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Donald Trump, después del huracán

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Dos enormes acontecimientos dominaron la agenda mundial esta semana, ambos con cuotas imprevisibles y profundamente vinculados. Donald Trump juró su segundo mandato el lunes, pero antes ya había generado una influencia decisiva para dar vida el domingo al cese del fuego en Oriente Medio que abrió el camino a la liberación de los rehenes en manos de la banda terrorista Hamas.

Esa gestión del republicano es aún más importante porque puede anticipar mutaciones cruciales en la actual conformación y aspiraciones del polémico gobierno israelí y en la estructura geopolítica de la región. Son los caminos serios de este gobernante peculiar y estridente que sin embargo llega con profundos claroscuros e infinidad de dudas hacia adelante.

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El paquete de decretos que firmó Trump en la misma jornada inaugural, pareció por momentos responder a una necesidad muscular de sobreactuar las diferencias con su predecesor. La referencia en su discurso al mito del destino manifiesto que justificó en 1845 la anexión de Texas o la guerra de dos años a finales de esa década que permitió a EE.UU. llevarse la mitad de México, expuso un nacionalismo exaltado y un poder imperial cuya ausencia hasta ahora el pueblo habría castigado con esta presidencia.

Del mismo modo operó su reivindicación del presidente William McKinley que a fines de los 1800 incautó Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam y las Filipinas en la guerra contra España.

Esa excursión por una historia irrepetible llegó al extremo innecesario de proponer el cambio de nombre del Golfo de México, denominación que existe desde hace cuatro siglos, mucho antes de la existencia de EE.UU. Un anuncio que, aparte de la carcajada de Hillary Clinton cuando lo escuchó, promovió burlas y chacoteos alrededor del mundo causando un desgaste inexplicable a la imagen recién inaugurada de esta presidencia. Un derrape que se sumó a la ambición reiterada de apropiarse, como si se pudiera, de Groenlandia o convertir a Canadá en el 51 Estado del país.

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Burlas canadienses

Mientras desde México el gobierno jugaba proponiendo llamar “América mexicana” al territorio que comprende EE.UU. y México (“¿no suena bonito?” ironizó la presidente Claudia Sheinbaum repitiendo palabras y gestos de Trump con su Golfo de América), una senadora canadiense, Elizabeth May, futura titular del Parlamento, en un chispeante discurso afirmó: “Dice que queremos ser el Estado 51, pero tal vez California quiera ser la 11 provincia de Canadá, ¿qué te parece Trump? California, Oregon, Washington, hagamos un referéndum.”

Tampoco quedó claro el sentido de la arremetida contra el derecho constitucional de nacionalidad de los nacidos en el país, que es imposible de remover con las mínimas mayorías legislativas del oficialismo y bloqueado como «descaradamente inconstitucional» por un magistrado nombrado por Ronald Reagan.

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La presidenta de México, Claudia Sheinbaum, ironiza con las amenazas de Donald Trump. Foto: EFE

Puede comprenderse que la arquitectura del discurso busque mantener coherencia con la campaña electoral, pero la realidad fija comportamientos cuando se alcanza el poder.

Un buen ejemplo llega desde la gestión del demócrata Barack Obama. Fue el presidente que más inmigrantes expulsó, un modelo que también siguió con números récord Joe Biden. Pero aquel gobierno descubrió que el costo fue la desaparición de albañiles y yeseros entre otra mano de obra básica imprescindible.

Por cierto, el cierre de la frontera anunciado el día del debut también suena a simbólico: los cruces ilegales son hoy los menores desde 2020 en los inicios de la pandemia y 75% menos entre diciembre de 2023 y 2024, según datos de EE.UU. citados por el gobierno mexicano.

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Es posible comprender como parte de los intereses permanentes de EE.UU., la apelación del mandatario a que el país se centre en la producción de petróleo, ingreso que se vincula con la urgencia de ingresos para reducir el déficit fiscal, hoy el tercero más grande de su historia.

Pero la potencia es ya la mayor productora mundial de crudo (13,2 millones de barriles por día) y lo logró sin anular el multimillonario negocio de la economía verde contra la que despotrica el magnate que, además, declaró la emergencia energética para voltear las regulaciones medioambientales y los pactos del clima mientras se incendia Los Ángeles y nieva (¡!) en Florida.

