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WH study warns 9 million Americans could lose health insurance in ‘major’ recession if Trump budget bill fails

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The White House on Saturday released a study estimating that 8.2 to 9.2 million more Americans could be without health insurance as a result of an ensuing recession if President Donald Trump’s «big, beautiful bill» on the budget does not pass. 

The finding comes from a White House Council of Economic Advisers memo titled, «Health Insurance Opportunity Cost if 2025 Proposed Budget Reconciliation Bill Does Not Pass.» 

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The research assumes that the U.S. had approximately 27 million uninsured people in 2025. If the budget bill does not pass, that could increase to approximately 36 million uninsured people, far closer to the approximately 50 million people who were uninsured before the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, in 2010, according to the memo.

‘FAILURE’S NOT AN OPTION’: TRUMP BUDGET BILL WILL BE ‘BIG’ HELP FOR SENIORS, TOP HOUSE TAX-WRITER SAYS

President Donald Trump during a swearing-in ceremony of Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., May 6, 2025. (REUTERS/Kent Nishimura/File Photo)

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The memo says the estimate is «based on the assumption that states which expanded Medicaid with relatively generous eligibility will pull back to meet balanced budget requirements and try to provide more unemployment support during a severe recession.» It also qualifies its conclusions by saying the analysis assumes «no policy countermeasures,» which the White House describes as a «very unlikely but plausible worse case» scenario. 

The White House projects that the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts in 2026 and other shocks would trigger a «moderate to severe recession.» The economic advisers report that a «major recession» would result in reduced consumer spending as a result of higher individual taxes, lower small business investment and hiring as a result higher pass-through individual taxes, global confidence shock including concerns about U.S. competitiveness, and dollar deflation tightening credit and pushing real interest rates higher. 

Trump dances at a rally in front of a no tax on overtime sign

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump dances at a campaign event at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Centre, Oct. 15, 2024, in Atlanta.  (AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)

GOP REBEL MUTINY THREATENS TO DERAIL TRUMP’S ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ BEFORE KEY COMMITTEE HURDLE

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According to the advisers’ «upper bound» estimate of the impact of not extending the Trump tax cuts, U.S. GDP could contract by approximately 4% over two years – similar to the 2008 recession. Unemployment could increase by four percentage points, resulting in approximately 6.5 million job losses. Of those 6.5 million job losses, 60% had employer-sponsored insurance, so the White House projects approximately 3.9 million people would lose coverage and become uninsured as a result. 

The memo also anticipates a loss of individual and marketplace coverage, as those already without employer-sponsored insurance are no longer able to afford to purchase insurance themselves. The White House expects a 15% drop from approximately 22 million enrolled in 2026 to approximately 3.3 million losing coverage. 

Mike Johnson speaks at press conference

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks during a news conference at the Capitol, May 6, 2025, in Washington.  (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr., File)

Without the passage of the «big, beautiful bill,» Medicaid and ACA subsidized plan enrollment could experience 10% enrollment frictions, resulting in approximately 500,000 to 1 million people losing or failing to gain coverage, the memo states. The expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts would disproportionately affect non-citizens, gig workers and early retirees, according to the White House. The advisers assess that individuals in those working classes without employer-sponsored insurance would no longer be able to afford coverage as a result of a recession, leading to 500,000 to 1 million insurance losses among «vulnerable segments.»

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House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is laboring to get the «One Big Beautiful Act» through the House by a self-imposed Memorial Day deadline despite divisions among Republicans, who maintain control of the lower chamber by a razor-thin margin. 

The 1,116-page bill includes more than $5 trillion in tax cuts, costs that are partially offset by spending cuts elsewhere and other changes in the tax code, and would make permanent the tax cuts from Trump’s first term. 

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It also realizes many of Trump‘s campaign promises, including temporarily ending taxes on overtime and tips for many workers, creating a new $10,000 tax break on auto loan interest for American-made cars, and even creating a new tax-free «MAGA account» that would contribute $1,000 to children born in his second term.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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Modern Love: Un apagón hizo que lo nuestro fuera posible

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Cuando estaba penosamente soltero entre los 20 y los 30 años y vivía en un garage reconvertido en Chicago, me preocupaba la primera impresión que una posible pareja se llevaría de mí.

