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The results are in: 2025’s biggest winner and losers from the off-year elections

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The 2025 off-year election cycle has come to a close, with Democrats emerging victorious in a handful of high-profile elections.

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The election season was much more muted compared to 2024’s wild federal election that delivered President Donald Trump a victory over then-Vice President Kamala Harris, with 2025 spotlighting the mayoral election in New York City, and a pair of gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. 

Fox News Digital compiled Election Day 2025’s biggest winners and losers following months of campaigning on top voter concerns, namely affordability and the economy. 

WHAT THE RESULTS OF THE 2025 ELECTIONS MAY MEAN FOR DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS

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Former President Barack Obama during a campaign event for Representative Mikie Sherrill, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for New Jersey, not pictured, in Newark, New Jersey, US, on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025. (Adam Gray/Getty Images)

WINNERS 

Democrat bench

Following 2024’s federal election that left the Democratic Party working to find its footing after Harris’ loss, Democrats now have New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger ascending as the top leaders of their respective states, broadening the party’s pool of leaders with new roles. 

New Jersey Democrats were on the edge of their seats in the deep blue state after Trump made inroads with voters during the 2024 election, teeing up what Republicans saw as the opening to potentially flipping the state. Democrats, however, held their ground in the historically blue state with New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill defeating Trump-backed Republican Jack Ciattarelli. 

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«This was a tough fight and this is a tough state,» Sherrill said in her victory speech. «But I know you, New Jersey. I have fought for you. I’ve spoken with thousands of you over this last year. I know your struggles, your hopes, and your dreams.» 

Spanberger notched a victory over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears just roughly an hour after polls closed in the Old Dominion State. 

«We sent a message to every corner of the commonwealth,» Spanberger said in her acceptance speech. «A message to our neighbors and our fellow Americans across the country. We sent a message to the whole world that in 2025, Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship. We chose our commonwealth over chaos. You all chose leadership that will focus relentlessly on what matters most: lowering costs, keeping our communities safe and strengthening our economy.»

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THE TRUE COST OF THE 2025 ELECTIONS

Upon her inauguration in January, Spanberger will become the first female governor of Virginia. 

The pair were viewed as potential new leaders of the Democratic Party as they worked to secure their gubernatorial wins. Now, they will head to their respective state Capitols armed with years of Congressional know-how and an opportunity to better cement their leadership within the party. 

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Zohran Mamdani and Al Sharpton raise joined hands on stage at the National Action Network’s House of Justice in Harlem.

Democratic candidate for New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani with Rev. Al Sharpton at the National Action Network’s House of Justice in Harlem, New York, Nov. 1, 2025. (Ryan Murphy/Reuters)

Progressive socialists

Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani, who ran as a Democrat, secured his win as the Big Apple’s next mayor in an election expected to deliver him favorable results as he ran against former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo — who was forced to run as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani in June — and Republican Curtis Sliwa. 

«My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty,» Mamdani said in his victory speech. 

«New York, tonight you have delivered a mandate for change,» he added. «A mandate for a new kind of politics. A mandate for a city we can afford. And a mandate for a government that delivers exactly that.»

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MEET THE CANDIDATES AIMING TO MAKE HISTORY IN THE 2025 ELECTIONS

The election notched a massive win for the left-wing faction of the Democratic Party. Mamdani was a relatively unknown state assembly member and democratic socialist who ascended the political ladder amid his primary campaign. He championed progressive plans for the city, such as freezing stabilized rents, increasing the city’s minimum wage and canceling fares for bus rides. 

The race earned national coverage as conservatives slammed the socialist candidate as a threat to the city’s massive economy and status as America’s de facto symbol of capitalism, and warned he holds antisemitic views in a city with a massive Jewish population. 

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Other socialist candidates also have made big waves this cycle, including in Minneapolis where left-wing candidate Omar Fateh who has been described as the «Mamdani of Minneapolis.» The mayor’s race advanced to ranked choice voting on Tuesday after none of the candidates received at least 50% of the vote.

