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Where Trump stands in the eyes of Americans ahead of the State of the Union address

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President Donald Trump, taking to social media earlier this month, touted, «The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received.»

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«Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!» the president added in a post on his Truth Social platform.

But on the day of his annual State of the Union Address, Trump’s poll numbers remain in negative territory in the vast majority of national surveys.

The president’s approval rating stands at 44% in the latest Fox News national poll, which was conducted late last month, with 56% disapproving of the job he’s doing in the White House.

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And he stood at 39% approval among all adults and 41% among registered voters in an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey conducted Feb 12-17 and released on Sunday.

An average of the most recent surveys conducted over the past four weeks puts Trump’s approval ratings in the low 40s, with disapproval in the mid-50s.

Trump started his second term in positive territory, but his approval ratings sank below water last March and have slowly edged down deeper into negative territory in the ensuing months.

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The latest surveys point to a massive partisan divide, with continued strong support for the president among Republicans, a thumbs down among independents and near total disapproval among Democrats.

FOX NEWS POLL: AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 2026 MIDTERMS

«Support among Republicans has remained in place, but the opposition has become even more calcified,» veteran Republican pollster Daron Shaw told Fox News Digital, as he pointed to Democrats.

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Deep concerns over inflation boosted Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories at the ballot box in 2024, as they won back the White House and Senate and kept their House majority.

President Donald Trump gestures at the end of his speech after touring the Coosa Steel Corporation factory in Rome, Georgia, Feb. 19, 2025.  (Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty Images)

«We had record inflation. We don’t have it anymore,» Trump said at a campaign event last week in Rome, Georgia. «I’m going to make a State of the Union address on Tuesday. I hope you’re going to watch and we’re going to be talking about it.»

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But the president’s approval ratings on the economy are, on average, slightly lower than his overall approval ratings.

DNC CHAIR KEN MARTIN BOASTS ‘WIN AFTER WIN,’ SHRUGS OFF MASSIVE TRUMP, REPUBLICAN MONEY LEAD

And Democrats say their decisive victories in November’s 2025 elections, and their overperformances in special elections and other ballot box showdowns in the year since Trump returned to office, were fueled by their laser focus on affordability amid persistent inflation.

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A slew of surveys, including the latest Fox News polling, indicate Americans are pessimistic about the economy and say things have not generally improved during the second Trump administration.

«He can’t unstick the notion that inflation is too high and that the economy is not moving in the right direction,» added Shaw, who helps run the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.

But Democrats don’t have much to brag about when it comes to the polls.

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The party’s brand dropped to historic lows last year in a slew of polls, with the trend continuing into the new year.

The president’s primetime address in front of Congress comes with just over eight months to go until the midterm elections, when Republicans will be defending their razor-thin majority in the House and their narrow control of the Senate.

Last week, the president’s political team huddled in a closed-door strategy session with Trump administration Cabinet members and their top aides on how best to sell the president’s agenda to voters in this year’s midterm elections.

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TRUMP CHEERS STEADY INFLATION NUMBERS AS AFFORDABILITY FIGHT SHAPES 2026 MIDTERM BATTLE

According to sources familiar with the meeting, the message during a slide presentation by chief pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio was that the economy will be the top issue on the minds of voters, and that the White House needs to spotlight its efforts on easing affordability.

«Team Trump will deploy every resource necessary to win the midterms, protect our majorities, and ensure President Trump keeps delivering results for America’s working families,» a source in the president’s political orbit told Fox News Digital.

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Donald Trump stands at a podium while speaking to a crowd at an indoor rally.

President Donald Trump takes the stage to speak during a rally at the Horizon Events Center in Clive, Iowa, on Jan. 27.  (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Regardless of Trump’s overall approval ratings, he remains very popular and influential with Republicans. And in what may be a base election, the GOP sees the president as their best tool to motivate low-propensity MAGA voters, who don’t always vote when Trump’s not on the ballot, to show up at the polls during the midterms.

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Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters told Fox News Digital last month that Trump was the GOP’s «secret weapon» that will help Republicans «defy history» in the midterms.

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«We got to make sure we turn our voters out, and we got to make sure that we have people energized. And there’s nobody that can energize our base more than President Trump,» Gruters said.

