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Cuáles son los escenarios que se abren en un marco de extrema paridad entre Daniel Noboa y Luisa González

Ecuador convive hoy con dos sensaciones bien diferentes. No solo por la enorme polarización que genera en la sociedad el balotaje de este domingo entre el presidente saliente Daniel Noboa y la candidata izquierdista Luisa González, heredera política de Rafael Correa.
En las calles de Quito y en las conversaciones con políticos y analistas se palpan dos realidades bien contrastantes. Por un lado, el escaso entusiasmo popular ante unas elecciones cruciales y, por el otro, el temor creciente que genera un escenario de extrema paridad que dispare una situación explosiva con un cóctel de violencia narco, denuncias cruzadas de fraude e incertidumbre.
Leé también: Ecuador azotado por el crimen organizado: amenazas a periodistas y la tasa de asesinatos más alta de la región
La paridad que vaticinan las encuestas es total. El electorado está dividido. Correístas vs. anticorreístas. Centroderecha vs. izquierda. En la primera rueda, celebrada el 9 de febrero, Noboa ganó por poco más de 16.000 votos (44,17% a 44%). Ahora distintos sondeos auguran un marco similar. La elección podría definirse por décimas, en un contexto de absoluta confianza en ambos extremos del ovillo político.
“Vamos a tener un resultado que no es del todo seguro por las inconsistencias (que pueden surgir del proceso electoral). Podemos extendernos hasta el miércoles o jueves (para conocer el ganador)”, dijo el subdirector de Participación Ciudadana, Simón Jaramillo, en una charla con políticos y periodistas de la que participó TN.
¿Qué puede pasar en el Ecuador?
Si las encuestas no fallan y la diferencia es mínima, como todo hace prever, el terreno quedará invariablemente embarrado.
Jaramillo dijo que, en promedio, cuando ya se conozca el grueso de los votos, aún estarán sin contabilizar un 20% de las actas debido a las “inconsistencias”. En una situación de extrema paridad, esto generaría una ola de denuncias e impugnaciones que podrían extender el escrutinio no solo por varias horas, sino durante algunos días. Luisa González y Daniel Noboa llegan al balotaje en un virtual empate técnico (Foto: REUTERS/Karen Toro)
En ese escenario, analistas consultados por TN temen que entren en acción el narcotráfico y el crimen organizado, que han corrompido en los últimos años la política ecuatoriana con la financiación de las campañas electorales y hasta con candidatos propios, según el capítulo local de Transparencia Internacional.
Una de las posibilidades, según contó un exasesor del Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), es que se produzca una serie de atentados para generar caos y empujar a la repetición de las elecciones. La anarquía y el miedo son aliados del crimen organizado que ha ganado terreno en vastas zonas del país ante la nula presencia del Estado.
Leé también: Tras ocho años en la oposición, el correísmo busca volver al poder con el apoyo del movimiento indígena
Ese virtual empate en el escrutinio, con una diferencia de décimas a favor de uno u otro candidato, es el peor miedo de los analistas.
El mejor escenario sería una victoria de Noboa o González, por dos o tres puntos. En cualquier caso provocaría denuncias de fraude en el bando perdedor. Lo único que variaría sería la reacción en las calles frente al poder de movilización popular que maneja cada partido. Y allí, la estructura de la correísta Revolución Ciudadana es mucho más contundente que la de la débil Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN) de Noboa.
Así, una victoria apretada del presidente de centroderecha generaría “movilizaciones moderadas” en el correísmo, mientras que el triunfo de la heredera de Correa solo causaría protestas en Quito, dijo a TN el jefe de Proyectos de la rama local de la Fundación Conrad Adenauer, Luis García.
La Revolución Ciudadana es el único partido con una fuerte estructura en todo el país. Esa es la gran ventaja que tiene el correísmo en estas elecciones tan parejas. Del lado de ADN, cuenta con un hecho innegable a su favor: la presencia de su líder en el terreno.
La Revolución Ciudadana tiene a su máximo jefe, Rafael Correa, en el exilio en Bruselas. El oficialismo lo tiene a Noboa en el gobierno. “En política la presencia del líder sigue siendo importante”, resumió Jaramillo.
Daniel Noboa, Ecuador, Luisa González
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Western Hemisphere defense chiefs convene after border drone scare prompts airspace closure

