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Tras el debate en Brasil, Lula se acerca a Flávio Bolsonaro en las encuestas y crece la incertidumbre en la recta final de la campaña

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El primer debate presidencial aumentó la incertidumbre en Brasil. A solo seis días del balotaje del domingo próximo, el presidente Lula da Silva acortó aún más la desventaja sobre su rival de derecha Flávio Bolsonaro, según los últimos sondeos divulgados este lunes.

La diferencia a favor del primogénito de Jair Bolsonaro entra en el margen de error en dos de las tres encuestas conocidas hoy.

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Un sondeo de BTG/Nexus reveló que el candidato del Partido Liberal (PL) cuenta con el 50,3% de los votos válidos (que excluyen los sufragios en blanco, nulos e indecisos) contra el 49,7% de Lula. La ventaja a favor del actual senador es de tan solo 0,6% frente a los 3,2 puntos del sondeo anterior divulgado el martes pasado.

Otra encuesta de Atlas/Bloomberg muestra a Bolsonaro con el 51,1% contra el 48,9% de Lula (con una diferencia de 2,2 puntos).

Un tercer sondeo de PoderData/Aya dio a Bolsonaro una ventaja de cuatro puntos (52% a 48%), el único que se muestra por fuera del margen de error.

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La encuestas fueron realizadas antes del debate transmitido por la TV Band.

“Flávio aún tiene cierta ventaja, porque está numéricamente por delante, pero principalmente porque sabemos que la abstención tiende a perjudicar un poco más la candidatura de Lula. Históricamente, la abstención se concentra más entre los votantes de bajos ingresos y con menor poder adquisitivo, donde Lula recibe significativamente más votos que Flávio”, dijo Marcelo Tokarski, director general de Nexus.

En la primera vuelta, celebrada el 4 de este mes, Bolsonaro venció por dos puntos (47% a 45%) sobre Lula. Ambos candidatos mantendrán un segundo debate este viernes, dos días antes del segundo turno.

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Quién ganó el debate

El debate, el primero de la campaña electoral, estuvo plagado de chicanas, denuncias y acusaciones cruzadas de corrupción.

Las propuestas quedaron opacadas ante la profusión de imputaciones y recriminaciones. En el cierre del debate el griterío de la platea, colmada de asesores y simpatizantes, interrumpió las consideraciones finales de ambos candidatos.

Flavio Bolsonaro y Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva debatieron el domingo por la noche en Band TV (Foto: REUTERS/Jean Carniel)

En un principio, Bolsonaro se mostró más seguro y logró desestabilizar a Lula, pero el actual presidente se recompuso y logró emparejar el desarrollo.

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El analista brasileño Rodrigo Toniol destacó a TN que el debate fue seguido de forma masiva en Brasil. “Hoy por la mañana, en las calles, este es uno de los temas de conversación”, indicó.

Según afirmó, “en términos generales, fue un debate violento, absolutamente carente de propuestas y viciado por contenidos diseñados específicamente para convertirse en fragmentos virales en las redes sociales”.

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INTERNACIONAL

Smithsonian screening dispute puts museum’s commitment to diverse views on trial: ‘Right kind of Black?’

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FIRST ON — A Black conservative filmmaker is challenging the Smithsonian to explain why his documentary questioning progressive views on race has yet to secure a public screening at its African American history museum, which has previously showcased films examining systemic racism.

«White Guilt,» directed and co-produced by Eli Steele, is based on a book by his father, noted Black conservative academic Shelby Steele. The younger Steele, who is Black, Jewish and deaf, has drawn on his own experiences to challenge prevailing views on race and identity.

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The documentary argues that White guilt over America’s racial history, along with fears of being labeled racist, has pushed institutions to prioritize racial identity over individual merit.

The dispute comes as the Smithsonian faces mounting pressure from President Donald Trump and his administration over allegations of ideological bias in its portrayal of American history. The White House has accused the institution of promoting progressive narratives and threatened to restrict federal support, escalating a broader battle over whose perspectives are represented in the nation’s museums.

SMITHSONIAN AMERICA 250 EXHIBIT FEATURES 3X MORE LIBERAL ITEMS THAN CONSERVATIVE ONES

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Steele provided communications to Digital showing that the museum declined his proposed screening dates and offered him a private rental option instead. The filmmaker says the museum has yet to respond to his request for alternative dates for a public screening.

