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Here are the key 2026 House and Senate races to watch that could decide control of Congress

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With margins tight in both chambers, control of Congress in 2026 is expected to hinge on a small group of competitive Senate contests and House districts sensitive to national trends. As America plunges into a new year, here are the races that are most likely to define the midterm races.

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Senate majority-making or majority-breaking races to watch

Senate Republicans are looking to maintain their razor-thin majority after flipping the upper chamber in 2024. There are 33 seats in-cycle in the forthcoming midterms, which often act as a check on an incumbent president’s performance.

The GOP is hoping to replicate the Election Day successes that helped preserve its majority at the midpoint of President Donald Trump’s first term, entering 2026 with what many analysts consider a favorable map.

Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat from Georgia, listens during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025. (Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

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Georgia

Why it matters: Georgia is the top prize of Senate Republicans and their campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., is vulnerable in his first attempt at re-election to the Senate and will be met with the full weight of the NRSC’s campaign war chest. 

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What to watch: Before the general election, Republicans will first have to let the dust settle on a bloody, four-way primary fight among Reps. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., Mike Collins, R-Ga., former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley and horse trainer Reagan Box. Republicans’ prized candidate, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, opted not to enter the contest, leaving a wide open playing field for the GOP to fight over. 

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North Carolina

North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley gives an address.

North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley will compete for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images)

Why it matters: In the heat of the Senate advancing Trump’s «big, beautiful bill,» Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., announced his retirement. What would likely have been a gimme race for the GOP has now turned into a wide open contest for an open seat. 

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What to watch: Democrats believe they can flip the seat for the first time since 2008 and hope that former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper will carry them to victory and provide a crucial win to tip the balance of power. Republicans scored their preferred candidate, too, in former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. He will have a primary challenge though from Michele Morrow. 

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Michigan

Gary Peters speaks during Day 2 of the Democratic National Convention

Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced his retirement, opening up a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan. (REUTERS/Mike Segar)

Why it matters: Similar to North Carolina, Democrats lost their incumbent Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., to retirement. Both parties are now gunning for the open seat, but Democrats’ have a tangled primary to survive first before their true candidate emerges. 

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What to watch: Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and physician Abdul El-Sayed, are all in on the Democratic side, while Trump and Republicans have coalesced behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year. 

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Maine

Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins answers reporters questions as she walks to a meeting at the U.S. Capitol.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is looking to secure a sixth term in the Senate. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Why it matters: Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is Senate Democrats’ top target in the midterms. Collins, who is looking to score a sixth term in the Senate, could face a formidable opponent in the general election with the full backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., or an upstart progressive candidate that’s looking to throw a wrench into Democrats’ plans. 

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What to watch: There are several local candidates that have jumped in on both sides of the race, but the main contenders are Collins, popular Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and oyster farmer Graham Platner, who has rubbed shoulders with progressive heavyweights Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. 

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Ohio

Sen Jon Husted

Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican from Ohio, will face Democrat challenger Sen. Sherrod Brown. (Getty Images)

Why it matters: Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, who was appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance earlier this year, will look to finish out the remaining two years of his predecessor’s term. But he’ll face a tough opponent in former Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who narrowly lost last year.  

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What to watch: Schumer and Democrats scored their best chance at picking up a seat in Ohio, again trying to turn the state purple after Brown’s loss to Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio. And there will be eye-popping amounts of money thrown at this contest. 

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New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., said she will leave Congress at the end of her term. (Getty Images)

Why it matters: Democrats took yet another hit from the retirement train when Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., announced she’d leave Congress at the end of her term. That has opened up the field to several familiar Republican names jumping into the contest in the hopes of turning part of the Granite State red. 

What to watch: Republicans have two prime candidates, former Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., and former Rep. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who also served as an ambassador for Trump, to pick from. Meanwhile, Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., is the likely heir apparent on the Democratic side. 

House races that will decide the majority

Control of the House is likely to hinge on fewer than two dozen districts nationwide, as both parties focus their resources on a small set of competitive seats that could decide the chamber. The battlegrounds span suburbs, rural communities and diverse metro areas, underscoring how varied the path to a majority has become.

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Colorado’s 8th District, Northern Denver suburbs and Greeley

Rep. Gabe Evans

Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Colo., will look to defend his seat in an increasingly competitive district. (Tierney L. Cross/Getty Images)

Why it matters: With GOP Rep. Gabe Evans defending the seat, Colorado’s 8th District remains one of the most competitive House districts in the country. Drawn as a true swing seat after redistricting, it has flipped parties in back-to-back cycles and is often decided by slim margins.

