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Con Rusia en la ofensiva, Ucrania tendrá que resistir por sus medios hasta el verano europeo

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La ofensiva militar ucraniana del pasado verano boreal apenas avanzó y Rusia se prepara, según todas las informaciones de las que dispone la inteligencia europea, para lanzar en las próximas semanas o meses, cuando el barro se seque, una nueva ofensiva.

Ucrania pide ayuda desesperadamente para contener un frente de más de 1.000 kilómetros. Necesita cientos de miles, si no millones, de obuses para las piezas de artillería que ha ido recibiendo, necesita munición y armas antiaéreas, necesita drones, necesita de todo.

Pero los arsenales europeos empiezan a vaciarse tras dos años de guerra y la industria militar europea es incapaz de producir tanto como necesita a Ucrania mientras en Washington los republicanos mantienen paralizada la ayuda estadounidense.

La cumbre europea de este jueves y viernes terminó con buenas palabras para Ucrania, pero las buenas palabras serán prácticamente lo único que consiga Kiev hasta al menos junio. Ucrania va a estar los próximos meses sola ante Rusia. Porque todas las promesas hechas coinciden en junio y hasta entonces no hay nada.

¿Qué ayuda llegará a Ucrania en junio?

Chequia ha conseguido, preguntando por medio planeta, reunir 800.000 obuses de artillería de 122 milímetros (calibre ruso) y 155 milímetros (calibre OTAN). Los checos lo comprarán y enviarán a Ucrania. La factura, de casi 1.500 millones de dólares, se paga entre 18 países europeos. Pero no llegarán hasta junio.

Destrozos en Zaporiyia tras un ataque ruso. Foto: AP Destrozos en Zaporiyia tras un ataque ruso. Foto: AP

El mismo mes llegarán los primeros aviones de combate (F16 cedidos por los holandeses, que ya están recibiendo los modernos F35). Los arsenales franceses y británicos de misiles de medio y largo alcance están en mínimos y los siguientes, que debían ser alemanes (los envidiados Taurus) no tienen permiso de Berlín para ir a Ucrania.

Los dirigentes de las instituciones europeas repiten que se ayudará a Ucrania “tanto tiempo como sea necesario”, pero con una industria incapaz de seguir el ritmo de la guerra en Ucrania, los gobiernos no quieren vaciar del todo sus arsenales. El francés Emmanuel Macron lleva semanas intentando, con apoyo apenas de Estonia y Polonia, cambiar el paso a los europeos diciendo que se debe estudiar el envío de tropas si los ucranianos son incapaces de sostener el frente.

No serían tropas de combate en un primer momento sino tropas para labores de retaguardia para permitir que Ucrania pueda llevar más hombres al frente. Alemania, Italia, España, Países Bajos y todo los demás rechazan esa idea. Y el canciller europeo, el hispano-argentino Josep Borrell, intentaba esta semana rebajar la retórica que han usado en las últimas semanas algunos dirigentes nacionales europeos. Que la guerra sea posible no quiere decir que sea ni probable ni mucho menos inminente.

Soldados ucranianos en un búnker en la región de Donetsk. Foto: APSoldados ucranianos en un búnker en la región de Donetsk. Foto: AP

La cumbre de esta semana cierra también la puerta a usar el dinero del Banco Central ruso bloqueado en una cámara de compensación belga, Euroclear, para armar a Ucrania.

Hay más de 300.000 millones de euros y a lo máximo que llegan los europeos es a permitir que los beneficios de ese dinero (un 1% anual aproximadamente) se usen para pagar armas para Ucrania. Y ese dinero, como confirmó la presidenta de la Comisión Europea, Úrsula Von der Leyen, no llegará hasta julio. Ese plan debe ser aprobado por unanimidad y, como siempre en esta guerra, el húngaro Orban se pone del lado de Vladimir Putin y anuncia que lo bloqueará.

¿La tercera guerra mundial?

La cumbre conectó por video el jueves con el presidente ucraniano Volodimir Zelenski. El antiguo actor convertido en líder en tiempos de guerra, dijo que sus hombres se sienten humillados porque deben contar cada obús que disparan cuando saben que en los arsenales europeos hay más de los que se les envían.

A esos hombres se les repite que son sólo la primera línea de una guerra de Rusia contra el resto de Europa, que si Ucrania cae detrás irán otros países. O, como dice la primera ministra estonia Kaja Kallas, “si Rusia gana la guerra empezará la Tercera Guerra Mundial”.

La mayor parte de la munición y las nuevas armas, la mayor parte de la financiación, llegarán a Kiev después de junio. Si es que Kiev, por entonces, sigue bajo control ucraniano.



