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Israeli hostages freed, Iran hit, ceasefire held — 2025 shattered the idea the US was exiting the Middle East

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For years, Washington has spoken about reducing its Middle East footprint, yet analysts told Fox News Digital that 2025 proved the opposite: American force — not retreat — reshaped the region.

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Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said the past year confirmed a long-standing strategic lesson. «2025 underscored what Middle East watchers have long known, and U.S. policymakers never seemed to want to admit: that strength is the currency of the realm and there is no substitute for U.S. leadership,» he said.

Israeli political analyst Nadav Eyal said the shift was unmistakable. «What we have seen in 2025 is an increased role of the United States, rather than a withdrawal,» Eyal said. «It delivered a hostage deal and a ceasefire in Gaza. It brought a certain level of stability in Syria. We see increased cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.»

«The idea that the U.S. is out of the Middle East is just out the window,» he added.

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WHITE HOUSE TURNS TO EXPANDING ABRAHAM ACCORDS AFTER ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASEFIRE

U.S. President Donald Trump poses with the signed agreement at a world leaders’ summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a U.S.-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett/Pool (Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters )

Gaza: The ceasefire and the hostages

During 2025, the Trump administration brokered a ceasefire that ended the two-year war in Gaza and returned all Israeli hostages except for the body of Ran Gvili, which still remains in Hamas’s hands. The deal was initially met with deep skepticism inside Israel. 

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President Trump traveled to both Israel — where he addressed the Knesset and Cairo to finalize the agreement, coordinating with Arab leaders and mediators in a complex process that included an exchange of Palestinian terrorists held in Israeli prisons for hostages.

«There is absolutely no doubt that without President Trump’s intervention, this could have lasted much longer, or maybe not have ended at all, or ended in tragedy,» Eyal said, adding that the administration fundamentally changed what had been considered possible.

«He expanded the realm of possibilities,» Eyal said. «If someone had told us six months earlier that this would be the framework of the deal, and that all the living hostages would be back home within 72 hours, we would have said it’s a great idea, but Hamas would never agree.»

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Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meet with former hostages

Israeli hostages released in the Trump-brokered ceasefire deal met with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. (The Hostages and Missing Families Forum)

According to Eyal, the breakthrough came from Israeli military pressure combined with U.S. insistence and regional coordination. «The military pressure put by Israel, enabled by the White House, together with the White House’s insistence and the enlistment of Qatar and Turkey, is what made the breakthrough,» he said.

Misztal also argued that the outcome was not the result of diplomacy alone. «The relative calm that the region is now enjoying, after two years of war, is not the result of diplomacy, which failed on its own to stop Iran’s nuclear advance or convince Hamas to return Israeli hostages,» Misztal said. «It is the result of Israeli and U.S. willingness to use force, and do so together in pursuit of common objectives.»

«Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer, coupled with the Israeli strike in Doha, unlocked the path to peace,» he added.

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The ceasefire remains fragile but intact, with the U.S. now deeply involved in shaping the postwar phase in Gaza.

US MILITARY TO OVERSEE NEXT PHASE OF PEACE DEAL FROM COORDINATION BASE IN ISRAEL

Trump meets with freed Hamas hostages

President Donald Trump met with seven hostages freed from Hamas captivity. 3/7/25 (Photo provided by Hostages Families Forum)

Regional shockwaves

On Dec. 8 last year, after Israel defeated Hezbollah, the Assad regime in Syria collapsed, signaling a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power.

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That momentum carried into 2025. Operation Rising Lion known as the 12-day war, underscored Israel’s air superiority, with Israeli aircraft striking Iranian military infrastructure and eliminating senior IRGC commanders.

The campaign also highlighted the depth of U.S.-Israel coordination, culminating in a U.S. strike that targeted Iran’s nuclear program and curtailed Tehran’s ability to support its proxies.

Smokes raises from a building of the Soroka hospital complex after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran in Be'er Sheva, Israel, Thursday, June 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Smokes raises from a building of the Soroka hospital complex after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran in Be’er Sheva, Israel, Thursday, June 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa) (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Eyal said Iran now faces a period of profound uncertainty. «Iran will, without doubt, try to rebuild its influence after its proxy system was shattered,» he said. «It was defeated in war with Israel and lost most of its nuclear program.»