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What to watch: Whether Latino and working-class voters break decisively toward one party and whether the race is decided by a narrow margin. A comfortable win here typically signals momentum heading into other battleground House races.

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Iowa’s 1st District, Eastern Iowa

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks holds Iowa’s 1st District, which is again shaping up as a key battleground. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Why it matters: With a history of close results, Iowa’s 1st District is once again a top battleground as Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks seeks re-election.

5 PIVOTAL 2026 SENATE RACES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN GOVERNING TRIFECTA UNDER TRUMP

What to watch: The district spans college towns, rural counties and small manufacturing hubs, creating an electorate that frequently splits its ticket. Even as Iowa trends red at the presidential level, the seat continues to hover in toss-up territory and is often among the last House races decided on election night.

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New Jersey’s 7th District, North Jersey suburbs

Thomas Kean

Republican Rep. Thomas Kean is seeking to defend his seat in what is shaping up to be a competitive race. (Getty)

Why it matters: Held by GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., New Jersey’s 7th is a high-income, college-educated suburban district that has repeatedly swung with the national political climate and historically punished incumbents during unfavorable cycles.

What to watch: Whether suburban voters continue drifting away from Republicans or stabilize in a midterm environment. A shift here would offer an early read on how educated suburbs are responding to the party in power.

New York’s 17th District, Hudson Valley and NYC’s northern suburbs

House GOP 7/15/25

With national groups pouring in money and messaging, Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., is gearing up for a high-profile race. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Why it matters: New York’s 17th District, which previously backed former President Joe Biden, is represented by GOP Rep. Mike Lawler and is expected to play an outsized role in determining House control.

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GOP SENATE CAMPAIGN CHIEF AIMS TO EXPAND 2026 MAP IN THIS BLUE-LEANING STATE

What to watch: Whether Democrats can effectively harness heavy national spending and messaging in a district expected to draw intense attention.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Lehigh Valley and Allentown

Ryan Mackenzie sits in a committee hearing

Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa., will likely address immigration and economic pressures during his campaign. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Why it matters: Held by Republican Rep. Chris Mackenzie, Pennsylvania’s 7th is a true purple district in a must-win swing state. This area is made up of a politically diverse electorate that has previously mirrored statewide results.

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What to watch: Economic pressures and immigration debates are expected to shape how working-class and Latino voters approach the race.

California’s 22nd District, Central Valley

U.S. Rep. David Valadao

Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., will need to win Latino votes in this upcoming race. (Juan Esparza Loera/The Fresno Bee/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Why it matters: California’s 22nd, represented by GOP Rep. David Valadao, has remained a perennial battleground for more than a decade, shaped by its agricultural economy and a large Latino electorate sensitive to turnout swings.

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What to watch: Whether Democrats can boost turnout enough to flip the seat, and whether Central Valley races help offset Republican gains elsewhere in the country.

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Cómo la guerra de Trump contra Irán cambió el mundo en una semana

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BERLÍN — Desde que el presidente Donald Trump lanzó una nueva guerra contra Irán, la ha descrito como un ataque impactante y aterrador con pocas consecuencias duraderas, especialmente para los estadounidenses.

El lunes en Florida, la calificó de «breve interrupción«.

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Los expertos dicen que rápidamente se está convirtiendo en algo completamente distinto:

una sacudida al orden de seguridad y a la economía global que supera con creces las provocadas por otros conflictos recientes en Medio Oriente.

La guerra de Trump, que ya lleva casi dos semanas, ya está transformando los patrones de viaje, la dependencia energética, el costo de la vida, las rutas comerciales y las alianzas estratégicas.

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Países habitualmente protegidos de los conflictos regionales, como Chipre y los Emiratos Árabes Unidos, se han enfrentado al fuego iraní en represalia.

Las consecuencias podrían perturbar las elecciones de mitad de mandato en Estados Unidos, inclinar la balanza bélica en Ucrania y obligar a China a un importante giro económico.

Estos efectos podrían agravarse si Trump sigue adelante con la guerra, sobre todo si Irán intensifica sus contraataques y bloquea el tráfico marítimo a través del crucial paso petrolero del Estrecho de Ormuz.

