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The Tennessee ‘waltz’: Republicans and Democrats dance around meaning of special election results
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Democrats waltzed into Tennessee and tried to swipe the seat held by Former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., this week.
Winning special elections for House seats is a delicate dance. But Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps, R-Tenn., defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by nine points.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., noted that the Cook Political Report rates that district to favor the GOP by about 10 points.
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«It’s not an R-plus-25. The President won it by 22 points. It’s actually rated to be a slightly Republican district. So, winning it by nine points is almost exactly on the nose of what we might expect,» said Johnson.
In other words, Republicans won the special election by the precise margin expected. That’s even though Republicans fretted that a Democratic surge could serve as a weather vane as to how popular the party is, if there are dents in the Trump coalition and what the path looks like in the 2026 midterms.
«Democrats put millions of dollars in. They were really trying to set the scenario that there’s some sort of wave going on. There’s not. We just proved that there’s not,» said Johnson.
Representative-elect Republican Matt Van Epps delivers his victory speech at Millennium Hotel Maxwell House Nashville Dec. 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. (Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)
Maybe. Maybe not. Special elections are special. A snapshot of where a given district stands at a point in time — often without the benefit of the regular electorate, which shows up in November every two years. That’s why House special elections are sometimes closer than what can be expected in the general. And the party out of power often dumps truckloads of cash into these contests to win.
If nothing else, it forces the other party to burn lots of money too. But trying to make a race seem important gins up the base and concocts an illusion that things aren’t going well for the other side. Maybe people believe that voters are fed up and are demanding a change.
A special election is kind of like checking the score of a football game partway through the second quarter. Maybe one team’s passing game is really clicking. That may dictate the outcome. But we haven’t yet seen the two fumbles in the second half. That’s to say nothing of the botched snap on the field goal and blocked punt.
A lot can happen.
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Frankly, flipping seats in House special elections is arduous. The party out of power in the House or opposite of who occupies the White House often makes a race of it. That can signal a weakness in the party in power or even the president as you approach the next election. One of the best examples of this came in 2017. House Democrats came close to flipping four special elections in solid Republican seats ranging from Montana to Kansas to South Carolina to Georgia.
But Democrats didn’t capture any of those seats.
However, Democrats did make a few of them closer than you might think.
In fact, one of the best examples involved Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kan.
President Donald Trump tapped former Rep. Mike Pompeo, R-Kan., to serve as CIA director and, later, secretary of state. Estes ran to succeed Pompeo. Pompeo won his district with 61% of the vote in 2016. Estes held off a challenge from Democrat James Thompson, vanquishing his opponent by six points and scoring 52% of the vote.
Despite the defeat, Democrats and political observers noted the relative strength of Thompson in the special election. Many wondered if this was an omen about a 2018 Democratic wave.
President Donald Trump and Matt Van Epps (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images; Nicole Hester/The Tennessean/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
But the Kansas district is a Republican stronghold. Democrats gained control of the House in the 2018 midterms. However, Estes won re-election the next year by nearly 19 points.
And despite the clamor surrounding special elections, there have truly only been four major «flips» in House special elections in the past 18 years. And one of those in a Hawaii special election was an anomaly where the Republican won in a three-way contest while two Democrats siphoned votes from one another.
But back to Tennessee.
Could Democrats have scored more success with a moderate candidate? Behn was progressive. A centrist may have had a better shot at winning a district like this, especially when one considers the success of Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., last month.
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Could a Van Epps win encourage other Republicans to quit? The House majority will be 220-214 once Johnson swears him in on Thursday. But some in the GOP are itching to leave. They may think there’s enough of a cushion, even though Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., departs in January.
Fox is told there are several House Republicans who want to head for the exits. Some are upset at the White House controlling the entire agenda and Johnson keeping the House at bay for weeks during the government shutdown. Another factor: President Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine.
Moderate Republicans may look at the Tennessee result and insist on the party addressing healthcare in the coming weeks. That’s a looming factor considering that Democrats withheld their votes to fund the government over healthcare this fall. It’s also possible that moderate Republicans in California and New York might see the relative Democratic strength in this contest as a signpost that they face a tough re-election next year. As we said, Democrats flipped the House seven years ago after coming close in several special elections.
Republican nominee Matt Van Epps delivers a victory speech after winning a special congressional election in Tennessee’s 7th District, Dec. 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Then there is redistricting and gerrymandering. The Van Epps win underscores the concept that drawing favorable lines for your party works.