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Two questions now dominate. «Can Iran rebuild its alliances, its prestige and its sources of power, like the nuclear program or air defenses, and stabilize itself again as a regional power?» Eyal asked. «The deeper question,» he added, «is what happens to the regime.»

He described Iran as increasingly unstable, with a devastated economy and growing public discontent. «It seems like almost everything is ripe for a substantial change in Iran,» he said. «Whether the Islamic Republic can survive without significant reform, or whether there will be a coup or counterrevolution, will take us well into 2026.»

FIVE POSSIBLE FUTURES FOR MIDDLE EAST FROM RENAISSANCE TO ROCKETS

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The Fordo nuclear site in Iran.

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows damage at the Fordow enrichment facility in Iran after U.S. strikes, Sunday, June 22, 2025.  (Maxar Technologies via AP)

«The sands of the Middle East are always shifting»: What to expect in 2026

Eyal said the past year forced a reckoning about Hamas’ future. «In 2025, Israelis, and to a certain extent countries in the Middle East, woke up from a fantasy that Hamas would cease to exist completely as a functioning body,» he said.

«Everybody understands there will be some sort of presence of Hamas, and unfortunately, they will hold some sort of armed power,» Eyal added. «The question is, to what level can you reduce it?»

WALTZ HAILS ‘NIGHT-AND-DAY’ MIDDLE EAST SHIFT AS TRUMP’S GAZA PLAN RESHAPES REGION

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Palestinians continue their daily lives under harsh conditions amid the rubble of destroyed buildings in the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza following the enforcement of a ceasefire agreement, on February 10, 2025. (Mahmoud ssa/Anadolu via Getty Images)

At the same time, he stressed the scale of Hamas’ losses. «In 2025 they suffered tremendous defeats and were wiped out as a functioning military body,» Eyal said. «This is the year in which it happened.»

«Even after losing half of Gaza, with Gaza devastated, and the hostages returned, they are still functioning as a military organization,» he added. «That means they are incredibly resistant or flexible.»

Misztal warned that the calm will not hold without sustained U.S. engagement. «The sands of the Middle East are always shifting,» he said. «Today’s calm will not last without consistent effort applied to uphold it.»

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hamas fighters in gaza on feb. 8, 2025

Hamas terrorists stand in formation as Palestinians gather on a street to watch the handover of three Israeli hostages to a Red Cross team in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, on Feb. 8, 2025.  (Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

He warned that 2026 could see renewed pressure from multiple fronts. «Adversaries will seek to reassert themselves and find new advantages,» Misztal said. «Iran will test the boundaries of U.S. and Israeli patience and ISIS or other Sunni extremists may seek a spectacular attack to mark their comeback.»

«These will all be tests for the U.S. appetite to continue applying the ‘peace through strength’ approach,» Misztal said. «If Washington takes its eyes off the region, the progress of the last year might quickly be lost.»

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China aiding Iran missile program amid US-Israeli strikes, reports say

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Communist China is reportedly providing military assistance to the embattled Iranian regime, according to a leading U.S. military think tank and other reporting. 

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The Institute for the Study of War stated that China is providing military assistance to the Iranian regime’s missile program, basing its research on recent reporting.

According to the Institute, «China is helping Iran reconstitute the Iranian missile program amid US-Israeli efforts to degrade it.»

A TIMELINE OF TRUMP’S ESCALATING DEADLINES ON IRAN AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

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According to the Institute for the Study of War, «Western media reported that China has sent multiple shipments of missile fuel precursor to Iran since the start of the war.»

The institute said that, «China’s efforts to help Iran reconstitute could undermine the combined force efforts to degrade or destroy the supporting elements of the ballistic missile program.»

Gordon Chang, an expert on China, told Fox News Digital that «China is an enemy combatant and is endangering our troops.»

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A Ghadr-H missile, center, a Sejjil missile and a portrait of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are on display for the annual Defense Week, marking the 37th anniversary of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, at Baharestan Sq. in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Sept. 24, 2017. (AP)

The Daily Telegraph recently reported that, «Ships believed to be carrying Chinese chemicals for missile fuel have arrived in Iran, raising questions about Beijing’s support for the regime. Four sanctioned Iran-flagged vessels have docked at Iranian ports since the war broke out.»

