The man reportedly being floated by the Trump administration as a possible interlocutor with Iran is also one of the regime’s most hardline figures — Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The longtime Revolutionary Guards commander is widely described by experts as a loyal «yes man,» with a record of threats against the United States and deep ties to the system’s inner circle.

That contradiction underscores the central question facing U.S. policymakers: Even if Washington is speaking to the «right people,» as President Donald Trump has claimed, can someone like Ghalibaf actually deliver?

«Ghalibaf doesn’t have an independent line. His strength is that he is a ‘yes man,’» said Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies. He added, «If he is told to shake hands with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, he will do it. If he is told to escalate, he will. It is not about moderation, it is about who gives the orders.»

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Regime Insider 

Ghalibaf, 64, is a product of Iran’s security establishment.

He rose through the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during the Iran-Iraq War, eventually becoming commander of the IRGC air force.

«He even completed flight training abroad, which was not unusual at the time, with France reportedly assisting at one stage. Until recently, he was still conducting training flights in France,» said Sabti.

He later served as Iran’s national police chief, overseeing internal security forces responsible for suppressing protests, including the 1999 student uprising, alongside Qassem Soleimani.

After transitioning into politics, Ghalibaf attempted to run for president multiple times but failed. He instead built his career through loyalty to the system, serving as Tehran’s mayor for more than a decade before becoming speaker of parliament in 2020.

«Ghalibaf went on to serve in senior national roles and is now speaker of parliament. He has consistently aligned himself with the supreme leader and follows directives rather than setting his own independent positions,» Sabti said.

«His name has also been linked to multiple corruption allegations, including misuse of oil revenues and sanctions evasion networks involving his family. His sons have reportedly been involved and are under sanctions,» Sabti said, adding, «There have also been public scandals involving family members traveling abroad and making luxury purchases, including widely circulated images of them arriving with numerous high-end Gucci suitcases.»

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Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf listens as parliament members chant in support of the IRGC in Tehran, Iran, Feb 1, 2026. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/West Asia News Agency/Handout via Reuters)

Limited Authority

Ghalibaf’s wartime statements reflect a hardening tone inside Iran’s leadership.

He has rejected ceasefire terms, declaring Iran would continue fighting «until the enemy truly regrets its aggression.»

He has also warned that attacks on Iranian infrastructure would trigger retaliation across the region, including against energy targets.

At the same time, he has publicly denied any negotiations with the United States, calling reports of talks «fake news» and accusing Washington of manipulating markets.

In remarks aired on Iranian television on Jan. 12, 2026, he warned that U.S. forces would face catastrophic consequences if they confronted Iran. «Come, so you can see what catastrophe befalls American bases, ships and forces,» he said, adding that American troops would be «burned by the fire of Iran’s defenders.»

In the same remarks, broadcast and translated by MEMRI, he described the U.S. president as «delusional and arrogant,» and framed Iran’s ideology as a growing global movement.

More recently, he escalated further. He warned that «the blood of American soldiers is the personal responsibility of Trump,» and vowed Iran would «settle accounts with the Americans and Israelis,» adding that «Trump and Netanyahu crossed our red lines and will pay the price.»

He has also threatened retaliation against regional energy infrastructure, signaling a willingness to expand the conflict beyond direct military confrontation.

Not the Decision-Maker

«He’s considered relatively moderate in the current Iranian context, but he’s not the one calling the shots. He’s not the leader himself,» Danny Citrinowicz, Middle East, national security and intelligence expert, told Fox News Digital, adding that Ghalibaf may serve as a channel to Iran’s leadership, but not as the ultimate authority.

«If you want to speak to someone in Iran, he’s probably the point of contact,» he said. «But he’s not deciding anything. Even if he wants to do something, he has to get approval from the IRGC and the supreme leadership.»

Sabti said, «Some point to periods during Rouhani’s presidency when he appeared to align with Rouhani and describe him as somewhat moderate, but that is misleading.»

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A man lights a cigarette with fire from a burning picture of Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as Israelis rally in support of the nationwide protests happening in Iran, in Holon, Israel, Jan. 14, 2026. (Ammar Awad/Reuters)

A System That Makes Deals Harder

Analysts say the bigger issue is not Ghalibaf himself, but the system he operates within.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said: «Those who see the ascendance of someone like Ghalibaf, who is an IRGC veteran, as extending power outside his traditional civilian role have missed how personality, not profession, has been the driving force in Iranian politics for decades. Those who focus on IRGC backgrounds in the Supreme National Security Council may also overlook that recent secretaries — Shamkhani, Larijani and Ahmadian — all had IRGC backgrounds.»

«The system today is more radicalized and decentralized,» Citrinowicz agreed. «It’s not one person. It’s multiple actors you need to coordinate with, which makes it much harder to negotiate.»

«I’m not saying it’s impossible, because this is still the Middle East, but it will be very difficult to reach an agreement with them, let alone one that reflects the same demands the U.S. was making before the war. There is no way they are going to agree to that,» he added.

