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Donald Trump no puede salir de la guerra en Medio Oriente con retórica

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Casi tres semanas después del inicio de la guerra, Trump no tiene ningún plan evidente para lograr la caída del régimen iraní, algo que dijo que buscaba. Si su objetivo es más modesto, como la incautación del material nuclear iraní, no ha ofrecido ideas creíbles para lograrlo. Y no planificó una consecuencia previsible de una guerra en Medio Oriente: una interrupción del suministro de petróleo que provoque un aumento de los precios y perjudique a la economía mundial.

La guerra se ha convertido en un ejemplo del enfoque caótico y egoísta de la presidencia de Trump. A la hora de ordenar una acción militar, ha recurrido a un círculo de asesores más reducido que el de presidentes anteriores, y ha evitado el cuidadoso proceso diseñado para señalar objeciones y posibles problemas. Ha hecho declaraciones públicas ridículas y contradictorias, incluida la afirmación de que la guerra casi ha alcanzado sus objetivos. Ha intentado engañar al mundo sobre la trágica muerte de decenas de escolares iraníes, causada por un misil estadounidense mal dirigido. Casi a diario demuestra por qué no se le puede confiar los asuntos más trascendentales del gobierno.

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Leé también: Sin la OTAN y con críticas internas, Trump busca cómo abrir el estrecho de Ormuz y terminar la guerra con Irán

A pesar de todo esto, la guerra ha tenido algunos éxitos tácticos, y creemos que es importante reconocerlos, aunque sigan sin estar vinculados a una estrategia. Los instintos de Trump sobre Irán fueron acertados en algunos aspectos. Su gobierno es claramente peligroso: durante décadas ha oprimido a su propio pueblo, patrocinado el terrorismo, intentado destruir Israel, convertido al Líbano en un Estado fallido, protegido a un régimen atroz en Siria y ha desarrollado un programa nuclear. Trump también reconoció que el régimen de Irán era más débil de lo que aparentaba y podía debilitarse aún más mediante la confrontación.

En los últimos años, la combinación de sanciones económicas impuestas por Estados Unidos y sus aliados, junto con ataques militares, principalmente israelíes, ha debilitado la capacidad de Irán para generar conflictos regionales. El valor de su moneda se ha desplomado. Muchos de los dirigentes y científicos nucleares iraníes han muerto. Sus defensas aéreas están casi destruidas y sus arsenales de misiles están agotados. Dos de sus grupos aliados terroristas, Hamas y Hezbollah, están debilitados. Su Estado satélite en Siria fue derrocado por rebeldes locales.

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Pero al lanzar esta guerra hace dos semanas y media, Trump planteó objetivos más ambiciosos que simplemente contener a Irán. “Al gran y orgulloso pueblo de Irán, esta noche les digo que la hora de su libertad ha llegado”, dijo poco después de los primeros ataques. Ha pedido la rendición incondicional del gobierno iraní y ha dicho que debe aprobar al próximo dirigente del país. Ha prometido volver a hacer grande a Irán.

Una mujer se sienta sobre los escombros de un edificio residencial dañado durante la campaña aérea de Estados Unidos e Israel en Teherán, Irán, el jueves 12 de marzo de 2026. (AP Foto/Vahid Salemi)

Trump ni siquiera ha empezado a explicar cómo logrará ninguno de estos objetivos. Sus defensores han afirmado que su ambigüedad es una táctica para mantener abiertas sus opciones y mantener a su enemigo en incertidumbre. Cada vez más, la verdad parece ser que el presidente de Estados Unidos ha iniciado una guerra sin tener ni idea de cómo terminarla.

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Leé también: La “batalla del agua” en Medio Oriente: monarquías del Golfo temen ataques iraníes a plantas desalinizadoras

Tres problemas estratégicos han quedado claros desde que comenzó la guerra.

Primero, Trump repitió un error que presidentes estadounidenses han cometido durante décadas –en Afganistán, Irak, Vietnam e incluso en el propio Irán en los años cincuenta– al imaginar que un cambio de régimen sería más fácil de lograr y mantener de lo que realmente fue. En este caso, su arrogancia ha sido asombrosa. El poder aéreo por sí solo casi nunca derroca un gobierno. Solo las tropas sobre el terreno pueden apoderarse de los instrumentos del poder estatal e instalar a un nuevo líder.