Minneapolis allows voters to rank up to three candidates in its municipal races. Incumbent Democrat Mayor Jacob Frey and Fateh received the most first-choice results, Fox News reported. 

Trump waves on the White House lawn

President Donald Trump walks from the Oval Office to board Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House en route to Florida, Friday, March 28, 2025, in Washington.  (Mark Schiefelbein/The Associated Press )

Donald Trump

Long before Election Day, President Donald Trump made clear he was no fan of New York City’s Mamdani, teeing up an expected political battle between the pair for the forseeable future. 

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Trump is famous for his long-running political spats with Democrat foes, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Sen. Adam Schiff, frequently spotlighting the opponents as examples as to why Democrat policies fail while championing his MAGA approach. 

Now, Trump has who likely will be another longstanding political foe as he continues his ongoing campaign against socialism and antisemitism. 

«Zohran Mamdani, a 100% Communist Lunatic, has just won the Dem Primary, and is on his way to becoming Mayor,» Trump wrote on Truth Social in June. «We’ve had Radical Lefties before, but this is getting a little ridiculous. He looks TERRIBLE, his voice is grating, he’s not very smart.»

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«Any Jewish person that votes for Zohran Mamdani, a proven and self professed JEW HATER, is a stupid person!!!» the president claimed in a Truth Social post on Tuesday. 

Mamdani is Muslim and has been accused of holding antisemitic views, including for declining to condemn the phrase «globalize the intifada.» The democratic socialist, however, has denied the claims and vowed to «do everything in my power to protect Jewish New Yorkers.»

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ELECTION DAY 2025: CRITICAL ELECTIONS, BALLOT MEASURES AND MORE

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Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears and New Jersey GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli speak at respective campaign events

New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Virginia Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears were the only GOP gubernatorial candidates running in the 2025 off-season election.  (Getty Images)

LOSERS

Republican candidates 

Republican candidates across the board in the handful of high-profile elections failed to rally enough support for their tickets, handing Democrats massive wins from the Virginia attorney general race to the party retaining control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. 

The election cycle focused on the New York City mayoral race, and the pair of gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, where Democrats celebrated victories long before the clock struck midnight on Election Day. 

Republicans, however, failed to rally support in a handful of other state elections, including three Democratic justices on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court defending their jobs from challengers. Republican Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares also failed to retain his seat against Jay Jones, who was mired in controversy after text messages showed him envisioning the murder of a former Republican leader.

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TRUMP’S SHADOW LOOMS LARGE OVER HEATED RACES ONE MONTH BEFORE ELECTION DAY

In California, Newsom and Democrats passed a ballot initiative to redraw the state’s congressional lines, which could flip up to five Republican seats blue in the liberal state. 

Newsom launched the redistricting effort, Proposition 50, earlier in 2025 to counter the Trump administration’s promotion that Republicans in states such as Texas redistrict their own lines.  

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New York skyline

Ahead of Mamdani’s election Tuesday, business owners and conservative political leaders sounded off with concern that the democratic socialist’s policies could cripple the city’s economy.  (Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)

New York City business owners

Ahead of Mamdani’s election Tuesday, business owners and conservative political leaders sounded off with concern that the democratic socialist’s policies could cripple the city’s economy and spark businesses to flee. 

«We will lose businesses in droves,» Republican Councilwoman Vickie Paladino said in July of Mamdani’s candidacy. «You got NASDAQ, you got Wall Street. They could work anywhere. They could work in Jersey, they could work in Connecticut. They don’t need to be in Lower Manhattan.»

Mamdani campaigned on proposals to raise the corporate tax rate, shift more of the tax burden to «richer and whiter neighborhoods» and add a flat 2% income tax on earners making over $1 million to pay for other programs that will fund other «free» services for the residents. 

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Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler added that the city is already strained by inflation, high taxes and regulation, and that the election of a socialist could cripple businesses. 

«New York is the capital of capitalism and small businesses,» Loeffler told Fox Digital in September. 

