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Here are the key 2026 House and Senate races to watch that could decide control of Congress
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With margins tight in both chambers, control of Congress in 2026 is expected to hinge on a small group of competitive Senate contests and House districts sensitive to national trends. As America plunges into a new year, here are the races that are most likely to define the midterm races.
Senate majority-making or majority-breaking races to watch
Senate Republicans are looking to maintain their razor-thin majority after flipping the upper chamber in 2024. There are 33 seats in-cycle in the forthcoming midterms, which often act as a check on an incumbent president’s performance.
The GOP is hoping to replicate the Election Day successes that helped preserve its majority at the midpoint of President Donald Trump’s first term, entering 2026 with what many analysts consider a favorable map.
Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat from Georgia, listens during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025. (Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
Georgia
Why it matters: Georgia is the top prize of Senate Republicans and their campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., is vulnerable in his first attempt at re-election to the Senate and will be met with the full weight of the NRSC’s campaign war chest.
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What to watch: Before the general election, Republicans will first have to let the dust settle on a bloody, four-way primary fight among Reps. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., Mike Collins, R-Ga., former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley and horse trainer Reagan Box. Republicans’ prized candidate, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, opted not to enter the contest, leaving a wide open playing field for the GOP to fight over.
North Carolina
North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley will compete for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images)
Why it matters: In the heat of the Senate advancing Trump’s «big, beautiful bill,» Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., announced his retirement. What would likely have been a gimme race for the GOP has now turned into a wide open contest for an open seat.
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What to watch: Democrats believe they can flip the seat for the first time since 2008 and hope that former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper will carry them to victory and provide a crucial win to tip the balance of power. Republicans scored their preferred candidate, too, in former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. He will have a primary challenge though from Michele Morrow.
Michigan
Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced his retirement, opening up a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan. (REUTERS/Mike Segar)
Why it matters: Similar to North Carolina, Democrats lost their incumbent Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., to retirement. Both parties are now gunning for the open seat, but Democrats’ have a tangled primary to survive first before their true candidate emerges.
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What to watch: Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and physician Abdul El-Sayed, are all in on the Democratic side, while Trump and Republicans have coalesced behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year.
Maine
Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is looking to secure a sixth term in the Senate. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Why it matters: Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is Senate Democrats’ top target in the midterms. Collins, who is looking to score a sixth term in the Senate, could face a formidable opponent in the general election with the full backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., or an upstart progressive candidate that’s looking to throw a wrench into Democrats’ plans.
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What to watch: There are several local candidates that have jumped in on both sides of the race, but the main contenders are Collins, popular Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and oyster farmer Graham Platner, who has rubbed shoulders with progressive heavyweights Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
Ohio
Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican from Ohio, will face Democrat challenger Sen. Sherrod Brown. (Getty Images)
Why it matters: Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, who was appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance earlier this year, will look to finish out the remaining two years of his predecessor’s term. But he’ll face a tough opponent in former Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who narrowly lost last year.
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What to watch: Schumer and Democrats scored their best chance at picking up a seat in Ohio, again trying to turn the state purple after Brown’s loss to Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio. And there will be eye-popping amounts of money thrown at this contest.
New Hampshire
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., said she will leave Congress at the end of her term. (Getty Images)
Why it matters: Democrats took yet another hit from the retirement train when Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., announced she’d leave Congress at the end of her term. That has opened up the field to several familiar Republican names jumping into the contest in the hopes of turning part of the Granite State red.
What to watch: Republicans have two prime candidates, former Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., and former Rep. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who also served as an ambassador for Trump, to pick from. Meanwhile, Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., is the likely heir apparent on the Democratic side.
House races that will decide the majority
Control of the House is likely to hinge on fewer than two dozen districts nationwide, as both parties focus their resources on a small set of competitive seats that could decide the chamber. The battlegrounds span suburbs, rural communities and diverse metro areas, underscoring how varied the path to a majority has become.
