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Reporter’s Notebook: House math turns tricky as Greene resignation tightens GOP grip on power
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It’s about the math.
And the math in the House of Representatives got much more interesting Friday night when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., announced she would resign in January.
The current breakdown in the House is 219-213 in favor of Republicans with three vacancies: Former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., retired. The late Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Texas, died. Former Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., resigned late last week after voters elected her governor of New Jersey. The House finally swore in Rep. Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz., six weeks after she prevailed in her special election in September to succeed her late father. Late Rep. Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., died earlier this year.
The six-seat margin means that the GOP can only lose two votes on the floor and still pass a bill without help from the Democrats.
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Chair of the Subcommittee on Delivering On Government Efficiency (DOGE) Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene presides over a hearing of the House Oversight Subcommittee in the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Feb. 26, 2025. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
But the math in the coming weeks and months quickly gets dicey for the GOP.
Greene does not step aside until Jan. 5. So let’s run through the numbers and permutations which could evolve over the next few months.
There’s a special election in Tennessee to succeed former House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green on Dec. 2. President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points last fall. Green bested his opponent – former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, a Democrat, by 21 points. So Republicans are expected to hold this seat.
Speaker Mike Johnson and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images; Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
But there is something important to know about special elections: they’re special. They sometimes produce weird results because the usual voting electorate doesn’t show up. Plus, surges by one party or the other in a special election held in either a deeply blue or ruby red district sometimes signals a boost for the party. Strong performances or even upsets sometimes portend what’s ahead in the next election. They also signal a referendum on the President.
For instance, in 2017, Democrats were competitive in four GOP seats of House members who departed to join the Trump administration. But even though the Democrats ran well, they still failed to flip any of those seats. Former Rep. Mike Pompeo, R-Kan., stepped down to become CIA Director. Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kan., then won that seat by a mere six points. Current Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont., resigned to become Interior Secretary. Former Rep. and current Gov. Greg Gianforte, R-Mont., won – but only by five points and less than 50 percent of the vote. Former Rep. Tom Price, R-Ga., resigned to become Health and Human Services Secretary. Former Rep. Karen Handel, R-Ga., won by only three points over current Sen. Jon Ossoff, R-Ga. Former Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., left his House seat to become Budget Director and later White House Chief of Staff. Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., succeeded Mulvaney. But Norman won by only three percentage points.
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: GOP GETS BOOST IN BID TO FLIP SWING DISTRICT AFTER DEMOCRAT BOWS OUT
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., center, joined by, from left, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., talks with reporters. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)
Even though Democrats failed to flip any of those seats, they made the GOP sweat and put up strong showings. Some analysts viewed the Democrats’ performances in those contests as a sign of things to come in the 2018 midterms and President Trump’s weakness.
Democrats then reclaimed control of the House in the 2018 midterms and won 40 seats.
Republican Matt Van Epps faces Democrat Aftyn Behn next week in the special election to succeed Green in Tennessee. Democrats are pouring money into that contest hoping they can flip the seat.
If they do, the GOP majority dwindles to 219-214. But if Van Epps prevails, the GOP gets some space with a 220-213 majority.
But that only lasts until Greene steps down in January. So the majority would dwindle to 219-213.
Remember that you cannot appoint someone to the House. So you have to wait for special elections. The Georgia special election to succeed Greene wouldn’t happen until March.
But there’s lots to happen before then.
There is a special election runoff to replace Democrat Sylvester Turner on Jan. 31. Democrats will hold that seat with two of their own in the runoff. But government funding expires on Jan. 30. One wonders if House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., might hold off swearing-in a prospective Democratic successor to Turner if the House is out for similar reasons as to why the Speaker refrained from swearing-in Adelita Grijalva.
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Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn speaks to members of the audience before the start of a Democratic Party forum for candidates running for the 7th Congressional District special election at the Fairview Recreation Center in Fairview on Sept. 7, 2025. (Alan Poizner-For The Tennessean/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
So, presuming Van Epps wins, and with Greene gone and either Democrats Amanda Edwards or Christian Menefee winning the Turner seat in Texas, the GOP majority dips to 219-214. It’s a margin of five. But again, Republicans can only lose two votes and not need help from the other side.
Now we’re back to a special election in March for Greene’s seat. Again, Democrats will try to make that competitive. But for the sake of argument, let’s say the GOP wins. The Republican majority climbs to 220-214.
So at this stage, we are down to only one vacancy in the House – presuming no one else quits or, God forbid, dies. The special election to succeed Sherrill will come in April. Again, Democrats should hold that seat. But special elections are just that: special. Republicans will certainly try to flip that seat. But if Democrats hold on and the House is at full strength, the GOP majority will sit at 220-215.
This scenario presumes both parties win everything they’re supposed to win.