La puerta trasera de la cochera era mi puerta principal, lo que significaba que tenía que guiar a la persona con la que tenía una cita por el callejón, pasar junto a los contenedores de basura y atravesar el olor a podrido para llegar a mi casa.

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En verano, los olores a veces incluso nos seguían al interior.

Durante un tiempo después de mudarme, la gente llamaba a mi puerta pensando que yo era el inquilino anterior, que al parecer había sido un traficante de drogas local.

No fue exactamente el nuevo comienzo romántico que había imaginado tras una ruptura.

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Soy artista y profesor, y la primera habitación de la cochera era mi estudio, lleno de obras en curso, lo que he llegado a considerar un tipo diferente de basura, una muestra visual de mis inseguridades y tendencias neuróticas.

Una metáfora viviente de todo lo que se agitaba en mi mundo privado.

Cuando traía a casa a una cita, siempre me apresuraba a atravesar esa primera habitación para llegar a la segunda, a fin de evitar preguntas innecesarias o posibles retrocesos antes de desvestirme y poner manos a la obra.

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Kevin fue uno de los primeros hombres a los que permití entrar en mi espacio.

Era un analista de datos bienintencionado que realmente quería saber a qué me dedicaba.

Cuando echó un vistazo a mi estudio, frunció el ceño.

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“¿Este es tu trabajo?”, me preguntó.

“¿Esto es lo que haces todo el día cuando la mayoría de la gente está trabajando?”.

Me reí, pero me morí un poco por dentro.

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Durante mucho tiempo, luché con el temor de que si alguien solo veía el callejón, la basura y lo extraño del espacio, asumiría que yo era un perdedor.

Un tipo de unos 30 años que vivía en una cochera reconvertida detrás de un contenedor de basura.

No tenía un trabajo ascendente.

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No tenía una narrativa limpia.

Hablo mucho de esto con mis alumnos, de cómo ser artista puede resultar genial a los 20 años, pero a medida que envejeces, el encanto desaparece.

La gente deja de preguntarte por tu proceso y empieza a preguntarse si has fracasado.

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Si te quedas el tiempo suficiente, empiezan a darte premios por resistencia, por sobrevivir al estilo de vida.

Pero aún así: ¿por qué alguien que roza los 50, como yo, elegiría vivir en un callejón?

Tardé años en comprender cuál era el ímpetu por el que hacía arte, y para quién.

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Cuando era estudiante de posgrado en la Escuela del Instituto de Arte de Chicago, en una presentación de grupo el primer día, todo el mundo pronunciaba sus pulidas frases iniciales.

“Mi obra explora las estructuras posmodernas de la identidad feminista” o “Me interesan las implicaciones del espacio minimalista en el paisaje”.

Cuando llegó mi turno, dije:

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“Hago arte porque quiero gustarle a la gente”.

Mi instructor hizo una pausa y dijo:

“Esa es la primera respuesta sincera a esa pregunta”.

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Ese anhelo —gustar, no necesariamente ser comprendido— nunca me abandonó del todo.

Sobre todo en lo que respecta a las citas.

El anhelo de aceptación incondicional no se desvanece en el plano personal solo porque el profesional empiece a tener mejor aspecto.

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Con el paso de los años, a través de una serie de contactos perdidos y malas citas, arraigó un miedo más silencioso:

Demasiado intenso. Demasiado, bueno, demasiado yo.

En distintos momentos, intenté dar sentido a mi ansia de amor y a mi necesidad creativa de soledad mirando a los demás.

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Busqué refugio en mi tía Katie, mi madrina y monja ursulina, que hablaba del empoderamiento y la liberación que se encuentran en el celibato.

Había consuelo en su devoción, en la sensación de que la soledad podía ser sagrada, no vergonzosa.

Pero somos humanos; yo era humano.

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Y también cachondo, aunque anhelaba algo más que una conexión rápida.