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Britons cast their votes in heavily-anticipated UK parliamentary election

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British voters were picking a new government Thursday in a parliamentary election widely expected to bring the Labour Party to power against a gloomy backdrop of economic malaise, mounting distrust in institutions and a fraying social fabric.

A jaded electorate is delivering its verdict on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party, which has been in power since 2010. Polls opened at 40,000 stations, including churches, a laundromat and a crematorium.

«Nothing has gone well in the last 14 years,» said London voter James Erskine, who was optimistic for change. «I just see this as the potential for a seismic shift, and that’s what I’m hoping for.»

NIGEL FARAGE’S RETURN TO POLITICS CAUSES WRINKLE IN BRITISH ELECTION: WHY HAS HE PROVEN SO SUCCESSFUL?

While Labour’s steady and significant lead in the polls would appear to buck recent rightward electoral shifts in Europe, including in France and Italy, many of those same populist undercurrents flow in Britain. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has roiled the race with his party’s anti-migrant «take our country back» sentiment and undercut support for the Conservatives, who already faced dismal prospects.

Hundreds of communities were locked in tight contests in which traditional party loyalties come second to more immediate concerns about the economy, crumbling infrastructure and the National Health Service.

In Henley-on-Thames, about 40 miles west of London, voters like Patricia Mulcahy, who is retired, sensed the nation was looking for something different. The community, which normally votes Conservative, may change its stripes this time.

«The younger generation are far more interested in change,’’ Mulcahy said. «So, I think whatever happens in Henley, in the country, there will be a big shift. But whoever gets in, they’ve got a heck of a job ahead of them. It’s not going to be easy.»

Britain has experienced a run of turbulent years — some of it of the Conservatives’ own making and some of it not — that has left many voters pessimistic about their country’s future. The U.K.’s exit from the European Union followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine battered the economy, while lockdown-breaching parties held by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his staff caused widespread anger.

Johnson’s successor, Liz Truss, rocked the economy further with a package of drastic tax cuts and lasted just 49 days in office. Rising poverty and cuts to state services have led to gripes about «Broken Britain.»

Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and wife Victoria arrive at a polling station to cast their vote in London, Thursday, July 4, 2024. Voters in the U.K. are casting their ballots in a national election to choose the 650 lawmakers who will sit in Parliament for the next five years. Outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised his own party on May 22 when he called the election. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

The first part of the day was sunny in much of the country — favorable weather to get people to the polls.

In the first hour polls were open, Sunak made the short journey from his home to vote at Kirby Sigston Village Hall in his Richmond constituency in northern England. He arrived with his wife, Akshata Murty, and walked hand-in-hand into the village hall, which is surrounded by rolling fields.

The center-left Labour Party led by Keir Starmer has had a steady and significant lead in opinion polls for months, but its leaders have warned against taking the election result for granted, worried their supporters will stay home.

«Change. Today, you can vote for it,» he wrote Thursday on the X social media platform.

A couple of hours after posting that message, Starmer walked hand-in-hand with his wife, Victoria, into a polling place in the Kentish Town section of London to cast his vote. He left through a back door out of sight of a crowd of residents and journalists who had gathered.

Labour has not set pulses racing with its pledges to get the sluggish economy growing, invest in infrastructure and make Britain a «clean energy superpower.»

But nothing has really gone wrong in its campaign, either. The party has won the support of large chunks of the business community and endorsements from traditionally conservative newspapers, including the Rupert Murdoch-owned Sun tabloid, which praised Starmer for «dragging his party back to the center ground of British politics.»

The Conservatives have acknowledged that Labour appears headed for victory.

In a message to voters on Wednesday, Sunak said that «if the polls are to be believed, the country could wake up tomorrow to a Labour supermajority ready to wield their unchecked power.» He urged voters to back the Conservatives to limit Labour’s power.

Former Labour candidate Douglas Beattie, author of the book «How Labour Wins (and Why it Loses),» said Starmer’s «quiet stability probably chimes with the mood of the country right now.»

The Conservatives, meanwhile, have been plagued by gaffes. The campaign got off to an inauspicious start when rain drenched Sunak as he made the announcement outside 10 Downing St. Then, Sunak went home early from commemorations in France marking the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion.

Several Conservatives close to Sunak are being investigated over suspicions they used inside information to place bets on the date of the election before it was announced.

Sunak has struggled to shake off the taint of political chaos and mismanagement that’s gathered around the Conservatives.

But for many voters, the lack of trust applies not just to the governing party, but to politicians in general. Farage has leaped into that breach.

The centrist Liberal Democrats and environmentalist Green Party also want to sweep up disaffected voters.

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«I don’t know who’s for me as a working person,» said Michelle Bird, a port worker in Southampton on England’s south coast who was undecided about whether to vote Labour or Conservative. «I don’t know whether it’s the devil you know or the devil you don’t.»


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