DEMOCRATS SEE MANDATE AFTER 2025 WINS — REPUBLICANS SAY IT’S A MIRAGE
Sunrise light hits the U.S. Capitol dome on Jan. 2, 2025, as the 119th Congress is set to begin Friday. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
But what happens if Democrats were to flip the open seats in Tennessee and Georgia and win the special elections in Texas and New Jersey? In that scenario, you’re looking at a 218-217 Republican majority next spring.
Again, we’re positing that no one dies or retires mid-term.
The House is not a very pleasant place to be right now. That’s why some lawmakers may look for the exits early.
And, there’s an old saying that «death will come. And it’s always out of season.»
Sylvester Turner was a freshman Democrat and had been a Member of the House for barely two months. He attended President Trump’s State of the Union speech in early March. Turner died overnight.
Grijalva had suffered from cancer for years. He died eight days after Turner. By spring, late Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., died from cancer – just months after becoming the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee.
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The late Rep. Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., died last year after bouts with various health issues. Rep. LaMonica McIver, D-N.J., succeeded him in the fall.
The Senate majority has flipped a couple of times in the middle of Congress. The House majority has never switched in the middle of Congress. That may not be the case now. But the tenuous hold on power for the GOP has been the story of the House since the 2022 midterms. It’s one of the tightest majorities in history. And it wouldn’t take much to shift power.
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Sorpresiva decisión de Trump
Juan Orlando Hernández, ex presidente de Honduras, en2015. Foto EFE
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Enfermedad verde, el extraño padecimiento que afectaba a jóvenes vírgenes en el siglo XVII
En la Londres del siglo XVII, decenas de jóvenes mujeres morían cada año por la llamada “enfermedad verde”, un diagnóstico desaparecido hoy de la medicina.
El fenómeno se registró principalmente entre mujeres adolescentes, alrededor de los años 1650. La afección preocupó tanto a médicos, familias y autoridades, que intentaron explicar sus causas y buscar posibles tratamientos. El término marcó la historia médica durante siglos, aunque para la actualidad su significado resulta confuso.
De acuerdo con National Institutes of Health, las primeras descripciones médicas de la enfermedad destacaron varios síntomas. Las jóvenes afectadas presentaban rostros pálidos, debilidad extrema, dificultad para alimentarse, hinchazón de tobillos y una pronunciada apatía.
Según detalló JSTOR Daily, numerosos médicos del período asociaron la enfermedad exclusivamente con mujeres jóvenes que no habían contraído matrimonio. Así, surgió la expresión popular “enfermedad de las vírgenes”, reforzando la idea de que un cierto estado civil guardaba relación directa con la salud.
John Graunt, considerado precursor de la estadística en Inglaterra, analizó el fenómeno en la capital británica. En sus informes, empleó eufemismos para evitar detalles explícitos sobre una supuesta causa sexual, pues en la época resultaba vergonzoso mencionarla.
En ese sentido, Graunt anotó en su tabla de mortalidad “Stopping of the Stomach”, pero aclaró que, en verdad, hacía referencia a la enfermedad verde.
Durante siglos, la enfermedad también ocupó un lugar notable en la cultura popular. Shakespeare empleó el término en Romeo y Julieta y en Henry IV, Parte 2 para ridiculizar o señalar debilidades. La referencia a una apariencia pálida y enfermiza reforzó la idea de un vínculo entre la salud física y el estado emocional o social de los adolescentes.
Según el historiador Winfried Schleiner, la enfermedad resultó tan conocida que se convirtió en un recurso de la sátira política, la literatura y el teatro de la época.
Las jóvenes con “enfermedad verde” despertaron no solo preocupación médica, sino también comentarios mordaces y bromas sobre su situación personal y social. La descripción más difundida incluía rostros pálidos y “corazón tembloroso ante el más pequeño esfuerzo”.
De acuerdo con National Institutes of Health, la denominación proviene del griego chloros, que significa amarillo verdoso, resaltando el aspecto pálido de las afectadas. Los médicos del siglo XVI, como Johann Lange y Rodrigo a Castro, interpretaron la dolencia vinculándola a desequilibrios de los “humores” y atribuyeron su causa a la retención de “sangre mala” por la falta de actividad sexual o por vasos sanguíneos demasiado estrechos.
Ante la imposibilidad de recomendar el matrimonio para todas las jóvenes, sugerían sangrías o enemas como tratamiento alternativo, especialmente en el caso de mujeres consagradas a la vida religiosa.
La enfermedad permaneció ligada a la feminidad durante generaciones. Sin embargo, algunas obras literarias extendieron el término, en clave de burla, a hombres que no bebían alcohol ni tenían experiencia amorosa. Estos usos evidenciaron la carga simbólica y social del diagnóstico mucho más allá de cualquier base fisiológica comprobada.
Helen King, citada por Schleiner, detectó que menciones a la “green sickness” aparecieron en manuales médicos hasta los años 1920. No obstante, el diagnóstico desapareció del repertorio de enfermedades reconocidas durante el siglo XX. Las razones de este abandono se vinculan tanto al cambio en las costumbres sociales como a la comprensión médica de los síntomas.
