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As 2025 ends, tensions between China and Taiwan are higher — and more overt — than at any point in recent years, fueled by expanded U.S. military support for Taipei, increasingly bold warnings from regional allies, and Chinese military drills that look less like symbolism and more like rehearsal.

Beijing has spent the year steadily increasing pressure on Taiwan through large-scale military exercises, air and naval incursions, and pointed political messaging, while Washington and its allies have responded with sharper deterrence signals that China now openly labels as interference.

The result is a more volatile status quo — one where the risk of miscalculation has grown, even as most analysts stop short of predicting an imminent Chinese invasion.

A year of escalating pressure

China capped off 2025 with what it described as its largest Taiwan-focused military exercises to date, launching expansive drills in December that included live-fire elements and simulated island encirclement operations.

The exercises followed a familiar pattern seen throughout the year: People’s Liberation Army aircraft and ships operating closer to Taiwan with greater frequency, reinforcing Beijing’s claim of sovereignty while testing Taipei’s response capacity.

Unlike earlier shows of force, the late-year drills were widely interpreted as practice for coercive scenarios short of outright war — particularly a blockade or quarantine designed to strangle Taiwan economically and politically without triggering immediate global conflict.

Chinese officials explicitly tied the escalation to Washington’s actions, pointing to a massive U.S. arms package approved in December — valued at roughly $11 billion and described as one of the largest such sales to Taiwan in years — as proof of what Beijing calls «foreign interference.»

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Chinese officials have been unusually blunt in their response.

«Any external forces that attempt to intervene in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China’s internal affairs will surely smash their heads bloody against the iron walls of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,» China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a Monday statement. 

The arms package continued the U.S. push to strengthen Taiwan’s asymmetric defenses, including missiles, drones and systems designed to complicate a Chinese assault rather than match Beijing weapon-for-weapon.

Taipei welcomed the support but remained cautious in its public response, emphasizing restraint while warning that Chinese military pressure has become routine rather than exceptional.

Japan steps into the frame

One of the most consequential shifts in 2025 came not from Washington or Taipei, Taiwan, but from Tokyo.

In November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made unusually direct remarks linking a potential Taiwan contingency to Japan’s own security, suggesting that an attack on Taiwan could trigger collective self-defense considerations under Japanese law.

China shows off DF-5C intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles are showcased at a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing. (China Daily via Reuters)

The comments marked one of the clearest acknowledgments yet from a sitting Japanese leader that a Taiwan conflict would not remain a bilateral issue between Beijing and Taipei.

China reacted angrily, accusing Japan of abandoning its post-war restraint and aligning itself with U.S. efforts to contain Beijing. The rhetoric underscored a growing Chinese concern: that any move on Taiwan would draw in a widening coalition of U.S. allies.

That concern has also been reinforced by U.S. treaty commitments to the Philippines, where Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed repeatedly in the South China Sea throughout the year, raising fears of a multifront crisis.

Washington’s deterrence gamble

For the United States, 2025 was defined by a balancing act — reinforcing Taiwan without triggering the very conflict Washington seeks to prevent.

In addition to the December arms package, U.S. officials repeatedly reaffirmed that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are vital U.S. interests, while avoiding any explicit shift away from long-standing strategic ambiguity.

The Pentagon’s annual report on China, released late in 2025, reiterated that U.S. defense assessments see the Chinese military developing capabilities that could enable it to fight and win a war over Taiwan by 2027 — a benchmark that has increasingly shaped U.S. and allied planning.

U.S. officials, however, have also cautioned that military readiness does not equal intent, warning against treating exercises or procurement timelines as a countdown clock to war.

Is an invasion coming?

The question hanging over the region — and Washington — is whether China is moving closer to launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

The evidence cuts both ways.

On one hand, the scale and sophistication of Chinese military activity around Taiwan has grown noticeably, with drills emphasizing joint operations, rapid mobilization and isolation of the island. Beijing’s rhetoric has also hardened, portraying reunification as increasingly urgent and framing U.S. involvement as an existential threat.

On the other hand, an amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be among the most complex military operations in modern history, carrying enormous political, economic and military risks for China — whose armed forces have not fought a major war since its 1979 invasion of Vietnam.

China’s type 055 guided-missile destroyer Nanchang sails during a naval exercise.  (Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty Images)

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Many defense analysts argue that Beijing has strong incentives to continue applying pressure through gray-zone tactics — cyber operations, economic coercion, legal warfare and military intimidation — rather than crossing the threshold into open war.

The December drills reinforced that view, highlighting blockade-style scenarios that could test Taiwan and its partners without immediately triggering a shooting war.

The road ahead

As 2026 approaches, the Taiwan Strait remains a flashpoint where deterrence and coercion are colliding more frequently and more visibly.

