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US eyes seizing Iran’s oil lifeline — but it may not cripple Tehran

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U.S. officials and analysts are weighing whether seizing Iran’s main oil export hub could deal a crippling financial blow — but experts warn the high-risk move may not shut off Tehran’s revenue as quickly or completely as expected.

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Analysts say U.S. planners face a high-stakes decision: whether seizing Kharg Island would actually disrupt Iran’s oil revenue or leave key export flows intact while exposing American forces to sustained attack. Options under discussion range from interdicting tankers at sea to striking export infrastructure from the air, approaches some argue could pressure Tehran’s finances without putting troops on the ground.

«There’s a big debate going on right now,» R.P. Newman, Marine veteran and counterterrorism analyst, told Fox News Digital. 

Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it one of the most strategically significant energy nodes in the region and a central pressure point for any effort to economically squeeze Tehran.

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«We certainly have the ability, military wise, to take it,» said R.P. Newman, a Marine veteran and counter-terrorism analyst. 

Some analysts argue that taking Kharg could deliver an immediate economic shock, cutting off the regime’s primary source of oil revenue and potentially giving Washington leverage in broader negotiations. 

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But such an operation would not be simple.

«It would take thousands to do that,» he said.

U.S. forces already have struck the island hitting more than 90 Iranian military targets, including missile and naval mine facilities, earlier in March while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure, leaving export operations largely intact.

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Retired Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, said the same objective could be achieved without putting U.S. forces on the island.

U.S. officials and analysts are weighing whether seizing Iran’s main oil export hub could deal a crippling financial blow — but experts warn the high-risk move may not shut off Tehran’s revenue as quickly or completely as expected. (Elif Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)

«You could achieve that desired outcome just by constraining the flow that comes out of Kharg after it gets outside the Gulf,» Donegan said.

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«You could stop every ship that comes out,» he added.

Robbins said the U.S. could also disable Kharg’s export capability with air power rather than seizing it outright.

An influx of thousands of troops from Marine expeditionary units and the Army’s 82nd airborne division has raised speculation that a ground operation could be on the way. 

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But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday U.S. operations could wrap in «weeks, not months» and without ground troops. 

«We are ahead of schedule on most of (the objectives), and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any,» Rubio told reporters during a trip to Paris for a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers.

Even if U.S. forces were able to seize the island, some analysts warn the economic impact would not be immediate.

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«The desired full economic effect of taking Kharg Island is going to be a delayed effect if you don’t also seize underway tankers,» said Gregory Brew, analyst at the Eurasia Group, said. 

Any operation targeting Kharg would strike at one of Iran’s most critical economic assets.

«Sales of petroleum products have generally covered between 30 and 40% of the official state budget,» Brew said. «There’s no question the state budget will take a significant hit.»

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But a loss of oil revenue would not necessarily cripple the regime’s core power structure.

«The IRGC has what is in effect a shadow budget,» Brew said. «If anything, its relative position may improve.»

That means that while the government’s official budget would shrink, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could retain a larger share of the country’s remaining resources through its independent revenue streams.

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Export oil pipelines run across an industrial facility on Kharg Island along Iran’s Persian Gulf coast.

Export oil pipelines are seen at an oil facility on Kharg Island, on the shore of the Gulf. (Str/AFP Via Getty Images)

Even if Kharg were taken offline, Iran would retain other ways to keep exports flowing.

«Iran does have four other export facilities,» Brew said.

Its terminal at Jask, Iran, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, «can handle around one-fifth of the volume of oil that can be exported from Kharg.»

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«Stopping completely would require interdicting that traffic as well,» Brew added. 

That means any effort to fully choke off Iran’s oil exports would likely extend beyond Kharg, requiring action against multiple export routes and facilities.

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Sustaining the island would prove difficult as well, putting U.S. forces on a sea-locked target within range of Iranian drones, rockets and missiles from the mainland.

«Any deployment to the island will be vulnerable to Iranian counterattack,» Brew said.

Smoke billows after airstrikes on oil depots in Tehran, Iran.

11 days in, here’s where U.S. operations in Iran stand. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

«They would be a very small force, very exposed,» said James Robbins, dean of the Institute of World Politics and a former adviser to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

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Beyond the initial assault, sustaining forces on the island would present additional challenges.

«Once the guys are on the ground, then you have to support them and that would be extremely hard,» Robbins said.

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Some analysts also question what a successful seizure would ultimately achieve.