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A billboard depicting Iran’s supreme leaders is displayed above a highway in Tehran on March 10, 2026. (AFP/Via Getty Images)

Citrinowicz said the regime sees themselves as prevailing. «From Iran’s perspective, they are winning, not losing. They are using their strategic capabilities and effectively threatening a choke point in the global economy, namely the Strait of Hormuz. That only reinforces the radicalization taking place inside the regime. Under those conditions, they will be the ones making demands of Trump, not the other way around.»

Even if talks were to take place, he said, Ghalibaf would not be able to commit Iran without broader approval.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said Iran could have hit Washington, D.C., and other major U.S. cities with intermediate-range ballistic missiles through proxies in Venezuela if the administration had not intervened in both countries.

Speaking at the CERAWeek oil and energy conference in Houston on Wednesday, Burgum pushed back on the narrative that Iran and Venezuela do not represent an imminent threat to the U.S. and global supply chains. He said the threat was demonstrated by Iran’s attempt to strike the U.S. military base Diego Garcia in the central Indian Ocean, more than 2,000 miles from the Middle Eastern country.

«That means, you know, Venezuela was a hotbed of Iranian-funded terror groups, including Hamas. If there was an Iranian ballistic missile placed in Venezuela, it could not just reach Houston; it can reach Washington, D.C.,» said Burgum.

«So, again, the actions that the United States is taking to make the world safer is lowering the risk premium that I think was missing from the [oil and energy] market. Because, maybe, the market wasn’t recognizing the risk.»

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Burgum accused Iran, whose government he said is in shambles following intense U.S.-Israeli bombardment, of lying to the world about its missile capability.

«They said during negotiations last year, they told the international agencies, they said it right before the negotiations broke down, ‘Oh, don’t worry, we could only go 1,200 miles.’ And then they launched two missiles at Diego Garcia at 2,400 miles. That means they can hit London,» he explained.

The Islamic Republic of Iran escalated its conflict with the U.S. by launching two intermediate-range ballistic missiles Friday toward Diego Garcia, a key U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean. Targeting Diego Garcia, roughly 2,500 miles from Iran, suggests Tehran’s missile capabilities may exceed previously acknowledged limits.

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Interior Secretary Doug Burgum speaks after meeting with Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodriguez at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas on March 4, 2026. (Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images)

Houston, where Burgum was speaking, is roughly 2,200 miles from Venezuela, while the nation’s capital is just over 2,000 miles away, placing both cities within range of intermediate-range ballistic missiles fired from Venezuela. Other major U.S. cities within range include Miami, roughly 1,300 miles away; New York City, about 2,100 miles; and possibly Chicago, slightly more than 2,600 miles.

On Jan. 3, Trump launched a covert military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Burgum said that, because of the administration’s military action, Venezuela is no longer a serious missile threat to the U.S. and is now a potentially significant oil and energy partner.

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President Donald Trump with military members after the capture of Venezuela’s Maduro in January. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

The secretary said that during a recent trip to Venezuela with oil executives, interim President Delcy Rodríguez signaled the country has the capacity and is eager for U.S. investment in developing its oil and gas reserves.

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«The resources there are quite amazing,» he said. «And from that trip we did… we were able to bring home $100 million of gold, physically, the gold, to bring back for U.S. refiners for commercial and consumer purposes. So, the level of cooperation is going.»

El ministro de Economía y Finanzas, Felipe Chapman, advirtió que, aunque el fenómeno inflacionario y el encarecimiento del combustible responden a factores externos, el impacto sobre la economía panameña podría intensificarse si se prolonga el conflicto en Medio Oriente entre Irán, Estados Unidos e Israel, obligando al Estado a incrementar el gasto en subsidios para evitar un golpe directo al costo de vida.

Según explicó, se trata de una situación que exige prudencia fiscal, disciplina en el manejo del presupuesto y evitar decisiones impulsivas que comprometan la sostenibilidad económica.

Chapman fue claro en que el país no debe caer en medidas desesperadas ni en desviaciones de su hoja de ruta económica, insistiendo en que Panamá mantiene una estrategia definida para reducir el déficit y desacelerar el crecimiento de la deuda.

“No es una sorpresa que la deuda haya alcanzado ciertos niveles, forma parte de un plan estructurado”, sostuvo, al reiterar que la prioridad es reducir gradualmente su ritmo de crecimiento sin provocar un choque abrupto en la economía.

Para febrero de 2026 la deuda alcanzó cerca de $60,059 millones, lo que implicó un incremento de más de $8,100 millones en poco más de año y medio.

Este aumento, aunque menor en ritmo frente al registrado en el quinquenio anterior, evidencia que la presión fiscal sigue presente y que la estrategia actual se ha centrado más en reordenar el perfil de la deuda que en reducir su saldo de forma inmediata.

El titular del MEF explicó que el conflicto internacional ya está teniendo efectos concretos en el país, especialmente en el costo de los combustibles, lo que obliga al gobierno a aumentar el subsidio al transporte público, incluyendo MiBus y el Metro de Panamá, así como al tanque de gas de 25 libras, utilizado por la mayoría de los hogares.

“Si el Estado no absorbe ese impacto, el costo del pasaje subiría y también el precio del gas y la electricidad”, advirtió, dejando claro que el gasto público ya está aumentando para contener esos efectos.