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Top U.S. military leaders are hosting more than 30 nations in Washington as the Trump administration moves to deepen security cooperation across the Western Hemisphere, prioritizing border control, drug trafficking and regional threats from global adversaries.
«To put America First, we must put the Americas First,» War Secretary Pete Hegseth said, according to remarks shared by Joseph Humire, U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of War for Homeland Defense and the Americas.
NORAD AIRCRAFT TO ARRIVE IN GREENLAND FOR ROUTINE EXERCISES
«We must work together to prevent any adversary or criminal actor from exploiting your territory or using your infrastructure to threaten what a great former American president, Teddy Roosevelt, once called ‘permanent peace in this hemisphere.’»
The meeting, convened by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, comes amid a broader national security strategy that places heightened emphasis on threats closer to home: from fentanyl pipelines and transnational criminal networks to Arctic competition and instability in Venezuela.
The conference also coincides with U.S. action against Mexican cartel drones that breached American airspace near El Paso, Texas.
An administration official told Fox News that «Mexican cartel drones breached U.S. airspace. The Department of War took action to disable the drones. The FAA and DOW have determined there is no threat to commercial travel.»
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is hosting a meeting for the Western Hemisphere defense chiefs in Washington. (Alex Brandon/AP)
The Federal Aviation Administration temporarily restricted flights in and out of El Paso International Airport for what it described as «special security reasons.» Federal officials have not released operational details, but the administration official said the action was directly tied to counter-drone measures along the southern border.
The incident underscores the growing use of unmanned systems by cartel networks and the increasing overlap between traditional criminal activity and homeland defense concerns — a theme expected to surface in discussions among defense leaders gathered in Washington.
Top military leaders from Denmark, Britain and France, nations that have territory in the western hemisphere, have also been invited, according to The New York Times.
FAA WARNS ABOUT FLYING IN CENTRAL, SOUTH AMERICA AND EASTERN PACIFIC, CITING POSSIBLE ‘MILITARY ACTIVITIES’
Gen. Francis Donovan, the new chief of Southern Command, which oversees Latin American and Caribbean operations, is expected to press regional counterparts to intensify cooperation against drug-trafficking organizations and transnational criminal groups that operate across borders and increasingly leverage advanced technology. U.S. officials have warned that cartel networks are using drones, encrypted communications and sophisticated smuggling routes to move narcotics and personnel.

Video shows a kinetic strike on a narco-terror vessel in international waters from Wednesday, Dec. 31. The strikes come amid broader military pressure in the region following high-profile security actions. (U.S. Southern Command via X)
Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, the head of U.S. Northern Command, which leads homeland and north of the U.S. defense including Greenland, is reportedly expected to talk about border controls and integration of advanced sensors across air, land, sea and space domains.
Arctic security also us likely to feature prominently in discussions. The administration has pointed to increased Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic as a long-term strategic concern and has emphasized the importance of Greenland’s geographic position for missile warning, maritime access and critical mineral resources.

Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who was captured by U.S. forces in January in a high-stakes operation and is now facing federal drug-trafficking charges in the United States. The capture has reshaped U.S. security discussions in the Western Hemisphere. (Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters)
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The summit comes on the heels of the dramatic U.S. military capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early January after months of counternarcotics boat strikes.
As the hemisphere’s security landscape continues shifting, defense officials and regional allies alike will be watching to see how other governments with hostile policies toward the U.S. respond to Washington’s increasingly assertive posture.
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Russia agrees to abide by expired New START nuclear arms limits — as long as US does the same

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Russia has reportedly agreed to abide by the limits of a nuclear arms pact it reached with the U.S. years ago after the agreement expired last week — as long as Washington does the same.
The New START Treaty’s expiration, which occurred on Feb. 5, leaves the nations with the two largest atomic arsenals with no restrictions for the first time in more than a half-century, The Associated Press reported. The expiration has fueled fears of a possible unconstrained nuclear arms race.
In September, President Vladimir Putin said Russia would abide by the nuclear arms deal for another year after its expiration date as long as the U.S. followed suit, the AP reported. However, President Donald Trump has said he wanted China to be part of a new pact, something that Beijing has rejected, according to the AP.
«Rather than extend ‘NEW START’ (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future,» Trump wrote on Truth Social upon the treaty’s expiration.
WORLD ENTERS UNCHARTED ERA AS US-RUSSIA NUCLEAR TREATY EXPIRES, OPENING DOOR TO FASTEST ARMS RACE IN DECADES
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Anchorage, Alaska. (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)
In response to Fox News Digital’s request for comment on the now-expired treaty, the White House pointed to the president’s Truth Social post.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke to lawmakers about the treaty, saying Moscow would «act in a responsible and balanced way on the basis of analysis of the U.S. military policies,» the AP reported.
Lavrov added that «we have reason to believe that the United States is in no hurry to abandon these limits and that they will be observed for the foreseeable future.»

A rocket is launched as part of a ground-based intercontinental ballistic missile test at the Plesetsk facility in Russia on Dec. 9, 2020. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)
«We will closely monitor how things are actually unfolding,» Lavrov said. «If our American colleagues’ intention to maintain some kind of cooperation on this is confirmed, we will work actively on a new agreement and consider the issues that have remained outside strategic stability agreements.»
TRUMP CALLS FOR NUCLEAR EXPERTS TO WORK ON ‘NEW, IMPROVED, AND MODERNIZED TREATY’
The New START Treaty was signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, and was entered into force on Feb. 5, 2011.
The treaty gave the U.S. and Russia until Feb. 5, 2018, to meet the central limits on strategic offensive arms. The treaty caps each side at 700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs and nuclear-capable heavy bombers; 1,550 deployed warheads; and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers. The parties were then obligated to maintain the limits as long as the treaty remained in force, which it did until last week.

President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during a press conference following their meeting on Ukraine, in Anchorage, Alaska,, Aug. 15, 2025. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
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The expiration of the treaty comes just after a meeting involving U.S. and Russian officials in Abu Dhabi. Axios previously reported that the two nations were closing in on a deal to observe the treaty for at least six months after its expiration. The outlet added that during the six-month period there would be negotiations for a new deal.
The State Department did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
world,russia,nuclear proliferation,donald trump,vladimir putin
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