«The film is professionally shot, the quality is there. A comparable film that they’ve shown is ’13th,’ which itself is a very controversial film,» Steele told Digital. «So that’s the big question we have here: Do we have viewpoint diversity or do we not? Do you have to be the right kind of Black to be shown at the Smithsonian?»

«That’s the big question that we have to address in this room. But I hope that it’s not about any of that,» he continued.

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The filmmaker has questioned the apparent decision to not screen his film, given that the museum has allowed numerous other films with more progressive messages to have public screenings, though stopped short of accusing the museum of ideological discrimination.

«13th,» the film mentioned by Steele, is featured in educational and public programming at the NMAAHC. It argues that the 13th Amendment’s exception permitting forced labor as punishment for a crime enabled racial control to persist after slavery by allegedly criminalizing Black behavior.

Other films shown by the NMAAHC in public screenings include such titles as «Hidden Figures» in 2016, «I Am Not Your Negro» in 2017 and «Faith in Blackness: An Exploration of AfroLatine Spirituality» in 2023, the latter presented in partnership with the Smithsonian Folklife Festival.

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LIBERAL FACULTY STILL HUGELY OUTNUMBER CONSERVATIVES IN HIGHER EDUCATION: REPORT

While Steele was hesitant to speculate as to why his film hadn’t been scheduled for a public screening, other Black conservatives saw the museum’s handling of his request as part of a familiar pattern.

«Academia is not what it was years ago when I went to graduate school, when it touted itself as a marketplace for ideas,» Carol Swain, a retired Black conservative professor and prominent media commentator, told Digital. «There would always be a token conservative included. And I have found over the years that conservatives were tolerated less and less. And if they were black, at some point they were not tolerated at all.»

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«When you look at an institution like the Smithsonian, that’s supposed to belong to all of us, to all Americans, you would think that it would be open to divergent views,» Swain, who spent her career at institutions such as Princeton and Vanderbilt, continued. «That is not what we find.»

Wall Street Journal columnist and Manhattan Institute senior fellow Jason Riley shared a similar perspective.

FORMER DEMOCRATIC STAFFERS, DEI LEADERS SHAPE SMITHSONIAN LEADERSHIP AMID POLITICAL FIRESTORM

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«I think the type of people who run the Smithsonian Institute are part of the broader liberal intelligentsia in this country that prevails in academia, prevails and the media. And this is not a point of view. That they take kindness to,» Riley told Digital. «In fact, this film takes some rather direct shots at that group of people. So there might be some self-interest here. It might cut a little too close to these folks.»

«I do think that they have a vested interest in putting forward a narrative out there to advance a political agenda. And I think that’s what’s really going on here at places like the Smithsonian,» Riley continued, citing his experience as a Black commentator who has spent his career sparring with White liberals.

TRUMP V. SMITHSONIAN: A TIMELINE OF HOW THE WHITE HOUSE FIGHT OVER ‘WOKE’ HISTORY UNFOLDED

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Both Riley and Swain argued that viewing the film could do a service to White progressives by challenging their assumptions about race and forcing them to confront whether their preferred policies are actually helping Black America. Riley stated that the Black Americans who regularly attend the NMAAHC could benefit from Steele’s film as it challenges the popular assumption that they are blocked from social mobility by virtue of their race.

In recent months, the Smithsonian has been the target of criticism from Republican elected officials, including the president, who argue that the institution has allowed political bias to overshadow the neutral presentation of history, an argument some within the organization reject, claiming that they are simply presenting the good and the bad aspects of the American story. As part of its effort to pressure the Smithsonian over what it describes as ideological bias, the Trump administration has threatened to restrict federal support, including discretionary grants and cooperation from federal agencies.

While Riley and Swain raised questions about the Smithsonian’s motives, the museum told Steele that his proposed dates were unavailable but did not explain whether it would consider alternative dates for a public screening, according to correspondence reviewed by Digital.

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Steele and his team reached out to the Smithsonian in late August about a public screening of their film, receiving a response within the day directing them to fill out an event application form, according to correspondence reviewed by Digital. In early September, they submitted a completed application form and provided two possible dates for a screening.

