FIRST ON FOX: A new report is raising concerns about Turkey’s role in the Middle East, arguing that under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the country has moved away from its traditional Western alignment and toward deeper engagement with Islamist movements, including the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies report, led by senior fellow Sinan Ciddi and titled «Islamist Domination of Turkey: A Forward Base for Muslim Brotherhood-Aligned Jihadism,» argues that Turkey has ties to Hamas — the U.S.-designated terrorist group responsible for the Oct. 7 massacre — as well as to the Muslim Brotherhood — an Islamist movement whose affiliates have recently been designated as terrorist organizations by the United States — placing Turkey’s policies under renewed scrutiny as it prepares to host a NATO summit.

Ciddi told Fox News Digital the shift reflects a broader transformation in how Turkey defines threats.

«What we have is Turkey has completely rewritten the rules of how you interpret what a jihadist terrorist entity may be,» Ciddi said. «Erdoğan has reinvented what is interpreted as a terrorist entity … groups such as Hamas or al-Nusra fall into line with his pan-Islamist view of the world.»

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Hamas presence draws scrutiny

A central focus of the report is Turkey’s relationship with Hamas, which the United States designates as a terrorist organization, and yet Hamas expanded its presence in Turkey after 2011, establishing offices and networks inside the country.

«From 2011 onward … Hamas used this opportunity inside of Turkey with a friendly government to establish offices, engage in recruitment (and) fundraising,» Ciddi said.

U.S. authorities have taken action against some of those networks. The Treasury Department has designated Hamas-linked individuals and entities operating in Turkey, a point Ciddi said underscores longstanding concerns.

«The United States Treasury has been tracking and designating Hamas-affiliated NGOs and individuals inside of Turkey,» he said.

The report also alleges that some Hamas operatives have been able to travel using Turkish-issued documents and that senior figures have been publicly received by Erdoğan.

Beyond Hamas, the report describes Turkey as a hub for Muslim Brotherhood figures from across the region, including Egypt and Yemen, many of whom relocated there following crackdowns in their home countries.

Across parts of the Arab world, the Muslim Brotherhood has been banned or restricted for years. 

Egypt outlawed the movement in 2013, accusing it of inciting unrest and undermining state institutions. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates later designated it a terrorist organization, describing it as a threat to national stability, while Bahrain adopted a similar stance. 

Jordan dissolved its local chapter this year following arrests authorities said were linked to illicit weapons activity.

Some European countries also have taken steps targeting networks linked to the movement. 

Austria, for example, has pursued legal action against individuals and organizations it says are connected to Brotherhood-linked activity as part of its counter-extremism policies.

Officials in these countries have argued that the Brotherhood operates through a mix of religious outreach, political activism, charitable organizations and media platforms to influence public opinion and challenge state authority.

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People protest in support of Palestinians in Gaza during a protest rally in Istanbul, Turkey, on Feb. 17, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. (Khalil Hamra/The Associated Press )

Syria policy and sanctions questions

The report also examines Turkey’s role in Syria, where the country backed opposition forces during the civil war, supporting a range of armed factions, including groups that later formed the Syrian National Army.

«The Syrian National Army … was a hodgepodge collection of militias that Turkey directly armed, paid and organized,» he said.

The report links Turkish support to groups such as al-Nusra and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, raising questions among analysts about whether such ties could expose Turkish officials to potential sanctions under U.S. law.

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U.S. President Donald Trump (R) delivers remarks during a meeting with President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Oval Office at the White House on Sept. 25, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

A balancing act with Washington

Despite these concerns, other analysts say Turkey’s relationship with the United States continues to act as a constraint on its behavior, while the relationship between Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been characterized by renewed trust, with Trump praising Erdoğan’s role in Gaza diplomacy.

As Trump celebrated the Gaza ceasefire agreement in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt in October 2025, he singled out one leader for extraordinary praise — Erdoğan, whose leadership he credited for helping deliver the Gaza ceasefire.

«A guy who’s been a friend of mine for a long time. I don’t know why I like the tough people better than the soft, easy ones,» Trump said about Erdoğan at the Sharm el-Sheikh summit in October 2025. «This gentleman from a place called Turkey is one of the most powerful in the world … He’s a tough cookie — but he’s my friend.»

Hişyar Özsoy, a Turkish politician and academic, described the relationship between Erdoğan and Trump as «transactional,» noting Washington often relies on Turkey for regional coordination.

In a policy webinar hosted by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, Turkish academic Hüseyin Bağcı emphasized that Ankara remains closely tied to Washington.

«The Turkish state is not interested in fighting with Israel because the Turkish government has very good relations with (the) United States of America,» he said. «You cannot be good with America and then be in conflict with Israel.»

Bağcı also suggested Turkey has at times limited Islamist actors domestically.

«Today do you hear anything about» the Muslim Brotherhood, he said. «No … because the president said stop.» 

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, left, shakes hands with Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, right, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg looks on prior to a meeting ahead of a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Monday, July 10, 2023. (Yves Herman, Pool Photo via AP)

NATO ally under pressure

Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, remains a key partner for the United States, providing logistical access, military capabilities and diplomatic reach.

But Ciddi argued Turkey’s current trajectory increasingly diverges from alliance priorities.

«There is an established track record … where Turkey significantly undermines the transatlantic alliance’s core security concerns,» he said.

He pointed to U.S. sanctions on Turkish entities accused of supplying dual-use goods to Russia, as well as Ankara’s broader strategy of maintaining ties with competing powers.