But this redistricting took place several years ago. Tennessee Republicans drew former Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., a Blue Dog, and any other Democrat out of a Nashville-area district. The GOP trifurcated Nashville and the suburbs, diluting the Democratic vote among several GOP districts. That served as a safety valve to assure a GOP win Tuesday. It also explains the risks of the current wave of redistricting by both parties. Plus, it underscores how redrawing the lines can make some contests closer than they should be.
Both sides are now dancing around with interpretations of what unfolded Tuesday. Republicans say this is why they will hold the House next year. Democrats say they won – even though they lost. And that’s why they will capture the House in the midterms.
Call it the Tennessee «waltz.»
But special elections loom in Texas, New Jersey and Georgia.
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It’s doubtful that those seats are in play.
So don’t expect the Texas Two-Step, the Garden State Stomp or The Night The Lights Went Out In Georgia.
democrats,elections,republicans elections,tennessee,house of representatives politics,politics,midterm elections
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Democratic lawmakers say President Donald Trump’s redistricting gambit is backfiring as Virginia’s Democratic-controlled Senate advanced new congressional maps that could chip away at the House GOP’s majority.
The Virginia Senate voted 21-16 along party lines on Wednesday to pass a set of new congressional maps that would leave just one Republican district in play.
Republicans currently hold five.
To Republicans like Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., that’s too drastic a swing for a state that only has 11 districts to begin with. Even in light of similar redistricting pushes in Texas, California and other states, Wittman believes Virginia’s case is unique.
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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters and members of the media at Mar-a-Lago on Feb. 1, 2026, in Palm Beach, Fla. (Al Drago/Getty Images)
«This partisan power grab is not reflective of Virginia. Virginia is a 6-5 congressional delegation: six Democrats, five Republicans. And now they want to go to 10 Democrats, one Republican — 92%,» Wittman said.
«They’re going to disenfranchise most Virginians, if not all of them, that are Republican or independent.»
Despite the size of the change the maps would bring, Democrats believe it’s just the latest continuation of a fight that Trump started.
«You have to fight fire with fire,» Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va., told Fox News Digital.
«The voters that I’m talking to feel that we can’t just sit back and be victims of redistricting. I don’t think this would be happening unless [Trump] pushed for redistricting in Texas and other red states,» Subramanyam said.
When asked if he thinks the changes would go too far, Subramanyam said he thinks Republicans will have a chance to press their case at the ballot box.
«If Republicans can win over the hearts and minds of Virginians, they will have a good cycle. It’s a very volatile map in that sense, and so I know many have argued that this is actually fair. I would say that it’s certainly a map where, if Republicans campaign well and their message resonates, they can win too,» Subramanyam said.
Since Trump urged lawmakers in Texas to push through a map change in July 2025, state legislatures across the country have explored ways to squeeze out a congressional advantage where control of the House hangs by a two-seat thread.
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Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va., speaks during a news conference on Oct. 14, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)
Virginia’s map change, on its own, would give Democrats a path to flipping control of the chamber in November.
But the maps aren’t a sure thing. Their implementation turns on pending legal battles about whether the shakeup complies with the state’s constitutional requirements, according to a complaint filed late last year.
On Friday, the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that the redistricting consideration could continue while it deliberates over a final ruling on whether the maps are permissible.
To become official, maps will also require a statewide constitutional referendum. Under current law, Virginia’s constitution outlaws gerrymandering, the practice of drawing congressional districts to purposefully benefit a political party.
Subramanyam said the referendum gives voters a chance to express their will.
«It will come down to the voters. One good thing in Virginia is that people will have a say and can vote on the referendum in April. Folks in Texas, like where my family still lives, didn’t have a choice,» Subramanyam said, noting that Texas’s redistricting push didn’t require a constitutional amendment and was decided purely by the legislature.
Wittman believes the fact Virginia is looking to upend its own constitution should make the reshuffle a foregone conclusion.
When asked whether he sees Virginia’s redistricting question as a consequence of the redistricting in Texas, Wittman said the two situations differ because of existing state law.
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Sen. Phil King, R-Texas, displays a map during a Special Committee on Congressional Redistricting public testimony hearing on Aug. 7, 2025, in Austin. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
«Each state has their own constitution as to how they put together their congressional districts. Virginia’s is very clear. A super majority of voters — 66% of the voters — said we want a bipartisan redistricting commission. That’s Virginia,» Wittman said, referring to the 2020 vote in Virginia that outlawed gerrymandering.
«Texas is doing what Texas and its constitution allow,» he added.
Upon teeing up that referendum, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger framed the action as a way to give Virginians a voice in a national debate over congressional redistricting.
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«Virginia voters deserve the opportunity to respond to nationwide attacks on our rights, freedoms and elections… I trust Virginia voters to respond,» Spanberger said in a statement.
