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Trump’s MAGA imprint on GOP strong now, but will it last? Experts weigh in
President Donald Trump recently hyped a new national poll which indicates an increasing percentage of Republicans now identify as MAGA supporters.
The president, in a social media post, pointed to what he said was «tremendous support» for MAGA, which is the acronym for Trump’s «Make America Great Again» movement.
«I am not, at all, surprised!!!» Trump wrote, days ahead of the 100-days milestone.
The poll indicated that 71% of Republicans now identify as MAGA supporters, up from 55% in November.
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President Donald Trump on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One, on Feb. 28, 2025. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The NBC News survey is the latest piece of evidence of Trump’s extremely firm grip over the GOP, and his remaking of the Republican Party in his image, a transformation that started with the president’s initial White House victory in 20216.
While the president repeatedly teases the possibility of running for re-election in 2028, the reality is that serving a third term is clearly prohibited by the Constitution under the 22nd Amendment.
So what happens to Trump’s MAGA movement and America First agenda after he departs the White House?
«The Republican Party will never go back to what it was. The old Republican Party of [former longtime Senate GOP leader] Mitch McConnell run by Washington elites died forever in 2024,» longtime Republican consultant Alex Castellanos told Fox News Digital.
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Castellanos, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns, emphasized that «the Republican Party of Donald Trump is alive and growing out in America.»
And he made the case that «what happened in 2024 is that what was a man became a movement.»
Former President Donald Trump arrives at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. (Reuters/Cheney Orr)
David Kochul, another longtime Republican strategist with plenty of experience on the presidential campaign trail, concurred that «we’re not going back to what the party looked like in 2012. That’s for sure. We’re going forward to something new and different.»
Even a vocal Republican critic of Trump agrees.
Former congressman and former two-term Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who launched an unsuccessful 2024 Republican presidential nomination bid, acknowledged that «those who want the GOP to go a different direction from the MAGA leadership of President Trump are now fighting an uphill battle.»
«Trump has found his stride with his anti-immigrant message and it is overshadowing the chaos from his super-charged tariff war and its impact on the economy,» Hutchinson told Fox News Digital.
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who ran for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, is interviewed by Fox News Digital at the Democratic National Convention, on Aug. 21, 2024, in Chicago. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)
Whoever succeeds Trump as GOP standardbearer – be it heir apparent Vice President JD Vance or someone else – won’t be Trump.
«Trump is such a unique actor and figure. He can’t be replicated,» Kochul stressed. «Nobody can be the next Donald Trump. That’s not possible. He’s singular.»
But his movement will have some staying power.
«Just like the Reagan Revolution, Trump’s legacy and messaging will prevail beyond his last day in office,» Dave Carney, another longtime Republican consultant and presidential campaign trail veteran, told Fox News.
But Carney argued that Trump’s legacy may «wane over years unless the next Republican president continues it.»
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«Is it going to be as hot and heavy as it is now without his personality? Carney asked.
Answering his own question, he said, «No. You need to have a messenger to carry that theme.»
But Castellanos noted that Trump has «spawned a new younger generation of MAGA leaders who will carry on the MAGA movement long after Trump.»
Pointing to Vance and others, Castellanos described «a fresh generation of MAGA.»
«The players on the MAGA farm team are now playing major league ball,» he said.
Kochul, looking to the future of the GOP, said that «it will be more populist, whomever emerges.»
And as for those future leaders, he suggested that «we’ve got a lot of great leadership and a great bench.»
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Hutchinson, a former U.S. attorney under Ronald Reagan and high-ranking official in George W. Bush’s administration, also weighed in on the future of Trump’s MAGA movement.
«Whether Trump’s dominance continues beyond the next few years depends upon the tolerance level of the GOP base on Trump’s view that ‘he is the law’ rather than respecting the separation of powers that have served our country well,» Hutchinson said.