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En desafío a esta historia, Trump y el primer ministro israelí Benjamin Netanyahu han soñado con un cambio de régimen. A veces se habla de armar a la minoría kurda de Irán o de acelerar el regreso de Reza Pahlavi, el hijo del sha depuesto, que ahora vive en un acomodado suburbio de Washington. Otras veces, Trump anima a las fuerzas de seguridad iraníes a desertar o a su pueblo a que “tomar las riendas” de su gobierno. No hay pruebas de que nada de esto esté funcionando. Después de que Trump alentara las protestas callejeras en enero, el régimen de Irán masacró a miles de manifestantes y permaneció firmemente al mando del país. Desde entonces, las protestas han cesado en gran medida.

Segundo, sigue sin estar claro cómo logrará Estados Unidos un objetivo crucial: garantizar que el régimen asesino de Irán no se convierta en una potencia nuclear. Se cree que sus reservas de uranio altamente enriquecido permanecen intactas, en un complejo de túneles bajo las montañas cerca de la ciudad de Isfahán. Si la guerra termina con Irán aún en posesión de ese arsenal, tendrá una vía para construir una bomba. Las humillaciones militares que ha sufrido en los últimos años le dan un incentivo para dar los pasos finales hacia un arma que antes no había dado.

Cuando empezó esta guerra, el Secretario de Estado Marco Rubio reconoció que los soldados sobre el terreno podrían ser la única manera de capturar el uranio. “Habrá que ir a buscarlo”, dijo. Sin embargo, cuando un presentador de Fox News Radio preguntó a Trump sobre el uranio la semana pasada, respondió: “No estamos enfocados en eso”. Aquí no hay respuestas fáciles. Pero el enfoque disperso de la planificación de la guerra no inspira confianza.

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El tercer problema afecta a la economía mundial. Las guerras de Medio Oriente son conocidas por provocar turbulencias económicas al elevar el precio del petróleo. Irán tenía una forma clara de repetir ese patrón: al restringir el tránsito de embarcaciones en el estrecho de Ormuz. Sin embargo, Trump intentó hacer que esta situación desapareciera por arte de magia.

Antes de la guerra, su principal asesor militar, el general Dan Caine, le advirtió de que Irán probablemente respondería atacando barcos en el estrecho y cerrándolo de facto. Trump respondió con sugiriendo que el gobierno de Irán capitularía antes de poder cerrar el estrecho o que el ejército estadounidense podría mantenerlo abierto, según The Wall Street Journal. Se equivocó, como debería haber sido obvio. Desde entonces, el precio del petróleo ha subido más de un 40 por ciento.

Fuego y columnas de humo se elevan desde una instalación petrolera en Fujairah, Emiratos Árabes Unidos, por un supuesto ataque iraní el sábado 14 de marzo de 2026. (AP Foto/Altaf Qadri)

Fuego y columnas de humo se elevan desde una instalación petrolera en Fujairah, Emiratos Árabes Unidos, por un supuesto ataque iraní el sábado 14 de marzo de 2026. (AP Foto/Altaf Qadri)

Sus respuestas han tenido un aire de desesperación. Levantó temporalmente las sanciones petroleras a Rusia, lo que es un regalo a un enemigo. Durante el fin de semana, recurrió a suplicar al Reino Unido, Francia, Japón, Corea del Sur –aliados a los que ha despreciado durante años– e incluso a China que enviaran fuerzas navales para proteger el estrecho.

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La guerra es incierta, y aún es posible que cualquiera de estos problemas empiece a parecer menos grave en las próximas semanas. Quizá surja de alguna manera una oposición iraní y el actual régimen colapse tan rápido como lo hizo el gobierno de Al Assad en Siria a finales de 2024. Quizá las fuerzas especiales retiren el uranio enriquecido sin víctimas. Quizá el ejército estadounidense, cuyo desempeño sigue siendo en gran medida impresionante, colabore con sus aliados para reabrir el estrecho de Ormuz. De hecho, acogeríamos con satisfacción cualquiera de estos resultados.

Sin embargo, las primeras semanas de esta guerra no inspiran confianza. Más bien sugieren que la planificación entre bastidores de la Casa Blanca podría haber sido tan imprudente como su comportamiento público. No solicitó la aprobación del Congreso para la guerra, como exige la Constitución. No planificó con aliados en Europa ni en Asia Oriental. Ofreció al pueblo estadounidense solo justificaciones superficiales para la guerra.

