thousands of federal employees without pay is far from over.

House lawmakers voted 213-203 largely along party lines to approve a two-month funding extension for the beleaguered department, which has been operating without full-year appropriations since the funding lapse began on Feb. 14. 

Reps. Don Davis, D-N.C., Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., and Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, crossed party lines to support the measure. More than a dozen lawmakers did not vote.

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The House-passed DHS measure faces an uphill battle in the Senate, where Democrats have filibustered GOP-authored legislation that includes immigration funding for the past six weeks. 

Both chambers are scheduled to leave Washington for an Easter recess without ending the funding standoff, paving the way for the partial government shutdown to become the longest in history. 

«In those eight weeks, we will figure this out with Democrats and figure out a couple of reforms or whatever they need to make sure that we do this right, but we are going to protect the homeland. We have to,» House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said on the Ingraham Angle on Friday evening. «It’s the most important and most basic function of Congress, and Democrats don’t want to do that.»

Democratic lawmakers, who have repeatedly voted against DHS spending bills funding President Donald Trump’s illegal immigration crackdown absent reforms, echoed the same position Friday. 

«House Republicans have decided that they would rather inconvenience you, create chaos for you and for your families so that they can continue to jam their extreme right-wing ideology down the throats of the American people so they can continue to spend billions of dollars for ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] to brutalize and kill American citizens,» House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said during a news conference Friday. 

The vote came after House GOP leadership and the conservative House Freedom Caucus unequivocally rejected a Senate-passed deal earlier on Friday. The agreement, which passed the Senate unanimously, would have funded the vast majority of DHS sub-agencies minus ICE and parts of U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The National Border Patrol Council endorsed the House bill late Friday, arguing the Senate’s failure to fund all of DHS is «completely unacceptable and should not stand.»

The House Freedom Caucus sharply criticized the Senate-passed deal on Friday, arguing the upper chamber turned its back on federal immigration officers. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

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Senate Republicans have teased a second «big, beautiful» bill to give additional funding to ICE and the Border Patrol, though that could be a difficult feat in an election year with slim majorities in both chambers.

«It wasn’t good. It wasn’t appropriate,» Trump told Fox News in an interview Friday, referring to the Senate agreement. «You can’t have a bill that’s not going to fund ICE.»

House GOP leadership has also voiced concern about funding ICE and the Border Patrol through a second budget reconciliation package.

«That’s a very difficult task. It is a high-risk gamble for us to assume that we could do that,» Johnson told the Ingraham Angle. «And in the meantime, people are still going unpaid in this. We’ve got to make sure that we take care of those who take care of ourselves.»

President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., both criticized a Senate DHS spending bill on Friday for failing to include funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo; Win McNamee/Getty Images)

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The most pressing pain point of the shutdown — a shortage of Transportation Security Administration employees at airports nationwide — is set to be alleviated. The staffing constraints had created hours-long wait times at TSA security checkpoints, leading to travel disruptions and missed flights.

Trump, through an executive order, directed DHS to pay the more than 50,000 TSA personnel who had been reporting to work without compensation since the start of the shutdown to cover their salaries. The agents are expected to receive their first full paychecks in more than six weeks on Monday.