About two weeks later, the NMAAHC responded by informing them that neither date was available for a public screening, according to the correspondence. After Steele’s team asked about alternatives, the museum offered them the option of renting space for a private screening at a quoted cost of $35,000, according to correspondence reviewed by Digital, rather than arranging a museum-sponsored public screening.

INSIDE THE BEHEMOTH SMITHSONIAN MUSEUM NETWORK DRAWING FIRE FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

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When Steele and his team clarified that they wanted a public screening and signaled flexibility on their requested dates, they received no response from the museum, per correspondence reviewed by Digital.

«Answering email does not take that much time,» Steele told Digital.

«I watched the film last night. It’s a well-made and powerful representation of ideas that Shelby Steele has been developing over the last 40 years,» Glenn Loury, an African American professor at Brown University who has described himself as «conservative-leaning,» told Digital. «Those ideas — about how racial identity interacts with the pursuit of ‘black power’ and the quest for ‘white innocence’ in the West — are vividly illuminated through the film’s exploration of a number of exemplary cases.»

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«The arguments advanced via Steele’s eloquent narration in the film are not beyond questioning, but they are invariably provocative and insightful,» he continued. «It would certainly be an appropriate use of the platform of the Smithsonian’s National Museum of African American History and Culture to screen this documentary, as a means of provoking critical engagement with its themes from all corners of the political/ideological spectrum.»

IN PICTURES: HISTORIC SMITHSONIAN MUSEUM PACKED WITH WOKE POLITICAL MESSAGING ON RACE AND GENDER

NMAAHC did not respond to a request for comment when reached by Digital.

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«My father, Shelby Steele, was born into segregation and has spent decades examining how America has changed, how far we have come, and what still divides us. ‘White Guilt,’ drawing on his 2006 book, brings that work to the screen,» Steele said in a statement provided to Digital. «We approached the Smithsonian’s African American museum because we believe that conversation belongs there. Sharing his life’s work in a museum dedicated to the history he lived would mean a great deal to both of us.»

«Our proposal remains open, and we would appreciate an answer.»

smithsonian, politics, arts, cancel culture, entertainment, history

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INTERNACIONAL

Hungary and Poland defend tough migration policies as France reels from violent unrest

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NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

As images of burning cars and historic buildings in France and Italy ricochet across Europe, leaders in Hungary and Poland are seizing the moment, not to address the unrest, but to redefine the migration debate.

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Both Hungary and Poland have laid down markers on allowing migrants into their nations. Even to the point of being fined and sanctioned by the European Union courts for refusing to open their gates to unchecked immigration, in Hungary’s case under former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, while Poland faced sanctions in 2025.

Eurostat’s latest available figures show that in 2025 France had almost 10 million and Italy about 7 million foreign-born residents. Poland had roughly 1 million foreign-born residents, while Hungary had less than 700,000, with most born in other EU countries and in Poland’s case about half came from Ukraine.

TRUMP, WALTZ LINK FRANCE RIOTS TO MASS IMMIGRATION AS THOUSANDS ARE ARRESTED

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Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk (L) and Hungary’s Prime Minister Peter Magyar shake hands ahead of a round table as part of a European Union summit at the EU headquarters in Brussels on October 16, 2026. EU leaders headed to Brussels on October 15, 2026, for their biggest clash yet over the bloc’s next long-term budget, as they race to lock in a deal before next year’s French presidential election. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP via Getty Images) (Ludovic Marin / AFP via Getty Images)

Reacting to the violence, Hungary’s Prime Minister Péter Magyar posted on X that, «Europe can count on Hungary.» He stated that, «In the face of this senseless destruction and unjustified violence, perhaps it is now clear to everyone why Hungary advocates the strictest possible approach to migration, and why we will not weaken our border protection or immigration policy under any pressure.»

It is a sentiment echoed by Magyar’s Polish counterpart, Donald Tusk posted: «Poland will not repeat the mistakes of other European countries, nor will it pay for them,» he wrote on Sunday night. «We are firmly defending the border against illegal migration, we have our own asylum policy (we do not accept applications), we deport those who break Polish law. On security issues, we will be relentless.» 

