Una crítica frecuente contra Estados Unidos en el trámite de la guerra que conmueve hoy a Oriente Medio y al mundo es la ausencia de estrategia, preparación y adecuada caracterización del adversario. Esas carencias marcan también la apresurada intención de la potencia de liberarse del conflicto. El presidente Donald Trump ha despachado a Teherán un plan de negociación a través de Pakistán. Esa iniciativa cuenta con 15 puntos inaceptables para la teocracia, pero es presumible que fueron elaborados menos para el adversario que para darle sentido político y narrativa a la eventual retirada. El presidente insiste que la guerra ha concluido con la victoria norteamericana. Necesita ese discurso. Pero no es lo que está sucediendo.

Como acaba de señalar The Wall Street Journal “el régimen está maltrecho pero intacto, aún controla el estrecho de Ormuz y podría acceder a su material nuclear enterrado profundamente bajo los escombros”. Es claro que Trump lo sabe. También lo sabía cuando emitió su ultimátum el fin de semana pasado, que ha postergado ya dos veces, para que Teherán libere el tránsito del petróleo sin restricciones por ese paso estratégico, y por eso posiblemente luego convirtió en “conversaciones productivas” lo que son solo contactos sin profundidad por el momento.

Irán ha logrado mantenerse de pie y supone que cuenta con capacidad para imponer condiciones. El propio EE.UU. ha fundado esa visión al ordenar la liberación de la venta del petróleo del régimen, lo que implica un alivio para sus cuentas. Es la señal de que su estrategia de cerrar las canillas del crudo se ha convertido en el arma que define este grave episodio.

La participación relevante de Pakistán en estas negociaciones interesa porque se trata de un aliado histórico de China, ambos de los pocos países cuyos buques cruzan por Ormuz. Indicaría cierta mano de Beijing en las trastiendas de estos acercamientos por la necesidad de la potencia asiática para desescalar una crisis que amenaza encoger la economía mundial a niveles similares o peores que la pandemia. No es un dato menor en este sentido que Trump haya confirmado que viaja a Beijing en mayo.

La mano de China importa, además, porque posiblemente impida que Irán exagere sus ventajas estratégicas y cometa el peor de los fallidos. “Ninguna de las dos partes puede aspirar a humillar al contrario en esta guerra. Si lo hacen, se estarían metiendo en un agujero aun mayor”, evalúa Trita Parsi, del think tank Quinci Intitute for Responsible Statecraft, citada en El País de Madrid.

La cancelación del conflicto debe cuajar el complejo teorema según el cual ambas partes se consideren victoriosas. Un objetivo que aparece aún más difícil si se advierte que cualquier negociación se limitará a la apertura del estrecho y el levantamiento de sanciones. No habría espacio para nada más. Salvo alguna forma para que ese poder de Irán sobre el tránsito de los petroleros pueda ser limitado, como ha planteado Arabia Saudita en la cumbre sobre la guerra de los cancilleres de Egipto, Turquía y Pakistán en Riad el último jueves.

La guerra y su imprevisto desarrollo erosionó las capacidades coercitivas de Occidente. Una señal de ese defecto es la intensa búsqueda de EE.UU. de un arreglo. De ahí que el plan de 15 puntos que demanda el congelamiento del programa nuclear iraní, el desarme del arsenal misilístico y el control compartido de Ormuz, entre otras medidas, constituya solo una herramienta propagandística. También lo es el reclamo de la teocracia de resarcimientos o por el cierre de las bases norteamericanas en la región. No es eso lo que se discutiría.

Lo cierto es que después de dos guerras, la de 12 días el año pasado y la actual mucho más grave, ambas lanzadas en medio de negociaciones, cualquier diálogo estará contaminado de una inevitable desconfianza. No solo debido a estos antecedentes. La primera pausa de los ataques anunciada por Trump cuando promocionó las conversaciones, coincide con la llegada de una enorme fuerza de desembarco. Dos grupos anfibios de infantería de marina, el Trípoli de Okinawa y el Boxer de San Diego, convergen estos días en el Golfo Pérsico con aproximadamente 4.500 infantes de marina.