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«Small businesses are very concerned about what might be coming down the road, particularly as they hear threats of socialist policies, government takeover of industries, rising regulation, rising taxes, a minimum wage that may skyrocket to $30 an hour and cost thousands of jobs,» she said, adding that New York City businesses have already witnessed an «eroding customer base.»

Fox News Digital’s Amanda Macias, Alec Schemmel and Deirdre Heavey contributed to this report. 

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INTERNACIONAL

Cuando San Martín viajó a Italia y lo declararon muerto

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“A comienzos de noviembre viajé a Italia, con la intención de probar si su clima benigno me ayudaba a recuperar la salud, hasta ahora he logrado pocas mejoras”. El que escribe se llama José de San Martín, ha liberado varios países de América y está exiliado, vive en Francia. Es el año 1846 y San Martín le está hablando a Juan Manuel de Rosas, a quien se dirigiría como “Mi apreciado general y amigo”. Su intención de curarse no iba a salir bien.

Esto, y más, aparece en Il viaggio in Italia del generale José de San Martín (El viaje a Italia del general José de San Martín), un libro que escribió Gerardo Severino, un militar italiano ya retirado, que fue “Coronel en Auxilio de la Guardia di Finanza”.

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Efectivamente, San Martín había llegado a la Península el 19 de noviembre de 1845, con 67 años y antiguos dolores reumáticos. Desembarcó en Livorno desde un buque (muy probablemente el vapor “Polifemo”, con bandera napolitana) que había partido algunos días antes desde Marsella.

Como muestra de aprecio, San
Como muestra de aprecio, San Martín le dejó a Rosas su espada ( NA: ROMINA SANTARELLI/Ministerio de Cultura de la Nación)

Esto, naturalmente, después de haber hecho colocar en su pasaporte francés el visado correspondiente otorgado por el caballero Antonino Guazessi, entonces cónsul general del Gran Ducado de Toscana en esa misma ciudad portuaria francesa.

El barco de pasajeros había hecho escala en Génova, como era habitual entonces para la mayoría de las compañías de navegación, cuenta Severino.

Algunos días después, el general argentino tomó asiento en una elegante diligencia de la “Strada Ferrata Leopolda”, llegando así entre los primeros pasajeros a la bellísima Florencia, capital del recién formado Gran Ducado de Toscana, cuyo trono ocupaba Leopoldo II.

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Según cuenta Severino, en la misma ciudad, es muy probable que se haya reunido con el marqués Hippolyte de La Rochefoucauld, entonces embajador de Francia en ese Estado, así como con otras personalidades que entonces vivían en la extraordinaria escena artística italiana.

Y, dice, “en esa misma Florencia, don José habría podido informarse, conociendo bastante bien nuestra lengua, gracias al muy difundido periódico “Gazzetta di Firenze”, sobre las noticias relacionadas con la crisis que afectaba a la Argentina». No lo iban a dejar tranquilo las noticias. Unos meses antes, en agosto, Inglaterra y Francia habían bloqueado el Río de la Plata. Venían tiempos aún más difíciles.

Tras los pasos de José
Tras los pasos de José de San Martín en Italia.

El viaje no terminaba en Florencia. “El destino de la continuación del viaje fue, entonces, la bellísima Nápoles, capital del Reino de las Dos Sicilias, bajo el reinado de Fernando II de Borbón, pero también un lugar de atracción para muchos viajeros extranjeros, fascinados por sus bellezas naturales y artísticas», dice Severino.

Por eso, por su cultura, “el estadista argentino tenía en mente establecerse allí por algún tiempo, si no de modo permanente, como confirman algunos documentos posteriores”.

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Nápoles, hoy. El bullicio habría
Nápoles, hoy. El bullicio habría alejado a San Martín.