The report also claimed that, «Sanctioned vessels carrying enough chemicals to produce hundreds of projectiles travel from Chinese to Iranian ports.»

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Chang urged the U.S. to seize the Chinese vessels that are reportedly transporting sodium perchlorate, the chemical material required for Iran’s missile fuel systems. He added that «It is a question of America’s will to impose costs on China.»

TRUMP CALLS RESCUE OF DOWNED AIR FORCE PILOT AN ‘EASTER MIRACLE’

China Russia Oil

Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) meets with the late Supreme Leader of Iran Sayyed Ali Khamenei (R) in Tehran, Iran on January 23, 2016. (Pool / Supreme Leader Press Office/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

Chang concluded by noting that the «President of the U.S. has many points of leverage. If you look at the overall relationship between China and the U.S., the U.S. has more cards to play.» He cited the U.S.-China trade relationship because China is an export-driven country and depends on the vital American consumer market.

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The Islamic Republic’s military forces have reportedly been feverishly working to rebuild their missile apparatus after punishing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since the start of the war on Feb. 28.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, «Iran has been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by the combined force, in some cases returning them to operation hours after strikes, according to recent U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran may be reestablishing access to their launchers hours after strikes, but these launchers are components of a larger system that has been degraded. Reported fear and lack of coordination across some Iranian forces mean that medium-range missile systems are still functioning sub-optimally.»

Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted as seen from Tel Aviv

Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted as seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, June 15, 2025. (REUTERS/Tomer Neuberg)

Chinese companies have been sanctioned as part of busting U.S. restrictions on providing military aid to Iran’s regime. In 2023, the U.S. Treasury Department said it had «designated one individual and six entities in a sanctions’ evasion network that has facilitated Iran’s procurement of electronic components for its destabilizing military programs, including those used in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Particularly, this action targets the head of U.S.-designated Iran’s Pardazan System Namad Arman (PASNA), and the entity’s Iran-, Malaysia-, Hong Kong, and PRC-based front companies[People’s Republic of China] and suppliers that have enabled PASNA’s procurement of goods and technology.»

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A State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital that, «China portrays itself as a neutral actor in the conflict with Iran, but it has long ignored the Iranian regime’s nuclear ambitions and destabilizing activities while providing the regime an economic lifeline and other support. The United States has sanctioned China- and Hong Kong-based entities and individuals for supporting Iran’s ballistic missile and UAV proliferation activities.  We will continue to act to ensure China does not contribute to the Iranian regime’s destabilizing activities.»

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Just last month, a report by the Atlantic Council noted «China has supplied Iran with drones, anti-ship cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and the components thereof, to aid in its aerial and maritime defense capabilities. In other instances, China directly supplies Iran with Western or Chinese technology components that are found in Iranian drones used against US military installations and economic interests in the Gulf, as well as on Russia’s battlefield in Ukraine.»

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Fox News Digital press queries to China’s Embassy in Washington, D.C., were not immediately returned.



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Trump adversary running for Senate borrows his filibuster playbook 

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One of President Donald Trump’s top Democratic foes running for the Senate is taking a page from his and conservatives’ playbook in their pitch to reform the filibuster.

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Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills, who is running to unseat longtime Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, released her policy platform in recent days. Among several pitches to voters is a call to reform the filibuster. 

Mills, if elected, said in the 19-page document that she would require «Senators to remain on the Senate floor and actually speak, rather than simply threatening a filibuster to delay action.»

The filibuster has become a flashpoint in the Senate, particularly for Republicans, given that its current 60-vote threshold requires legislation to be bipartisan in nature. And Mills’ position, which has been previously supported by Democrats, is one Trump and some in the GOP are pushing for to pass a massive election integrity bill.

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GRAHAM EYES ‘DOWN PAYMENT’ ON TRUMP-BACKED SAVE ACT WITHOUT DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT

Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills, who is running to unseat longtime Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, released her policy platform in recent days.  (Getty Images)

Her desire to change the filibuster echoes one made by Trump and conservatives, both in Congress and online, that have demanded Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., launch a talking filibuster to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act.