A tono con ese movimiento, The New York Times reveló preparativos para “el despliegue de tropas aerotransportadas”. Consistiría en una brigada de combate de la “Fuerza de Respuesta Inmediata” de la 82.ª División con 3.000 soldados para tomar la isla de Kharg, el principal centro de exportación de petróleo iraní y otro puñado de islas e islotes. Esa arriesgada misión buscaría convertir esa estructura en un activo equivalente al valor estratégico de Ormuz. Irán ha dicho que si eso sucede también clausurará el otro paso estratégico de Bab al Mandeb que enlaza el mar Rojo con el Golfo de Aden.

Las conversaciones, que no es claro si se harán y cuándo, suman otras sombras de desconfianza. Trump designó para la tarea a los empresarios inmobiliarios Jared Kushner, su yerno, y a Steven Witkoff, los mismos que dirigieron la anterior discusión mediada por Omán que interrumpió el bombardeo. Es una señal complicada que se suma a la curiosidad del descarte de diplomáticos de carrera.

Estos trasfondos opacos los usa Israel para desdeñar el planteo negociador de Trump. Como ya ha señalado esta columna, el premier Benjamín Netanyahu apunta a una guerra larga con objetivos más claros que Washington. Ya ha anunciado la toma del 10% del territorio libanés con el argumento de la seguridad nacional que utilizó ya antes para ocupar una porción adicional de Siria. Un conflicto agravado quitaría, de paso, sustento al plan de paz para Gaza elaborado por Trump con las potencias árabes que incluye una solución estatal palestina y la prohibición de la expulsión de los gazatíes de su territorio o la colonización total de Cisjordania ocupada.

En cierta medida Israel ya ha votado en contra de cualquier negociación cuando eliminó al influyente dirigente Ali Larijani, un pragmático aceptable para Occidente. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, presidente del Parlamento y ex comandante de la Guardia Revolucionaria, aparece como el relevo de aquella figura y es quien se afirma, buscaría EE.UU. para un acuerdo. Suponemos que debe estar muy protegido. Pero Israel tiene un problema objetivo, sin EE.UU. ni aliados europeos, no puede continuar la guerra contra Irán. Deberá limitarse a Líbano.

La alternativa de un desembarco se correspondería claramente con los intereses de Israel y de algunos antiguos enemigos de Irán en la región, pero implicaría la muerte política de Trump. El desarrollo del conflicto pone en duda que la teocracia cedería si pierde el control de Kharg o las otras islas. Al mismo tiempo generales como Mark Milley y otros mandos que sirvieron en el primer gobierno de Trump advirtieron que una invasión terrestre sería “una trampa de proporciones históricas”. Aparte de la disparada previsible del precio del petróleo.

El escenario configura un inesperado alimento para la oposición demócrata con vistas a las elecciones legislativas de noviembre que amenazan con amputar el poder real de Trump. Esos comicios están a la vez muy cerca en el ánimo de los votantes y las necesidades políticas domésticas, y muy lejos para llevar la guerra hasta entonces e intentar utilizarla para suspender la votación por una “emergencia nacional”, una tentación que recuerda el intentó sin éxito de Trump con las presidenciales de 2020 durante la pandemia de covid.

Especulaciones. Los costos del trayecto del conflicto a noviembre serían extraordinarios. Solo para el registro, en estas horas el republicano acaba de perder una elección estatal en un distrito de Palm Beach que incluye Mar-a-Lago, donde tiene su lujosa residencia. En 2011 había ganado ahí por un diferencia de once puntos. La realidad a veces es obstinada en sus señales.

In the wake of a deadly shooting in Chicago, Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., criticized his own party’s reluctance to talk about violent acts carried out by illegal aliens with criminal histories and condemned calls from Pennsylvania figures to instead target Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

Authorities are charging Jose Medina-Medina, a 25-year-old Venezuelan national, with the killing of a Loyola University student last week. Medina-Medina had already been arrested on unrelated charges months before but had been released.