En ese punto hay un tema polémico que puede explicar la estridencia de las otras medidas. Para sostener el gasto que implican las propuestas del nuevo gobierno y reducir el déficit fiscal, se requieren recortes que implican un desafío político. Muchos de esos ajustes que los republicanos están contemplando apuntan a programas destinados a ayudar a los estadounidenses de bajos ingresos, entre ellos los sistemas de salud.

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En el Capitolio hay un intenso debate, además, por la preocupación entre legisladores oficialistas de que un mal paso amplifique los rojos fiscales y regrese la inflación y la trepada de las tasas.

Donald Trump y Vladimir Putin, en  la cumbre del G20 en Japón, en junio de 2019, durante el primer mandato del republicano. Foto: REUTERS  Donald Trump y Vladimir Putin, en la cumbre del G20 en Japón, en junio de 2019, durante el primer mandato del republicano. Foto: REUTERS

En el plano internacional las cosas aparecen más claras aunque no necesariamente sencillas. El anuncio de Trump sobre un volumen adicional de sanciones contra Rusia, el país más penalizado del mundo, si Vladimir Putin no cesa la ofensiva militar contra Ucrania, indica las dificultades que el nuevo presidente descubre en ese frente y cierta impotencia en un objetivo que en la campaña describía como despejado por su mera presencia. Ahora un Trump ofuscado le dice a Putin que libra una “guerra ridícula”, cuando en el llano fue benévolo con el autócrata ruso.

El desafío de Oriente Medio

Oriente Medio puede deparar otro disgusto si los supremacistas que acompañan al premier Benjamín Netanyahu destruyen el plan de paz que se alza como un estorbo en la intención final de tomar los territorios palestinos.

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Ese acuerdo de tres etapas, que incluye la reconstrucción de Gaza, apunta a cesar la guerra y la entrega de todos los rehenes en manos de la desflecada orga terrorista. Pero el ministro de Finanzas Bezalel Smotrich, la figura más potente de los integristas en el gabinete junto a Itamar Ben-Gvir, cuyo partido dejó el gobierno en protesta por el convenio, afirma que se retomará la guerra sin una segunda fase.

No es una voz aislada. El muy respetado escritor y periodista Amir Tibon señaló que el pasado domingo, mientras se celebraba la liberación de las tres primeras rehenes, Amit Segal, un periodista cercano al oficialismo “anunció en la televisión que espera que solo 10 de los 94 rehenes que aún se encuentran en Gaza sean liberados antes de que el premier cumpla su promesa a Smotrich y reanude la guerra”.

El colapso del pacto sucedería si se denuncian violaciones por parte de la banda terrorista o se amplifica el conflicto que ya está latiendo gravemente en Cisjordania, el otro territorio palestino ocupado donde se lleva adelante una imprevisible operación militar en Jenin, acción que reclamó Smotrich como condición para permanecer en el gabinete.

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El saboteo del acuerdo que Tibon ve como inevitable, posiblemente no pase de la intención. El permanente objetivo norteamericano y especialmente de la gestión de Trump porque sencillamente no pudo lograrlo Biden, es avanzar a un acuerdo que inaugure relaciones entre Arabia Saudita e Israel junto al resto de los países árabes, para aislar a Irán, ya muy debilitado por la pérdida de Siria y la debacle de sus brazos insurgentes en Gaza y Líbano.

Una ofensiva colonizadora de los territorios palestinos es ácido en ese proyecto que incluye la solución estatal para ese pueblo, alternativa que ya estaba, aunque bastante desprolija, en el plan que pergeñó Trump en su primer gobierno. Los ulra israelíes pueden parecer pigmeos frente a ese proyecto, pero en cualquier caso es un desafío para la noción que postula el nuevo jefe de la Casa Blanca, que presume de tener el mundo en un puño.

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Pope Francis now eating solid foods, showing ‘slight gradual improvements,’ Vatican says

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Pope Francis continued his therapy and prescribed diet, which now includes eating solid foods, the Vatican said in an update on Sunday.

The Vatican said he did respiratory and motor physiotherapy and his condition «appears stable, with slight gradual improvements.»

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«However, the overall situation remains complex, prompting doctors to maintain a guarded prognosis,» the Vatican also warned in its update.

Earlier on Sunday, the Vatican said the pope was responding well to treatment and had shown a «gradual, mild improvement» in recent days as he remains in the hospital recovering from double pneumonia.