De acuerdo a diversas investigaciones, médicos de la época confundieron manifestaciones de anemias reales con nociones sociales y morales relacionadas con la virginidad. La medicina moderna identifica la anemia como una afección causada por deficiencias nutricionales, enfermedades crónicas u otros motivos, sin vincularla al estado civil o a cuestiones morales.
Algunas crónicas y versos satíricos, como los referidos al duque de Monmouth, reforzaron la idea de que solo el matrimonio o las relaciones sexuales podían “curar” la enfermedad en las jóvenes.
Así se profundizó la estigmatización social sobre las mujeres solteras o quienes no deseaban contraer matrimonio, catalogándolas de enfermas por su estado.
A lo largo del tiempo, la noción de “enfermedad verde” funcionó como un reflejo de los prejuicios y el desconocimiento científico sobre la salud de las mujeres adolescentes.
El diagnóstico reflejó la interacción de factores culturales, médicos y religiosos en una época donde el acceso al conocimiento médico era limitado y dominado por creencias heredadas de la Antigüedad.
Actualmente, no existe ninguna evidencia que vincule la falta de matrimonio con enfermedades hematológicas. La desaparición del término “green sickness” y su olvido en la medicina contemporánea muestran cómo los diagnósticos pueden estar más influidos por valores sociales que por la evidencia científica.
Según especialistas como Helen King y Winfried Schleiner, el estudio de “enfermedad verde” permite comprender cómo la sociedad interpretó los síntomas de jóvenes mujeres y cómo la ciencia evolucionó al dejar atrás los mitos y avanzar hacia una comprensión basada en datos verificables y observación clínica.
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Antifa agitation turns violent in Germany, bolstering Trump admin’s foreign terror label
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A mass protest on Saturday filled with many activists from the radical organization Antifa, which President Donald Trump designated as a domestic terrorist organization, delayed the start of a conference for the right-wing populist German party Alternative for Germany (AfD) youth wing called Generation Deutschland.
Between 25,000 and 30,000 protesters turned out against the AfD youth convention in the central German city of Giessen, prompting the largest police contingent (6,000 officers) in the history of the state of Hesse.
The AfD co-leader Alice Weidel blasted the demonstrators at the city’s convention center. «What is being done out there – dear left-wingers, dear extremists, you need to look at yourselves – is something that is deeply undemocratic.»
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Two demonstrators jump over a crash barrier while a water cannon is deployed. Several thousand demonstrators protested against the founding of a new AfD youth organization on Saturday. Its predecessor, Junge Alternative, which had been classified as right-wing extremist, had dissolved itself. (Hannes P Albert/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images)
According to the Associated Press, officers used pepper spray after stones were thrown at them at one location, police said. They also used water cannons to clear a blockade by about 2,000 protesters after they ignored calls to leave. They did so again Saturday afternoon as a group tried to break through barriers toward the city’s convention center. Police said up to 6,000 officers were deployed, and 10 to 15 were slightly injured.
The former U.S. ambassador to Germany during the first administration, Richard Grenell, warned on X about the dangers of the anti-democratic left in the Federal Republic of Germany. He wrote:» The intolerant and violent Left is gaining ground in Germany. If they follow the U.S. left then they will promote deadly violence while also losing public support — and elections. But they won’t see the errors of their ways because the German left gets lots of support from the media in Germany. It’s publicly funded, too. The conservative media is small and timid — but growing fast.»
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Boris Rhein, the Christian Democratic Union governor of the state of Hesse, criticized the attacks on police and the attempt to torpedo the AfD youth event. «The use of violence and attempts to prevent assemblies through marches can never be democratic means,» said Rhein.
The AfD scored an impressive second place election result in February, securing 20.8% of the vote. However, the mainstream German parties refused to form a coalition with the AfD because of what they said were its extremist views.
Two demonstrators jump over a crash barrier while a water cannon is deployed. Several thousand demonstrators protested against the founding of a new AfD youth organization on Saturday. Its predecessor, Junge Alternative, which had been classified as right-wing extremist, had dissolved itself. (Hannes P Albert/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images)
The youth division of the AfD elected 28-year-old Jean-Pascal Hohm as its chairman. According to an article in the German paper Die Welt, a local intelligence report quoted him as expressing anti-immigrant and nationalist views. «We will fight resolutely for a genuine shift in migration policy that ensures Germany remains the homeland of Germans, «Hohm said at the start of the conference.
The creation of Generation Deutschland unfolded after Germany’s federal intelligence agency classified the previous AfD youth chapter, Young Alternative, as an «extremist organization» in 2023, causing its dissolution.
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AfD portrays itself as an anti-establishment force at a time of low trust in politicians. It first entered the national parliament in 2017 following the arrival of large numbers of migrants in the mid-2010s. Curbing migration remains its signature theme, but it has shown a talent for capitalizing on discontent about other issues too. That was reflected in leaders’ confident tone Saturday.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
germany,antifa,europe,terrorism
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