«How many Democrats are talking about that case? I think probably none,» Fetterman said.

Fetterman said he was disappointed by calls from Philadelphia prosecutor Larry Krasner on Wednesday, who, less than a week after Medina-Medina’s shooting, had threatened to arrest ICE agents.

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«Lighten up, Francis,» Fetterman said, quoting overstated threats made by the comically aggressive character «Psycho» in the 1981 movie, Stripes.

«[Krasner] is constantly — he says a lot of tough things but, you know, like, you gotta lighten up, Francis.’»

Fetterman’s comments come amid a string of illegal aliens who carried out deadly attacks after being released from captivity for unrelated crimes.

To the Pennsylvanian political maverick, the trend should be an easy one to condemn.

«If you’re here in the country illegally already, and you’re breaking the law, like — ya gotta go,» Fetterman said.

In recent weeks, the deaths of Sheridan Gorman in Chicago at the hands of Medina-Medina and Stephanie Minter in Virginia, stabbed to death by Sierra Leone native Abdul Jalloh, have intensified calls from Republicans for greater scrutiny of illegal aliens with violent track records.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) blasted the leniency afforded to both suspects ahead of their deadly attacks.

EX-ILLINOIS GOVERNOR ROD BLAGOJEVICH SAYS SHERIDAN GORMAN’S KILLING MAY HAVE BEEN A ‘GANG INITIATION’

Sheridan Gorman smiles alongside the Chicago skyline in Illinois.  (Sheridan G. Gorman via Instagram)

«She was failed by open border policies and sanctuary politicians who RELEASED this illegal alien TWICE before he went on to commit this heinous murder,» a DHS spokesperson said of Gorman’s killer.

«We are calling on Governor J.B. Pritzker and Chicago’s sanctuary politicians to commit to not releasing this criminal illegal alien from jail back into American neighborhoods.»

Similarly, DHS blasted Jalloh’s 30 releases before he stabbed Minter in the neck at a bus stop.

«We are calling on Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger and Virginia’s sanctuary politicians to commit to not releasing this murderer and violent career criminal from their jail without notifying ICE,» DHS wrote.

Fetterman said the issue of repeat offenders has long-drawn his attention.

«From what I read, the individual that was accused of killing [Gorman]. He was arrested for shoplifting. That’s why I was the Democratic lead on Laken Riley,» Fetterman said, referring to the Laken Riley Act that Congress passed at the beginning of 2025.

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President Donald Trump signs the Laken Riley Act during in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

That bill requires detention for aliens convicted of bodily harm crimes like burglary, theft, larceny, shoplifting, among others, and empowers state attorneys general to sue the federal government for failure to do so.

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Fetterman believes the recent attacks underscore the need for vigilance in enforcing immigration law.

«It should remind everybody how important ICE is for our security,» Fetterman said.

Voters are not only dissatisfied with the direction of the country but also pessimistic about the economic outlook, financially strained in their own lives and unconvinced Washington leaders are in touch or will offer solutions. 

That’s according to a new Fox News national survey released Thursday. 

Nearly two-thirds, 64%, are dissatisfied with how things are going in the U.S. 

While that’s the highest dissatisfaction rating of President Trump’s second term, it’s also a small improvement from the 68% who were unhappy at the end of the Biden administration in December 2024.

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At the same time, majorities say national leaders are out of touch with people like them. Six in 10 voters say the White House is out of touch (60%), and similar shares say the same about congressional Republicans (61%) and congressional Democrats (58%). 

A quarter of both Democrats and Republicans think their respective party’s lawmakers are out of touch. Half of non-MAGA Republicans say the White House is out of touch.

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Trump receives negative marks across issues. His worst numbers are on inflation, with a new low of 28% approving. That’s down 7 points since January and 12 points since March 2025.