A lo largo de su carrera empresarial y política, Trump a menudo ha intentado crear su propia realidad. Cuando la verdad es inconveniente, la ignora y dice falsedades que lo favorecen. A menudo le ha funcionado. Pero la guerra suele ser menos susceptible a la manipulación narrativa que la política o la mercadotecnia. La realidad inicial de la guerra con Irán no se presta a la fanfarronería de Trump.

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*Por el Comité Editorial de The New York Times, conformado por un grupo de periodistas de opinión cuyos puntos de vista se basan en su experiencia, investigación, debates y unos valores muy arraigados. Es independiente de la sala de redacción.

The New York Times, Donald Trump

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Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei ‘misfunctioning,’ not controlling regime: sources

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Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is little more than an «empty entity» who is not at the helm of the regime, according to Israeli national security sources.

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The son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a targeted Israeli strike on Feb. 28, is also linked to what officials describe as a «misfunctioning» regime.

«The new leader is an empty entity,» Kobi Michael, a defense analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital.

TRUMP VOWS TO HIT IRAN ‘VERY HARD’ AFTER OBLITERATING NEARLY ’90 PERCENT’ OF REGIME MISSILES

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«Mojtaba Khamenei does not appear in public, but we also have reliable information that he does not control or lead the regime or what has been left of the regime.

«The current Iranian leadership is broken, confused and is almost misfunctioning.»

A mourner holds a poster depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor to his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the U.S.-Israel campaign in Tehran, Iran, March 11, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)

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Mojtaba reportedly escaped death by minutes when his father was killed Feb. 28, leaving the compound for a walk shortly before an Israeli missile strike, according to leaked audio accessed by The Telegraph.

The audio, reportedly from a March 12 meeting, revealed details about the strikes that also took out several members of the Khamenei family.

Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol for Khamenei’s office, is supposedly heard in the audio telling senior leaders that Mojtaba sustained «a minor injury to his leg.» 

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Since being named supreme leader, Mojtaba has not made one public appearance. Instead, a message by him was read on Iranian state TV, warning of continued strikes and urging Gulf nations to shut down U.S. bases.

ISRAEL KILLS IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE MINISTER WHO SURVIVED INITIAL STRIKE, OFFICIAL SAYS

Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani

Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani, a senior officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who commands Basij forces  (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein, File; Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images, File)

Other reports claimed Mojtaba was in critical condition or even in a coma, though Iranian officials have insisted that the new supreme leader is in good health.

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Mojtaba Khamenei vowed revenge Wednesday after the killing of senior security official Ali Larijani in an Israeli strike.

«Such acts of terror only reflect the enemies’ hostility and will strengthen the resolve of the Islamic nation. Undoubtedly, justice will be served,» the statement said.

Larijani, one of Iran’s top security figures, was killed after Israeli intelligence reportedly located him and other officials on the outskirts of Tehran.

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Other senior figures have also been killed in recent strikes, including Basij militia leader Gholamreza Soleimani, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

«This is not a new phase, but a continuing effort and a very successful and impressive one and a crucial component of the strategy meant to weaken the Iranian regime,» Michael said of the continued strikes at regime figures.

«This is to the degree that it will not be able to reconstitute itself and/or to become again a severe threat and destabilizing player in the broader Middle East.»

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US-SANCTIONED MOJTABA KHAMENEI NAMED IRAN’S NEXT SUPREME LEADER AFTER FATHER’S DEATH: REPORTS

President Donald Trump boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews.

President Donald Trump boards Air Force One Wednesday, March 18, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP Photo)

After the opening U.S.-Israeli strikes, President Donald Trump told the Iranian people that their «moment of freedom» was at hand.

«When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,» Trump said, suggesting the U.S. would help bring down the Iranian regime.

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«At the very same time, by weakening the regime and paralyzing its capacities generally speaking and its domestic control specifically, the U.S. and Israel are facilitating the required conditions for the Iranian people to topple the regime,» Michael added.

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«This is the ultimate victory in their eyes, and the route to this destination is that they are trying to increase any damage wherever they can.»