«To what end would be the question,» Robbins said. «I don’t see an endgame to that, to seizing Kharg.»

President Donald Trump has publicly announced a reprieve on strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6, citing «progress» in negotiations with Iran. 

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But Iranian officials have accused the president of «psychological warfare» and expressed skepticism. 

Iran already has begun preparing for a potential Kharg invasion, moving additional forces, bolstering air defenses and laying mines and other traps around the island, including along potential landing areas, sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

The Pentagon and the Iranian mission to the United Nations could not immediately be reached for comment. 

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Ugandan military chief vows to back Israel against Iran in viral social media barrage

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Uganda’s military chief has warned the African country’s armed forces could enter the Iran war on Israel’s side after issuing a series of statements on social media that went viral this week.

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Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba — son of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni — who is considered to be his likely successor, has spent this week making a barrage of posts on X in support of Israel.

«We stand with Israel because we are Christians,» he wrote, adding in another post, «Uganda is the David that was forgotten and neglected by the world. We will defeat the giant, Goliath.»

INSIDE THE ISRAELI DRONE UNIT TAKING ON IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH

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Kainerugaba began his social media blitz with, «We want the war in the Middle East to end now. The world is tired of it. But any talk of destroying or defeating Israel will bring us into the war. On the side of Israel!»

Uganda has 45,000 active military personnel in the Uganda People’s Defense Force (UPDF), with around 35,000 reserves, according to its ministry of defense. It’s estimated to have approximately 240 tanks and over 1,000 armored fighting vehicles.

The nation is also heavily involved militarily in conflict-affected countries. Its soldiers fight as part of an African Union force against Islamist al-Shabab terrorists in Somalia. Their army is also still operating in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) against the Islamic State-linked ADF terrorist group.

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While Iran is not known to have any interests in Uganda, it has been accused of covert operations in neighboring Kenya and Tanzania, including the running of smuggling networks and making controversial diplomatic and economic outreach with questionable motives throughout the region. Although landlocked, Uganda is said to be wary of Iran’s strategic interest in gaining a presence in the regional waters of the Indian Ocean and Red Sea.

NEXT MOVE ON IRAN: SEIZE KHARG ISLAND, SECURE URANIUM OR RISK GROUND WAR ESCALATION

Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba of the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) attends his military decoration ceremony at the Bombo Military Barracks, in Bombo, Luweero District, Uganda Oct. 10, 2022.  (Abubaker Lubowa/Reuters)

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In another post he stated, «Israel stood with us when we were nobodies in the 1980s and 1990s. Why wouldn’t we defend her now that our GDP is $100 billion? One of the largest in Africa.»

Israel has historically trained Ugandan forces, including the general. It is understood that Uganda maintains a strong strategic partnership with Israel, with close security and intelligence ties.

Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets in Israel

Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, as seen from the city of Ashkelon, Israel, Oct. 9, 2023.  (Amir Cohen/Reuters)

It wasn’t always like this. In 1976, with dictator Idi Amin aggressively opposing Israel, four terrorists hijacked Air France Flight 139 on its way from Tel Aviv to France. The plane was diverted to Entebbe Airport in Uganda. During the night of July 3, 1976, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) mounted a long-range rescue mission, originally codenamed Operation Thunderbolt, to rescue 106 mostly Israeli hostages being held.

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The mission was retroactively renamed Operation Yonatan after the mission’s leader, Lt. Col. Yonatan «Yoni» Netanyahu, the elder brother of the current Israeli Prime Minister, was killed by a Ugandan sniper during the raid. The Israeli soldiers pulled off a successful rescue, but four hostages, seven hijackers and 45 Ugandan soldiers were killed.

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Kainerugaba announced that in a further gesture of goodwill toward Israel, he intends to have a statue of Yonatan Netanyahu erected at the exact spot in Entebbe’s airport where he fell. This week, Kainerugaba posted a photo of the statue on X, dubbing it «a sneak peek.»

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Soros-backed group among liberal orgs pumping eye-popping cash into Virginia gerrymandering effort

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A group fighting to get Virginia voters to approve an April 21 referendum to let Democrats in the state redraw its congressional maps is being pumped with liberal cash, receiving over $38 million from less than a dozen left-wing entities over the last three months, including from the George Soros-backed Fund For Policy Reform Inc.

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The Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) tracks state spending in Virginia and, according to its database, Virginians for Fair Elections has received $5 million from the Soros-funded and founded entity, which is within his Open Society Foundations Network of groups known for pushing liberal causes. 