The most widely held assessment among U.S. and regional officials is that while the risk of conflict is rising — particularly as China approaches its 2027 military readiness goals — an invasion is not yet the most likely near-term outcome.

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Instead, the danger lies in sustained pressure, miscalculation and crisis escalation, especially as more actors — from Japan to the Philippines — become directly implicated in the Taiwan equation.

For now, 2025 ends with no shots fired across the Taiwan Strait — but with fewer illusions about how close the region may be to its most serious test in decades.

Los investigadores suizos están investigando las causas del incendio en un bar de una estación de esquí alpina que dejó dejó 40 personas muertas y 115 heridas, la mayoría de ellas graves, según confirmó la policía, durante la celebración de Año Nuevo.

La mayoría de las lesiones, muchas de ellas graves, se produjeron cuando el fuego arrasó el abarrotado bar menos de dos horas después de la medianoche del jueves en el suroeste de Suiza.

La estación de Crans-Montana es conocida por ser un destino internacional de esquí y golf. Durante la noche, su abarrotado bar Le Constellation pasó de ser un lugar de juerga a convertirse en el escenario de lo que podría ser una de las peores tragedias de Suiza.

Crans-Montana se encuentra a menos de 5 kilómetros de Sierre, Suiza, donde 28 personas, entre ellas muchos niños, murieron cuando un autobús procedente de Bélgica se estrelló dentro de un túnel suizo en 2012.

Esto es lo que sabemos sobre el mortal incendio:

El incendio se produjo alrededor de la 1:30 de la madrugada del jueves en el interior del bar Le Constellation, en plena celebración navideña.

Axel Clavier, un joven de 16 años de París, sobrevivió al incendio utilizando una mesa para empujar una ventana de plexiglás fuera de su marco, lo que le permitió escapar del “caos total” que se había formado dentro del bar. Uno de sus amigos murió y “dos o tres desaparecieron”, declaró a The Associated Press.

Dijo que no había visto cómo se iniciaba el incendio, pero que sí vio llegar a las camareras con botellas de champán con bengalas, según contó.

Dos mujeres dijeron a la cadena francesa BFMTV que estaban dentro cuando vieron a un camarero levantar a una camarera sobre sus hombros mientras ella sostenía una vela encendida en una botella. Las llamas se propagaron y derrumbaron el techo de madera, dijeron a la cadena.

La gente intentó escapar frenéticamente del club nocturno del sótano por una estrecha escalera y a través de una puerta estrecha, lo que provocó una avalancha humana, dijo una de las mujeres.

Un joven que se encontraba en el lugar dijo que la gente rompió las ventanas para escapar del fuego, algunos con heridas graves, informó BFMTV. Dijo que vio a unas 20 personas luchando por salir del humo y las llamas, y comparó lo sucedido con una película de terror.

Los heridos eran tan numerosos que la unidad de cuidados intensivos y el quirófano del hospital regional se llenaron rápidamente, dijo Mathias Reynard, jefe del gobierno regional del cantón de Valais.

Aunque las autoridades dijeron el jueves que era demasiado pronto para determinar la causa del incendio, los investigadores ya han descartado que pudiera tratarse de un ataque.

Los expertos aún no han podido entrar en los escombros, según declaró Beatrice Pilloud, fiscal general del cantón de Valais, en una rueda de prensa.

Se está trabajando para identificar a las víctimas e informar a sus familias.

Se teme que haya “varias decenas de personas” fallecidas, añadió Gisler.

Las autoridades suizas calificaron el incendio como un “embrasement généralisé”, un término francés utilizado por los bomberos para describir cómo un incendio puede provocar la liberación de gases combustibles que luego pueden inflamarse violentamente y causar lo que los bomberos denominan una combustión instantánea o un retorno de llama.

Las víctimas sufrieron quemaduras graves e inhalación de humo. Algunas fueron trasladadas en avión a hospitales especializados de todo el país.

Las autoridades instaron a la población a actuar con precaución en los próximos días para evitar cualquier accidente que pudiera requerir los ya desbordados recursos médicos.

Con pistas de esquí de gran altitud que se elevan a unos 3.000 metros en el corazón de los picos nevados y los bosques de pinos de la región de Valais, Crans-Montana es una de las mejores sedes del circuito de la Copa del Mundo.

La estación acogerá a los mejores esquiadores de descenso masculino y femenino, entre ellos Lindsey Vonn, para sus últimas pruebas antes de los Juegos Olímpicos de Milán-Cortina en febrero.

El club de golf Crans-sur-Sierre, situado en la misma calle que el bar, acoge cada agosto el European Masters en un pintoresco campo.

(Con información de AP)