Al mismo tiempo, mi terapeuta me dio algunos consejos que me acompañaron durante mis citas y mis largos períodos de soledad.

No todo tiene por qué ser perfecto con la persona con la que sales.

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Puedes notar las imperfecciones.

Lo que hacemos en las relaciones es practicar, ensayar e incluso sanar nuestras desconexiones anteriores.

Estar en una relación significa que dos personas siguen apareciendo.

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Cuando una persona decide no aparecer, es cuando todo se desvanece.

Así que me dije a mí mismo:

Cuando conocí a Ed, realmente quería que funcionara.

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Lo que significaba que temía aún más llevarlo a casa.

Si leía las señales demasiado rápido —el callejón de la basura, sin muebles, virutas de lápices de colores bajo mis uñas—, podría pensar que no tenía mi vida resuelta.

Ed era diez años mayor que yo.

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Al principio, supuse que se trataba de una situación de amistad.

Era cálido pero comedido.

Puse su nombre en mi teléfono como “Ed, el banquero”.

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La falta de apellido lo mantenía informal.

Lo poco que había en juego facilitaba la gestión de mis sentimientos.

La noche que lo llevé a casa, Ed cumplía 50 años.

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No había planeado cargar con ese tipo de presión tan pronto, pero se acercaba Halloween y pensé:

¿Por qué no ponerme un disfraz y fingir que era lo bastante adulto para mantener una relación adulta?

Sugirió que fuéramos a comer tacos a su chacinería favorita de Pilsen.

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Al parecer, le regalé un poema hablado como regalo de cumpleaños; me carcome la vergüenza al pensar en lo que pude haber dicho.

Cuando nos acercábamos a mi casa, le conté lo de siempre.

El callejón, la cochera reconvertida, el contenedor y el descargo de responsabilidad:

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Estos sitios son difíciles de encontrar, ¿sabes? Porque este tipo me gustaba de verdad. Y estaba esperando que me juzgara.

No obstante, esa noche hubo un apagón en todo Chicago. Intenté utilizarlo como pretexto —quizá deberíamos dejarlo para otro día—, pero él dijo que no le importaba.

Nos abrimos paso por el callejón en la oscuridad, y bromeó: “No vas a matarme, ¿verdad?”.

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Aquella noche, en la oscuridad, algo cambió.

Sin luces, sin el resplandor de ser observado por alguien nuevo, no me sentí expuesto.

Entramos a trompicones en mi casa y nos acomodamos sin rituales, sin preguntas sobre el arte ni cumplidos forzados por su parte, ni explicaciones a medias sobre por qué vivía así.

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Solo había oscuridad y tranquilidad.

Aquella noche ocurrió algo que no esperaba:

En la tranquilidad, en la oscuridad, con alguien a quien de repente no creía tener que impresionar, sentí algo que nunca antes había asociado con el amor.

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Tardé años en comprender que los pensamientos acelerados, las vueltas de estómago y la necesidad de actuar que solía interpretar como amor eran en realidad mi cuerpo intentando avisarme.

Era mi sistema nervioso que gritaba:

Recordé los largos viajes en tren a casa durante mis años en Brooklyn, llorando tras una pelea con mi primer amante.

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En esos momentos me preguntaba:

¿Por qué no era yo suficiente?

Más tarde pasó a mi siguiente y breve relación.

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También aspirante a artista, me señalaba las manchas en los pantalones de jean de una pincelada accidental cuando salíamos a cenar, y sugería que aquel desastre no era encantador, ni presentable.

Seguía confundiendo la ansiedad con mariposas.

La intensidad me resultaba familiar.

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La confusión parecía magnética.

Sin embargo, Ed no me confundía.

No me emocionó con distanciamiento ni me mantuvo adivinando.

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Escuchaba, se quedaba, respondía con prontitud a mis mensajes de texto.

Se acomodó en el espacio sin empequeñecerlo.

Por eso todo se volvió tan real.

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No fueron los tacos, ni el sexo, ni la luz de las velas.