En años recientes, el subsidio al transporte público ha representado más de $300 millones anuales, considerando los aportes al Metro de Panamá y al sistema MiBus, mientras que el subsidio al tanque de gas de 25 libras ha superado los $80 millones al año, dependiendo del comportamiento del precio internacional del petróleo.

Bajo el escenario actual, estas cifras podrían incrementarse de forma significativa si el conflicto geopolítico se extiende y presiona aún más los mercados energéticos.

Chapman enfatizó que el costo de estos subsidios es altamente variable y depende directamente del precio del petróleo, el cual puede cambiar de forma drástica en cuestión de días.

“No es lo mismo un barril a $80 que a $120 o $150”, explicó, subrayando que el Estado no puede proyectar con precisión el gasto total en este contexto. En ese sentido, insistió en que sería irresponsable fijar cifras estáticas cuando el entorno internacional es tan volátil.

En cuanto al crecimiento económico, el ministro señaló que antes del estallido del conflicto, proyecciones de entidades internacionales situaban el crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de Panamá alrededor del 5% para 2026, pero reconoció que ese escenario ahora debe ser revisado. Aunque mantiene una visión moderadamente optimista, admitió que el resultado final dependerá de la duración del conflicto y su impacto sobre la inflación y la economía global.

Sin embargo, Chapman también advirtió que un crecimiento económico demasiado acelerado podría ser contraproducente. “Si Panamá crece por encima del 6%, se podría generar inflación interna, y el país no cuenta con herramientas monetarias para contenerla”, explicó.

Por ello, planteó que el rango óptimo para la economía panameña se sitúa en un crecimiento superior al 5%, pero por debajo del 6%, lo que permitiría expandir la actividad sin presionar excesivamente los precios.

El ministro defendió que la estrategia del gobierno es mantener un equilibrio entre crecimiento y estabilidad, evitando medidas populistas como aumentar el déficit fiscal sin respaldo.

“No vamos a prometer cosas que no se pueden cumplir”, sostuvo, al referirse a propuestas de ampliar subsidios sin un sustento financiero claro. En ese sentido, reiteró que cualquier apoyo adicional deberá estar acompañado de recortes en otras áreas del gasto público, ya que los recursos del Estado son limitados.

Además, señaló que el gobierno ya ha logrado incrementar los ingresos en cerca de 14%, lo que forma parte del esfuerzo por mejorar la sostenibilidad fiscal. No obstante, insistió en que el crecimiento económico sigue siendo clave para mejorar la calidad de vida de la población, incluso si sus efectos no se perciben de forma inmediata.

“Si la economía no crece, la situación sería peor”, afirmó, al reconocer que muchos ciudadanos aún no sienten los beneficios de esa expansión.

En paralelo, Chapman descartó escenarios de desabastecimiento de combustible en Panamá, asegurando que en el continente americano existe suficiente oferta para cubrir la demanda. No obstante, reiteró que el verdadero riesgo no es la disponibilidad, sino el precio, que seguirá sujeto a la evolución del conflicto en Medio Oriente y a las tensiones en los mercados internacionales.

Finalmente, el ministro subrayó que el país debe mantenerse en una línea de cautela, disciplina y planificación, evitando decisiones improvisadas en un contexto global incierto. A su juicio, el reto no es solo enfrentar el impacto inmediato del alza en los combustibles, sino garantizar que las finanzas públicas se mantengan sostenibles en el mediano plazo, sin comprometer la estabilidad económica ni trasladar el costo de la crisis a los ciudadanos.

Las palabras de Felipe Chapman se dieron durante su intervención en el Foro Económico 2026, organizado por la Asociación Panameña de Ejecutivos de Empresa (APEDE), un espacio que reunió a autoridades, expertos y líderes empresariales para analizar el rumbo de la economía panameña en un contexto marcado por cambios geopolíticos, desafíos estructurales y nuevas oportunidades de inversión.

Desde este escenario, se planteó la necesidad de tomar decisiones estratégicas que permitan sostener el crecimiento en los próximos años.

La presidenta de APEDE, Giulia De Sanctis, subrayó que este tipo de foros son clave para elevar la calidad del debate económico en el país y generar propuestas concretas.

A su juicio, Panamá tiene el potencial de seguir creciendo, pero advirtió que ese crecimiento debe traducirse en bienestar real para la población, lo que requiere decisiones basadas en datos, instituciones sólidas y una visión de largo plazo que fortalezca la confianza y promueva la inversión.

En la misma línea, el presidente de la Comisión de Asuntos Económicos y Finanzas Nacionales de APEDE, Jorge Nicolau, explicó que el foro buscó abrir un espacio de análisis informado y diálogo técnico que permita identificar oportunidades reales para el país.

El enfoque, según indicó, está en orientar decisiones económicas sostenibles, tomando en cuenta un entorno global cada vez más dinámico y competitivo, donde Panamá debe redefinir su posicionamiento.

El evento también incorporó una agenda enfocada en temas clave como la inversión extranjera directa, las perspectivas económicas y el rol de Panamá en la región, incluyendo la participación de expertos nacionales e internacionales.