Soros’ latest cause is a massive gerrymandering effort in Virginia, where the state’s congressional delegation could go from effectively 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans, to 10-Democratic-leaning districts and one Republican-leaning district, per VPAP. Virginians for Fair Elections is one of the main vehicles pushing Virginia voters to vote «yes» on April 21 to redraw the state’s maps. Virginia’s decision to redraw its maps came after mid-decade redistricting efforts by Republicans in Texas, which significantly changed the state’s electoral maps.

VIRGINIA DEM ADMITS REDISTRICTING PUSH AIMS TO ‘STOP TRUMP’, NOT ABOUT ‘FAIRNESS’

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George Soros pictured on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2020. (Simon Dawson/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Tens of millions of dollars have been pumped into the state of Virginia ahead of the April 21 referendum vote, with the vast majority going to the Democratic side of the issue.

Besides money from Soros’ network, in 2026, Virginians for Fair elections received $20 million from the nonprofit counterpart of House Democrats’ House Majority PAC, $100,000 from Sen. Tim Kaine’s, D-Va., leadership PAC, a little over $10 million from the progressive nonprofit that funds ballot initiatives nationwide, The Fairness Project, almost $500,000 from the Democratic Party of Virginia, $1 million from the Global Impact Social Welfare Fund, $1 million from a group called American Opportunity Action, and then several other smaller donations from wealthy liberal backers.

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The main group opposing redistricting, Virginians For Fair Maps, has only raised a little over $3 million from just two donors in 2026. $560,000 came from the Republican Party of Virginia while the remaining $2.5 million came from a group by the same name, Virginians for Fair Maps, according to VPAP. 

OBAMA ENDORSES VIRGINIA REDISTRICTING CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT THAT COULD HELP DEMS GAIN 4 SEATS

Virginia State Capitol

If passed, HB 863 would eliminate minimum sentencing for manslaughter, rape, possession and distribution of child pornography, assaulting a law enforcement officer and other repeat violent felonies.   (iStock)

Despite the fundraising advantage, the referendum is still expected to be close. Since polls opened March 6 for early voting, turnout in Republican-heavy counties has been high compared to the state’s election turnout in November, when Democrats performed very well and Spanberger took over the Governor’s mansion, while Jones took over the attorney general’s Office.

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Democrats in the state have reportedly been urging Spanberger to get more assertive in the redistricting effort.

Democrat Beth Macy, who is running for Congress in one of the five House districts currently held by Republicans, said Virginia Democrats «gotta stop bringing a spork to a knife fight,» according to Politico. She added that it would be «helpful» for Spanberger «to be the spokesperson on redistricting because she did so well and won by so much.»

Soros’ network of groups and PACs has also been a powerful force behind supporting dozens of far-left district attorneys, such as the formerly recalled San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, Chicago’s Kim Foxx, and L.A.’s George Gascon. In 2022, 1 in 5 Americans were represented by a Soros-linked prosecutor, according to data from the Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund. 

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In Virginia, Soros’ Democracy PAC donated at least $500K to help Spanberger become governor and to help Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones, who fantasized about killing his Republican rival and his family, get elected. His PACs have also donated millions to the campaign coffers of far-left district attorneys in Virginia.

Abigail Spanberger speaks

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger offers the Democratic response to the State of the Union. (Mike Kropf/Getty Images)

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Fox News Digital reached out to Soros’ Open Society Foundations and the other top donors pumping millions into the redistricting battle, but did not receive a response from Soros’ group ahead of publication.

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«No one wanted to take this action, but in a democracy, we can’t let entire states rig their congressional maps just to bend to the will of one person. We have to respond. This amendment is a temporary, one-time exception that gives Virginia voters a voice and meets the needs of the current moment, while ensuring Virginia’s bipartisan redistricting process will resume after the 2030 census,» Alexis Magnan-Callaway, a spokesperson for The Fairness Project, told Fox News digital. 

«The ballot measure allows Virginia voters, not politicians, to decide for themselves whether they want new, temporary districts,» she continued. «This isn’t about favoring one party over another. This is about restoring fairness across the board by temporarily changing Virginia’s congressional districts.»