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French School Protestor holding Palestinian flag

A demonstrator holds a Palestinian flag beside a burning bus stop at Place de la République in Paris. The entry of the Gilets Jaunes connects student issues to wider economic discontent. Paris, France Oct. 17, 2026 (Guy Smallman/Getty Images)

Sweden-based political scientist Daniel Schatz told Fox News Digital, «Burning buildings and looted shops in France and other countries are becoming political ammunition across Europe… Leaders pushing tougher immigration policies have a blunt message for voters at home: ‘This is what we intend to prevent.’ Images of chaos can carry more political weight than a hundred policy speeches.»

According to the latest available crime statistics from Eurostat, the European Union’s official statistical office, in 2024 France reported 304,900 police-recorded offenses, among the highest totals in the EU. Italy reported 142,600, while Poland with 57,300 and Hungary’s 28,600 were among the lowest totals in Europe. This as Eurostat’s 2023 «perception metric,» or what percentage of people report crime or vandalism in their areas, showed France was again among the highest with about 20%, Italy reported 14-17%, Poland 7-8%, and Hungary at 6-7%.

FRENCH SCHOOL RIOTS DEEPEN AS EXPERTS POINT TO FAR-LEFT ALLIANCE FUELING ‘BROADER CONFRONTATION’

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Warsaw shoppers, 2026

Shoppers outside the Zote Tarasy shopping center during high temperatures in Warsaw, Poland, on Tuesday, June 30, 2026.  (Damian Lemanski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

«In Central and Eastern European countries, the riots in France are linked to immigration and to the issue of non-adaptation and non-integration of immigrants,» Boštjan Udovič, Chair of International Relations at the University of Ljubljana’s Faculty of Social Sciences in Slovenia, told Fox News Digital.

«Magyar and Tusk are delivering a blunt message to Brussels,» Schatz added, «being pro-European does not mean signing up for liberal immigration policies… Magyar explicitly presents the French disorder as vindication of his migration policy. Tusk’s warning against repeating other countries’ mistakes reinforces a similar political message.»

Gilets Jaunes Join French School Protestors For Weekend Of Action

Protesters climbed at the top of the Statue de la République as student unions and Gilets Jaunes united to demonstrate against education underfunding, austerity, and rising living costs in Paris, France, Oct. 17, 2026. (Guy Smallman/Getty Images)

Magyar said last week’s European Council summit «made it clear that the overwhelming majority of European countries have woken up and want to break with the permissive policies of the past. We hope it is not too late.

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«The Europe we all love is in serious trouble today,» the Hungarian leader said. «It is our responsibility, too, to help preserve our continent as the most wonderful place in the world for our children and grandchildren… I express my full solidarity with the French people.»

ITALY’S SCHOOL VEIL BAN EXPOSES EUROPE’S ASSIMILATION FIGHT AS EXPERT WARNS US COULD BE NEXT

Polish independence Day celebrations

People attend Independence March celebrating the 106 anniversary of Poland regaining independence. Warsaw, Poland on 11 November, 2024. Tens of thousands of Poles from Warsaw and across the country arrived to the Polish capital city on the Nations Independence Day. (Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Schatz said Magyar and Tusk «do not need to invoke Polish King Jan Sobieski’s leadership of the allied army that broke the Ottoman siege of Vienna in 1683 — a victory long celebrated as a defense of Christian Europe — to cast themselves as Europe’s protectors. Burning buildings provide a vivid contemporary backdrop for that message.»

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Udovič is not surprised by Magyar and Tusk’s positions, noting that Central and Eastern European countries «usually link their EU membership to their identity, based mostly on a single nation.» This is part of their history, he says, and «it would be unrealistic to expect that countries that fought for their independence based on their national movement would adopt… a concept of a multiethnic society.»

Schatz added, «This is ‘all politics is local’ playing out across borders. The streets are French or Italian; the voters being addressed are Hungarian or Polish.» Udovič noted that Tusk is entering «a sort of pre-election campaign where migration will also be an issue.»