Voters in the state will consider whether to «temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections» on April 21.
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Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), commonly known as Doctors Without Borders, suspended non-critical medical operations at Gaza’s Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, citing security concerns.
MSF said it made the decision, as of Jan. 20, due to concerns about the management of the hospital and what it described as a pattern of unacceptable incidents within the compound.
The suspension had not been widely reported at the time, and it was not immediately clear when the decision was first publicly posted.
MSF’s frequently asked questions page, where the update appears, shows it was last revised on Feb. 11.
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A Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) poster and other informational notices are seen on a door at Nasser Hospital as patients face difficulties accessing care in Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Jan. 15, 2026. (Abed Rahim Khatib/Anadolu via Getty Images)
In recent months, the international medical humanitarian aid group said staff and patients have reported the presence of armed and sometimes masked men, intimidation, arbitrary arrests of patients and the suspected movement of weapons on hospital grounds.
«While none of these incidents occurred in parts of the hospital compound where MSF works, they pose serious security threats to our teams and patients,» MSF wrote on its website.
«MSF formally expressed its strong concern to relevant authorities and emphasized the incompatibility of such violations with our medical mission. Hospitals must remain neutral, civilian spaces, free from military presence or activity, to ensure the safe and impartial delivery of medical care,» the group continued. «MSF calls on all armed groups, Hamas, and Israeli forces to respect medical facilities and ensure the protection of civilians.»
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Palestinian children receive medical treatment at Nasser Hospital amid a rise in influenza and respiratory infections in Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Jan. 14, 2026. (Hani Alshaer/Anadolu via Getty Images)
In a statement issued Saturday, Nasser Hospital rejected what it called «false, unsubstantiated, and misleading allegations» by MSF regarding the presence of weapons or armed groups inside the facility.
«These allegations are factually incorrect, irresponsible, and pose a serious risk to a protected civilian medical facility. The Gaza Strip is under an extreme and prolonged state of emergency resulting from systematic attacks on civilian institutions,» it said. «Under these conditions, isolated unlawful actions by uncontrolled individuals and groups have occurred across society, including attempts by some to carry weapons.»
Hospital officials said a civilian police presence had been arranged to help safeguard patients, staff and infrastructure and called on MSF to retract its claims and reaffirm its commitment to medical neutrality.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Sunday on X that it has intelligence indicating Hamas is using Nasser Hospital as a headquarters and military post, reiterating longstanding allegations that the militant group embeds operations within civilian facilities in Gaza.
Patients are treated in the orthopaedic department of Nasser Hospital as Palestinians wounded in Israeli attacks continue receiving care under limited conditions in Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Jan. 29, 2026. (Abed Rahim Khatib/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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«For over two years, the IDF and the defense establishment has warned about the cynical use by terrorist organizations in Gaza of hospitals and humanitarian shelters as human shields to conceal terrorist activity,» it wrote.
Hamas has previously denied using hospitals or other civilian facilities for military purposes.
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INTERNACIONAL
La traición, la noche helada y la fuga por la nieve: la historia de la masacre de Glencoe
El 13 de febrero de 1692, la Matanza de Glencoe marcó uno de los episodios más oscuros y polémicos en la historia de Escocia. Este acto de violencia, ejecutado por fuerzas del gobierno bajo el mando del capitán Robert Campbell de Glenlyon, selló el destino del clan MacDonald en las Tierras Altas occidentales, dejando una huella indeleble en la memoria nacional y en el imaginario popular, hasta el punto de inspirar relatos modernos como la célebre escena de la “boda roja” en la serie Game of Thrones.
Desde tiempos remotos, Escocia mantuvo una tradición de resistencia frente a invasores y de luchas internas por el poder. Las crónicas del país registran desde los Caledonios y los Pictos rechazando el dominio romano, hasta figuras emblemáticas como William Wallace y Robert the Bruce enfrentándose al ejército inglés en Stirling y Bannockburn.
A finales del siglo XVII, la política escocesa se vio marcada por la llamada causa jacobita, surgida tras la destitución del rey católico James VII de Escocia y II de Inglaterra durante la “Revolución Gloriosa” de 1688, que instauró en el trono a William de Orange (posteriormente William III).
La causa jacobita agrupó a quienes buscaban restaurar a un monarca católico, y encontró apoyo entre varios clanes de las Tierras Altas, en particular los MacDonald de Glencoe, quienes permanecieron leales al depuesto James.
El gobierno de William III, decidido a consolidar su autoridad, exigió que todos los clanes de las Tierras Altas firmaran un juramento de lealtad antes del 1 de enero de 1692.