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La FAO destaca el liderazgo de las mujeres rurales en la agricultura salvadoreña

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La FAO destaca el liderazgo de las mujeres rurales en la agricultura salvadoreña durante el encuentro «Año de la Agricultora» en Morazán./(FAO El Salvador)

La Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura (FAO) en El Salvador ha puesto en primer plano el papel fundamental de las mujeres rurales en la agricultura, a través de un encuentro celebrado en el departamento de Morazán. La actividad, realizada en el marco del “Año de la Agricultora”, reunió a lideresas, autoridades locales, instituciones gubernamentales y organizaciones aliadas, con el objetivo de fortalecer la resiliencia en los sistemas agroalimentarios frente al cambio climático y visibilizar el liderazgo de las agricultoras salvadoreñas.

Durante el evento, denominado “Agricultoras cultivando resiliencia en los sistemas agroalimentarios”, se compartieron experiencias sobre la conservación e intercambio de semillas, el manejo de viveros comunitarios, la restauración de ecosistemas y la implementación de prácticas agrícolas resilientes. Estas acciones buscan no solo garantizar la seguridad alimentaria en comunidades rurales, sino también preservar la biodiversidad y promover la adaptación al clima en una de las regiones más vulnerables del país.

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Uno de los ejes centrales del encuentro fue la exposición de resultados y aprendizajes del proyecto RECLIMA, una iniciativa emblemática en el corredor seco de El Salvador. Este proyecto, ejecutado por la FAO en coordinación con los ministerios de Agricultura y Ganadería, Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, el Centro Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria y Forestal (CENTA), la Fundación para la Restauración de Ecosistemas y la Adaptación al Cambio Climático (FIAES) y con financiamiento del Fondo Verde para el Clima (GCF), ha logrado beneficiar a más de 50,000 familias agricultoras en todo el país.

La conservación e intercambio de semillas adaptadas al cambio climático aseguran seguridad alimentaria y biodiversidad en comunidades rurales./(FAO El Salvador)
La conservación e intercambio de semillas adaptadas al cambio climático aseguran seguridad alimentaria y biodiversidad en comunidades rurales./(FAO El Salvador)

El enfoque de RECLIMA prioriza la participación y liderazgo de las mujeres en el desarrollo rural. En Morazán, 152 mujeres han asumido el rol de promotoras comunitarias, encargándose de replicar conocimientos y prácticas innovadoras en sus comunidades. Además, 9,109 mujeres han participado en jornadas de restauración de ecosistemas degradados, y 1,041 han mejorado su acceso al agua mediante sistemas de cosecha de agua lluvia domiciliaria, lo que representa un avance significativo en la autonomía y bienestar de las familias rurales.

Durante la jornada, las participantes intercambiaron semillas criollas y variedades adaptadas al cambio climático, exhibieron productos agrícolas diversificados y compartieron técnicas para el manejo sostenible de viveros comunitarios. La restauración de ecosistemas y la promoción de prácticas agrícolas resilientes fueron temas centrales, resaltando la importancia de la diversificación productiva y la integración de conocimientos ancestrales con innovaciones tecnológicas.

La FAO subrayó que el liderazgo de las mujeres rurales es clave para enfrentar los desafíos del cambio climático y garantizar la seguridad alimentaria en El Salvador. En el encuentro, las agricultoras destacaron la necesidad de continuar fortaleciendo redes de apoyo, acceso a recursos y capacitación técnica para consolidar su papel como agentes de cambio en las comunidades.

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Más de 9,000 mujeres participan en jornadas de restauración de ecosistemas y mejoran el acceso al agua con sistemas de cosecha de lluvia./(FAO El Salvador)
Más de 9,000 mujeres participan en jornadas de restauración de ecosistemas y mejoran el acceso al agua con sistemas de cosecha de lluvia./(FAO El Salvador)

El proyecto RECLIMA también ha impulsado la creación de espacios de diálogo y aprendizaje entre mujeres agricultoras, permitiendo la identificación de retos, el intercambio de soluciones y la construcción colectiva de estrategias de adaptación. Las autoridades presentes coincidieron en que la participación activa de las mujeres es esencial para alcanzar la sostenibilidad y resiliencia de los sistemas agroalimentarios, especialmente en zonas afectadas por sequías recurrentes y degradación ambiental.

La experiencia de Morazán refleja el impacto positivo de la colaboración entre instituciones estatales, organismos internacionales y comunidades rurales. La FAO reiteró su compromiso de seguir promoviendo la igualdad de género, la inclusión y la sostenibilidad en el sector agropecuario, reconociendo el aporte invaluable de las mujeres rurales en la construcción de un futuro más justo y resiliente para El Salvador.



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