POPE FRANCIS SHOWS ‘SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT’ DURING FOURTH WEEK IN HOSPITAL, VATICAN SAYS

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Pope Francis waves to believers as he leaves the Cercle Cite after a meeting Luxembourg’s Prime Minister during a four-day apostolic journey in Luxembourg and Belgium, in Luxembourg City on September 26, 2024. (Simon Wohlfahrt/AFP/Getty)

The night was quiet; the Pope is resting,» the Vatican said in its earlier statement.

Francis, 88, was admitted to Rome’s Gemelli Hospital on Feb. 14 after a week-long bout of bronchitis worsened. Doctors first diagnosed the complex viral, bacterial and fungal respiratory tract infection and subsequently the onset of pneumonia in both lungs.

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This is the fourth Sunday in a row that the pope will not appear for his weekly noon blessing, but the Vatican plans to distribute the message he would have delivered.

The pope’s condition has remained stable, as he has had no fever and good oxygen levels in his blood for several days, doctors said. The doctors said that his stability «as a consequence testifies to a good response to therapy.»

This marks the first time doctors have reported that Francis, who has chronic lung disease and had part of one lung removed when he was younger, was responding well to the prescribed therapies since he was admitted to the hospital more than three weeks ago.

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Pope Francis in better health

Pope Francis waves from his popemobile after the weekly Angelus prayers, at Saint Peter’s Square in the Vatican on October 20, 2024. (Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty)

Despite Francis’ absence, the Vatican’s daily operations continued alongside celebrations of its Holy Year, the once-every-quarter-century Jubilee that brings pilgrims from around the world to Rome. The Holy Year is celebrating volunteers this weekend, and many are extending their pilgrimage to pray for Francis outside the hospital.

POPE FRANCIS CONTINUES TO REST IN HOSPITAL AS VATICAN’S HOLY YEAR PROCEEDS WITHOUT HIM

Pope Francis

Pope Francis attends a mass at the Esplanade of Tasitolu in Dili, East Timor, on September 10, 2024. (Tiziana Fabi/Pool/AFP/Getty)

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Canadian Cardinal Michael Czerny will preside over the Holy Year Mass on Sunday for the volunteers.

The pope has been using high flows of supplemental oxygen to help him breathe during the day and a noninvasive mechanical ventilation mask at night.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Mark Carney wins Liberal Party nomination to replace Trudeau as Canada’s next PM

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OTTAWA, Canada – Former Central Bank Governor of Canada Mark Carney will become Canada’s next prime minister after winning the Liberal leadership race on Sunday night. Carney told cheering supporters that «Canada will never become part of America in any way, shape or form.»

Carney received 86% of the vote, or 131,764 votes of the 151,899 ones cast from the nearly 400,000 party members who registered to participate in the leadership election.

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The new Liberal leader told members that they should be prepared to fight «the most important election of our lives» where the «stakes have never been higher.»

He said, Canada is the «greatest country in the world and now our neighbors want to take us. No way,» said the incoming Canadian prime minister referring to President Donald Trump’s repeated desire for the U.S. to annex Canada as the «51st state.»

TRUMP CRITIC MARK CARNEY POISED TO REPLACE TRUDEAU AS CANADA’S PRIME MINISTER

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Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks to supporters in Ottawa, Ontario, Sunday, March 9, 2025.. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP)

When Trump announced his tariffs against Canada last month, Carney issued a statement that «Canada will not bow down to a bully. We won’t stand by as illegal U.S. tariffs hurt our workers and their families. As Canadians, we need to face this challenge as one united team.»

In December, outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly approached Mark Carney to serve as Canadian finance minister, which caused the incumbent, Chrystia Freeland, to leave the Cabinet and publicly release her resignation letter in which she wrote that she and the prime minister had «found [themselves] at odds about the best path forward for Canada.»

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FILE - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves as he leaves the offices of Salesforce on Feb. 8, 2018, in San Francisco. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves as he leaves the offices of Salesforce on Feb. 8, 2018, in San Francisco. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press via AP, File) (AP)

Less than a month later, Trudeau announced his intention to step down as Liberal leader and prime minister, in which he conceded that if he’s «having to fight internal battles, [he] cannot be the best option» in a general election scheduled to be held no later than Oct. 20.

But opposition parties have vowed to force an earlier national vote through a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons against the Liberal minority government when Parliament is recalled on March 24.

On Saturday, Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper reported that Carney will likely call a snap election the week before the March 24 resumption of Parliament, with voting day on either April 28 or May 5.

