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Iran making billions in oil revenues under Biden admin as expert slams sanctions policy for lack of ‘pressure’
Iran has increased its oil exports during the Biden administration despite severe and heavy sanctions imposed by the U.S. government, according to a new report.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its annual report on Iranian petroleum and petroleum product exports, finding that Iran made between $53 billion to $54 billion in 2022 and 2023 – significant increases over $37 billion made in 2021 and $16 billion made in 2020. The EIA report is mandated by Congress.
The 2020 revenue marked a low point since 2018, when Iran earned $65 billion in nominal revenue, based on calculations derived from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) website.
The report’s main takeaway is that China has provided Iran a significant export partner, allowing it to bypass sanctions and continue to rake in profits from its energy exports.
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The Trump administration maintained a policy of «maximum pressure» against Iran, hitting each of its industries and manufacturing sectors with significant sanctions against companies and individuals alike to drive the country to economic ruin. The BBC in 2019 found that Iran had entered a «deep recession» and that oil exports «plummeted» as a result of Trump’s policies.
The Biden administration meanwhile sought to appease Iran with a series of sanctions waivers that officials argued would incentivize Tehran to sit down and agree to a renewed nuclear deal, which never materialized.
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 23, 2016. (Pool/Supreme Leader Press Office/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
Meanwhile, the Biden administration continued to issue waivers such as those issued for Iraq to purchase energy from Iran – waivers started under the Trump administration but maintained by Biden even as Iran’s allies and proxies in the Middle East started to hit Israel.
«The numbers here don’t lie,» former Trump NSC official Richard Goldberg told Fox News Digital. «I’ve always said the Biden administration has had a strategic communications policy, not a sanctions policy… there’s no active campaign to stop these shipments, to really put the pressure up on both China and other shipment points, and it’s quite obvious from the numbers.
A Reuters report in 2023 found that «appetite for Iranian crude is growing in China,» which stands as the world’s «biggest oil importer.» The oil’s heavily discounted price due to sanctions might serve as the main attraction for Iran’s product, and the EIA report notes that it cannot account for discounts in its data.
Iran’s 2023 export of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) stands as the country’s «highest in more than four years, with more than 80% shipped to China,» Reuters reported, citing consultancies FGE and Vortexa.
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Iranians demonstrate during an anti-Israel protest in Tehran on Sept. 27, 2024. (AFP via Getty Images)
Some critics have argued that the revenue is not a fully accurate measure since the price of oil fluctuates based on a number of factors, and the last few years have seen a surge in pricing that roughly correlates with the Iranian revenues.
When Iran made $16 billion in 2020, oil per barrel was priced at $39.68; when Iran made over $50 billion a year, oil per barrel was priced at $94.43 and $82.95.
Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, acknowledged that fluctuating prices do make it difficult to gauge the true level of exports from Iran, but knowing that the revenues have gone up as the discounts have either remained or increased due to U.S. sanctions would counterbalance any price drop.
An oil tanker along the Bushehr coast, Iran, on June 8, 2022. (Sadra Company/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)
«That’s very difficult to account for because you just don’t know what the Chinese are actually paying because it’s illicit, there’s risk involved in the cargo, therefore Iran has to charge at a discount,» Goldberg said.
«When you go to the export numbers, particularly to China – I mean, to go from 300,000 barrels per day to 1.2 million, that is breathtaking,» Goldberg said. «That is not sanctions evasion. That is an active policy of allowing shipments.»
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The EIA noted that access to trusted data remains scarce, and its reporting relied on the NIOC and other third-party sources, but stressed that the EIA uses only sources and data that it has «reasonably high confidence» in their estimates.
The Abadan oil refinery in southwest Iran, seen from Iraqi side of Shatt al-Arab in Al-Faw south of Basra, Iraq, Sept. 21, 2019. (Reuters/Essam Al-Sudani)
«Because of challenges with data availability and transparency, nearly all the petroleum and petroleum product data presented in this report are estimates rather than actual data,» the report said, later adding, «Data are subject to change as new information becomes available.»
«Although price data are available on a real-time or near-real-time basis, actual pricing data pertaining to sales of Iranian crude oil are opaque, requiring estimation methods and proxy variables to derive estimates of revenues,» the report said.
The report treats destinations in South East Asia (specifically Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam) as misdirections for Chinese imports as a means of sidestepping issues with U.S. sanctions.
On Friday, the State Department along with the Treasury Department issued new sanctions on Iran’s energy sector in response to Iran’s most recent attack on Israel,
The statement read in part, «This action intensifies financial pressure on Iran, limiting the regime’s ability to earn critical energy revenues to undermine stability in the region and attack U.S. partners and allies. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is identifying the petroleum and petrochemical sectors of the Iranian economy.»
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According to Reuters, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a statement about the sanctions that, «The new designations today also include measures against the ‘Ghost Fleet’ that carries Iran’s illicit oil to buyers around the world.»
Vice President Kamala Harris’ spokesperson and the State Department did not respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Ukraine on Tuesday agreed to a preliminary proposal put forward by the Trump administration that called for a 30-day ceasefire contingent on Russia’s acceptance of the terms in a major step toward ending the brutal war.
But even if the Trump administration is able to get Moscow to the negotiating table and end the three-year war under a new treaty, which several security experts say Russian President Vladimir Putin is under no real pressure to do, can the Kremlin chief be trusted?