Colorado’s 8th District, Northern Denver suburbs and Greeley
Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Colo., will look to defend his seat in an increasingly competitive district. (Tierney L. Cross/Getty Images)
Why it matters: With GOP Rep. Gabe Evans defending the seat, Colorado’s 8th District remains one of the most competitive House districts in the country. Drawn as a true swing seat after redistricting, it has flipped parties in back-to-back cycles and is often decided by slim margins.
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What to watch: Whether Latino and working-class voters break decisively toward one party and whether the race is decided by a narrow margin. A comfortable win here typically signals momentum heading into other battleground House races.
Iowa’s 1st District, Eastern Iowa
Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks holds Iowa’s 1st District, which is again shaping up as a key battleground. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Why it matters: With a history of close results, Iowa’s 1st District is once again a top battleground as Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks seeks re-election.
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What to watch: The district spans college towns, rural counties and small manufacturing hubs, creating an electorate that frequently splits its ticket. Even as Iowa trends red at the presidential level, the seat continues to hover in toss-up territory and is often among the last House races decided on election night.
New Jersey’s 7th District, North Jersey suburbs
Republican Rep. Thomas Kean is seeking to defend his seat in what is shaping up to be a competitive race. (Getty)
Why it matters: Held by GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., New Jersey’s 7th is a high-income, college-educated suburban district that has repeatedly swung with the national political climate and historically punished incumbents during unfavorable cycles.
What to watch: Whether suburban voters continue drifting away from Republicans or stabilize in a midterm environment. A shift here would offer an early read on how educated suburbs are responding to the party in power.
New York’s 17th District, Hudson Valley and NYC’s northern suburbs
With national groups pouring in money and messaging, Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., is gearing up for a high-profile race. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Why it matters: New York’s 17th District, which previously backed former President Joe Biden, is represented by GOP Rep. Mike Lawler and is expected to play an outsized role in determining House control.
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What to watch: Whether Democrats can effectively harness heavy national spending and messaging in a district expected to draw intense attention.
Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Lehigh Valley and Allentown
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa., will likely address immigration and economic pressures during his campaign. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Why it matters: Held by Republican Rep. Chris Mackenzie, Pennsylvania’s 7th is a true purple district in a must-win swing state. This area is made up of a politically diverse electorate that has previously mirrored statewide results.
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What to watch: Economic pressures and immigration debates are expected to shape how working-class and Latino voters approach the race.
California’s 22nd District, Central Valley
Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., will need to win Latino votes in this upcoming race. (Juan Esparza Loera/The Fresno Bee/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
Why it matters: California’s 22nd, represented by GOP Rep. David Valadao, has remained a perennial battleground for more than a decade, shaped by its agricultural economy and a large Latino electorate sensitive to turnout swings.
What to watch: Whether Democrats can boost turnout enough to flip the seat, and whether Central Valley races help offset Republican gains elsewhere in the country.
2025 2026 elections coverage,senate elections,house of representatives
El presidente Daniel Noboa reformó el Reglamento General de la Ley de Minería mediante el Decreto Ejecutivo No. 273, con el que introdujo cambios en los procedimientos administrativos, técnicos y económicos que rigen la actividad minera en Ecuador.
La norma, suscrita en diciembre de 2025, modifica artículos clave del reglamento vigente desde 2009 y redefine competencias de la Agencia de Regulación y Control Minero (ARCOM), requisitos para concesionarios y reglas relacionadas con exploración, explotación, regalías y cesión de derechos mineros, de acuerdo con el texto oficial del decreto.
Uno de los ejes centrales de la reforma es el fortalecimiento del rol de la ARCOM como entidad encargada no solo del control y la fiscalización, sino también de la regulación, auditoría, vigilancia e incluso administración de contratos en el sector minero.
El decreto amplía de manera expresa sus atribuciones para llevar control estadístico de la producción y comercialización de los recursos minerales, así como para regular aspectos técnicos y operativos de las actividades mineras, lo que supone una mayor centralización de funciones en el organismo de control.