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The new Liberal leader is expected to meet with Trudeau on Monday to discuss the transition that will find Carney and a slimmed-down Cabinet sworn into office by Friday.

WHO IS PIERRE POILIEVRE? CANADA’S CONSERVATIVE LEADER SEEKING TO BECOME NEXT PRIME MINISTER AFTER TRUDEAU EXIT

Canada Conservative leader

Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, during the Canada Strong and Free Networking Conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on Thursday, April 11, 2024. Prime Minister Trudeau has been under fire over the past year due to Canada’s soaring cost of housing, and is trailing badly in the polls to Poilievre, who’s the favorite to win the next election.  (David Kawai/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

But regardless of the Liberals having a new leader with some momentum in the polls, Canada’s Conservatives under their leader Pierre Poilievre are ready for a «change election,» said Laura Kurkimaki, who served as deputy national campaign manager for the Conservative Party during the last federal election in 2021.

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«We’ve had 10 years of a Liberal government and Canadians are tired of that,» said Kurkimaki, who also served as principal secretary to former Conservative official opposition leader Erin O’Toole whose party won the popular vote but not enough House seats to win the 2021 election.

Furthermore, she said the new Liberal leader would be running on «Trudeau’s record,» and while Carney wasn’t a member of the prime minister’s government, he was appointed last September by the Liberal Party to chair a task force on economic growth for Trudeau.

«The next election will be about who is going to make life more affordable for Canadians,» said Kurkimaki. «What’s going on in the U.S. impacts that, of course, and creates economic uncertainty in Canada.»

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President Trump and Mark Carney

President Trump looks toward likely Trudeau successor Mark Carney of Canada.  (Getty Images)

She added that the longer Carney waits to call an election, the Conservatives get more time to launch their attack-ads against him.

During an election, parties face spending limits. But before the writ is dropped to launch the election period, parties can spend as much as they want on advertising, and the Conservatives raised more than double (about $29 million) last year than the Liberals, at about $11 million.

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In an interview with The Spectator, President Trump, commenting on the Conservative party leader, said Poilievre’s «biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy … He’s not a Trump guy at all.»

The Canadian Conservative leader replied on X, stating: «Mr. President, it is true. I am not MAGA.»

«I am for Canada First. Always,» Poilievre posted. «Canada has always been America’s best friend & ally. But we will NEVER be the 51st state.»

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Trump critic Mark Carney poised to replace Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister

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OTTAWA – Mark Carney has never held elected office, but for years has been touted as a future leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, and if the polling goes as expected, he is the favorite to win his party’s leadership race on Sunday.

Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and Goldman Sachs executive, is expected to win the race to succeed Justin Trudeau as both the 14th Liberal leader and 24th Canadian prime minister by the party’s nearly 400,000 members.

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Carney recently criticized President Donald Trump as a «bully» in a statement he released in response to American tariffs being put on the northern neighbor. «Canada will not bow down to a bully. We won’t stand by as illegal U.S. tariffs hurt our workers and their families. As Canadians, we need to face this challenge as one united team.»

Canada’s CBC reported Carney compared Trump to Harry Potter’s Voldemort in reaction to the president’s comments on making Canada the 51st state.

«When you think about what’s at stake in these ridiculous, insulting comments of the president, of what we could be, I view this as the sort of Voldemort of comments… Like I will not even repeat it, but you know what I’m talking about.»

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CANADA PUNCHES BACK AGAINST TRUMP WITH MAJOR TARIFFS OF ITS OWN AS TRADE WAR SET TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY

Mark Carney speaks at the Sustainable Finance conference, Nov. 28, 2024. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

More than half of the Liberals’ 153-member caucus in the House of Commons has endorsed him for leader over former Cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould, as well as past member of Parliament (MP) Frank Baylis – all three of whom served in Trudeau’s government.

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On fundraising, Carney has amassed the most campaign contributions with $1.3 million – or more than double what Freeland, a former foreign affairs minister, collected last month.

Polls have also shown that Carney is the frontrunner to become the next Liberal leader. Should he hold that job and automatically become Canadian prime minister as Trudeau’s successor, he would help boost his party’s fortunes at the ballot box.

A survey by the Angus Reid Institute, released on March 5, found that a Carney-led Liberal Party was only three points (37%) behind the official opposition Conservative Party, at 40%. 

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The results of a Leger poll, released on March 3, reported a slightly wider margin, with the Conservatives at 41% and the Liberals, with Carney as leader, at 33%.