Russia under Putin has repeatedly violated formal international agreements intended to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, chiefly from its former Soviet overlord.
From left, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi National Security Advisor Mosaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Ukrainian Head of Presidential Office Andriy Yermak hold a meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025. (Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP)
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These agreements include the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal in exchange for assurances over its territorial integrity after its 1991 withdrawal from the Soviet Union, as well as the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership by which Moscow and Kyiv agreed to respect one another’s existing borders. Both deals were first violated in 2014 when Putin seized Crimea and backed Russian separatist forces in the Donbas region.
The 2014-2015 Minsk Agreements, though criticized as «weak,» attempted to end Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine, an agreement that was never fully achieved and was again violated by Putin’s 2022 invasion.
Some world leaders and security officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have cautioned that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to be achieved in the near term and against Putin’s reliability in adhering to any international agreement without serious security commitments from the West.
«The problem here is that the Russians only understand win-lose outcomes, which means that to prevent them from ever attacking Ukraine again, they must see themselves to be the losers in the war just as they did at the end of the Cold War,» Michael Ryan, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy and former acting assistant secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, told Fox News Digital.
Ukrainian soldiers fire a cannon near Bakhmut, an eastern city where fierce battles against Russian forces have been taking place in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, May 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Libkos)
Security officials interviewed by Fox News Digital argued that securing Ukraine’s future is not about «trusting» Putin. It’s about actually putting Russia in a position where any future violations would hinder Moscow more than it could be enticed by unchecked opportunity.
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«Even if a deal is concluded, Russia will continue clandestine operations across the world to expand its footprint in terms of geopolitical influence,» Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer, told Fox News Digital, noting the former KGB operative can be counted on to «continue election interference campaigns, cyber warfare, espionage and destabilization operations across the globe.
«There’s no such thing as peace in Russia’s strategic military thinking. You are in a constant confrontation.»
Ryan argued a Trump-brokered peace deal needs to reflect on the lessons learned from previously failed agreements, like the post-WWI Treaty of Versailles, which arguably led to the rise of Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany.
«How to solve this conundrum? Just as we did after World War II … reconstruction of Ukraine must include economic reconciliation with Russia,» Ryan said. «The Russians saw how we rebuilt the losing side in World War II Germany and Japan. They expected us to do the same for Russia after the Cold War, but we did not.
«We can’t make that same mistake if we want lasting peace for Ukraine and if we want to split Russia from China,» he added, noting other adversaries are watching how the West handles this geopolitical hurdle.
Ukrainian soldiers of the Aidar battalion training at an undetermined location in Donetsk oblast, 4 April 2023. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
There are numerous obstacles when it comes to the Trump administration’s attempt to negotiate with Putin, including arguments over occupied territory, international recognition of occupied lands, international aid and support for Ukraine, international confiscation of frozen Russian assets, Zelenskyy’s standing at home, the return of prisoners of war and the return of abducted Ukrainian children, according to Peter Rough, senior fellow and director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute.
«Putin has officially annexed four Ukrainian oblasts as well as Crimea. But Moscow has yet to conquer any of the four entirely,» Rough told Fox News Digital while traveling to Ukraine. «I can’t imagine that Ukraine will withdraw from the areas they control, having fought tooth and nail to defend those regions.
«I also doubt that the West will offer de jure recognition to the areas Moscow controls,» he added. «So, Putin would have to swallow all of that in a peace deal.»
Each issue alone is a massive undertaking to negotiate, and while Ukraine this week may be outlining concessions it could make to secure a deal coordinated by the U.S., Putin is unlikely to do the same, according to Koffler, who briefed NATO years ahead of the 2022 invasion on Putin’s plans.
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«Putin is unlikely to make any concessions as he believes he is in a strong position,» Koffler told Fox News Digital. «The disparity in combat potential dramatically favors Russia over Ukraine, which is out-manned and outgunned because Putin transitioned the Russian military and economy on a wartime footing seven years prior to the invasion of Ukraine.»
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on the draft of a 2024 federal budget and the planning period of 2025 and 2026, via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Sept. 18, 2023 (Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool)
«Putin believes he has prepared Russia to fight till the last Ukrainian and till the last missile in NATO’s arsenal,» she added, echoing a January warning issued by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who said Russia’s defense industry output over a three-month period equates to what all of NATO produces an entire year.
«Putin is highly unlikely to agree to a ceasefire because he doesn’t want to give a strategic pause to Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO to re-arm,» Koffler said. «He doesn’t trust Washington. He doesn’t trust President Trump any more than we trust Putin.
«He trusts Trump even less than Biden because he could read Biden and predict his behavior. He cannot read Trump because Trump is unpredictable.»
The experts argued there are too many variables that could play out during negotiations that will determine whether Putin can be adequately held accountable or «trusted» regarding future agreements.
Ukrainian soldiers work with «pion» artillery in the northern direction of the Donbass front line as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk, Ukraine, Jan. 7, 2023. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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Ultimately, Koffler said, Putin will not leave eastern Ukraine.
«Ukraine has always been a red line for Putin, in terms of who has geopolitical control of it, Russia or the West. And he will continue to enforce this red line,» she said. «The only way to ensure that Putin doesn’t invade another country is to make NATO strong again, beef up force posture, increase defense spending, secure its command-and-control networks and develop actual deterrence and counter-strategy that addresses every prong of Putin’s strategy.»
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