Era estar con alguien que no hacía que mi cuerpo quisiera salir disparado.

Nos protegíamos el uno al otro.

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Por la mañana, cuando volvió la luz, nada había cambiado en mi estudio.

Era el mismo desastre, el mismo yo, ahora totalmente visible.

Pero Ed se quedó, y lleva volviendo a mí más de 10 años.

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Sigue habiendo demasiado desorden.

Los dibujos cubren el suelo y las paredes.

Apenas hay una línea entre donde acaba el trabajo y donde vivo.

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Pero algo en mí ha cambiado.

Los contenedores de basura siguen delante de mi puerta.

Pero ya no me preocupo por eso ni me disculpo por mi vida, o al menos no tanto.

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He aprendido que no se trata de arreglar las cosas.

No se trata de ocultar el desorden ni de alisar los bordes.

Se trata de dejar que todo conviva.

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Creo que así es el amor.

No es una actuación ni un espectáculo.

Simplemente es estar con alguien que te hace sentir seguro en la luz y en la oscuridad.

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Pope Leo says he ‘can’t comment’ on 20-year sentence of Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai

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Pope Leo XIV this week said he «can’t» comment on the 20-year sentence imposed on a democracy activist in Hong Kong. 

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«I can’t comment,» the American-born Leo told EWTN News, which covers Catholic news globally, while speaking to reporters in Italy. 

He added, «Let’s pray for less hatred and more peace and work for authentic dialogue. God bless you all.» 

Hong Kong publisher and democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who is a converted Catholic, was sentenced to 20 years by Beijing last month for violating their 2020 national security law, which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called «unjust and tragic.»

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Pope Leo XIV this week said he «can’t» comment on the 20-year sentence imposed on a democracy activist in Hong Kong.  (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images; Anthony Kwan/Getty Images)

«The conviction shows the world that Beijing will go to extraordinary lengths to silence those who advocate fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong,» Rubio said in a statement. «The United States urges the authorities to grant Mr. Lai humanitarian parole.»

The 78-year-old founded the now-closed Hong Kong-based Apple Daily in 1995, while the island was still under British rule. 

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Lai’s sentence closed one of the country’s most consequential national security cases since Beijing imposed the sweeping new law in 2020 in the wake of months-long anti-Chinese Communist Party protests in 2019, which were sparked by fears Beijing was eroding Hong Kong’s promised autonomy. 

Jimmy Lai resting his chin on his hands

Lai has already been in custody since 2020.  (Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images)

They were followed by a sweeping security crackdown that criminalized dissent and reshaped the city’s legal system.

CHINA PHONY CONVICTION OF JIMMY LAI IS A WARNING

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Lai had been arrested several times during the 2019 protests, and he was detained at his home in 2020. His newspaper was also raided at the time and closed. 

He was found guilty in December of attempting to undermine national security. 

Free Jimmy posters in LA

Jimmy Lai supporters in Los Angeles last month.  (Apu Gomes/Getty Images)

President Donald Trump said in December that he had personally urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to release Lai. 

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«I spoke to President Xi about it, and I asked to consider his release,» Trump said. «He’s not well, he’s an older man, and he’s not well, so I did put that request out. We’ll see what happens.»

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After the strikes, how would the US secure Iran’s enriched uranium?

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When War Secretary Pete Hegseth was asked recently whether U.S. forces would ever move to secure enriched uranium reportedly stored at Iran’s Isfahan nuclear complex, he declined to say, citing operational security.

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The exchange highlighted a question the U.S. and Israel’s air campaign alone cannot answer: even if U.S. strikes degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, who would physically secure the enriched uranium, and how?

Iran is believed to possess a significant stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, near weapons-grade. That material could theoretically be used in multiple nuclear devices if further refined. 

Moving from 60% to weapons-grade 90% enrichment requires additional processing, and weaponization would involve further technical steps. But analysts say the more immediate issue is physical control of the material itself.

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«If the U.S. wants to secure Iran’s nuclear materials, it’s going to require a massive ground operation,» Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told Fox News Digital.