Trump’s First 100 Days,Republicans,Elections,Donald Trump
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Reporter’s Notebook: Tennessee special election eyed as Trump referendum ahead of midterms
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We’ll know Wednesday morning if a special election in Tennessee is truly a referendum on country music, pedal taverns and bachelorettes.
Or, we can divine a deeper political meaning from the results of the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
Democrat Aftyn Behn is trying to tip the scales in favor of her party in a district which President Donald Trump carried by about 20 points and former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., won by a similar percentage last fall.
Behn faces GOPer Matt Van Epps. It’s a Republican district. But political observers are watching the race to gauge potential weakness by Trump, a softness in the Trump coalition, issues with the Republican brand or early indications of a possible blue wave in the 2026 midterms.
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Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, left, and Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn are facing off in a Dec. 2, 2025, special election for a vacant GOP-held U.S. House seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. (AP Photo; AP Photo )
It was Behn who proclaimed that she abhorred Nashville several years ago. «I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate all the things that make Nashville apparently an ‘it city,’» complained Behn.
About all Behn left out in her animus toward Music City was dissing The Grand Ole Opry, hot chicken and Goo Goo Clusters. But if voters go goo goo over Behn Tuesday, Republicans face a cluster of another sort. A Behn victory may signal major problems for Republicans and President Trump heading into the midterms.
Behn is characterized as the «AOC of Tennessee,» a reference to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Republicans have been sure to boomerang that against Behn, suggesting she’s not in tune with the district, leans too far to the left, and is closer to the liberal values of New York or Los Angeles than Nashville. Republicans believe Behn is just a bad fit for Nashville. Kind of like having Bad Bunny perform at the Ryman Auditorium.
«It shouldn’t even be close, but it is,» mused Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., on Fox.
So Republicans are pouring in money to protect the seat. Democrats are pouring in money to steal the seat. If Democrats pull off the upset, the party should uproot the goalposts at FirstBank Stadium in downtown Nashville and dump it in the Cumberland River. Kind of what Vanderbilt fans did last year when the Commodores upset No. 1-ranked Alabama.
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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez listens to the testimony of witnesses during a House hearing with sanctuary city mayors on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 5, 2025. (AP Images)
Let’s explore what a Behn win might mean for Republicans. It could indicate that voters are tiring of Trump. Or that the GOP brand is toxic. Or perhaps it’s the continuation of a trend which Democrats enjoyed this fall: near blowout wins by New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger.
But there’s a downside for Democrats. Yes. They may flip the seat. But a win may also show that the party is tilting more to the left. It would be hard to argue with success if Behn prevails, regardless of her progressive streak. But this may give other liberals ideas that they can win in other red or purple districts. That may work against Democrats — especially since every Republican, except President Trump, has highlighted the left-wing politics of New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
Democrats probably need to run more centrist candidates in purple areas to regain control of the House. A Behn victory could open the floodgates for a host of progressive candidates in competitive House districts nationwide. Behn’s message — or that of Ocasio-Cortez or Mamdani — won’t work in most places where Democrats need to be successful to seize control of the House.
But what if Republicans hold the seat and Van Epps wins?
It probably depends by how much.
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Democrats scored victories across the country in November 2025, with centrist and leftist candidates taking crucial positions. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Adam Gray/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Yes, there were five special elections in 2017 — the first year Trump was originally in office — which Democrats made competitive. All were closer than they should have been. But Democrats didn’t win any of them. Still, astute political observers suggested there was unpopularity with the president and the GOP agenda. Democrats won 40 seats and gained control of the House in the 2017 midterms.
So, even if Van Epps wins, examine the margin. And if Behn wins, see if Republicans downplay it because it was a special election and the customary electorate just doesn’t turn out for special elections. Especially one wedged between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
If Republicans hold the seat, the GOP will argue this was a repudiation of a leftist like Behn and someone who was out of step. They will also suggest that it’s a GOP seat and Republicans should win anyway. That’s what happened earlier this year when there was consternation before two Florida special elections. But Florida Republican Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis both won in March.