His 34% approval for the economy is another new low, down 6 points since January and 9 points from a year ago. Other ratings are also well underwater: healthcare (36 approve, 64 disapprove), Iran (36-64), taxes (36-64), foreign policy (38-62), and immigration (44-56). His best issue is border security (50-50), where equal numbers approve and disapprove.

The president’s overall job rating stands at 41% approve and 59% disapprove. Former President Obama had similar ratings at a comparable point in his second term, 40%-53% in March 2014.

Trump’s 59% disapproval is the highest of either term. Last month, 43% approved and 57% disapproved. A year ago, views were nearly evenly divided, 49-51%.

Current approval of Trump among Republicans is 84%, a second-term low (down from 92% last March), while disapproval has reached a high of 16%. Approval among non-MAGA Republicans dropped 11 points over the past year (70% to 59%). MAGA Republicans remain nearly unanimous with 97% approval, little changed from 98% a year ago. Fully 95% of Democrats disapprove, tying a record high this term. Independents are also negative, 75% disapprove.

The economy remains central to dissatisfaction. Large numbers of Democrats (91%) and independents (90%) rate it negatively, as do more than half of Republicans (52%).

Overall, 75% of voters say the economy is in bad shape, up 4 points since last month (71%). The number giving the economy negative marks has ranged from 67% to 79% since Trump took office in January 2025.

Personal financial assessments are similarly downbeat, with nearly half, 46%, saying they are falling behind. That’s up from 44% in December and just one point below the record high of 47% in June 2022.

That strain is reflected by 61% saying they could not miss more than two paychecks and still pay their bills. That’s up from 54% in both 2023 and 2019.

Two years ago, 17% lived paycheck-to-paycheck. Now, 27% say they couldn’t miss even one payday. That number climbs to 37% for those with annual household income below $50,000.

Neither major party has convinced voters it has a clear plan to address costs. Some 68% say the Democratic Party lacks a clear plan for bringing prices down, while 70% say the same about the GOP. More than 4 in 10 say neither party has a plan. Equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, 59%, say their respective party has a clear plan.

«The issue environment in 2026 has almost completely flipped from 2022 and 2024,» says Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. «Voters don’t think either side has a plan, of course, but since the GOP is in charge, they shoulder the blame.»

To top things off, voters don’t see the economy getting better anytime soon. A 53% majority anticipates economic conditions will worsen in the next year, up from 45% in January and more than double the share who see improvement (25%).

Republicans are alone in their optimism, expecting the economy to improve by a 19-point margin. Both independents (by 44 points) and Democrats (by 68 points) see the economy declining next year by wide margins. 

Concerns about the economy — day-to-day costs in particular — top the list of what worries voters most. A large majority of 86% is concerned about inflation and high prices, including 57% who are extremely concerned. Around 8 in 10 express concerns about healthcare (81%), gas prices (80%), and political divisions in the country (80%).

Seven in ten or more are worried about unemployment (73%), potential attacks in the United States (73% by Islamic terrorists and 70% non-Islamic terrorists) and their ability to pay their bills (70%). Concern also extends to gun violence (69%), Iran obtaining nukes (66%), AI technology (66%), antisemitism (63%) and detentions and deportations by ICE (62%).

Inflation is the top concern for Democrats, Republicans and independents. Healthcare is second for Democrats and independents, while Islamic terrorist attacks are second for Republicans. There is a consensus that political divisions within the country are a problem, with most Democrats (85%), Republicans (80%), and independents (70%) expressing concern.  

Worry about gas prices is widespread, with about 8 in 10 across all income levels — including $100,000 and above — saying they are concerned.

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Poll-pourri

Sixty-nine percent of voters support birthright citizenship for children born in the United States to illegal immigrants. That’s up from 67% in 2025 and from 45% when Fox News first asked the question in 2006. Current support stands at 91% among Democrats, 75% among independents and 44% among Republicans. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a birthright citizenship case April 1.

Conducted March 20-23, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,001 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (104) and cellphones (641) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (256). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.