Davenport said the highly enriched uranium believed to be stored at Isfahan appears to be deeply buried and contained in relatively mobile canisters. Securing it would likely require locating the full stockpile, accessing underground facilities and safely extracting or downblending the material.

Satellite imagery taken on Jan. 30, 2026 shows a new roof over a previously destroyed building at the Natanz nuclear site. (2026 PLANET LABS PBC/Handout via Reuters)

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«It’s not even clear the United States knows where all of the uranium is,» she said, noting that the mobility of storage containers raises the possibility that some material could be moved or dispersed.

The administration repeatedly has said preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains a central objective of Operation Epic Fury.

«Ultimately, this issue of Iran’s nuclear pursuit and their unwillingness through negotiations to stop it is something President Trump has said for a long time needs to be dealt with,» Hegseth said.

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Senior administration officials have argued that Iran sought to build up its ballistic missile arsenal in part to create a deterrent shield — enabling Tehran to continue advancing its nuclear program while discouraging outside intervention.

So far, however, the bulk of U.S. strikes have focused on degrading missile launchers, air defenses and other conventional military targets.

Experts note that dismantling missile systems may reduce Iran’s ability to shield a potential nuclear breakout. But physically controlling enriched uranium itself presents a separate and more complex challenge.

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Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility before it was hit with US and Israeli strikes.

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran.  (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

Airstrikes versus physical control

Defense officials have acknowledged that degrading nuclear infrastructure from the air is different from safely managing or securing nuclear material. 

Airstrikes can destroy centrifuges, power systems and support buildings. But enriched uranium stored underground may remain intact unless it is physically secured, removed or verifiably downblended.

Striking or extracting nuclear material also carries safety risks that military planners must weigh. 

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If storage casks containing uranium hexafluoride gas were compromised, the material could pose chemical toxicity risks to personnel entering the site without proper protective equipment. Analysts say a conventional strike is unlikely to trigger a nuclear detonation, but dispersal of material could create localized hazards and complicate recovery efforts.

Chuck DeVore, a former Reagan-era defense official who worked on nuclear issues, argued that directly targeting the stockpile may not be a priority under current battlefield conditions.

«You don’t want to release the material into the surrounding areas and cause radioactive contamination,» DeVore said, adding that deeply buried facilities are difficult to reach from the air. 

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DeVore also downplayed the immediacy of a breakout scenario, arguing that further enrichment, weaponization and delivery would be difficult to execute undetected amid sustained U.S. air operations.

Even if Iran were able to further enrich uranium, he said, assembling a deliverable weapon under active military pressure would present significant technical and operational hurdles.

A map shows nuclear sites in Iran that were struck by the United States during Operation Midnight Hammer.

Trump said that the United States completed a «very successful» strike against Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, saying that Iran’s nuclear enrichment installations have been «obliterated.»  (Fox News)

Still, DeVore acknowledged that long-term control of the uranium would ultimately require a political resolution inside Iran and some form of outside oversight.

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What would securing it require?

Nonproliferation experts say securing enriched uranium generally involves more than military force. It requires verified accounting of the material, sustained access to storage sites and either removal or downblending to lower enrichment levels suitable for civilian use.

Davenport said internationally monitored downblending would be the safest option if political conditions allow.

«The IAEA remains the best place to go back into Iran to monitor the sites, to try to track down and account for the enriched uranium,» she said, describing downblending as a relatively straightforward technical process compared to attempting to extract and transport highly enriched material in a contested environment.

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Both pathways — physical seizure or internationally monitored reduction — depend on conditions that do not currently exist.

Administration officials argue that dismantling Iran’s missile network weakens Iran’s ability to shield a nuclear breakout and reduces the immediate threat to U.S. forces and regional allies.

But suppressing missiles and controlling enriched uranium are separate challenges.

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Destroying infrastructure can slow or disrupt a program. Physically locating, accounting for and securing nuclear material requires sustained access, reliable intelligence and — ultimately — political conditions that allow it.

For now, the administration maintains that Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. How the enriched uranium itself would be secured remains a question without a public answer.

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