Here’s another factor which bears watching: the message the press corps and political observers glean from the election results. After all, special elections are always special. It’s natural for analysts and journalists to search for particular meanings or signposts in these contests. Such was the case with the off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City. Sometimes these observations are spot-on. Other times, they mean nothing. If anything, there is a tendency to over-illuminate the outcomes of these contests. They are moments in time. Kind of like listening to a few bars of a song. Maybe it tells you a lot about the song. Maybe not.
SETTING THE STAGE: WHAT THE 2025 ELECTIONS SIGNAL FOR NEXT YEAR’S MIDTERM SHOWDOWNS
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after speaking to troops via video from his Mar-a-Lago estate on Thanksgiving, Nov. 27, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. (Alex Brandon/AP Photo)
House Republicans could well freak out if Behn is victorious. There’s lots of grumbling among Republicans. Some are frustrated by how their leadership handled the government shutdown. And others could follow Green and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and hit the exits early.
This is a fragile time for House Republicans. That’s one reason why a flip of this seat could mean a little bit more.
Still, it’s rare to flip seats in House special elections. Former Rep. Don Cazayoux, D-La., won a special election in a red district in Louisiana in 2008 after former Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., resigned. But current Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., then won that seat in the general election and served in the House before moving to the Senate.
Former Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, flipped the seat held by former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, in 2022. But she lost re-election that fall.
Former Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., won a special election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., resigned just months into office. Garcia held the seat until Rep. George Whitesides, D-Calif., defeated him a year ago.
Former Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, won a special election in Hawaii in 2010 against two Democrats – former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii. But Democrats got the seat back in 2012.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won a special election in 2022 to flip Alaska’s at-large district from red to blue following the death of late Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska. Young held the seat for nearly 50 years. But Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, defeated Peltola last year.
In short, even if someone flips a seat, it’s rare that they have the seat for long. Often, only through the next regular election.
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So a word of caution as you evaluate the election results on Tuesday night. If Republicans hold the seat, that may be expected. If Democrats flip the seat, some will proclaim it’s the second coming of the Music City Miracle.
But frankly, it’s probably not.
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Guerra en Ucrania: Zelenski y Macron buscan un plan de paz en un contexto de corrupción y tensiones
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Andrí Yermak junto a Zelenski. Foto: ReuterEstados Unidos vende armas a Europa para Ucrania
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El hallazgo de un ejemplar completo de uno de los primeros poemarios de Manuel Machado, publicado en Barcelona en 1895 y considerado perdido durante más de un siglo, ha reconfigurado el panorama de la investigación sobre la lírica española de finales del siglo XIX.
Este volumen, que reúne versos del joven poeta sevillano y de su compañero de bohemia Enrique Paradas, permaneció fuera del alcance de los estudiosos hasta que, en enero de 2022, fue adquirido por el bibliófilo y antólogo Manuel Márquez de la Plata a través de una librería anticuaria catalana.
Durante décadas, la comunidad académica creyó que el único vestigio de este poemario era un ejemplar incompleto conservado en la Biblioteca Machado de la Institución Fernán González, dependiente de la Real Academia Burgense de Historia y Bellas Artes. A este volumen le faltaban la mayoría de las páginas atribuidas a Manuel Machado, lo que impedía conocer con precisión la extensión y el contenido de su contribución.
Las principales bibliografías, incluida la editada por la Biblioteca Nacional española en 1976, identificaban la obra bajo el título de ‘Etcétera’ y le asignaban 126 páginas, aunque sin advertir la posible ausencia de las últimas hojas. Otras referencias bibliográficas de los años setenta repetían el mismo título y, en algún caso, calificaban un ejemplar completo como un “volumen inencontrable”.
La confusión sobre el título y la integridad del poemario se mantuvo hasta el otoño de 1979, cuando el poeta y profesor Miguel d’Ors, tras analizar el ejemplar mutilado de Burgos, publicó en la revista académica Cuadernos de Investigación Filológica de la Universidad de La Rioja un artículo titulado “Donde se enmienda un error de las bibliografías Manuelmachadinas”.