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Algunos economistas ya evocan un recuerdo temido para cualquier presidente estadounidense:

el espectro de la estanflación inducida por la crisis petrolera, con el estancamiento del crecimiento y el alza vertiginosa de los precios.

“Tengo la edad suficiente para recordar los acontecimientos de los años 70, y un mundo en el que las subidas repentinas del precio del petróleo eran un problema importante tanto a nivel económico como para un presidente que podría enfrentarse a elecciones”, dijo Suzanne Maloney, experta en Irán de la Brookings Institution.

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“Eso no parece haberse tenido en cuenta en la toma de decisiones”, añadió.

La guerra está afectando de forma más inmediata y visceral a Oriente Medio.

Los ataques en toda la región han causado la muerte de más de 1.000 personas y graves daños a infraestructuras críticas y al medio ambiente, desatando columnas de humo nocivo y lluvia negra sobre Teherán, la capital iraní, tras los ataques israelíes contra depósitos de combustible.

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El conflicto ha sacudido los cimientos de las economías del Golfo Pérsico, resquebrajando su imagen cuidadosamente cultivada de refugios seguros en una región turbulenta.

Irán ha lanzado más ataques contra los países del Golfo que contra Israel, según un observatorio de guerra estadounidense, atacando hoteles de cinco estrellas, dañando plantas desalinizadoras y obligando a los turistas a huir en busca de rutas de evacuación.

Los aeropuertos de Dubái y Abu Dabi, en los Emiratos Árabes Unidos, han sido objeto de ataques.

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Las autoridades europeas siguen intentando rescatar a sus ciudadanos, que se han quedado varados en lo que antes parecían tranquilos destinos vacacionales.

El Departamento de Estado de EE.UU., tras recibir críticas iniciales por actuar con demasiada lentitud, afirmó haber organizado más de dos docenas de vuelos chárter y haber evacuado a miles de estadounidenses de Oriente Medio.

Daños

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Los expertos advierten que el daño a la reputación persistirá en el Golfo. Más allá de la riqueza que poseen esos países, «la verdadera moneda de cambio era la confianza», afirmó Emile Hokayem, experto en Oriente Medio del Instituto Internacional de Estudios Estratégicos, en una mesa redonda esta semana.

“No se trataba solo del dinero, sino del hecho de que podían decirle a la gente, con realismo, que es un buen ambiente de negocios y que se sentirán seguros”, dijo.

“Somos inmunes a la política regional. Pueden invertir aquí. Pueden usarnos para su comercio, sus aerolíneas, sus comunicaciones, su tecnología, etc. Y eso es lo que buscan los iraníes, ¿verdad?”

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Para gran parte del resto del mundo, uno de los primeros efectos de la guerra se sintió en las estaciones de servicio.

Cuando los petroleros dejaron de transitar por el estrecho de Ormuz, los precios del petróleo superaron los 100 dólares por barril en los mercados globales, aunque han bajado ligeramente en los últimos días.

El presidente francés, Emmanuel Macron, anunció el lunes que su país enviaría 10 buques de guerra a la región, posiblemente para escoltar buques a través del estrecho.

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Funcionarios de la administración Trump y líderes europeos han explorado opciones en los últimos días para reducir los precios de la estación de servicio, que han aumentado junto con el precio global del petróleo.

Los economistas han comenzado a advertir que, si la crisis del petróleo persiste durante semanas, podría desencadenar una escalada de aumentos de precios en todas las economías, arrastrando así el crecimiento económico, un destino similar a la estanflación que siguió a la revolución iraní de 1979.

“Que la historia se repita dependerá de cuánto dure este conflicto”, escribieron esta semana investigadores del Deutsche Bank.

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Efectos

La pérdida de acceso a petróleo barato es un riesgo emergente para China, y no el único.

Los exportadores chinos dependen cada vez más de los consumidores de Oriente Medio.

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Una perturbación en las economías de Oriente Medio podría limitar las ventas de productos chinos allí, socavando así el propio crecimiento de China.

El aumento de los precios del petróleo, por el contrario, beneficia a Rusia, al aumentar los ingresos petroleros que contribuyen a financiar la maquinaria bélica de Moscú en Ucrania.

A los europeos también les preocupa que los intensos combates en Oriente Medio perjudiquen indirectamente las defensas ucranianas: cuantos más misiles interceptores utilicen Estados Unidos y sus aliados para contrarrestar a Irán, menos tendrá Ucrania a su disposición para defenderse de los ataques rusos.