However, the same recent Angus Reid poll also found that 43% of Canadians believe Carney would be best suited, as prime minister, to deal with Trump, compared to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, at 34%.

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a «Spike the Hike – Axe the Tax» rally on March 27, 2024, in Edmonton, Alberta. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Even Poilievre has acknowledged that he will face the frontrunner in the Liberal race in the next general election, regularly calling him «Carbon Tax Carney,» with reference to the Canadian government’s consumer tax on carbon emissions that Carney initially supported. During his leadership run, the former central bank governor said he would replace it with an incentive program that rewards Canadians for «making greener choices,» such as purchasing an energy-efficient appliance.

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In a Jan. 26 open letter to Carney, Poilievre asked him whether he would be «any different than the man you are trying to replace» and commit to «banning any prior Trudeau minister from serving in your Cabinet» or «pursue the same Trudeau agenda?»

TRUMP EXEMPTS MEXICO FROM TARIFFS FOR USMCA GOODS UNTIL APRIL 2 

Norman Spector, who served as chief of staff to former Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, views Carney’s political-rookie status as serving him well as prime minister when dealing with the White House.

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«He doesn’t start out with any baggage with Trump, and I think that’s very, very important,» said Spector. He suggested that Carney meet with the president as soon as possible to address areas where Canada and the U.S. can closely collaborate, such as on continental security.

Mark Carney Launches Campaign For Federal Liberal Leadership

Mark Carney officially announced his bid for the Liberal Party leadership at Laurier Heights Community League in Edmonton, Canada, on Jan. 16, 2025. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Carney cannot appear to be «Justin Trudeau in a different set of clothes or with a different resume,» John Manley, a former Canadian Liberal deputy prime minister and finance minister, told Fox News Digital.

«He’s got to be a candidate for change and be seen as the serious dude who can take on Donald Trump,» while noting that the ballot-box question in Canada has shifted from the unpopularity in Canada of Trudeau to Trump.

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No longer a member of Canada’s Liberal Party, Manley said Carney has «promised to move the party back toward the center and make the economy his focus, and those would both be welcome.»

Last Wednesday, Carney said he would remove domestic trade barriers between the 10 provinces and three territories that would expand the Canadian economy by up to $140 billion.

On the same day, Trudeau and the provincial and territorial premiers agreed to do the very same to reduce reliance on trade with the U.S. in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada.

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Manley said the Liberals «have got to stop focusing on identity politics,» which he said is only «important to a small band of people.»

Trudeau in San Francisco

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves as he leaves the offices of Salesforce on Feb. 8, 2018, in San Francisco. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

«We can’t keep fighting cultural wars. It badly hurt the Democrats in the U.S.»

He also said Carney needs to quickly call a general election before Parliament is scheduled to resume on March 24. 

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Should he become Liberal leader on Sunday, Carney would also automatically become the prime minister-designate since the Liberals lead the government under Trudeau. 

The formal transition date for Carney to assume office has yet to be determined, but he would be the first Canadian prime minister to have never held elected office and would need to win a seat in the House of Commons. Therefore, the need for a national vote is also personal as it would enable Carney to run in a yet-to-be-determined riding (district) to become a member of Parliament.

TRUMP TELLS TRUDEAU FENTANYL CRACKDOWN ‘NOT GOOD ENOUGH’ TO STAVE OFF TARIFFS

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Manley, who ran for the Canadian Liberal leadership in 2003, won by former prime minister Paul Martin, said Carney will need new faces in his Cabinet.

He also sees Carney – a Harvard and Oxford universities graduate with a doctorate in economics – as holding an advantage over Poilievre in the next election.

Born in Canada’s Northwest Territories, 59-year-old Carney was also a longtime Goldman Sachs executive, who additionally served as the United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance.

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Canadian flag

Canada’s Liberals vote on a new leader on Sunday. (iStock)

By contrast, 45-year-old Poilievre has «done nothing but politics for his adult life,» said Manley.

The opposition leader was first elected as a Conservative MP for an Ottawa riding in 2004 when he was 24.

But Manley said, «Poilievre is a very effective communicator,» and Carney has to «prove that he can relate to the ordinary man on the street.»

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«Can he appeal to people who elect governments, many of whom don’t particularly read books – and may not even read newspapers?»

«Being a successful politician today requires a different skill set than it was even in my time,» he said.

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