Los árabes lo conocen como Bab as-Salam, la “Puerta de la Paz”, pero la guerra en curso en Medio Oriente lo convierte en un elemento clave del conflicto entre Irán y la coalición conformada por Israel y Estados Unidos.

El estratégico estrecho de Ormuz está a un paso de transformarse en el centro de la desesperada estrategia bélica del gobierno de los ayatollah. Su anunciado cierre amenaza con provocar una crisis en el mercado petrolero mundial y una fuerte e inédita alza en el precio del barril de crudo. Según analistas, podría llegar hasta los 100 dólares.

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El paso marítimo entre Irán y Omán es clave. Por allí circula más del 20% del tráfico petrolero y gasífero del mundo. Gran parte de la producción de crudo de Arabia Saudita, Irak, Kuwait, Bahréin, Qatar y los Emiratos Árabes Unidos pasa por ahí. Se trata de unos 19 millones de barriles diarios transportados por un promedio de 13 buques por día. De hecho, el gobierno qatarí depende en forma casi total del estrecho.

Pero por ahí transita también gran parte de las exportaciones iraníes. Su cierre es una decisión extrema con profundas implicaciones internas en tiempos de guerra.

Además, hay un elemento extra a tener en cuenta: China se vería perjudicada por su cierre. El gobierno de Beijing es el principal beneficiario de las exportaciones energéticas a través del paso de Ormuz, especialmente iraníes. China tiene una gran influencia en Teherán.

¿Dónde queda el estrecho de Ormuz y por qué es tan importante?

El estrecho de Ormuz está ubicado entre el Golfo de Omán y el Golfo Pérsico. En la costa norte está el territorio iraní. En el sur se encuentra la península omaní de Musandam. Ambos países están separados por una lengua de mar de apenas 45 kilómetros.

Después de tres días de guerra, el comandante de la Guardia Revolucionaria de Irán anunció que el Estrecho de Ormuz está cerrado y advirtió que prenderá fuego a cualquier barco que intente pasar, según informaron los medios iraníes.

“Incendiaremos cualquier barco que intente pasar por el estrecho de Ormuz”, dijo el general Sardar Jabbari en una publicación en el canal de Telegram de la Guardia iraní y alertó: “También atacaremos los oleoductos y no permitiremos que salga ni una sola gota de petróleo de la región. El precio del petróleo alcanzará los 200 dólares en los próximos días”, alertó.

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No sería la primera vez que buques petroleos son atacados en la región.

Ya lo hizo su grupo proxy yemení, el de los rebeldes hutíes, cuando a fines de 2023 empezó a atacar a buques y cargueros que atravesaban el Mar Rojo, otra área vital en la región, en solidaridad con Gaza. Entonces se paralizó el comercio en ese paso clave del tráfico de mercaderías internacional.

¿Qué pasa con el precio del petróleo?

El petróleo Brent para entrega en mayo escaló este lunes hasta situarse en los 77,74 dólares por barril al cierre de la sesión del Mercado de Futuros de Londres, ante los temores de escasez de suministro por la guerra.

El barril de crudo del mar del Norte, de referencia en Europa, avanzó 4,87 dólares en el Intercontinental Exchange londinense (ICE) en comparación al cierre de la sesión del pasado viernes, cuando terminó en 72,87 dólares.

El crudo reaccionó al alza y alcanzó su nivel más alto de los últimos ocho meses tras el estallido de la guerra.

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El sentimiento alcista, que llegó a superar los 80 dólares horas antes, aunque algo más moderado, predominó entre los inversores ante los temores de escasez de suministro por el aumento de las tensiones en Oriente Medio y pendiente de la evolución del conflicto en Irán, uno de los principales productores de crudo de la OPEP+ y que controla el estrecho de Ormuz.

Algunos analistas vaticinan que, de cerrarse por completo y durante un tiempo prolongado ese paso clave, los precios del petróleo podrían llegar a alcanzar hasta los 100 dólares por barril, en el peor de los escenarios.

Además del petróleo, los precios del gas también se incrementaron cerca de un 45% hoy después de que Qatar cerrase la mayor refinería de gas natural licuado del mundo, tras haber sido atacada por drones iraníes, afectando al 20% de la producción a nivel global.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., described the recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran as a defensive measure, saying, «Israel was determined to act with or without us» following a classified briefing on Monday evening.

Johnson told reporters after the briefing that Israel viewed Iran’s capabilities as an existential threat and was prepared to conduct operations regardless of U.S. participation. He said Israel’s assessment shaped American deliberations, and it was «determined to act in their own defense here, with or without American support.»

The speaker said administration officials had to weigh risks to U.S. forces, regional assets and interests before supporting the operation. 

«They had to evaluate the threats to the U.S., to our troops, to our installations, to our assets in the region and beyond. And they determined, because of the intelligence that we had, that a coordinated response was necessary,» Johnson said.