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En Estados Unidos, la guerra ya parece ser un lastre político para Trump.

Cuenta con relativamente poco apoyo público en comparación con guerras anteriores.

Los demócratas están aprovechando el aumento de los costos de la energía para cortejar a los votantes antes de las elecciones de mitad de mandato, que ya se centraban en el aumento del costo de la vida.

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De manera más inmediata, ha ensombrecido un evento que Trump esperaba que fuera un triunfo estadounidense emblemático bajo su presidencia:

la Copa Mundial de fútbol masculino, que comenzará este verano en Estados Unidos, Canadá y México.

Irán es uno de los equipos programados para competir.

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Pero no está claro si su equipo podrá participar, ni qué podría suceder si no lo logra.

En público, Trump ha pregonado el poderío militar que Estados Unidos e Israel han invertido en la guerra, al tiempo que ofrece explicaciones variables sobre las causas de los ataques contra Irán y plazos variables para su posible finalización.

Ha reconocido algunos costos de la guerra, incluyendo la pérdida de militares estadounidenses desde su inicio.

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El presidente ha desestimado en gran medida otras desventajas, como el aumento del precio del petróleo, considerándolas temporales.

Ha alarmado a sus aliados al ofrecer pocos planes concretos sobre cómo funcionará el gobierno iraní después de la guerra.

Dudas

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En Europa, esto ha suscitado la preocupación de que la economía iraní se desplome y que, con el tiempo, pueda impulsar nuevas oleadas de migrantes a través de la frontera entre Irán y Turquía.

Para los europeos, esto evoca recuerdos de la crisis migratoria del continente de hace una década, cuando los conflictos y la pobreza en Oriente Medio y África llevaron a más de un millón de personas a buscar refugio en Europa, lo que provocó una reacción violenta de la derecha en países como Alemania.

“Estados Unidos e Israel llevan más de una semana librando una guerra contra Irán. Compartimos muchos de sus objetivos”, declaró el martes el canciller alemán Friedrich Merz.

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“Pero con cada día que dura la guerra, surgen más preguntas. Nos preocupa especialmente que no parezca haber un plan común para concluir esta guerra de forma rápida y convincente”.

c.2026 The New York Times Company

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China passes ‘ethnic unity’ law in push for assimilation

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China’s top legislature on Thursday passed an «Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law,» formalizing Beijing’s long-running push to strengthen national identity and ethnic integration.

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The legislation was approved at the closing meeting of the fourth session of the 14th National People’s Congress during its annual parliamentary gathering in Beijing.

State-affiliated media Xinhua previously reported that the law would seek to codify «fostering a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation» into state policy. 

It would also bolster high-quality development in areas with large ethnic minority populations and promote what officials describe as common prosperity among China’s 56 ethnic groups.

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CHINESE UNDERGROUND CHURCH PASTOR, FATHER OF US CITIZENS, DETAINED BY AUTHORITIES, FAMILY SAYS

Ethnic minority delegates arrive for the opening session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, March 4, 2026. (Vincent Thian/AP)

Li Hongzhong, vice chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, said the measure was aimed at advancing the governance of ethnic affairs under the rule of law.

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«The people of each ethnic group, all organizations and groups of the country, armed forces, every Party and social organization, every company, must forge a common consciousness of the Chinese nation according to law and the constitution, and take the responsibility of building this consciousness,» the proposed law reads, according to a translation from The Associated Press.

Academics and outside observers say the provision could undermine the cultural identity of ethnic minorities by requiring the use of Mandarin in compulsory education and establishing a legal basis to pursue individuals or organizations outside China whose actions are deemed to undermine «ethnic unity,» the AP reported.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping stands with senior leaders as they applaud during a legislative session inside Beijing’s Great Hall of the People.

Xi Jinping, China’s president, center, applauds during the closing session of the National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, March 12, 2026. (Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

China’s population stands at 1.44 billion as of November 2020, according to the Seventh National Population Census released in 2021 by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Of that total, 91.11% were Han Chinese and 8.89% belonged to ethnic minority groups.

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Delegates in traditional attire respond during a high-level political advisory meeting inside Beijing’s Great Hall of the People.