Iran and regional positioning

As far as Turkey’s positioning itself amid tensions with Iran, Ciddi said Turkey is likely to favor a weakened Iranian regime rather than a complete collapse that could produce a more pro-Western government. 

«A weakened Iranian regime is Erdoğan’s safest bet,» he said.

Bağcı offered a similar assessment of the rivalry.

«Iran is not an enemy of Turkey, but not necessarily its best friend. Turkey and Iran are two regional competitors,» he said.

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In this May 30, 2015, file photo, supporters of Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and prime minister and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Ahmet Davutoglu, some holding Turkish flags, wait for their appearance in Istanbul during a rally to commemorate the anniversary of the city’s conquest by the Ottoman Turks. As extremist violence and political uncertainty cast a shadow over Turkey, voters are looking for the parliamentary election to usher in stability. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)

Looking ahead

The report recommends potential U.S. policy responses, including sanctions and increased scrutiny of Turkey’s financial system, steps that could reshape relations between Washington and Ankara.

Fox News Digital reached out multiple times to the Turkish government and to the State Department for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.

President Donald Trump goes before the nation in prime time on Wednesday evening to deliver what the White House says is «an important update» on the war with Iran.

The president’s address comes amid the month-long attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, which polls indicate are unpopular with many Americans, and a surge in gas prices as a direct result of the fighting have triggered a further slide in Trump’s standing in public opinion surveys.

The political implications are clear: The strikes on Iran and the erosion of the president’s approval ratings are warning signs for the GOP as Republicans ramp up to defend their slim House and Senate majorities in this autumn’s midterm elections.

Trump stood at 41% approval and 59% disapproval in the latest Fox News national poll, which was conducted March 20–23. The president’s negative 18-point margin was up from 14 points in the previous Fox News poll, which was conducted Feb. 28–March 2, as the strikes against Iran began.

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The president’s approval ratings stood in the upper 30s, with his disapproval in the upper 50s to low 60s, in the most recent national surveys from Reuters/Ipsos, AP/NORC, and Quinnipiac University. A CNN poll conducted March 26–30 and released Wednesday indicated Trump had a 35%-64% approval/disapproval rating.

An average of the most recent national surveys gauging the president’s standing puts Trump just above 40%, with his disapproval in the upper 50s.

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While Trump’s base remains extremely supportive of the president and the war, much of the slippage is coming from within the GOP, specifically those who are considered non-MAGA Republicans.

«I do see in the last couple of surveys an edging down…close to a double-digit movement,» veteran Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps run the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, said, pointing to declining support for Trump among non-MAGA Republicans.

Fueling Trump’s decline appears to be the surge in gas prices.

The average price of gasoline in the U.S. topped $4 per gallon on Tuesday, according to national averages from AAA and GasBuddy, for the first time in four years.

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The military attacks by the U.S. and Israel have resulted in the deaths of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, and the decimation of the country’s military.

In response, Iran has targeted energy facilities with missile and drone attacks in a number of Persian Gulf nations. It has also made the Strait of Hormuz nearly impassable to commercial shipping, bringing roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply to a halt and sending global fuel prices sharply higher.

A gas station displays a sign for $3.999 for regular gasoline, in Cleveland, Monday, March 30, 2026.  (Sue Ogrocki/AP Photo)

That has only exacerbated Trump’s polling woes when it comes to his performance on the economy, amid public dissatisfaction with high prices and the cost of living.

A spotlight on inflation helped fuel sweeping victories by Trump and Republicans in the 2024 elections, when they won back the White House and Senate and successfully defended their slim House majority.

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But a laser focus on affordability by Democrats, amid persistent inflation, has fueled a slew of victories and overperformances in 2025’s off-year elections and in special elections in the more than 14 months since Trump returned to the White House.

According to the Fox News poll, 80% of respondents said they were concerned about gas prices, and 86% concerned about inflation and high prices. And the CNN survey spotlighted that the president’s approval rating for handling the economy sank to 31%, Trump’s lowest level ever in their polling.

The White House says the surge in prices is temporary.

«When Operation Epic Fury is complete, gas prices will plummet back to the multiyear lows American drivers enjoyed before these short-term disruptions,» White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement on Tuesday.

Leavitt emphasized that «President Trump remains committed to fully unleashing American energy dominance, lowering costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families.»

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The gas price surge is giving Democrats more political ammunition to target the GOP.

«BREAKING: National Gas Prices Skyrocket to $4 Per Gallon,» read the headline from an email Tuesday morning from the Democratic National Committee.

The House Democrats’ campaign committee last week launched digital ads showing prices at the pump rising and an image saying «D.C. Republicans Did That!» Sources say to expect another round of ads on gas prices in the coming weeks.

But Democrats have their own polling problems, as the party’s brand image has cratered to historic lows in a slew of polls over the past year.

Shaw, pointing to the so-called double-haters, voters who disapprove of both Trump and the Democrats, said that group hasn’t «really swung dramatically to the Democrats» as the midterms approach.

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas emphasized in a recent Fox News Digital interview that, in his opinion, Trump’s «decision to launch this military action is the most consequential decision» of his presidency.

Such perceptions only increase what’s at stake when Trump addresses the nation in prime time.

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«The American people want to hear what the off-ramp for the war is and when it will end,» Dan Eberhart, an oil drilling chief executive officer and prominent Republican donor told Fox News Digital.

Eberhart, who is supportive of the president, said: «Trump’s base is with him, but many ordinary Americans feel the war is unnecessary. Tonight is Trump’s opportunity to explain why this war matters to everyday Americans.»

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