En ese texto, d’Ors aclaró que el libro, firmado “Paradas-Machado”, no se llamaba Etcétera, sino & Versos, y que en la cubierta figuraba como & Colección de poesías. D’Ors interpretó el uso del símbolo “&” como una muestra del gusto personal de Machado por los títulos singulares, recordando otros poemas suyos titulados con signos como ‘¡…!’, ‘***’ y ‘….?’.
El análisis de d’Ors aportó detalles sobre la mutilación del ejemplar de Burgos: de las 126 páginas, las 120 primeras correspondían a versos de Paradas, mientras que las seis restantes incluían el nombre de Manuel Machado, el encabezado de una posible sección titulada ‘Bocetos’ y un único poema, ‘Ruinas’, ya publicado en el primer poemario conjunto del año anterior, ‘Tristes y alegres’.
D’Ors dedujo que resultaba improbable que la aportación de Machado se limitara a seis páginas y un solo poema, por lo que era evidente que faltaba una parte sustancial del libro. En su artículo, animó a los investigadores a buscar el poemario perdido en las bibliotecas, pero advirtió que debían rastrearlo bajo el título “&” y no “Etcétera”. A pesar de este llamamiento, ni entonces ni tras la reedición de su artículo en el libro Estudios sobre Manuel Machado (Renacimiento, 2000), se tuvo noticia de la aparición de un ejemplar íntegro.
La situación cambió radicalmente a comienzos de 2022, cuando Manuel Márquez de la Plata localizó el poemario en una oferta en línea de una librería anticuaria catalana, que lo vendía por unos pocos cientos de euros. Tras adquirirlo, comprobó que el volumen, impreso en 1895, constaba de 191 páginas, es decir, 65 páginas más que el ejemplar mutilado de Burgos.
Las poesías de Machado ocupaban desde la página 121 hasta la 191 y estaban divididas en dos secciones: ‘Bocetos’ y ‘Poesías en prosa’. En total, los versos del poeta sevillano en este poemario superaban los ochenta. Aproximadamente la mitad de estos poemas ya habían aparecido en publicaciones de la época, como La Caricatura, o fueron incluidos posteriormente en otros libros de Machado, pero la otra mitad no figuraba —al menos con el mismo inicio— en las últimas Poesías Completas publicadas en 2019 por la editorial Renacimiento.
Márquez de la Plata, movido por su admiración hacia Miguel d’Ors y en agradecimiento por los momentos de satisfacción que le habían proporcionado sus escritos, decidió enviarle por correo certificado una fotocopia de las páginas con las poesías de Machado. D’Ors, ya jubilado y residente en Galicia, recibió el envío con sorpresa y entusiasmo, y lo incorporó a su colección de primeras ediciones de su poeta favorito, a quien había dedicado años de estudio.
Tres años después, en la primavera de 2025, el periodista y escritor Víctor Olmos, que trabaja en una biografía de Manuel Machado, contactó telefónicamente con d’Ors para consultarle sobre el poemario. Durante la conversación, d’Ors le reveló que, gracias a Márquez de la Plata, disponía de una fotocopia de las páginas del libro supuestamente perdido y le relató cómo había llegado a sus manos.
Olmos, a punto de cumplir noventa años y con experiencia periodística, intuyó que el ejemplar podría ser único y constituir una primicia literaria, ya que, en el ámbito de la bibliografía, nada es definitivo, pero no se tiene constancia de otro ejemplar.
Olmos sugirió a d’Ors que narrara la historia del poemario perdido y hallado en algún medio, especialmente en un momento en que los Machado acaparaban la atención pública tras la exposición Los Machado. Retrato de Familia, celebrada en Sevilla, Burgos y Madrid.
D’Ors consideró que la iniciativa correspondía a su propietario, Márquez de la Plata. Finalmente, Olmos se puso en contacto con él, quien aceptó la propuesta de informar sobre la existencia del poemario para conocimiento de expertos, biógrafos y bibliógrafos machadianos.
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