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Speechwriters from Reagan to Biden agree: Trump’s SOTU is a critical test for his second term

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Former White House speechwriters from both parties say President Donald Trump must decide whether to double down on the rally-style politics that powered his campaign or broaden his message to unify a divided country around his governing agenda in his State of the Union address Tuesday night.

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As Trump prepares to speak to the nation and the world, a majority of Americans think the country is worse off today than it was a year ago, according to a recent Fox News survey. The challenge he faces Tuesday night is to persuade skeptical voters that his economic policies are bringing costs down, that tougher immigration enforcement is making the country safer and that he has a disciplined, forward-looking plan for the years ahead — a message that could shape Republicans’ prospects as they head into the 2026 midterm elections with narrow majorities in Congress.

Clark Judge, a speechwriter for President Ronald Reagan and now chairman of the Pacific Research Institute, told Fox News Digital that Trump should address America’s position in the world.

«Threats to the country and to the economy were growing,» Judge said. «Now, in area after area, those threats have been confronted and defeated.»

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President Donald Trump will deliver his fourth State of the Union address across his presidential tenure on Feb. 24, 2026. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Judge said Reagan’s strength was clarity. People «knew where he would come down. One advantage of working with him was that he had been so clear throughout his career on what he was for,» he said.

There are lessons from Reagan that Judge suggested Trump should take to heart. «Know the president, know the administration, know the public — where is the public at any one moment?»

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«Where are the Democrats? What are they trying to do — and how do we disarm their arguments?» he said.

The balance needed in a State of the Union is finding a «middle ground» between the president’s Cabinet fighting for their mentions and «trying to create big, thematic connections,» former Jimmy Carter presidential speechwriter James Fallows told Fox News Digital.

Fallows, the Georgia Democrat’s chief speechwriter during his first two years in office, has since been a book, magazine and Substack writer. He said Trump’s challenge, both now and in his previous addresses, is to unite the country around his agenda, not just please his supporters.

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Trump’s preferred rhetorical style is a rally-style approach — «where he can digress and weave» and create «us versus them» scenarios to rile the audience,» he said, adding that a State of the Union address requires the opposite.

MIKE JOHNSON REVEALS SPECIAL GUESTS FOR TRUMP’S STATE OF THE UNION

President Trump Delivers First Address To Joint Session Of Congress

Lawmakers arrive for a joint session of Congress in the House Chamber of the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, March 4, 2025. Donald Trump’s primetime address Tuesday night from Capitol Hill, billed as a chronicle of his «Renewal of the American Dream,» comes at a critical juncture early in his second term, as voters who elected him to tackle inflation and improve the economy are beginning to weigh the impact of his agenda. (Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Former Joe Biden speechwriter Dan Cluchey expressed skepticism that Trump would be able to rise to the occasion.

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«President Biden has a deep reverence for both the constitutional role of Congress and the dignity of the presidential office, so he approached the State of the Union as an opportunity to rise above the fray and bring Americans together,» Cluchey said, pointing to what the Delawarean considered the «Unity Agenda» laid out in his 2022 address.

When asked what could surprise him about Trump’s Tuesday address, Fallows said sticking to his script would be a novelty.

«[Also,] given what the next day’s news will describe as a ‘big tent speech’» à la Reagan, the Carter speechwriter said.

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Former George W. Bush speechwriter and current Wall Street Journal editorial board member Bill McGurn said presidents do tend to differ, sometimes greatly, from each other in style, contrasting the president with his former boss.

«George W. Bush was very driven by logic — the speech had a flow and had a logic that was coherent.»

«He’d always say, ‘make it so Bubba would understand what that meant’ — don’t dumb it down; but make it so an intelligent person listening can get the idea of what you’re about.»

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Trump, he said, will likely repeat what many presidents often say, that «the State of the Union is strong.»

«Even if it is a laundry list, there’s ways to make it more compelling if you find a unifying thread to it.»

Fallows told Fox News Digital there are many «structural challenges» for any president and his team crafting a State of the Union.

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«So much to cover and only so much time you can hold the attention of even a captive audience.»

Fallows, who now writes «Breaking the News» on Substack, said the SOTU is a rare moment for a president to address the nation as a whole, not just partisan supporters.