El decreto también introduce cambios en los requisitos para la presentación de posturas y solicitudes vinculadas a concesiones, exploración y explotación. Entre ellos se incorporan exigencias documentales más detalladas, como la obligación de presentar planes de manejo ambiental, información económica, estudios técnicos y certificados de cumplimiento tributario.
En varios casos, el texto establece que estos requisitos deberán cumplirse de manera previa a la autorización de determinadas fases del proyecto minero, lo que podría alargar los plazos administrativos, aunque el decreto no fija tiempos concretos para la tramitación de todos los procedimientos reformados.
En materia de exploración, la reforma delimita con mayor precisión las etapas de exploración inicial y exploración avanzada, estableciendo condiciones para el cómputo de plazos, la ejecución de actividades simultáneas y la obligación de contar con autorizaciones ambientales antes de iniciar determinadas fases.
El decreto señala que el inicio del plazo de exploración avanzada estará condicionado a la emisión de la declaratoria correspondiente y a la obtención de la licencia ambiental, aunque deja abierta la posibilidad de que esta última sea emitida incluso después del inicio formal del período, siempre que se cumplan los requisitos establecidos por la autoridad competente. El texto no aclara cómo se resolverán eventuales superposiciones o retrasos entre ambos actos administrativos.
Otro aspecto relevante es la regulación de la cesión y transferencia de derechos mineros. La reforma incorpora de forma expresa contratos de cesión, transferencia y garantías sobre derechos mineros dentro del ámbito de control de la ARCOM, e incluye operaciones como contratos de crédito minero, de operación y de transacción.
Estos actos deberán cumplir con condiciones específicas y ser registrados ante la autoridad, lo que refuerza el control estatal sobre las operaciones económicas asociadas a las concesiones.
En el plano económico, el decreto introduce ajustes en la forma de cálculo y pago de regalías mineras, especialmente para la mediana y gran minería metálica. Se establece una diferenciación de la base imponible según el tipo de mineral y el régimen aplicable, tomando como referencia el ingreso bruto o el ingreso neto efectivo, con deducciones limitadas para ciertos costos.
El texto detalla fórmulas específicas para oro, plata y otros minerales metálicos, y dispone que las regalías deberán pagarse conforme a calendarios definidos en función del noveno dígito del RUC del concesionario. No obstante, el decreto no evalúa el impacto fiscal de estos cambios ni precisa si implicarán un aumento o reducción efectiva de la carga económica para los operadores.
La reforma también regula de manera más estricta los procesos de renegociación de contratos de explotación minera, estableciendo que durante la etapa de exploración únicamente podrá iniciarse una negociación precontractual, y que los contratos solo podrán suscribirse una vez cumplidos los requisitos técnicos, económicos y ambientales previstos en la ley y el reglamento.
El Ministerio sectorial conserva la facultad de revisar, modificar o condicionar estos procesos para alinearlos con las políticas públicas del sector minero.
Desde el punto de vista institucional, el decreto se apoya en las disposiciones constitucionales que atribuyen al Estado la administración y control de los sectores estratégicos, incluidos los recursos naturales no renovables.
Sin embargo, el texto no desarrolla cómo estas reformas se articularán con los derechos de comunidades, pueblos indígenas o gobiernos locales, ni aborda de manera específica los posibles efectos sociales o ambientales derivados de la aplicación de las nuevas reglas.
En términos generales, la reforma al Reglamento General de la Ley de Minería apunta a un mayor control estatal y a una estandarización más detallada de los procedimientos técnicos y económicos del sector.
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A massive fraud scandal tied to taxpayer-funded daycare, Medicaid and social services programs in Minnesota — involving potentially billions of dollars in suspicious billing — is prompting renewed scrutiny of whether some naturalized Americans obtained U.S. citizenship under false pretenses and whether denaturalization could now be used more aggressively.
The fallout has already led the Department of Health and Human Services to freeze certain childcare payments to Minnesota, citing alleged fraud involving daycare providers throughout the past decade.