A cambio, prometía dinero, tierras y el perdón para quienes acataran la orden a tiempo. En cambio, quienes no lo hicieran serían castigados como traidores.
La situación de los MacDonald era especialmente delicada. Aunque el jefe del clan, Iain MacIain, buscó cumplir la exigencia, se vio perjudicado por la demora en la autorización del propio James para prestar el juramento.
Según el archivo del Glencoe National Nature Reserve, “James solo dio su consentimiento a la solicitud de William a mediados de diciembre; la noticia llegó a los MacDonald el 28 de diciembre: tenían tres días para cumplir el plazo”.
MacIain emprendió una travesía a través de la nieve hasta Fort William, pero allí nadie tenía la autoridad para aceptar el juramento. Debió desplazarse a Inveraray, a más de 96 kilómetros de distancia, y finalmente pudo prestar el juramento el 6 de enero, convencido de que su clan quedaba a salvo.
Sin embargo, la decisión de “dar un escarmiento” ya estaba tomada desde el gobierno, y la suerte de Glencoe estaba echada.
El trasfondo de este trágico desenlace implicaba no solo rivalidades entre clanes, sino también un claro deseo del gobierno de imponer su control sobre los rebeldes de las Tierras Altas.
Aunque la historia suele asociar la masacre a la enemistad tradicional entre los MacDonald y los Campbell, la evidencia señala que se trató, sobre todo, de una operación estatal para quebrar la resistencia jacobita.
“Aunque los Campbell son los más asociados con la masacre, fue menos una cuestión de rivalidad de clanes que un complot gubernamental para alinear a los clanes de las Tierras Altas con el rey William”, detalló el propio sitio oficial de Glencoe.
En la última semana de enero de 1692, dos compañías, sumando unos 120 soldados del regimiento del conde de Argyll y comandados por Robert Campbell de Glenlyon, llegaron a Glencoe. Siguiendo las tradiciones de hospitalidad de las Tierras Altas, los MacDonald ofrecieron alojamiento y techo a los soldados durante casi dos semanas.
“Glenlyon había recibido órdenes de alojar a sus hombres entre las familias MacDonald en el valle, en lugar de impuestos no pagados. Las reglas tradicionales de hospitalidad implicaban que fueron bien recibidos. Sin embargo, Iain MacIain, jefe anciano del clan, ordenó que las mujeres jóvenes y solteras fueran enviadas lejos, y temiendo que Glenlyon pretendiera desarmar al clan, ocultó las armas en otro lugar”, relató el portal History Today.
La noche del 12 de febrero, Glenlyon y sus oficiales recibieron sus órdenes escritas: “A las 5 de la mañana del día siguiente debía atacar a los rebeldes… y matar a todos los menores de setenta años”.
El propio MacIain fue asesinado por la espalda mientras intentaba vestirse. Su esposa fue despojada de sus ropas y los soldados le arrancaron los anillos de los dedos con los dientes; terminó muriendo de exposición. Nueve hombres atados fueron fusilados uno a uno y Glenlyon remató a cada uno con su bayoneta.
En total, al menos 38 hombres, mujeres y niños murieron en el ataque inicial, y muchos más fallecieron de frío al intentar huir a las montañas.
El impacto de la masacre fue tan profundo que, señala el Glencoe National Nature Reserve, “cuando la noticia finalmente llegó al público, tras ser publicada primero en Francia, una Comisión Parlamentaria de Escocia determinó que los asesinatos fueron ‘crímenes de asesinato bajo confianza’“.
Y agrega: “En una época donde la hospitalidad era piedra angular de la vida en las Tierras Altas, este fue un crimen atroz y sorprendente”.
La indignación en Escocia fue inmediata y duradera. En 1695, el rey William III se vio obligado a ordenar una comisión de investigación. La responsabilidad se repartió, aunque la comisión concluyó que el rey había firmado la orden de “extirpar” a los MacDonald, pero solo con la intención de “proceder por la vía de la justicia pública”.
La mayor parte de la culpa recayó en John Dalrymple, secretario de Estado para Escocia, quien, según la comisión, “despreciaba a los Highlanders y particularmente a los MacDonald”.
William III finalmente lo perdonó, justificando que “al estar a muchos cientos de millas de distancia, no podía tener conocimiento ni participación en el método de ejecución”.
A pesar de que la tradición popular culpó a los Campbell, los registros históricos indican que solo una docena de miembros de este clan participaron directamente en la masacre.
El hecho de que los soldados se alojaran bajo el mismo techo que sus víctimas durante días antes del ataque, violando las normas más sagradas de hospitalidad, convirtió la masacre en un símbolo de traición y barbarie.
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