BILL MAHER CALLS FOR COMPLETE END TO STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS AHEAD OF TRUMP SPEECH

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Trump in the Capitol

President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address. (Ricky Carioti/Getty Images)

McGurn agreed.

«For all the grandiosity and the important things they cover, they’re usually not remembered,» he said, noting how many more Americans remember Bush’s 9/11 speech or his brief address through a bullhorn atop the rubble of the Twin Towers.

«A dirty little secret is most speech artists hate the State of the Union for the laundry list kind of thing,» he added.

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Sometimes, a State of the Union may not be remembered itself, but it may lead to something much more memorable.

Judge recalled drafting Reagan’s 1988 address, thinking «this is technical and dull — what I need is an image.»

Settling on the phrase, «1,000 sparks of genius in a 1,000 communities,» the line went viral in then-fledgling «dial» polling — to the extent that Reagan’s protégé, the future President George H.W. Bush, borrowed the line for his «Thousand Points of Light» speech, Judge said.

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JOHNSON PRAISES TRUMP’S ‘BOLD ACTION’ IN FORMAL STATE OF THE UNION INVITATION LETTER TO CONGRESS

While the public may not remember everything from every SOTU, the speechwriters collectively said there are parts they still recall today. Cluchey said his best memories are of Biden choosing to share stories of everyday Americans he helped, «in order to illustrate the impact of his policies.»

In other cases, there are times the world takes notice.

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Working with Reagan near the end of his successful bid to stifle the Cold War, Judge said crafting the speech was important not just for Congress in front of him and the American people at home, but everyone at once.

«Behind the cameras are the editors and producers — even if they’re hostile, how do I frame something so it gets through? Behind them is our world leaders — what will catch them and move them in the direction you want?»

With Reagan pushing hard to end the Soviet Union, he was also speaking to both the leaders and those to the East.

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Reagan would later be greeted by Soviet dissidents in public who would tell him, «You don’t know how important that was – the speeches gave us courage.»

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Fallows said that Trump may have to overcome some habits to give an effective address this year.

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«State of the Unions are best in areas that are not Donald Trump’s strengths. They’re meant to be embracing the country as a whole. They’re meant to be delivered from a prompter but without seeming too scripted.»

«We’ll see how this goes.»

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New study proposes major shift in US-Israel strategic partnership approach

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A new study aims to jolt Israel’s security and technology establishment into embracing a new post-Oct. 7, 2023, business model that will advance the U.S.-Israel strategic partnership in the heart of the Middle East and across the globe.

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The Henry Jackson Society study titled «Israel 2048: A Blueprint for a Rising Asymmetric Geopolitical Power» jumps into the future, with a view toward advancing American and Israeli security interests.

Co-author of the report, Barak M. Seener, told Fox News Digital that America requires Israel for «its security architecture in the region via the Abraham Accords and, more broadly, will be a force multiplier regarding the technological edge against China.»

During President Donald Trump’s first term, his administration sealed diplomatic normalization deals between Sunni Gulf and North African countries: Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Sudan and Israel.

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Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles over Tel Aviv, June 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Seener and co-author David Wurmser argue that there is a pressing need to reframe the U.S.–Israel strategic partnership «around technology,» and «shift from military aid dependency towards joint R&D and investment in shared technological platforms in defence-tech, AI, quantum computing and next generational warfare capabilities.»

They wrote, «Israel must prioritize passing negotiated regulations for technology sharing to prevent AI/ quantum technology leakage to China.»

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Seener noted that the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy (released in January) describes Israel as a strategic military partner. «That has never happened before.»

He continued, «Israel is not only achieving regional dominance but international power by connecting trade routes and digital connectivity. Israel simply cannot remain in a purely defensive posture and hunker down and react to threats on its borders.» 

Trump and Netanyahu meet at the White House

President Donald Trump bids farewell to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he leaves the White House after a meeting on April 7, 2025. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Seener said following Israel’s successful air war campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran in June 2025, «America now wants to be part of this success story. «

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He argues that President Donald Trump entered on the side of Israel with military attacks because «Israel demonstrated intelligence acumen and military prowess. For the first time, America joined Israel» in the prosecution of a war.