San Martín llegó a Nápoles en los primeros días de diciembre de 1845– ¿Planeaba quedarse allí? Severino tiene una pista. Escribe:

Es precisamente por medio de la “Gazzetta Piemontese” que hemos tenido confirmación de un detalle particular, pasado por alto por muchas fuentes biográficas referidas al estadista argentino. En el preámbulo del artículo periodístico antes citado se lee:

‘En una carta con fecha en Nápoles, el general ha expresado el deseo de permanecer por largo tiempo, y quizás terminar sus días en esa ciudad.’»

La portada interna del libro
La portada interna del libro sobre San Martín en Italia

Es desde Nápoles, justamente, que le escribe a Rosas. No quiere contarle sus dolores, aunque lo haga. Lo que quiere es decirle que, debido a ellos, no puede ofrecerle sus servicios ante el bloqueo anglo-francés. San Martín quiere manifestarle a Rosas “mi confianza no dudosa del triunfo de la justicia que nos asiste”. Lo hace desde Nápoles. Se iría días después “no sin antes haber obtenido el visado del cónsul del Estado Pontificio en la ciudad, el caballero Domenico Albertazzi“. dice Severino. El autor arriesga que lo había molestado demasiado el bullicio de esa ciudad del sur de Italia.

San Martín se fue de Nápoles a Roma en diligencia. “Aquel día también partieron hacia la capital pontificia el barón Adolfo Rothschild, Giuseppe Mazzini di Varzo, Antonio Dondi Orologio (de Padua), los hermanos Gaetano y Francesco Calderari, músicos, el pintor Gennaro Ruo, y un tal Giuseppe per San Martino dell’America del Sud domiciliado en Francia, propietario, junto al caballero Giacomo de Prandi de Ulmhart, austríaco y vicecónsul de Noruega residente», dice Severino.

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El viaje duró treinta horas. “Atravesó las localidades de Capua, Gaeta, Formia, Terracina y Velletri, en un recorrido de alrededor de 194 kilómetros”.

Gerardo Severin investigó a San
Gerardo Severin investigó a San Martín.

No lo esperaba lo mejor. Según Severino «José de San Martín no era precisamente un huésped bien visto en Roma, sobre todo tras su conocido apoyo a Juan Manuel de Rosas». Lo que pasaba era que “gran parte de los Estados italianos, en efecto, se habían ‘alineado’ con Francia e Inglaterra, antes que con la Confederación Argentina».

Los diarios hablaban de Rosas como un dictador. Y, mientras tanto, cerca de las tierras de San Martín, Garibaldi llevaba su “Legión Italiana”, compuesta por 200 hombres, a la batalla de San Antonio del Salto, en Uruguay. Combatieron contra los aliados de Rosas.

En Roma, San Martín seguía de cerca los acontecimientos de su patria. Estaba preocupado. Y las cosas se pondrían peor. Escribe Severino:

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Una noche de febrero de 1846 (unos pocos días antes de la partida definitiva del general desde Roma), al regresar al mismo hotel, Gervasio de Posadas, quien había vuelto de Nápoles a la capital italiana, fue sorprendido por el doméstico de San Martín, quien le comunicó literalmente que El Libertador había muerto.

En realidad, fue el propio Gervasio de Posadas quien descubrió que don José estaba aún con vida, víctima de un ataque epiléptico o convulsivo (según se cree), del que, por fortuna, logró recuperarse tras algunos días de reposo».

Severino especula que fueron las noticias que llegaban desde Buenos Aires lo que descompensó al General. Pero San Martín mejoró. Volvió a Francia. A Boulogne Sur Mer. El resto es historia conocida.

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Inside Jay Jones and the Democrats’ late surge to upset wins across Virginia, from the suburbs to the shore

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Virginia took on new life Tuesday as a Democratic stronghold, with Abigail Spanberger, Jay Jones, and Ghazala Hashmi sweeping the statewide races — marking the party’s largest power shift in more than a decade as Republicans lost at least a dozen legislative seats.

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BEACH VIBES

The Virginia Beach and Greater Hampton Roads area appeared to be the biggest boon for hometown son Jones, who represented Norfolk in the state legislature and whose namesake father did for years prior.