Delegates wearing traditional clothing react at the closing session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Beijing, March 11, 2026. (Kevin Frayer/Getty)

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James Leibold, a professor at Australia’s La Trobe University, told the AP the new measure «puts a death nail in the party’s original promise of meaningful autonomy.»

Rayhan Asat, a legal scholar at Harvard University, also criticized the law, saying it «serves as a strategic tool and gives the pretext to government to commit all sorts of human rights violations.»

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Powell’s behind-the-scenes move after Trump’s DOJ opened its criminal probe

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell moved quickly behind the scenes after the Justice Department opened a criminal probe into his statements to Congress, with his calendar showing a burst of outreach to U.S. lawmakers.

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The entries don’t reveal what was discussed, but they show Powell made 13 calls to senators and House members shortly after he accused the DOJ of using subpoenas as a «pretext» to ramp up pressure on the central bank to cut rates. The rapid-fire calls ranged from 10 to 15 minutes each. 

The Fed releases Powell’s monthly schedule with about a two-month lag, which is why the scope of that outreach is only now coming into view.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s calendar showing some of his phone calls with members of Congress. (Federal Reserve/Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

Powell’s calendar lists calls with Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska; Shelley Moore Capito, R-W. Va.; Mark Warner, D-Va.; Bill Cassidy, R-La.; John Kennedy, R-La.; Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.; Mike Crapo, R-Idaho; James Lankford, R-Okla.; and Tim Scott, R-S.C., as well as Reps. Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio; Maxine Waters, D-Calif.; Steny Hoyer, D-Md.; and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.

Powell’s schedule also lists a breakfast meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Jan. 15, four days after the investigation was disclosed.

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Working Capitol Hill has long been central to Powell’s playbook, with the Fed chair regularly logging more one-on-one time with lawmakers than any modern predecessor. 

DOJ’S CRIMINAL PROBE OF FED CHAIR POWELL SPARKS RARE GOP REVOLT ON CAPITOL HILL

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a conference in Washington, DC.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held phone calls with lawmakers in the days after the Justice Department announced its probe. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Still, the week of Jan. 11 stood out even for Powell. The last time he reached more lawmakers in a single week was February 2025, ahead of his semiannual testimony, when he typically schedules a run of prehearing calls with key members.

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This burst was different, though it followed Powell’s Jan. 11 disclosure that the Justice Department had opened a criminal investigation tied to his congressional testimony on the Federal Reserve’s two historic main buildings on the National Mall.

Powell, in a rare video statement, called the probe «unprecedented» and described it as another salvo in what he described as President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign on the central bank to cut rates. The unusually public response followed days of private consultations with advisors and stood out for a Fed chair known for a measured approach.

The investigation centers on Powell’s June 2025 testimony to lawmakers, an unusual development for a sitting Fed chair.

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TRUMP VS THE FEDERAL RESERVE: HOW THE CLASH REACHED UNCHARTED TERRITORY

The atrium of the Federal Reserve building under construction.

The grand atrium of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building is under construction on July 24, 2025. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell said: «There’s no new marble. There are no special elevators. They’re old elevators that have been there. There are no new water features. There are no beehives, and there’s no roof garden terraces.»

Powell added that no one «wants to do a major renovation of a historic building during their term in office,» and said cost overruns were driven in part by unexpected construction challenges and inflation.

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The renovation is estimated to cost $2.5 billion and is being funded by the central bank itself, not by taxpayers.

The Fed is self-financing and does not rely on congressional appropriations to cover its operating expenses, which include employee salaries, facilities maintenance and the current renovation. Its primary income comes from interest earned on government securities and fees charged to financial institutions.

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President Donald Trump speaks to Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Federal Reserve construction site

President Donald Trump nominated Powell to lead the Federal Reserve in 2017. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

Trump has repeatedly targeted the project, threatening legal action and mocking the renovation’s cost and design.

«They’re building a basement into the Potomac River. I could have told them. That’s very tough to do, and it doesn’t work, and it’s very expensive,» Trump said. «But they’re up to $4 billion, headed by this clown,» he added in November, referring to Powell.

Powell, a Trump nominee first tapped to lead the Fed in 2017, is expected to finish his term at the end of May. Trump has picked former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Powell, but the nomination is effectively stuck after Sen. Thom Tillis vowed to block any Fed nominees while the DOJ probe remains open.

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The Federal Reserve declined to comment on Powell’s calendar.

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