TRUMP ADMIN LABELS ISRAEL ‘MODEL US ALLY’ AHEAD OF MAJOR MILITARY AID TALKS

Consequently, Seener said Israel’s «defense technology makes it indispensable for nations.»

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Seener and Wurmser’s 51-page study contains granular information on how the U.S. can strengthen American security and recommend embedding «Israel as a defense-tech and deep-tech power that is indispensable to Western security and global technological competition in supply chains for AI, semiconductors, missile defense, cyber capabilities and critical materials. Israel’s technological dominance must be leveraged to anchor alliances and shape global supply chains.»

Israeli fighter jet

This photo taken from a position in northern Israel shows an Israeli Air Force fighter jet firing flares as it flies to intercept a hostile aircraft over the border area with south Lebanon on Aug. 25, 2024. (Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images)

The wobbliness of America’s European partners is also highlighted to show the need for Israel to «Accelerate domestic lines of production of critical military systems, munitions and energy infrastructure to reduce vulnerability to foreign political pressure such as Europe’s growing ambivalence, coupled with episodic constraints on arms transfers,» according to the authors.

Earlier this month, Britain’s left-leaning government reportedly denied the U.S. military’s use of British bases to strike Iran.

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CENTCOM Chief Brad Cooper in Israel

Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, recently visited Israel as the official guest of Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, chief of the general staff. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit.)

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Israel is uniquely positioned to help regenerate relations among Western powers, the study notes. According to the authors, there is an opportunity to «use Israel’s defense-tech, quantum computing, AI and cyber capabilities as a tool of statecraft to deepen alliances, deter political isolation and strengthen influence in Europe, the Gulf and Asia.»

Seener said, «Israel is not a superpower but a geopolitical power that gives nations a force multiplier, and they benefit from Israel as a tech defense nation.»

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Escondida en un bosque y protegida por muros de piedra: así es la mansión donde fue atrapado «El Mencho», el capo narco mexicano

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El operativo que acabo con la muerte del capo narco mexicano Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho”, ocurrió en una de las áreas residenciales más exclusivas de Jalisco: el Tapalpa Country Club.

Según medios locales, el líder del Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) había buscado refugio en una casa de lujo enclavada en la montaña y rodeada de bosque.

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Leé también: Quién era “El Mencho”, el jefe del Cartel de Jalisco y uno de los más temibles líderes narcos de México

“El Mencho” intentó escapar por el jardín y la persecución terminó en el bosque, a pocos metros de la propiedad, donde fue alcanzado por las balas.

La casa se encontraba en el Tapalpa Country Club. (Foto: gentileza El Universal).

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Un refugio de lujo y silencio en la montaña

El escondite de “El Mencho” se ubicaba en el exclusivo Tapalpa Country Club, un desarrollo rodeado de naturaleza, privacidad y silencio.

Así era la casa del capo narco El Mencho en un country de México. (Foto: gentileza Milenio).

Así era la casa del capo narco El Mencho en un country de México. (Foto: gentileza Milenio).

Las tomas aéreas muestran una construcción que, según detalló el sitio Milenio, tiene «dos niveles, arquitectura moderna, techos altos, acabados en madera fina y amplios ventanales».

Desde el aire, la propiedad se ve aislada e integrada al paisaje boscoso. En el interior, los espacios amplios, la iluminación cálida y los muebles de alta gama dominan la escena.

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El Mencho padecía insuficiencia renal y encontraron varios remedios en su habitación. (Foto: gentileza el Universal).

El Mencho padecía insuficiencia renal y encontraron varios remedios en su habitación. (Foto: gentileza el Universal).

La habitación principal, donde se alojaría el capo narco mexicano, cuenta con un colchón y base de tamaño king size.

Las imágenes filtradas en las últimas horas muestran ropa deportiva doblada, medias clasificadas, cremas y aceites acomodados con precisión en el ropero de la casa. No había señales de abandono.

Así era por dentro la casa de Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, en un country de México. (Foto: gentileza el Universal).

Así era por dentro la casa de Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, en un country de México. (Foto: gentileza el Universal).

Sobre una mesa pequeña, un altar con imágenes de San Judas Tadeo y la Virgen de Guadalupe. A un costado, una carta fechada el 25 de enero con un fragmento del salmo 91: “Dígale al Señor: mi amparo, mi refugio, mi Dios, en quien yo pongo mi confianza”.