Several Tidewater counties that backed Glenn Youngkin in 2021 flipped blue this time, helping boost Jones and the Democratic ticket.

The densely populated independent cities of Virginia Beach, Chesapeake joined typically Democratic Suffolk, Norfolk and Newport News to help propel Jones to victory, according to postmortem maps.

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Virginia Democratic gubernatorial Abigail Spanberger was excoriated online for refusing to withdraw her endorsement of fellow-candidate Jay Jones. (Maxine Wallace/The Washington Post/Getty Images; Getty Images)

James City County – which surrounds Williamsburg – and Surry County, an otherwise right-leaning area across the river from Jamestown – also landed in Jones’ lap on Election Night.

New Kent County — where Jones was previously cited for driving 116 mph — remained in outgoing Attorney General Jason Miyares’ favor.

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But, across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel on the Eastern Shore, rural Northampton County also went for Jones — while its adjacent counterpart Accomack stayed in Miyares’ hands.

The overall trend in that region depicted Jones’ neighbors as a big part of his victory Tuesday.

D.C.’S BLUE FOOTPRINT EXPANDS

Meanwhile, in Democratic-friendly northern Virginia, turnout margins for Republicans appeared anemic compared to 2021, when Youngkin and Miyares won their upsets.

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Ticket-splitting in the Washington exurbs appeared to help Jones as well as the increasing population density fed by federal workers and others creating ever-distant bedroom communities of Washington, D.C.

As Washington, D.C.’s population expands south and west, nearby counties like Stafford and Spotsylvania — as well as Loudoun, Fauquier and Clarke — have trended sharply toward Democrats.

ABIGAIL SPANBERGER SEALS HISTORIC VIRGINIA WIN, ENDING GOP’S GLENN YOUNGKIN ERA

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Spotsylvania County went for Spanberger but eschewed Jones in favor of Miyares. To the north, Stafford County – once more rural but now overtaken by subdivisions and enlarged I-95 interchanges to deal with the population increase – was lost to Democrats up and down the ballot after Youngkin won it in 2021.

In Stafford, Republican Del. Paul Milde lost his seat to Democratic Del-elect. Stacey Carroll, who had successfully weathered a residency dispute during her tough race that was eventually ruled in her favor.

In Loudoun, Prince William and Fauquier counties west of Washington, Democrats unseated otherwise popular incumbent Republicans Geary Higgins and Ian Lovejoy – foreshadowing Spanberger and Jones victories in all.

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VIRGINIA SPECIAL ELECTION IN DEEP-BLUE DC SUBURBS CAN STILL GIVE INSIGHT INTO KEY GOVERNOR’S RACE

The reverberations from the election were also felt across the mountain in West Virginia’s eastern panhandle, where by Wednesday morning, social media was buzzing with commentary and memes similar to how Floridians have been addressing New Yorkers — suggesting Virginians either stay where they are and deal with their newfound leftward bent, or not to bring their politics if they move into Jefferson and Berkeley counties.

The two states originally split in 1863 over political differences as well, after a convention of Virginia delegates upset over Richmond’s plans to secede from the Union met in Wheeling to ultimately agree to the «Restored Government of Virginia» – which became West Virginia.

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Jefferson County, the farthest-east confine of West Virginia; neighboring Loudoun, has become the second-most Democratic county in the all-Republican state besides Monongalia – which houses West Virginia University – as the blue footprint from Washington expands even beyond what was seen Tuesday.

The margin increases Youngkin saw in Loudoun and vicinity in 2021 were muted Tuesday, helping Spanberger, Jones and Hashmi all claim victory.

The same was evident for increasingly populated counties around Richmond, as Chesterfield – Hashmi’s home county – flipped blue and Henrico saw increased margins for hometown favorite Spanberger.

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SOUTHWEST STAYS RED, BUT FEWER TURN OUT

Elsewhere, the more rural, otherwise Republican-friendly New River Valley swung leftward as well on Tuesday – with Montgomery County landing in Democratic hands according to postmortem percentages in multiple outlets.