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GOP governors, AGs back Trump SAVE Act push, warn system gives ‘undue influence’ to states with illegal aliens

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FIRST ON FOX: Republican governors and attorneys general are backing President Donald Trump’s push to require proof of citizenship for voting, warning in an exclusive letter that current registration systems rely on an «honor system» and fail to adequately verify who is casting ballots in federal elections.

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The coalition argued the gaps give states with large populations of people in the country illegally «undue influence» over federal elections and how billions in taxpayer dollars are distributed.

The letters, from members of the America First Policy Institute’s (AFPI) Governors and Attorneys General Councils and obtained exclusively by Fox News Digital, show coordinated support from Republican state leaders for the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, legislation Trump has previously said he has to sign before he’ll sign anything else.

Trump has recently ramped up pressure on Congress to pass the SAVE Act, aka the SAVE America Act, calling mail-in voting «corrupt as h—» as the legislation moved to the Senate floor this week.

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THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO THE ‘TALKING FILIBUSTER’ AND THE SAVE ACT

Republican governors and attorneys general back President Donald Trump’s push to require proof of citizenship for voting in letters exclusively provided to Fox News Digital by the America First Policy Institute. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

«The biggest thing coming up is the SAVE America Act in the Senate,» Trump said Tuesday, adding, «Who would not have voter ID, who would not have proof of citizenship? … The only people who would want not to have that are people that want to cheat.»

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Senate Republicans have already taken initial steps to advance the bill, voting 51-48 to begin debate, though its path forward remains uncertain as Democrats remain unified in opposition.

In a letter to Senate leadership, members of AFPI’s Governors Council described the SAVE America Act as a «commonsense measure» to ensure elections are decided «by, and only by, American citizens.»

GOP TRIGGERS MARATHON SENATE FIGHT TO EXPOSE DEMS’ OPPOSITION TO TRUMP-BACKED VOTER ID BILL

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People with signs supporting the SAVE act at Upper Senate Park

People with signs supporting the SAVE Act in Washington, D.C. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

The letter was signed by a group of Republican governors, including Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, as well as attorneys general from states including Iowa, Alabama and South Carolina.

They argued that while federal law limits voting in federal elections to U.S. citizens, states are «not required to verify citizenship at the time of registration.»

«States with large illegal populations and little to no safeguards… unfairly hold undue influence in our Nation’s law-making process and how billions of dollars in tax revenue are distributed,» the governors wrote.

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REPS. FINE, SELF, HARRIS, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH: WE’LL BLOCK THE SENATE UNTIL THE SAVE ACT PASSES

People gathered outdoors hold signs and watch a speaker address a crowd near the U.S. Capitol.

Attendees listen as Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, speaks at an «Only Citizens Vote» bus tour rally advocating passage of the SAVE Act at Upper Senate Park, Sept. 10, 2025, outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

The governors also pointed to gaps in current systems, noting that while many states require identification at the polls, others lack mechanisms to verify eligibility at the registration stage. They said they are prepared to work with state election officials to implement the law in a way that protects access for eligible voters while strengthening safeguards.

In a separate letter, Republican attorneys general echoed those concerns, focusing on enforcement and the structure of current voter registration systems.

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«Existing voter registration procedures largely rely on the honor system, with voters simply checking a box to claim U.S. citizenship without requiring any documentary verification,» the group wrote. The attorneys general said the SAVE Act would close that gap by requiring applicants to provide «documentary proof of United States citizenship» when registering to vote in federal elections.

They emphasized that the bill would preserve state control over election administration.

«[The SAVE Act] does not nationalize elections,» the group wrote, adding that it also would not «disenfranchise American citizens.»

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The White House calls President Donald Trump’s SAVE America Act "commonsense legislation."

The White House calls President Donald Trump’s SAVE America Act «commonsense legislation.» (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The attorneys general also pushed back on criticism of the proposal, writing: «It is an insult to suggest that minorities, women, or members of the working class are not smart enough to obtain and provide simple proofs of citizenship.»

The governors said they are committed to implementing the law in a way that ensures «no eligible American citizen is unduly burdened» while preventing ineligible registrations.

«Our constituents deserve to know that their votes are protected and that elections in this country are free, fair, and secure,» they wrote.