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Detalles íntimos y símbolos religiosos

En el segundo nivel, había tres habitaciones adicionales, cada una con baño independiente y muebles de madera con acabados finos.

Lámparas colgantes de luz cálida descendían desde el techo, aportando una atmósfera serena que contrastaba con el desenlace violento que ocurriría a pocos metros.

En la casa había símbolos y textos religiosos. (Foto: gentileza Milenio).

En la casa había símbolos y textos religiosos. (Foto: gentileza Milenio).

En la parte trasera, un jardín amplio conectaba con el cerro. Entre la casa y la ladera había unos 500 metros.

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Dos piedras labradas con las figuras de San Judas Tadeo y la Virgen de Guadalupe marcaban el límite entre la propiedad y el bosque.

Fue en esa zona boscosa donde, según el informe oficial presentado por las autoridades, se produjo el enfrentamiento.

Herido de gravedad, Oseguera Cervantes fue trasladado en helicóptero hacia un hospital, pero murió durante el trayecto.

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Un viejo cartel de recompensa de El Mencho (Foto: EFE)

Un viejo cartel de recompensa de El Mencho (Foto: EFE)

Quién era “El Mencho”

“El Mencho” fue el gran responsable de la transformación de una facción criminal incipiente en uno de los más temibles grupos criminales de México.

Era actualmente uno de los narcos mexicanos más buscados y poderosos en su país. De hecho, Estados Unidos había aumentado una recompensa por su captura de US$ 10 a 15 millones.

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes fue abatido cerca de la caza, en un matorral. (Foto: gentileza El Universal).

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes fue abatido cerca de la caza, en un matorral. (Foto: gentileza El Universal).

Los expertos lo consideran el último de los capos narcos mexicanos al estilo de Joaquín el “Chapo” Guzmán e Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, ambos encarcelados en Estados Unidos.

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Leé también: Qué es el Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación y qué puede pasar tras la muerte de “El Mencho”

Una investigación de Insight Crime reveló que El Mencho nació en la llamada Tierra Caliente, en el estado de Michoacán, oeste del país. Emigró a Estados Unidos de niño. Tenía 59 años.

Sus actividades ilícitas se remontan a la década del 90. En 1994, la corte estadounidense del Distrito Norte de California lo condenó a tres años de prisión por conspiración para distribuir heroína.

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Tras cumplir su pena, regresó a México y se incorporó a la policía en Cabo Corrientes y Tomatlán, en el estado de Jalisco, también al oeste del país. Pero su historia como agente duró muy poco. Pronto se unió al Cartel del Milenio.

El Mencho intnetó escparar pero fue abatido cerca de su casa en una zona boscosa. (Foto: gentileza Eje Central).

El Mencho intnetó escparar pero fue abatido cerca de su casa en una zona boscosa. (Foto: gentileza Eje Central).

Comenzó como sicario de Armando Valencia Cornelio, alias “El Maradona”. Así se unió a un bloque de ese grupo aliado a Ignacio Coronel Villarreal, alias “Nacho Coronel”, capo del Cartel de Sinaloa, señaló el reporte.

Además de traficar drogas, actuaban como sicarios del Cartel de Sinaloa en los estados de Jalisco y Colima. Pero tras la muerte de Coronel en 2010 y la captura del líder del Cartel del Milenio, Óscar Orlando Nava Valencia, alias “El Lobo”, el Cartel del Milenio se dividió en dos facciones: “Los Torcidos” y “La Resistencia”.

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“Estas dos divisiones iniciaron una batalla por el control del narcotráfico en Jalisco, y Los Torcidos derivaron en lo que actualmente es el CJNG, con El Mencho como su líder”, recordó Insight Crime.

El Mencho mantenía un férreo control de las actividades del narcotráfico en los estados de Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Veracruz y Chiapas.

Leé también: Por una fuerte tormenta de nieve, el alcalde de Nueva York decretó el toque de queda hasta este lunes

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El cartel se especializó en el tráfico de cocaína, metanfetamina, heroína y fentanilo. Pero también extendió sus operaciones ilícitas al robo de petróleo, trata de personas, extorsión y tráfico de migrantes.

México, Narcotráfico

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