MELONI CONDEMNS ‘GANGS OF THUGS’ AFTER PROTESTS TURNED VIOLENT ACROSS ITALY

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Budapest, Hungary

Shoppers on a pedestrianized street near St. Stephen’s Basilica in Budapest, Hungary, on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2026. Hungary’s central bank delivered its third consecutive interest rate cut after the inflation rate fell to the lowest level in a decade.  (Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Poland’s next parliamentary election is slated for Nov. 2027, and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, a possible Tusk opponent, is echoing his successor’s remarks. «France is burning, and we must be wise before the harm is done,» Morawiecki posted to X Monday morning. He added that his new center-right political coalition, Rozwoj Plus, «has a package of comprehensive solutions that will allow Poland to be not only prosperous, but also the safest country in the world!» 

Meanwhile, «Strict immigration policies enjoy broad support in Hungary,» former government official under the previous Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and current board member of the Hungarian Atlantic Council Á. Félix Debrenti told Fox News Digital. 

He said, «Magyar understands that abandoning Orbán’s tough approach to immigration and border protection could cost him significant political support, particularly at a time when his party is already facing growing pressures.»

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A protester waving a French national flag walks past a fire during clashes prior to the start of a demonstration to protest against the "high cost of living", in Marseille, southern France, on October 17, 2026.

A protester waving a French national flag walks past a fire during clashes prior to the start of a demonstration to protest against the «high cost of living», in Marseille, southern France, on October 17, 2026. (Thibaud Moritz/AFP/Getty Images)

He said, «Taking a strong position on immigration allows Magyar to shift public attention away from the government’s domestic challenges and onto an issue where there is a broad national consensus,» Debrenti continues. «All this comes just days before Oct. 23… when Hungarians commemorate the 1956 Revolution and the fight for freedom against Soviet oppression.»

Touching on the protests, Magyar posted: «Let there be no doubt: peaceful and lawful protest is one thing; vandalism and violence are quite another. The former is a fundamental right; the latter is a serious crime.»

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Quién es Nilton Condori, el polémico senador que fue detenido en Bolivia acusado de terrorismo

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Hasta hace un año, muy pocos en Bolivia habían escuchado el nombre de Nilton Condori Alanoca. El profesor de Biología y Geografía de origen aymara se convirtió en una figura pública al convertirse en senador suplente de la alianza Unidad, el frente político que lideró Samuel Doria Medina, de quién está distanciado actualmente.

Condori, de 38 años, nació en Toja Cachi, una comunidad del altiplano boliviano. Creció en una casa pequeña de adobe y paja, sin ningún servicio básico, bajo los cuidados de su madre porque su padre era profesor rural y viajaba todo el tiempo entre las comunidades aledañas. En una entrevista con el programa Que no te la charlen, Condori relató que durante esos años no tenía energía eléctrica ni agua potable, que no había camino para llegar a su casa y que para bañarse tenía que sumergirse en las aguas frías del lago Titicaca.

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Pese a las carencias, con los años logró estudiar para maestro y ser dirigente campesino de su provincia, lo que progresivamente lo llevaría a involucrarse en la política partidaria y militar en el partido Movimiento Tercer Sistema (MTS) del que fue su vocero. Años más tarde, a raíz de una alianza entre el magisterio y la alianza Unidad, fue candidato a senador suplente de La Paz.

Después de obtener el puesto de suplencia en el Senado en agosto del año pasado, Condori cobró notoriedad con una idea controversial: plantó que los legisladores se rebajen el suelo a más de la mitad porque consideró que “no hacen nada”.

El senador suplente boliviano Nilton Condori viste una bandera wiphala y posa junto a pobladores y un toro que vendió para financiar un viaje por el país.

Para impulsar su propuesta, el senador vendió un toro en 10.500 bolivianos (unos 910 dólares), para viajar con ese dinero a ciudades capitales y poblaciones rurales del país para consultar a los ciudadanos sobre la posibilidad de hacer un referéndum acerca de los salarios de senadores y diputados.

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El planteamiento, que no se materializó pero generó rechazo entre sus colegas, le permitió a Condori capitalizar la controversia y convertir una propuesta fallida en una plataforma de visibilidad política.

Pocos meses después, Condori apareció convocado reuniones masivas en El Alto, la populosa ciudad colindante con La Paz, para impulsar las movilizaciones contra el presidente Rodrigo Paz a quien entonces se le exigía la renuncia.

El senador suplente fue uno los líderes que impulsó las movilizaciones que entre mayo y junio duraron casi 50 días, y en las que tuvieron protagonismo sectores sociales poderosos como la Central Obrera Boliviana (COB), la Federación de Campesinos Túpac Katari y los sindicatos cocaleros de Cochabamba.