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«President Trump’s SAVE America Act is commonsense legislation supported by the vast majority of Americans who want to ensure our elections are secure and that only American citizens vote in American elections,» White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said to Fox News Digital in a statement. «Our elections should be treated with the utmost security and the SAVE America Act will ensure that they are.»

The governors’ letter and attorneys’ general letter can be read at the links provided here.

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Fox News Digital’s Greg Wehner contributed to this reporting.

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GOP overperforms in Virginia special election, fueling early momentum talk in blue-trending state

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A Republican running in a Virginia special election significantly outperformed expectations Tuesday night, sparking chatter on social media that Republicans could have momentum in the blue-trending state where Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger has faced backlash for her progressive agenda since taking office. 

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In the race to replace Republican Virginia House District 98 Delegate Barry Knight, who died of cancer last month, Andrew Rice defeated Democrat Cheryl Smith by 25 points in a climate where voters in the commonwealth have been turning to Democrats in recent elections.

Conservatives on social media were quick to point out that Rice, who, despite holding onto a Republican seat, outperformed the candidate for Republican governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, in November and outperformed President Donald Trump’s 2024 total by 10 points, sparking belief in possible GOP momentum and backlash toward Spanberger.

«Republican Andrew Rice is currently ahead +29 in a district that was Sears +7 in November,» conservative commentator Greg Price posted on X. «A 22 point swing to the GOP.»

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MIGRANT ACCUSED OF GROPING MULTIPLE HIGH SCHOOL GIRLS FACES CHARGES AS DHS WARNS SPANBERGER AGAINST RELEASE

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger has ended agreements between state law enforcement agencies and federal immigration authorities.  (Marvin Joseph/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

«Radical Dems are overreaching in Virginia & voters have noticed,» Republican Virginia House of Delegates member Tim Griffin posted on X. «Big REPUBLICAN WIN in Virginia tonight, congrats Delegate-Elect Rice!»

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«The momentum is REAL, and Virginians are paying attention and are fed up with the progressive liberal agenda trying to take over our Commonwealth,» Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans posted on X.

«Whoa!» Kerry Dougherty, co-host of a Virginia Beach radio show and longtime journalist, posted on X. «This is a red district but looks like backlash against our insane governor and the left-wing nuts in the General Assembly. Congratulations to Andrew Rice. A determined prosecutor (which will make the lefties crazy).»

VIRGINIA DEMS SEND SWEEPING GUN BAN TO SPANBERGER AS WEST VIRGINIA WEIGHS EXPANDING MACHINE-GUN ACCESS

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The domed Virginia State Capitol serves as the backdrop for a gubernatorial swearing-in ceremony in Richmond.

The Virginia Capitol during the inauguration ceremony of Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger in Richmond Jan. 17, 2026. (Kendall Warner/The Virginian-Pilot via Getty Images)

Also at play is what Virginia elections analyst Sam Shirazi called the «elephant in the room» on his «Federal Fallout» podcast.

«I think one explanation of what happened is the Republicans are fired up, and they’re upset about the redistricting referendum,» Shirzi said about Rice’s victory and a possible connection to an April referendum that would trigger a mid-cycle redrawing of the state’s congressional map to heavily favor Democrats.

«Potentially, they could also be generally upset at what’s been going on in Richmond since the Democrats took over in January. So, perhaps they’re upset with some of the bills that have been passed.»

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Obama campaigning for Spanberger in Virginia

Former President Obama and Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger. (Win McNamee/Getty)

Reacting to Rice’s victory, Republican Virginia Delegate Karen Hamilton posted on X, «If we could get some funds, we can win this redistricting fight in Virginia and secure the midterms for @POTUS.»

«Republicans in Virginia are overperforming so strongly that the gerrymander attempt is suddenly looking much riskier for Dems,» conservative commentator and writer Ben Braddock posted on X. 

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Spanberger has faced some intense criticism from conservatives since taking office in January, particularly over the allegation she campaigned as a «moderate» candidate but quickly began implementing a radical agenda as soon as she took office.

Since taking office, Spanberger has ended state cooperation with ICE, reduced mandatory minimum sentencing, raised taxes and prioritized DEI in government contracts, Fox News Digital reported in January.

Fox News Digital reached out to Spanberger’s office for comment. 

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Fox News Digital’s Alec Schemmel contributed to this report.

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