Del. Chris Obenshain, part of a prominent Virginia Republican political family, was unseated as part of the blue wave — and Spanberger and Jones took the Youngkin-won county that features Virginia Tech and Christiansburg.

In 2021, Youngkin «ran up the score,» as pundits said, in deep-red southwestern Virginia.

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NEW POLL IN KEY SHOWDOWN FOR VIRGINIA GOVERNOR INDICATES SINGLE-DIGIT RACE

This year, Republicans still held their state legislative seats there, and voted for Miyares and Winsome Earle-Sears – but the contests were closer and with smaller numbers.

In far-flung Lee County – longitudinally west of Detroit and closer to Mississippi than Washington, D.C. – 1,000 fewer Republicans turned out for Earle-Sears than Youngkin.

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That trend continued up the mountainous, diagonal border with Kentucky – as Wise, Dickenson, Buchanan, Tazewell, Bland and Giles counties all turned out in much lesser numbers for the regionally-favored GOP candidates.

CROOKED ROAD; BRIGHT SPOT

One small bright spot remained on the map for Republicans as of Wednesday.

The area comprising Virginia’s famous «Crooked Road» – considered the birthplace of country music and bluegrass along today’s U.S. 58 in the Appalachian hills – provided similar figures for Earle-Sears and Miyares as it did for Youngkin and Miyares four years ago.

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Just as NASCAR fans packed Martinsville days earlier, Republicans in the surrounding counties showed up in only slightly smaller numbers than four years ago.

LOOKING AHEAD

A Republican official told Fox News Digital after the results came in Tuesday that Virginia politics can often be a «rubber band» that stretches one way and releases another as time passes.

Ever since the «Byrd Machine’s» 70-year Democrat grip on Virginia politics that subsided in the late 20th Century after the passing of ex-Gov. Harry Byrd, there has been an ebb-and-flow of partisan power in Richmond often contingent on who is in the White House.

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Youngkin’s 2021 victory was seen by political observers as an indictment of the Biden administration, as much as Spanberger’s and Jones’ was to that of President Donald Trump.

FOX NEWS POLL: HOW SPANBERGER WON VIRGINIA GOVERNOR

Prior, Gov. Ralph Northam won in the second year of Trump’s first term, and so forth.

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But Virginia had not seen such a drastic tidal shift until Tuesday.

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Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., is up for reelection in 2026, and already one conservative – state Sen. Bryce Reeves, R-Orange – has announced his run against the entrenched incumbent.

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In her concession speech, Earle-Sears said she’s «not going anywhere» – but it remains to be seen if she, Youngkin or another Republican may make Reeves some company and try to use Warner’s race as the same type of response to any shortcomings of the Spanberger-Jones era.

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INTERNACIONAL

La agónica caída de Italia: deuda, población en baja y la amenaza de China

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Por un pelo Italia ha evitado una recesión formal de su economía, afirma el especialista Federico Fubini en el “Corriere della Sera” de Milán, que publica un artículo coronado por un título inquietante: “¿La Italia en recesión? Menos habitantes, menos industria y más competencia china: ¿Cuándo ha entrado en crisis nuestro modelo de desarrollo?”

Según Fubini, Italia, uno de los diez países con el PIB más grande del mundo, apenas se dio cuenta de lo que sucedía. “Hemos evitado una recesión por 45 millones de euros de un Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) trimestral de 500 mil millones”. En el trimestre anterior también fue necesario “redondear” las cifras para evitar el abismo. Y bastan dos trimestres para que un país entre en recesión oficialmente.

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De hecho, es una minirrecesión, lograda con una estabilización en la caída, y la alarma no ha sonado. Los indicadores claves de “Google” señalan que las previsiones apuntan a un crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto del 0,6% en 2025, que representa “una cifra modesta por debajo del promedio de la eurozona”.