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Después de haber firmado alianzas de “no traición” con estas organizaciones para exigir la salida del presidente, Condori terminó desmarcándose de las movilizaciones y ofreciéndose como mediador en medio de acusaciones cruzadas con otros dirigentes sociales.

Una mujer camina por uno de los puntos de bloqueo instalados en protesta contra el gobierno de Rodrigo Paz. Apacheta, Bolivia. 13 de mayo de 2026. REUTERS/ Claudia Morales

Su papel en estas protestas le valió el rechazo de su bancada y fue denunciado ante la Comisión de Ética del Senado, que definió por votación unánime suspenderlo durante ocho meses.

La medida, sin embargo, no lo alejó del ojo público ni de la controversia. Semanas más tarde, Condori apareció en un encuentro entre el expresidente Evo Morales y sus aliados en el que planteó “fusilar” a los corruptos

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“Si no fusilamos a estos ladrones, Bolivia no va a tener futuro, acuérdense de mí. Esta gente que nos gobierna, no piensa en nosotros, para ellos este pueblo es un objeto sin sentimiento”, afirmó el 26 de septiembre ante una multitud en Lauca Ñ, bastión en el que Morales está refugiado desde hace más de dos años para evitar su captura.

En su primer discurso público ante los seguidores de Morales, Condori afirmó: “Este aymara, este boliviano, viene a buscar unidad ¿Para qué? Para acabar, para extirpar a esta élite ociosa que nos han delinquido doscientos años, que nos han robado. Esa es mi furia. A partir de ahora, compañeros (…) construyamos una identidad propia en la política y ya no permitamos que piense por nosotros esta gente que nos roba sueños, que nos saquea nuestros recursos naturales”.

En una entrevista posterior, Condori justificó su propuesta de “fusilar” actores políticos y dijo que, si fuera presidente de Bolivia, lanzaría un referendo para que “el pueblo decida si insertamos la pena capital en nuestro sistema”.

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El senador suplente Nilton Condori abraza al expresidente Evo Morales durante el acto en el habló sobre

Este domingo, el legislador fue aprehendido en El Alto por policías que lo interceptaron y metieron dentro de un vehículo para llevarlo a celdas policiales, poco antes de que el senador asistiera a un encuentro en el que se discutirían medidas contra el Gobierno.

La detención surgió a raíz de una denuncia presentada por el diputado oficialista Manolo Rojas, quien lo acusa por los delitos de terrorismo, instigación pública a delinquir, financiamiento del terrorismo, atentados contra la seguridad de los medios de transporte, atentados contra la seguridad de los servicios públicos y asociación delictuosa, según se lee en la orden judicial difundida por los medios locales.

Estas acusaciones están relacionadas con sus declaraciones en el mitin de septiembre en el que participó con Morales, quien también está incluido en la acción judicial. ”Se atribuye a Nilton Condori la expresión pública relativa a ‘fusilar’ a determinadas personas, así como referencias a la necesidad de ‘extirpar’ a una élite”, señala el informe fiscal.

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En las primeras horas de detención, el legislador se acogió a al silencio. Mientras se prepara la imputación en su contra, el caso ha provocado todo tipo de reacciones y cuestionamientos sobre la legitimidad de su aprehensión.

El senador suplente boliviano Nilton Condori habla ante los medios de comunicación durante una conferencia de prensa.

“El disenso político, la crítica y el pensamiento distinto no pueden ser motivo de persecución ni de represalia”, señaló el vicepresidente Edmand Lara, declarado “opositor” del Gobierno, y pidió que la justicia no sea “instrumentalizada para silenciar voces”.

En tanto, para los dirigentes cívicos de Santa Cruz, exigen que rinda cuentas ante la Justicia por su participación en los bloqueos y sus declaraciones incendiarias. “No es nomás decir cosas, peor aún con la condición que él tiene como senador de la República”, afirmó Agustín Zambrana, vicepresidente cívico y señaló que debe someterse al proceso judicial.

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Aunque aún no se ha determinado la situación jurídica del senador, el caso ya ha abierto un nuevo frente de disputa política en Bolivia.

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