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«Washington is broken, and Maine people are paying the price,» Mills said in a statement introducing the platform. «Donald Trump and Washington Republicans are undermining our fundamental rights and driving up costs, all while Congress fails to solve the big problems facing Maine people. Enough is enough. Maine people deserve better than what D.C. is giving them.»

Mills and Trump have an adversarial relationship that reached a chaotic crescendo in 2025 when, during a meeting of governors at the White House, she declared, «We’ll see you in court,» over the president’s executive order to deny federal funding to states that allowed transgender athletes to participate in sports.

THUNE ACCUSES CRITICS OF ‘CREATING FALSE EXPECTATIONS’ AMID BACKLASH OVER STALLED SAVE AMERICA ACT

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President Donald Trump shrugging during a public appearance.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills and President Donald Trump have an adversarial relationship that reached a chaotic crescendo in 2025.  (Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP’s main campaign arm, warned that Mills’ desired change to the filibuster was a dog whistle for Democrats’ plan to slow-walk Trump’s agenda.

«Janet Mills is saying the quiet part out loud: If she goes to Washington, she will use every tool at her disposal to push her radical anti-Trump agenda on Americans,» NRSC spokesperson Samantha Cantrell told Fox News Digital.

Trump has asked Republicans to go a step further and nuke the filibuster altogether — an unlikely scenario in the Senate, given the lack of support to do away with the guardrail in its current form.

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MAINE SENATE CANDIDATE CITES COMBAT TRAUMA WHEN CONFRONTED ON ‘TERRIBLE’ POSTS ABOUT SEXUAL ASSAULT

Senate candidate Graham Platner and Gov. Janet Mills standing together

Senate candidate Graham Platner of Maine, left, and two-term Gov. Janet Mills are facing off in the state’s Democratic Senate primary. (Sophie Park/Getty Images; Scott Eisen/Getty Images)

A talking filibuster, as Mills suggested, would require senators to debate a bill rather than falling back on the typical 60-vote threshold.

The Senate is currently doing a version of the talking filibuster in the GOP’s bid to shine a light on Senate Democrats’ refusal to support the SAVE America Act. But it won’t lead to the legislation passing because the GOP isn’t unified to block Democratic amendments that could drastically alter the bill.

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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., who handpicked Mills to run in Maine against Collins, has dubbed the legislation «Jim Crow 2.0» and rallied his caucus behind defeating the measure.

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Before Mills has a chance to square off against Collins, she’ll first have to survive a tough primary battle against insurgent candidate Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who has the backing of Schumer’s left flank.

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Fox News Digital reached out for comment from Mills, Platner and Collins, but did not hear back by publication.

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Los expertos en restauración desaconsejan el traslado del ‘Guernica’: “No está preparado para viajar ni debería hacerlo si quiere conservarse bien”

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Los expertos en restauración desaconsejan rotundamente el traslado del Guernica. (Europa Press)

Corre estos días por el Museo Reina Sofía una gran inquietud que llega hasta el País Vasco. Desde que el lehendakari Imanol Pradales alzase la voz para pedir el traslado del Guernica, el icónico cuadro de Pablo Picasso, se han sucedido las declaraciones cruzadas y demás polémicas. Pero faltaba por conocer la opinión de quien realmente conoce mejor el cuadro: los restauradores. En muchas ocasiones, los considerados como “doctores” del arte han salido al paso para proteger la integridad de la obra por encima de cualquier interés político.

“Por un lado restauramos aquello que está deteriorado u oscurecido por el tiempo, lo volvemos a un estado lo más cercano posible al original. Pero también cuidamos de la obra en todos esos transportes”, comienza explicando María Antonia López de Asiaín, restauradora del Museo Nacional del Prado, quien habla con Infobae tras desatarse la polémica en torno al cuadro de Picasso. “El Guernica no está preparado para viajar. Ni debería viajar si quiere conservarse bien, porque es una obra muy grande, con mucho deterioro por el tiempo. Cuando se trajo del MoMA enrollado, tenía una serie de fisuras verticales, un craquelado que está fijo, que está estable, pero que no te admite el traslado”, zanja de primeras la experta, que coincide de pleno con el informe elaborado desde el propio Museo Reina Sofía, que desaconseja rotundamente el traslado del cuadro.