Otro indicador revela que la inflación es moderada: en octubre de este año la tasa anual se situó en 1,2%, por debajo del 1,6% del mes anterior, lo que “indica un control de precios relativo”. Al neto de los bienes energéticos, la inflación ha descendido al 2%.

La primera minista Giorgia Meloni. Foto: Ansa

Otro desafío estructural es la tasa de desempleo, que desde 2023 se mantiene por debajo del 8%.

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La deuda pública, además, es una de las más altas de la eurozona, con un déficit que supera el 140% del PIB.

En este cuadro, el crecimiento es inevitablemente lento y dificulta la capacidad para reducir la carga de la deuda.

No hay que olvidar que los salarios siguen por debajo de su nivel de hace veinte años, lo que favorece una pobreza estructural.

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En su análisis Federico Fubini destaca que los bienes *made in Italy* que son producidos también en China “están rápidamente subiendo” y que se prevé que continuarán así.

El fantasma de China

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Fubini señala que los chinos mantienen un alto nivel de búsqueda tecnológica. Actualmente “presentan niveles de patentes internacionales superior a los de todos los europeos juntos”.

El diario en inglés “South China Morning Post” destacó el descubrimiento de un grupo de investigación de la Universidad de Beijing, que podría llevar a producir microchips para la inteligencia artificial mil veces más potentes que aquellos de la norteamericana Nvidia. Los chinos han tomado la delantera en la investigación científico-tecnológica.

Fubini destaca que el último dato de la producción industrial es de 8,4 puntos porcentuales por delante del nivel de 2021. “El crecimiento de las exportaciones está sustancialmente detenido”.

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El periodista se pregunta si no es el momento de preguntarse “si Italia no ha entrado en una crisis de modelo: gama de productos e innovaciones, de calidad y de organización del trabajo y de relación entre representantes del trabajo, las empresas y la política”.

Datos que producen escalofríos

Hay datos que producen escalofríos. El Producto Interno Bruto en tres años, que van desde el tercer trimestre de 2022 al tercer trimestre de 2025, ha crecido apenas el 1,44%, o sea menos del 0,5% al año.

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La caída de productividad ha sido de tres puntos en tres años, lo que significa que “no se ve el cambio de las reformas, innovaciones y dinamismo, indicadas como objetivos”.

El contraste es inevitable con países beneficiarios con los planes europeos, como España y Grecia, “que están creciendo entre cuatro y seis veces más que nosotros, pese a tener déficit públicos más bajos”.

Menos población

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El país está perdiendo desde 2019 “un promedio de 126 mil habitantes al año, lo que significa una caída de 2.300 millones de facturación al año”, concluye Fubini.

El Instituto ISTAT de estadísticas oficiales en un reciente estudio señala una perspectiva de crecimiento del 0,6% para este año y del 0,8% en 2026.

El aumento del PIB sería “sostenido por entero por la demanda interna, mientras que la demanda neta del exterior daría una contribución negativa en los dos años”.

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En el plano internacional, el ISTAT señala la incertidumbre que prevalece en la economía debido a las dudas ligadas al comercio mundial. En el 2025, que había mostrado en el primer trimestre una dinámica aún vivaz, según la Comisión Europea se ha ido perfilando una pérdida de impulso general con un crecimiento frenado al 0,9%.

Alemania continúa con un tercer año consecutivo de recesión. Recién se calcula que llegará un cuarto año positivo en el 2026, con un 1,1% de crecimiento, mientras que Francia lograría el 1,3%.

Para el año que viene, los cálculos estiman que continuará el progresivo crecimiento del valor del euro, la moneda europea, frente al dólar.

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En Italia hay un progresivo aumento del empeoramiento del sentiment colectivo que deteriora el clima económico. En el año que termina, el PIB registraría un crecimiento del 0,6%, según el Instituto oficial de estadísticas ISTAT, determinado exclusivamente por la demanda interna con un 0,8% y el resultado levemente negativo del -0,2% de la demanda extranjera.

El saldo del balance comercial sería positivo en 2025 en un 2,3% y en 2026 en un 2%.

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