Immigration authorities have confirmed they are reviewing whether fraud uncovered in Minnesota could provide the legal basis to revoke U.S. citizenship from naturalized individuals who concealed or misrepresented material facts during the immigration process.
Denaturalization is legally constrained, requires individualized civil court proceedings and historically has been used sparingly.
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Attorney David Schoen said it remains legally viable but under extraordinary circumstances.
He said on Fox News the process would likely trigger «significant» court challenges but «it is legally possible. In an extraordinary circumstance, we’d have to know the facts.»
Quality Learning Center in Minnesota was found at the center of an alleged childcare fraud scandal in the state. (Madelin Fuerste / Fox News Channel)
Schoen emphasized that immigration law already provides clearer mechanisms for removing noncitizens, particularly lawful permanent residents who violate the law, describing denaturalization as a far more extraordinary step requiring fact-specific scrutiny.
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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on «Fox & Friends» that the administration is «not afraid to use denaturalization,» and confirmed that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the State Department are «looking at» whether citizenship could be revoked in connection with those of Somali origin in the Minnesota fraud probe.
DHS confirmed it is actively reviewing immigration and naturalization cases involving migrants from 19 countries of concern, including Somalia, to determine whether any individuals obtained U.S. citizenship through fraud that could warrant denaturalization.
«Under U.S. law, if an individual procures citizenship on a fraudulent basis, that is grounds for denaturalization,» DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement to Fox News.
The review focuses on whether fraud occurred during the immigration or naturalization process, including false statements or marriage fraud used to obtain legal status or citizenship. DHS stressed that denaturalization is governed by strict legal standards and applies only under limited circumstances.
President Donald Trump weighed in on the Minnesota investigations Wednesday, sharply criticizing the state’s handling of fraud and linking the scandal to illegal immigration in a Truth Social post.
«Much of the Minnesota Fraud, up to 90%, is caused by people that came into our Country, illegally, from Somalia,» Trump wrote.
«Lowlifes like this can only be a liability to our Country’s greatness,» he added. «Send them back from where they came, Somalia, perhaps the worst, and most corrupt, country on earth.»
Federal prosecutors say their investigation has expanded to suspicious billing across 14 Medicaid-funded programs, where providers billed about $18 billion since 2018. A preliminary assessment cited by prosecutors suggests «half or more» of that amount could be fraudulent.
The widened probe builds on yearslong scrutiny of Minnesota following some of the largest benefit-fraud cases ever prosecuted in the state, including a pandemic-era food aid scheme involving roughly $250 million in alleged losses. Federal officials say those cases exposed systemic weaknesses in oversight that may extend across multiple aid programs.
Quality Learning Center manager Ibrahim Ali denied any fraud took place, despite a recent report by independent journalist Nick Shirley. (Pool)
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Minnesota is home to one of the largest Somali communities in the country. Census Bureau–based estimates suggest roughly 260,000 people of Somali descent live in the U.S. and close to 100,000 are in Minnesota.
Republican lawmakers argue that fraud on such a scale raises broader questions about whether individuals involved were truthful throughout the immigration process — and whether citizenship should shield offenders who obtained it through deception.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., called for the deportation of all Somali immigrants involved in fraud cases in Minnesota.
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«I have three words regarding Somalis who have committed fraud against American taxpayers: Send them home. If they’re here illegally, deport them immediately; if they’re naturalized citizens, revoke their citizenship and deport them quickly thereafter. If we need to change the law to do that, I will,» he wrote on X.
The renewed focus on denaturalization also aligns with broader efforts inside the Trump administration to tighten the naturalization process itself.
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U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow has previously criticized the current citizenship test as «too soft,» calling for deeper civics knowledge and more rigorous English evaluation throughout the naturalization interview.
Historically, the federal government has pursued only a small number of denaturalization cases each year. Civil liberties groups warn that expanding its use could raise due-process concerns, teeing up a potential legal battle.
minnesota fraud exposed,immigration,somali immigrant community,state department
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