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Pero, ¿por qué entraña tanto riesgo este movimiento que sugieren desde el País Vasco para celebrar el 90º aniversario del bombardeo de Guernica?

Imagen del informe facilitado por el Museo Reina Sofía, en el que se detalla el desgaste y las alteraciones del Guernica
Imagen del informe facilitado por el Museo Reina Sofía, en el que se detalla el desgaste y las alteraciones del Guernica

“Los restauradores revisamos la obra y emitimos un informe de conservación. Y decimos: esta obra sí puede viajar o esta obra no puede viajar. Pero si las condiciones de conservación de la obra sí se pueden apañar o hacer una buena restauración, el cuadro está estable y no corre riesgo, lo aprobamos. En el caso del Guernica, es que no se debe apañar. No es que no se pueda, es que no se debe”, recalca la restauradora del Prado, en el cual estuvo el Guernica durante más de 11 años antes de su traslado definitivo al Reina Sofía.

Un traslado que, a pesar de la escasa distancia, ya tenía gran dificultad. “En aquel momento, la empresa de transportes hizo como un camión, como que el suelo entre las ruedas bajaba… Porque no dan la altura, los camiones, punto. De obra de arte tiene tres metros de altura. Y este cuadro no cabe. En la anterior ocasión que se pidió, diseñaron hasta un viaje en carreteras que tuviera los puentes de suficiente altura para poder llevarlo, porque claro, no es una medida estándar de camión”.

El deterioro del Guernica y las razones para su no traslado

El informe facilitado por el Museo Reina Sofía explica con lujo de detalles por qué se niega al traslado. “Los estudios con luz visible han hecho posible apreciar las diferentes alteraciones que ha sufrido la obra. Respecto al soporte, vemos que el perímetro de la tela presenta un gran número de alteraciones causadas por los múltiples clavados y desclavados del bastidor a los que el lienzo fue sometido a lo largo de su historia. El bastidor original carecía de cuñas intencionalmente, por lo que exigía aplicar fuertes tensiones durante el montaje, tensiones acentuadas por el hecho de ser un lienzo de grandes proporciones”, detalla el estudio publicado hace tan solo unas semanas, que también habla de “alteraciones tales como grietas, craquelados y microfisuras atribuidas mayoritariamente a las tensiones provocadas por los numerosos enrollados, traslados y manipulaciones durante sus años de itinerancia”.

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El lehendakari Imanol Pradales ha afirmado que la cesión de el ‘Guernica’ de Picasso a Euskadi de forma temporal podría ser «una buena forma de avanzar en reparación». (PNV)

El deterioro y el inmenso tamaño del Guernica (776,6 cm × 349,3 cm) son dos de los aspectos en los que López de Asiaín coincide con el Reina Sofía. “Una obra, en lienzo de tan gran tamaño, cuando la mueves, hace como vela, como un barco. El Guernica está muy deteriorado porque es de gran tamaño y precisamente se puede proteger peor porque es de gran tamaño. Entonces, está muy deteriorado… El enrollado causa una serie de fisuras verticales o de craquelados”, confirma la restauradora, quien por otro lado no es ajena a los intereses políticos que hay detrás de este hipotético movimiento. “Es la machada de decir: ‘Yo me traje el Guernica y el Guernica es nuestro’. Es un poco eso, la cuestión política”.

A pesar de todo, la restauradora defiende vías alternativas al traslado del Guernica para poder celebrar ese aniversario sin poner en riesgo el cuadro. “Hay que diferenciar la obra del mensaje. Es decir, esa obra de arte tiene valor para nosotros, para el Reina Sofía, para los restauradores y para los historiadores del arte. Y para el País Vasco la tiene como mensaje. Entonces, realmente piensas, ¿es lo mismo tener la obra de arte en realidad, que puede sufrir, que puede tener un detrimento? Porque para nosotros es un símbolo de nuestra Guerra Civil, de España, de todo, que no tenemos ningún derecho a deteriorar. No te digo que viaje un póster, pero se pueden hacer realidades 3D, cosas diferentes, muy buenas y con el mismo mensaje», defiende la experta.

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