Johnson said he guarantees that if the U.S. had not acted, the Trump administration would have been hauled in by Congress and asked why they waited if they had «existential intelligence, knowing that that would happen.»

«I am convinced that they did the right thing,» he said.

Rubio confirmed that Israel was prepared to act against Iran and said the president «made a very wise decision.»  

«We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces,» he told reporters. «And we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.»

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Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., a top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, emerged from the briefing and said he did not believe there was an «imminent threat» prior to Saturday’s strikes. 

«There was no imminent threat to the United States of America by the Iranians. It was a threat to Israel,» he said. «We equate a threat to Israel is the equivalent of an imminent threat to the United States. Then we are in uncharted territory.» 

«We have seen the goals for this operation change now, I believe 4 or 5 times,» he went on.

Plumes of smoke from two simultaneous strikes rise over Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 2, 2026. (Mohsen Ganji/AP Photo)

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Rubio insisted the operation was not about Iranian regime change but about taking out its capabilities as a threat to the region – focused on ballistic missiles and naval capacity. 

He did not say whether strikes would extend to nuclear facilities.

«I do believe there is more than adequate justification for our American and Israeli actions,» Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., told reporters he believes there is «more than adequate justification for our American and Israeli actions,» without saying more.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast, R-Fla., told Fox News Digital in an interview afterward that he felt administration officials did a good job of illustrating the threat level faced by the U.S. in the days leading up to the strikes.

«I think that’s largely been very open source. The president laid that out, you know, very clearly. It does go beyond that to what I can’t get into, but it goes beyond that. I’m sure it’ll come out in the administration’s good time, but it’s not for me to say,» Mast said.

Smoke rises in Tehran following an explosion on March 2, 2026, amid ongoing U.S. and Israeli military strikes. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

«But the more immediate nature of threats — I’m going through the negotiations with [Special Envoy Steve Witkoff], [Jared Kushner], Rubio, others that were a part of having those conversations and throughout that 10-day window of, you know, let’s call it countdown to make a deal, the threats that were going on in that window is probably the high-side information that you have.»

He also said there was a lot of daylight between what Democrats and Republicans in the briefing considered an «imminent threat.»

«It’s like, for me as a soldier, right, if I see an enemy machine gun nest, that to me, given that it’s an enemy machine gun nest, is an imminent threat,» Mast said. «To Democrats, unless that machine gun is burning up its barrels firing at you, it’s not yet an imminent threat. And those are the two separate ways that we’re looking at it.».

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On February 26th, the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran in coordination with Israel. The offensive campaign has resulted in the death of 49 top Iranian leaders, including the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Six U.S. service members have lost their lives in Iranian counterattacks. 

The opening phase of the conflict struck more than 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours, according to Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. American B-2 bombers flew 37-hour round-trip missions from the continental United States to hit underground facilities with penetrating munitions, he added.

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Iran is conducting «indiscriminate» targeting of vessels across the Gulf of Oman and the wider Persian Gulf following the launch of U.S.-Israeli strikes under Operation Epic Fury, according to a maritime intelligence firm.

Windward AI noted the sanctioned Palau-flagged tanker Skylight was hit as the conflict across the Middle East entered its second day, with the tanker also holding Iranian nationals among the crew and ties to the regime.

«Analysis of vessel affiliations, targeting patterns, and cargo data points to a strategy of indiscriminate area denial — not precision targeting — aimed at demonstrating Iran’s capability to disrupt the Strait and deter commercial shipping,» the firm said Monday.

Iran has been retaliating with missiles and drones targeting U.S. and allied positions across the region, including in Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Gulf of Oman to the Persian Gulf, is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.

While three other vessels were reported attacked since the hostilities escalated Feb. 28, Windward described Skylight as «the highest-risk vessel in the group and the most anomalous target.»

The UKMTO Operation Centre also later confirmed attacks on Skylight, MKD Vyom and Hercules Star, warning of significant military activity across the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, the North Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

Skylight had been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control in December 2025, and was used to transport Iranian petroleum products, according to reports.

It was operated by United Arab Emirates-based Red Sea Ship Management LLC, which Windward noted has documented ties to front companies linked to Iran’s Ministry of Defense.

The vessel had been at anchor since Feb. 22 and carried 20 crew members — 15 Indians and five Iranians.

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A satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supply, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.  (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2025/Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

«The Skylight anomaly — striking a vessel with an Iranian crew, Iranian operational ties, and active OFAC sanctions — is the single strongest piece of evidence against deliberate targeting by affiliation,» Windward said.

Reuters also reported March 1 that the Palau-flagged tanker was hit off Oman’s Musandam Peninsula in the Gulf of Oman, injuring four.

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Oman’s Maritime Security Center said in a post on X that Skylight was attacked about 5 nautical miles north of Khasab Port, caught fire and was evacuated.

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