A new Fox News survey finds Democrat Mikie Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 5 points among New Jersey likely voters (50-45%), down from an 8-point lead in late September (50-42%). Among registered voters, she’s up by 4 points (48-44%), down from a 7-point lead (48-41%). 

Either way, the race has tightened, and Sherrill’s edge is inside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

This analysis uses registered voter results.

FOX NEWS POLL: DEMOCRAT SHERRILL LEADS NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR’S RACE

Key groups that give Sherrill her advantage include Black voters, those under age 35, women ages 45 and younger, those with a college degree and Hispanic voters.

Ciattarelli’s best groups include MAGA supporters, men without a college degree, White men, Catholics and those ages 55-64.

About nine in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say they are certain to back them, but more of Ciattarelli’s supporters (69%) say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this year than Sherrill’s (64%). On both sides, one in 10 supporters say they could change their mind before voting.

Recent campaign attacks have taken a toll on the candidates’ favorability and honesty ratings.

Sherrill’s honesty and trustworthy marks remain positive overall — but have declined since late September. More voters now view her as more honest than not, by a 5-point margin (52–47%), down from a 16-point advantage just three weeks ago (56–40%).

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A similar shift occurred in her personal ratings. Sherrill was viewed more favorably than unfavorably by 10 points last month (51-41%) — and, now, views are net positive by only 2 points (50-48%).

Views of Ciattarelli have also shifted negatively, though not as much as Sherrill’s. On honesty, his marks have gone from being in positive territory by 4 points in September to underwater by 2 points today. His favorable ratings are net negative by 3 points now vs. by 2 points last month.

«The allegations about Sherrill’s record at the Naval Academy damaged her, but the manner in which those records were obtained have left Ciattarelli open to criticism as well,» says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll with Democratic counterpart Chris Anderson. 

«On the whole, it seems Ciattarelli has benefited slightly, if only because he was behind and needed to change the dynamics of the race.»

On some traits, perceptions of the candidates are closely aligned. For instance, 54% think Sherrill, a U.S. congresswoman, is a «strong leader» and an equal number, 54%, feel the same about Ciatterelli, a former state assemblyman. Half believe the phrase «can bring needed change» applies to each. 

On other characteristics, there are modest differences — such as empathy: 55% think «cares about people like me» describes Sherrill, compared to 49% for Ciattarelli.

Voters identify taxes (34%) and the cost of living (19%) as the top two problems facing the Garden State, and a larger number trusts Sherrill to handle both of those — by 3 points on taxes and by 6 points on the cost of living. She is also favored on energy costs (+3) and healthcare (+14), while more trust Ciattarelli to handle crime (+7).

Some 92% of Republicans support Ciattarelli, and 89% of Democrats back Sherrill, while the small subgroup of independents splits. Sherrill benefits from more NJ voters identifying as Democrats than Republicans. 

The candidates are competing to fill term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s seat. He beat Ciattarelli by about 3 points in the last election and leaves the governor’s mansion with mixed marks: 47% of New Jersey voters have a positive view of him vs. 49% negative. 

In addition, while more than half, 55%, are currently unhappy with how things are going in the state, that’s an improvement from 62% who were dissatisfied in the months preceding Murphy’s first term. 

In both 2020 and 2016, President Donald Trump received 41% of the vote in New Jersey. He performed better in 2024, garnering 46%, yet still losing to former Vice President Kamala Harris (52%).

Today, 45% of New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% view him unfavorably. That’s up from eight years ago. During his first term, it was 36% favorable vs. 62% unfavorable.

NJ: CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE

Conducted October 10-14, 2025 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,002 New Jersey registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (153) and cellphones (592) or completed the survey online by following a link received via text message (257). There was a subsample of 869 likely voters. Results based on both the registered voter and likely voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are identified based on past vote history and self-reported likelihood of voting. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.

Fox News’s Victoria Balara contributed to this report.